Prediction Competition March 2022

[johnloony]

Herefordshire: Con 38 IndF 34 IndD 28
Hertfordshire: LD 48 Con 37 Grn 15 CPA 2
North Hertfordshire: LD 55 Con 29 Grn 15 CPA 1
Rutland: Con 60 Grn 40

[dundas]

Herefordshire Con 36.8 Ind D 38.6 Ind F 24.6

Hertforshire, Hitchin: CPA: 1.9 Green 7.5 Con 41.4 Lib Dem 49.2

North Hertfordshire, Hitchin CPA: 1.5 Green 6.5 Con 37.8 Lib Dem 54.2

Rutland: Con 66.6 Green 33.4

[greenhert]

Herefordshire UA, Bromyard West: Independent (Ferguson) 39, Conservative 38, Independent (Davies) 23. Independent gain from It's Our County.
Hertfordshire CC, Hitchin South: Liberal Democrats 51, Conservative 38, Green 9, Christian People's Alliance 2.
North Hertfordshire DC, Hitchin Highbury: Liberal Democrats 55, Conservative 33, Green 11, Christian People's Alliance 1.
Rutland UA, Ryall: Green 51, Conservative 49. Green gain from Conservative.

[Richard Cromwell]

Ryhall & Casterton, Rutland

CON	64%
GRN	36%

Hitchin Highbury, North Hertfordshire

LDM	55%
CON	20%
GRN	19%
CPA	6%

Hitchin South, Hertfordshire

LDM	45%
CON	29%
GRN	20%
CPA	6%

Bromyard West, Herefordshire

Nick Ferguson	40%
CON	33%
Clare Davies	20%

[andrewp]

Herefordshire. Bromyard West. Ferguson 42, Con 32, Davies 26
Hertfordshire. Hitchin South. LD 51, Con 36, Lab 12, CPA 1
North Hertfordshire, Hitchin Highbury. LD 58, Con 29, Lab 12, CPA 1
Rutland. Ryhall and Casterton. Green 53, Con 47

[Tony Otim]

Herefordshire: Ferguson 41.0; Con 38.1; Davies 20.9
Hertfordshire: LD 48.5; Con 35.7; Grn 14.7; CPA 1.1
North Herts: LD 60.2; Con 25.2; Grn 13.2; CPA 1.4
Rutland: Con 51.2; Grn 48.8

[peterl]

Herefordshire: Ferguson 43.3; Con 34.5; Davies 22.2
Hertfordshire: LD 51.1; Con 30.8; Green 16.1; CPA 2.0
North Hertfordshire: LD 62.4; Con 21.2; Green 14.5; CPA 1.9
Rutland: Green 52.2; Con 47.8

[Robert Waller]

Herefordshire, Bromyard West. Ferguson 33, Con 33, Davies 34

Hertfordshire, Hitchin South. LD 50, Con 37, Green 12, CPA 1

North Hertfordshire, Hitchin Highbury. LD 58, Con 29, Green 12, CPA 1

Rutland, Ryhall and Casterton. Green 46, Con 54

[Andrew_S]

Herefordshire: Con 36, Ind Davies 34, Ind Ferguson 30
Hertfordshire: LD 49, Con 36, Grn 13, CPA 2
North Herts: LD 54, Con 30, Grn 14, CPA 2
Rutland: Con 56, Grn 44

[rightleaning]

Herefordshire, Bromyard West. Con 38, Ferguson 33, Davies 29

Hertfordshire, Hitchin South. LD 49, Con 38, Green 12, CPA 1

North Hertfordshire, Hitchin Highbury. LD 55, Con 32, Green 12, CPA 1

Rutland, Ryhall and Casterton. Con 58, Green 42,

[iainbhx]

Herefordshire UA, Bromyard West: Ind Ferguson 40, Con 34, Ind Davies 26
Hertfordshire CC, Hitchin South: LDm 45, Con 39, Grn 15, CPA 1
North Herts DC, Hitchin Highbury: LDm 60, Con 27, Grn 12, CPA 1
Rutland UA, Ryhall & Casterton: Con 55, Grn 45

[robbienicoll]

13 entries this week, with johnloony returning and manchesterman missing. All on time, with Richard Cromwell receiving 7 faults and andykernow receiving 3 for going under in Herefordshire and Hertfordshire respectively, and johnloony receiving 2 for going over in Hertfordshire. Andrewp also had a phantom Labour candidate in place of the Green in both the county and district Hertfordshire contests, which had a prediction of 12 for each. This therefore means 2x12 faults with both falling under the 20 fault cap on this type of infringement introduced this year.

Bromyard West, Herefordshire: 7 have Ind (Ferguson) win, with AJS, johnloony and Right Leaning Conservative gain and andykernow, dundas and Robert Waller Ind (Davies) win.
Hitchin South, Hertfordshire: 100% Liberal Democrat hold, with majorities ranging from 6% (iainbhx) to 20.3% (peterl).
Hitchin Highbury, North Hertfordshire: 100% Liberal Democrat hold, with majorities ranging from 16.4% (dundas) to 41.2% (peterl).
Ryhall and Casterton, Rutland: 8 Conservative hold, with andrewp, andykernow, greenhert, kevinf and peterl Green gain.

Results available at - docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1HrvXswWetdPBYEUI07n8BjveLG7I_1JCOK7so-xQhDg/edit?usp=sharing - good luck to all!

[Robert Waller]

Awaiting the properly added up results, my rough figures suggest that congrats are due to Andy Kernow, whose bold prediction for Bromyard has, I think, taken him to the weekly victory! I myself also thought Davies would win but lacked the courage and conviction to predict it by more than a hedging bare margin.

Kevin F and Peter L appear to have done very well in the other predictions. It is really good to see some of the more recent additions to the competition high up in the lists.

[robbienicoll]

Mar 11, 2022 10:34:23 GMT Robert Waller said:

Awaiting the properly added up results, my rough figures suggest that congrats are due to Andy Kernow, whose bold prediction for Bromyard has, I think, taken him to the weekly victory! I myself also thought Davies would win but lacked the courage and conviction to predict it by more than a hedging bare margin.

Kevin F and Peter L appear to have done very well in the other predictions. It is really good to see some of the more recent additions to the competition high up in the lists.

That's the results now completed, nothing to add beyond congratulating yourself for taking the top spot for the month!

[johnloony]

What’s the point of us doing the prediction competition if the voters don’t co-operate by voting in the correct proportions? I think the Electoral Commission should step in and tackle this emergency.

[grahammurray]

Mar 11, 2022 13:34:45 GMT johnloony said:

What’s the point of us doing the prediction competition if the voters don’t co-operate by voting in the correct proportions? I think the Electoral Commission should step in and tackle this emergency.

That is pretty much Conservative Party policy.

[johnloony]

17th March: I predict:

Grimethwaite, Townton Central
Lab 36%
Con 27%
Green 18%
Lib Dem 9%
Independent 4%
CPA 3%
WEP 2%
TUSC 1%

Bumpkinshire CC, Lesser Dribbling
Con 52%
Ind Bobbin 19%
LD 11%
Ind Armbrain 8%
Green 5%
Dribbling People First 3%
Dribbling Residents Party 1.9%
Dribbling Workers’ and Peasants’ Revolutionary Front 0.1%

[kevinf]

OK, let’s get March 24th started.
Horsham:
LD 46, Con 32, Green 12, Lab 10
Northumberland:
Lab 45, Con 38, Green 9, LD 8
Test Valley:
LD 62, Con 38
Thanet:
Lab 50, Con 42, Thanet Ind 8

[dundas]

Horsham LD 57, Con 29 Lab 10 Green 4
Northumberland Lab 40 Con 37 LD 20 Green 3
Test Valley LD 75 Con 25
Thanet: Lab 40 Thanet Ind 33 Con 27

[Tony Otim]

Horsham: LD 48.7; Con 34.3; Grn 9.6; Lab 7.4
Northumberland: Con 43.6; Lab 40.5; LD 11.6; Grn 4.3
Test Valley: LD 70.5; Con 29.5
Thanet: Lab 45.6; Con 30.3; Thanet 24.1