Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
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Post by Tony Otim on Feb 28, 2022 11:45:54 GMT
HORSHAM DC; Denne (Lib Dem resigned)
Candidates:
O’SULLIVAN, Kevin Stephen (Labour)
TROTT, Clive Vernon (Liberal Democrats)
WALBANK, David (Conservative)
YEATES, Florian David (Green)
2019: LD 1287, 1221, 1216; Con 871, 849, 780; Lab 368, 312, 280
Kevin O’Sullivan was the 3rd Labour candidate in 2019.
Current Council: Con 30; LD 13; Grn 2; Ind 1; 2 vacancies
NORTHUMBERLAND UA; Seghill with Seaton Delaval (Con died)
Candidates:
CHICKEN, Eve Louise (Conservative)
GIBBS-BARTON, Alisdair Lindsey (Liberal Democrat)
ROBSON, Clive (Green)
SAVAGE, Christine (Labour)
2021: Con 884; Lab 739
Christine Savage was the unsuccessful Labour candidate last May.
Current council: Con 32; Lab 21; Ind Grp 6; LD 4; Grn 2; Non-aligned 1; 1 vacancy
TEST VALLEY DC; North Baddesley (Lib Dem resigned)
Candidates:
COOPER, Geoff (Liberal Democrat)
McMENEMY, George Henry(Conservative)
2019: LD 1311, 1291, 1141; Con 631, 498, 414
Current Council: Con 26; LD 11; Ind 3; Lib 1; Andover Alliance 1; 1 vacancy
THANET DC; Nethercourt (Lab disqualified)
Candidates:
DAVIS, John William (Conservative)
NIXEY, Anne-Marie (Labour)
TILBROOK, Claire (Thanet Independents)
2019: Lab 509, 411; Con 355, 312; Grn 249; UKIP 203
2015: UKIP 928, 845; Lab 747, 631; Con 722, 642
2011: Lab 669, 628; Con 600, 562; UKIP 188, 166
2007: Con 580, 511; Lab 443, 407; Ramsgate First 418
2003: Con 546, 500; Lab 542, 512;
Current Council: Con 26; Lab 15; Thanet Ind 6; Grn 4; Ind 4; 1 vacancy
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Post by andrewp on Feb 28, 2022 15:51:15 GMT
Tony OtimThese are on the 24th rather than the 17th
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Post by Rutlander on Feb 28, 2022 19:53:15 GMT
HORSHAM DC; Denne
The CON candidate, now chairman of the local party and a QC, was an officer of the SDP society at Cambridge University (slightly before Greg Clark MP)
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Post by Merseymike on Feb 28, 2022 21:11:44 GMT
HORSHAM DC; Denne The CON candidate, now chairman of the local party and a QC, was an officer of the SDP society at Cambridge University (slightly before Greg Clark MP) As was Chris Grayling |
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Post by thirdchill on Mar 1, 2022 9:59:03 GMT
Seghill with Seaton Deleval should definitely be a one with a reasonable chance of a labour gain (even with Lib Dems and Greens standing). May still be a marginal gain (2017 result was also quite close, with labour ahead that time) but it's the sort of ward they should be looking to gain back.
Will make it more difficult for the Conservatives running the council, as it would give a further opposition councillor (the council is already in NOC due to the Lib Dems gaining Hexham East).
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Post by johnloony on Mar 14, 2022 20:25:50 GMT
Is there nothing on 17th?
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Post by greenchristian on Mar 14, 2022 20:37:00 GMT
Is there nothing on 17th? Not that we're currently aware of. |
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Post by shadsy on Mar 21, 2022 10:41:00 GMT
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Post by phil156 on Mar 23, 2022 12:47:36 GMT
They all count on Thursday evening except Horsham which as normal is Friday morning
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jamie
Top Poster
Posts: 7,053 
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Post by jamie on Mar 23, 2022 12:49:41 GMT
The national picture is changed enough that Labour should win Seghill + Seaton Delaval, but don’t count out the local Conservative machine which put in a stonking performance in 2021. The Conservative candidate topped the concurrent parish poll with 2 Labour candidates elected alongside her.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Mar 23, 2022 13:38:03 GMT
The national picture is changed enough that Labour should win Seghill + Seaton Delaval, but don’t count out the local Conservative machine which put in a stonking performance in 2021. The Conservative candidate topped the concurrent parish poll with 2 Labour candidates elected alongside her. I think the results in 2021 suggest an incredibly strong local Tory Party in Blyth Valley (similar to Labour in Worthing) |
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jamie
Top Poster
Posts: 7,053
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Post by jamie on Mar 23, 2022 15:34:56 GMT
Just to illustrate how good the local Conservative campaigning is, consider these results from 2021 in adjacent and demographically similar wards:
Seghill + Seaton Delaval - Conservative +9%
Holywell - Labour +20%
Valley - Labour +30%
Holywell was clearly not targeted by the Conservatives and gave Labour a very good result with not much change from their then poor result in 2017. Seghill + Seaton Delaval saw a big swing to the Conservatives. Valley (part of North Tyneside council) saw a much better result for the Conservatives than previous years.
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Post by andrewteale on Mar 23, 2022 18:23:59 GMT
Just to illustrate how good the local Conservative campaigning is, consider these results from 2021 in adjacent and demographically similar wards: Seghill + Seaton Delaval - Conservative +9% Holywell - Labour +20% Valley - Labour +30% Holywell was clearly not targeted by the Conservatives and gave Labour a very good result with not much change from their then poor result in 2017. Seghill + Seaton Delaval saw a big swing to the Conservatives. Valley (part of North Tyneside council) saw a much better result for the Conservatives than previous years. Interesting that the Conservatives actually fell back in Holywell in 2021 compared to 2017: May 2021 Lab 57 C 37 Grn 6 May 2019 by-election Lab 58 C 32 LD 10 May 2017 Lab 50 C 39 UKIP 10 May 2013 Lab 46 LD 28 Ind 18 C 8 The Labour councillor for Holywell until his death in 2019 was Laura Pidcock's dad. |
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jamie
Top Poster
Posts: 7,053
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Post by jamie on Mar 23, 2022 18:49:35 GMT
Interesting that the Conservatives actually fell back in Holywell in 2021 compared to 2017: May 2021 Lab 57 C 37 Grn 6 May 2019 by-election Lab 58 C 32 LD 10 May 2017 Lab 50 C 39 UKIP 10 May 2013 Lab 46 LD 28 Ind 18 C 8 You are of course correct. That’ll teach me for using % change from Wikipedia (rarely a good idea tbf). |
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Post by evergreenadam on Mar 23, 2022 20:24:06 GMT
Britainelects seems to be down at the moment, was hoping to read Andrew’s preview.
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
Posts: 9,729
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Post by Chris from Brum on Mar 23, 2022 20:50:00 GMT
Britainelects seems to be down at the moment, was hoping to read Andrew’s preview. There's a backup site called Medium. Google Andrew's Previews tomorrow and you should find them. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Mar 23, 2022 23:35:30 GMT
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Post by John Chanin on Mar 24, 2022 2:45:32 GMT
I rather like the idea that all the Conservative names are copyright. Does that mean we can’t quote them?
More seriously it is extremely odd that Britain Elects has been down for over a week now, with no explanation that I can find anywhere.
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Post by andrewteale on Mar 24, 2022 8:01:18 GMT
I rather like the idea that all the Conservative names are copyright. Does that mean we can’t quote them? More seriously it is extremely odd that Britain Elects has been down for over a week now, with no explanation that I can find anywhere. The BE team gave me an explanation for what has gone wrong. They reckon it will take a day to fix and finding a spare day to do that is proving difficult. TBH a short statement on their Twitter would not have gone amiss, not least because some of the enquiries as to what has gone wrong are coming to me. |
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Post by olympian95 on Mar 24, 2022 22:55:10 GMT
Tory hold in Northumberland - Eve Chicken elected
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