Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
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Post by Tony Otim on Apr 22, 2022 17:51:19 GMT
LEWES DC; Peacehaven West (Con resigned)
Candidates
ATKINS, Holly (Green)
CLARKSON, Ciarron (Labour)
LEE, Elizabeth Wallace (Liberal Democrat)
SANDERSON, Katie Alexandra (Conservative)
2019: Con 329, 323; Ind 270, 152; UKIP 233; Grn 222, 164; LD 209
Katie Sanderson was the unsuccessful Conservative candidate for Peacehaven division (a Labour gain) in May last year. Ciarron Clarkson was the Labour candidate for that division in 2017.
Current Council: Con 18; LD 9; Grn 8; Lab 3; Ind Grp 2; 1 vacancy
WAVERLEY DC; Frensham, Dockenfield & Tilford (Con died)
Candidates:
MUNRO, David John (Independent)
NASIR, Nabeel Ahmed (Conservative)
RYLAND, Susan Mary (Green)
2019: Con 683, 590; Grn 454; Lab 228
2015: 2 x Con unopp
2011: 2 xCon unopp
2007: Con 1151, 1122; LD 263
2003: Con 907, 848; LD 348, 321
Susan Ryland was the Green candidate in 2019.
Current Council: Con 20; Farnham Residents 15; LD 15; Grn 2; Lab 2; Ind 1; 2 vacancies
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
Posts: 9,729
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Post by Chris from Brum on Apr 22, 2022 17:54:39 GMT
Peacehaven has the possibility to be extremely competitive! The absence of independents and UKIP means a lot of votes are up for grabs.
Disappointed to see no LD candidate in Waverley.
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
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Post by Tony Otim on Apr 22, 2022 17:59:36 GMT
Peacehaven has the possibility to be extremely competitive! Potentially, yes, although last May Labour squeezed the Green and Lib Dem votes to almost nothing in order to narrowly take the larger division off the Tories. Admittedly both Lib Dems and Greens probably had attention on other divisions at the time. |
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
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Post by Tony Otim on Apr 22, 2022 18:01:17 GMT
Disappointed to see no LD candidate in Waverley. I think Terry Weldon has indicated some kind of local agreement and the Lib Dems will have a candidate in the other upcoming by-election there without Green opposition. |
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Post by evergreenadam on Apr 22, 2022 21:20:51 GMT
Peacehaven has the possibility to be extremely competitive! The absence of independents and UKIP means a lot of votes are up for grabs. Disappointed to see no LD candidate in Waverley. If Frensham is not a Con hold that would represent an enormous turn around given the size of previous Con majorities in that ward. |
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Post by evergreenadam on Apr 22, 2022 21:22:45 GMT
Peacehaven has the possibility to be extremely competitive! The absence of independents and UKIP means a lot of votes are up for grabs. Disappointed to see no LD candidate in Waverley. Peacehaven will indeed be very interesting to see if there are further indications of a Greater Brighton effect along the Sussex coast - see also Worthing. |
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nick10
Forum Regular
[k4r]
Posts: 296 
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Post by nick10 on Apr 22, 2022 22:16:19 GMT
The Independent candidate in Waverley is a former Conservative borough and county councillor who, until his defeat last year after leaving the Conservatives, was the Surrey Police Commissioner.
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Terry Weldon
Lib Dem
Councilor, Waverley BC and Haslemere TC. Lifelong liberal, in S Africa and now UK
Posts: 307
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Post by Terry Weldon on Apr 24, 2022 13:01:36 GMT
Disappointed to see no LD candidate in Waverley. I think Terry Weldon has indicated some kind of local agreement and the Lib Dems will have a candidate in the other upcoming by-election there without Green opposition. Correct. On both Waverley BC and Haslemere TC (which adjoins Frensham/Churt) Greens and LibDem work well together in LD led rainbow coalitions, having taken control from overwhelmingly Con dominated administrations in 2019. Our assessment was that in current conditions a single candidate would have at least the possibility of gaining a seat off the Tories, and the Greens have the better chance. (Their candidate is a respected local parish councillor). A further factor clinching the deal is that we now have a golden opportunity for a LibDem gain in a forthcoming Hindhead ward BC by-election (not yet called), in the portion of Haslemere immediately adjacent to Churt. The Greens will not contest Hindhead, so between us we have the opportunity of two possible Waverley gains in reasonably quick succession. Adding to the interest, is that the independent candidate David Munro was a Conservative PCC for Surrey until he was deselected for the 2021 election. He has some personal following, and is likely to attract some votes away from the Tories. It will also not help the Con campaign that while both opposition candidates give addresses inside the ward, their candidate has one outside, in Farnham. |
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Post by matureleft on May 8, 2022 10:12:27 GMT
Peacehaven has the possibility to be extremely competitive! The absence of independents and UKIP means a lot of votes are up for grabs. Disappointed to see no LD candidate in Waverley. Peacehaven will indeed be very interesting to see if there are further indications of a Greater Brighton effect along the Sussex coast - see also Worthing. Much closer than that, see the 5 May by-election in Rottingdean Coastal which was a Labour gain. |
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Post by shadsy on May 9, 2022 11:45:13 GMT
Smarkets opening win chances for Peacehaven West:  |
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Terry Weldon
Lib Dem
Councilor, Waverley BC and Haslemere TC. Lifelong liberal, in S Africa and now UK
Posts: 307
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Post by Terry Weldon on May 10, 2022 19:27:29 GMT
With explicit support from LibDems. local Greens are optimistic. Local Greens tell me that feedback on the ground has been "positive". That is born out by the limited leafleting that I did for them yesterday.
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Post by andrewp on May 10, 2022 19:59:05 GMT
With explicit support from LibDems. local Greens are optimistic. Local Greens tell me that feedback on the ground has been "positive". That is born out by the limited leafleting that I did for them yesterday. In Waverley or Peacehaven? Waverley I assume. |
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 9,140
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Post by cogload on May 11, 2022 14:27:27 GMT
Waverley.
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Post by phil156 on May 11, 2022 14:31:05 GMT
Both of the wards are counting after 10pm
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Post by andrew111 on May 11, 2022 23:22:01 GMT
Both of the wards are counting after 10pm I certainly hope so! |
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Post by matureleft on May 12, 2022 4:54:43 GMT
Lewes DC currently has a Green/LD/Lab + an independent administration. The agreement has its limits since the 3 parties are contesting this. While Labour didn’t stand in this ward in 2019 it won seats in two of the neighbouring wards then in highly fragmented results.
The Conservative, a young woman of 24, is a town councillor for that Peacehaven ward winning the seat over Labour in a by-election last year. The Labour candidate lives just outside the ward and is on the Telscombe Cliffs council. The LD appears to live in Saltdean, nearby, while the Green seems to live in Lewes. It’s a tiny ward and I’d be surprised if local residence and personal activism weren’t pretty important!
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Post by yellowperil on May 12, 2022 7:39:59 GMT
A few years ago I knew the area of the Waverley by-election pretty well- Frensham a bit as walking country, and particularly Tilford where my son used to play , and my then daughter-in- law scored, for the village cricket team. He still has a nice water colour on his walls at home of a match in progress at Tilford- an absolutely stereotypical English summer scene. It would have been difficult to envisage Tilford as anything but very traditional Tory -it was the scene I conjured up in my mind when I heard John Major's sentimental waffle about spinsters cycling to church, etc, all those years ago. It would be really splendid to see that area go Green- it's the way a lot of such quintessential English places are going that were once the bedrock of Toryism-Chilham in my own patch is another such.
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Post by John Chanin on May 12, 2022 8:49:07 GMT
Lewes DC currently has a Green/LD/Lab + an independent administration. The agreement has its limits since the 3 parties are contesting this. While Labour didn’t stand in this ward in 2019 it won seats in two of the neighbouring wards then in highly fragmented results. The Conservative, a young woman of 24, is a town councillor for that Peacehaven ward winning the seat over Labour in a by-election last year. The Labour candidate lives just outside the ward and is on the Telscombe Cliffs council. The LD appears to live in Saltdean, nearby, while the Green seems to live in Lewes. It’s a tiny ward and I’d be surprised if local residence and personal activism weren’t pretty important! The ward contains the centre of Peacehaven (such as it is) around the shopping centre, although much of the commercial activity is along the main coast road. |
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timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823
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Post by timmullen1 on May 12, 2022 20:36:32 GMT
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Terry Weldon
Lib Dem
Councilor, Waverley BC and Haslemere TC. Lifelong liberal, in S Africa and now UK
Posts: 307
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Post by Terry Weldon on May 12, 2022 22:01:03 GMT
A few years ago I knew the area of the Waverley by-election pretty well- Frensham a bit as walking country, and particularly Tilford where my son used to play , and my then daughter-in- law scored, for the village cricket team. He still has a nice water colour on his walls at home of a match in progress at Tilford- an absolutely stereotypical English summer scene. It would have been difficult to envisage Tilford as anything but very traditional Tory -it was the scene I conjured up in my mind when I heard John Major's sentimental waffle about spinsters cycling to church, etc, all those years ago. It would be really splendid to see that area go Green- it's the way a lot of such quintessential English places are going that were once the bedrock of Toryism-Chilham in my own patch is another such. The problem for the Tories now, is that they are no longer the traditional party. Out doorknocking in Hindhead this evening (next door to Frensham/Churt) once again I was coming up against "lifelong traditional" Tories insisting that they cannot vote for the present lot, and other traditional swing voters put off by "lies". |
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