Prediction Competition March 2022

[peterl]

March 3rd

EAST LINDSEY DC; Halton Holegate
Conservative 62
Labour 38

ESSEX CC; Rayleigh North
Liberal Democrat 38
Conservative 34
Lawmon 19
Labour 9

NEW FOREST DC; Hythe West & Langdown
Liberal Democrat 38
Conservative 32
Kitcher 22
Labour 8

ROCHFORD DC; Downhall & Rawreth
Liberal Democrat 50
Conservative 39
Labour 11

SEVENOAKS DC; Brasted, Chevening & Sundridge
Conservative 47
Liberal Democrat 46
Labour 7

SOUTH SOMERSET DC; Neroche
Conservative 44
Liberal Democrat 36
Green 12
Labour 8

SOUTHEND-ON-SEA UA; Southchurch
Conservative 50
Labour 25
Badger 11
Green 8
Liberal Democrat 6

SUNDERLAND MBC; Redhill
Labour 44
Conservative 36
UKIP 10
Green 7
Liberal Democrat 3

[robbienicoll]

There appears to be 19 by-elections during March.

- 8 by-elections on 3 March
- 4 on 10 March
- 4 on 24 March
- 3 on 31 March

11 by-elections are for District Councils, one of which was last contested in a 2021 by-election with the last regular election in 2019, 2 last contested in 2021 and the remaining 8 in 2019
4 are for Unitary Authorities, one of which was last contested in a 2021 by-election with the last regular election in 2019, one last contested in a September 2019 by election and the last regular election in May 2019, and the remaining 2 in 2021
2 are for a County Council last contested in 2021
2 are for a Metropolitan Borough last contested in 2021

Conservatives defend 7 of the by-election seats, 1 following the death of the previous councillor and 6 a resignation, 1 of which was sitting as an Independent
Liberal Democrats defend 7 seats, 4 following the death of the previous councillor and 3 a resignation
Labour defend 1 seat following a disqualification
UKIP defend 1 seat, although the previous councillor was sitting as an Independent, following a resignation
Independents defend 1 seat following a resignation

With all SOPNs now published, there is a full slate of 19 Conservative candidates, 14 Labour and Liberal Democrats, 9 Greens, 2 Christian People’s Alliance, 2 Yorkshire Party, and 1 apiece for UKIP and Thanet Independents together with 5 Independents and 1 No Description contesting 5 seats
- a total of 68 candidates for 19 seats.

Predictions on this thread at 9.00am on the day of the election.

[Richard Cromwell]

Redhill, Sunderland

LAB	56%
CON	21%
UKIP	18%
LDM	4%
GRN	1%

Neroche, South Somerset

CON	70%
LDM	19%
LAB	10%
GRN	1%

Halton Holegate, East Lindsey

CON	58%
LAB	42%

Southchurch, Southend-on-Sea

CON	54%
LAB	23%
IND	10%
LDM	9%
GRN	4%

Brasted, Chevening and Sundridge, Sevenoaks

CON	64%
LAB	32%
LDM	4%

Hythe West & Langdown, New Forest

LDM	55%
CON	36%
LAB	8%
IND	1%

Downhall & Rawreth, Rochford

LDM	64%
CON	22%
LAB	14%

Rayleigh North, Essex

LDM	47%
CON	35%
LAB	16%
IND	2%

[kevinf]

East Lindsey. Con 61. Lab 39
Essex. LD 45 Con 25 Ind 20 Lab 10
New Forest. LD 49 Con 37 Lab 10. ND. 4
Rockford. LD 65 Con 28 Lab 7
Sevenoaks. Con 50 LD 43 Lab 7
South Somerset. Con 48 LD 35. Green 12. Lab 5
Southend. Con 40. Lab 23 Ind 15 LD 12 Green 10
Sunderland. Lab 50 Con 29 LD 9 Green 7 Ukip 5

[dundas]

East Lindsay, Holegate
Conservative: 66.6
Labour: 33.3


Essex, Rayleigh North
Ind: 40
Con: 30
Lib Dem: 25
Lab: 5

New Forest: Hythe West and Langdown
Lib Dem: 50
Con: 40
Ind: 8
Lab: 2

Rochford: Downhall and Rawreth
Lib Dem: 70
Con: 22
Lab: 8

Sevenoaks Brasted, Chevening and Sundridge
Lib Dem: 45 Gain
Con: 42
Lab: 8

South Somerset: Neroche
Con: 65
Green: 20
Lib Dem: 15
Lab: 5

Southend Southchurch
Con: 63
Lab: 15
Ind: 10
Green: 9
Lib Dem: 3

Sunderland Redhill
Con: 37 GAIN
Lab: 30
Lib Dem: 20
Green: 8
UKIP: 5

[Tony Otim]

East Lindsey: Con 63.2, Lab 36.8
Essex: LD 42.8, Con 37.7, Lawmon 12.3, Lab 7.2
New Forest: LD 54.6, Con 31.8, Lab 9.5, Kitcher 4.1
Rochford: LD 66.1, Con 24.3, Lab 9.6
Sevenoaks: Con 47.0, LD42.5, Lab 10.5
South Somerset: Con 49.4, LD 27.2, Grn 13.7, Lab 9.7
Southend Con 54.1, Lab 20.9, Badger 12.8, Grn 8.6, LD 3.6
Sunderland: Lab 38.1, LD 30.7, Con 16.6, UKIP 10.5, Grn 4.1

[manchesterman]

EAST LINDSEY DC; Halton Holegate
Conservative 65
Labour 35

ESSEX CC; Rayleigh North
Liberal Democrat 34
Conservative 33
Lawmon 25
Labour 8

NEW FOREST DC; Hythe West & Langdown
Liberal Democrat 48
Conservative 38
Kitcher 7
Labour 7

ROCHFORD DC; Downhall & Rawreth
Liberal Democrat 56
Conservative 36
Labour 8

SEVENOAKS DC; Brasted, Chevening & Sundridge
Conservative 50
Liberal Democrat 41
Labour 9

SOUTH SOMERSET DC; Neroche
Conservative 49
Liberal Democrat 25
Green 18
Labour 8

SOUTHEND-ON-SEA UA; Southchurch
Conservative 52
Labour 20
Badger 12
Green 8
Liberal Democrat 8

SUNDERLAND MBC; Redhill
Labour 40
Conservative 35
Liberal Democrat 16
Green 5
UKIP 4

[andrewp]

East Lindsey. Halton Holegate Con 72, Lab 28
Essex. Rayleigh North. LD 40, Con 32, Ind 20. Lab 8
New Forest. Hythe West and Langdown. LD 50, Con 33, Ind 9, Lab 8
Rochford. Downhall and Rawreth. LD 62, Con 28, Lab 10
Sevenoaks, Brasted, Chevening and Sundridge. Con 48, LD 46, Lab 6
South Somerset. Neroche, Con 45, LD 38, Green 10, Lab 7
Southend on Sea, Southchurch. Con 52, Lab 20, Ind 12, Green 10, LD 6
Sunderland. Redhill. LD 37, Lab 36, Con 17, UKIP 7, Green 3

[greenhert]

East Lindsey DC, Halton Holegate: Conservative 67, Labour 33.
Essex CC, Rayleigh North: Liberal Democrats 51, Conservative 34, Independent (Lammon) 8, Labour 7.
New Forest DC, Hythe West & Langdown: Liberal Democrats 52, Conservative 36, Labour 8, Matthew Kitcher (No Description) 4.
Rochford DC, Downhall & Rawreth: Liberal Democrats 60, Conservative 30, Labour 10.
Sevenoaks DC, Brasted, Chevening & Sundridge: Conservative 54, Liberal Democrats 36, Labour 10.
South Somerset DC, Neroche: Conservative 60, Liberal Democrats 22, Green 10, Labour 8.
Southend-on-Sea UA, Southchurch: Conservative 50, Labour 21, Independent (Badger) 14, Liberal Democrats 9, Green 6.
Sunderland MBC, Redhill: Labour 45, Conservative 37, Liberal Democrats 7, Green 6, UKIP 5.

[andykernow]

EAST LINDSEY - Halton - Con Gain from Ind

Conservative - 63%
Labour - 37%

ESSEX - Rayleigh - Lib Dem Hold

Liberal Democrat - 48%
Conservative - 38%
Independent - 8%
Labour - 6%

NEW FOREST - Hythe - Lib Dem Hold

Liberal Democrat - 62%
Conservative - 28%
Labour - 5.1%
No Description - 4.9%

ROCHFORD - Downhall - Lib Dem Hold

Liberal Democrat - 65%
Conservative - 24%
Labour - 11%

SEVENOAKS - Brasted - Lib Dem Gain from Con

Liberal Democrat - 46%
Conservative - 44%
Labour - 10%

SOUTH SOMERSET - Neroche - Con Hold

Conservative - 41%
Liberal Democrat - 34%
Green - 17%
Labour - 8%

SOUTHEND - Southchurch - Con Hold

Conservative - 58%
Independent - 15%
Liberal Democrat - 12%
Labour - 10%
Green - 5%

SUNDERLAND - Redhill - Labour Gain from UKIP

Labour - 42%
Conservative - 20%
Liberal Democrat - 16%
UKIP - 12%
Green - 10%

[Robert Waller]

East Lindsey, Halton Holegate. Con 69, Lab 31

Essex, Rayleigh North. LD 45, Con 28, Ind 19. Lab 8

New Forest, Hythe West and Langdown. LD 55, Con 31, Ind 7, Lab 7

Rochford, Downhall and Rawreth. LD 62, Con 29, Lab 9

Sevenoaks, Brasted, Chevening and Sundridge. Con 52, LD 43, Lab 5

South Somerset, Neroche. Con 50, LD 33, Green 10, Lab 7

Southend on Sea, Southchurch. Con 50, Lab 18, Ind 18, Green 8, LD 6

Sunderland. Redhill. Lab 37, LD 33, Con 22, UKIP 4, Green 4

[Andrew_S]

East Lindsey: Con 70, Lab 30
Essex: Con 40, LD 35, Ind 15, Lab 10
New Forest: LD 48, Con 38, Lab 9, ND 5
Rochford: LD 50, Con 40, Lab 10
Sevenoaks: Con 49, LD 42, Lab 9
South Somerset: Con 40, LD 33, Grn 20, Lab 7
Southend: Con 50, Ind 18, Grn 16, Lab 13, LD 3
Sunderland: Lab 55, Con 20, Grn 10, LD 10, UKIP 5

[rightleaning]

East Lindsey. Halton Holegate Con 74, Lab 26
Essex. Rayleigh North. Con 44, LD 39, Lab 12, Ind 5.
New Forest. Hythe West and Langdown. LD 60, Con 30, Lab 8, ND 2
Rochford. Downhall and Rawreth. LD 55, Con 32, Lab 13
Sevenoaks, Brasted, Chevening and Sundridge. LD 48, Con 44, Lab 8
South Somerset. Neroche, Con 50, LD 38, Lab 7, Green 5
Southend on Sea, Southchurch. Con 58, Lab 20, Ind 9, Green 8, LD 5
Sunderland. Redhill. LD 39, Lab 36, Con 15, Green 8, UKIP 2,

[iainbhx]

East Lindsey DC, Halton Holegate : Con 66 Lab 34
Essex CC, Rayleigh North: Con 44 LDm 40 Ind 9 Lab 7
New Forest DC, Hythe West & Langdown: LDm 51 Con 33 Ind 10 Lab 6
Rochford DC, Downhall & Rawtreth: LDm 69 Con 23 Lab 8
Sevenoaks DC, Brasted, Chevening & Sundridge: Con 48 LDm 45 Lab 7
South Somerset DC, Neroche: Con 48 LDm 40 Grn 8 Lab 4
Southend-on-Sea UA, Southchurch: Con 51 Ind 20 Lab 18 Grn 7 LDm 4
Sunderland MBC, Redhill: Lab 38 LDm 30 Con 24 UKIP 5 Grn 3

[robbienicoll]

13 entries to open the month, with Toylyyev taking a well-earned break and manchesterman and dundas making welcome returns. All on time, with dundas picking up 10.1 faults for three infractions across the contests.

Halton Holegate, East Lindsey: 100% Conservative gain from Independent, with majorities ranging from 16% (Richard Cromwell) to 48% (Right Leaning).
Rayleigh North, Essex: 9 Liberal Democrat hold, with AJS, iainbhx and Right Leaning Conservative gain and dundas Independent (Lawmon) gain.
Hythe West and Langdown, New Forest: 100% Liberal Democrat hold, with majorities ranging from 6% (peterl) to 34% (andykernow).
Downhall and Rawreth, Rochford: 100% Liberal Democrat hold, with majorities ranging from 10% (AJS) to 48% (dundas).
Brasted, Chevening and Sundridge, Sevenoaks: 10 Conservative hold, with andykernow, dundas and Right Leaning Liberal Democrat gain.
Neroche, South Somerset: 100% Conservative hold, with majorities ranging from 7% (AJS, andrewp and andykernow) to 51% (Richard Cromwell).
Southchurch, Southend-on-Sea: 100% Conservative hold, with majorities ranging from 17% (kevinf) to 48% (dundas).
Redhill, Sunderland: 10 Labour gain from UKIP, with andrewp and Right Leaning Liberal Democrat gain and dundas Conservative gain.

Results are available at - docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1bvBYXD9dRwFT1_fxx0-SIqV6s8vbZBm-Nl0BTTrOSuA/edit?usp=sharing - good luck to all!

[Robert Waller]

I know we may well not get the final numbers till well into Friday, but I'd like to 'predict' that iainbhx has won this week, and be the first to offer congratulations!

[iainbhx]

Mar 4, 2022 0:30:30 GMT Robert Waller said:

I know we may well not get the final numbers till well into Friday, but I'd like to 'predict' that iainbhx has won this week, and be the first to offer congratulations!

There's still Halton Holgate to be put in, but I appear to have got very close to the actual result there, so I will accept that I fluked it this week and thanks for the congratulations. Next week will be fun.

[Robert Waller]

Hardly a fluke, when you were closest in four of the elections this week, won last week as well, and finished second for the whole of last month to the master Toylyyev!

Clearly now in the best form of any of us competing this month!

[andykernow]

March 10th. - going early this week

HEREFORDSHIRE - Bromyard West - Ind D Gain from IFH

Ind D -45%
Ind F - 28%
Conservative - 27%

HERTFORDSHIRE - Hitchin South - Lib Dem Hold

Liberal Democrat - 41%
Conservative - 34%
Green - 19%
Christian Peoples Alliance - 3%

NORTH HERTFORDSHIRE - Hitchin Highbury - Lib Dem Hold

Liberal Democrat - 46%
Conservative - 29%
Green - 21%
Christian Peoples Alliance - 4%

RUTLAND - Ryall - Green Gain from Conservative

Green - 51%
Conservative - 49%

[kevinf]

Herefordshire. Ferguson (I) 45, Con 35, Davies (I) 20
Hertfordshire. LD 52, Con 40, Green 7, CPA 1
North Herts. LD 58, Con 34, Green 7, CPA 1
Rutland Green 52, Con 48