Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
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Post by Tony Otim on Mar 25, 2022 11:59:15 GMT
Although, of course, 2019 was an incredibly bad year for the Tories at the locals and a small swing back to them since then is, tbh, about a par for the course result at the moment I would say. In contrast I would say that the Northumberland one is a very good result for them and the Thanet one rather poor. Yes, I would say the North Baddesley result was par for a Con/ LD contest in southern England at the moment. A small swing to the Tories since 2019. That is what I expect to happen in Somerset in a few weeks time. And the Horsham result pretty similar, although there the Conservatives flat lined compared to 2019 and the Lib Dems down a few points, with the Greens not having stood last time. |
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Post by middleenglander on Mar 25, 2022 12:04:57 GMT
Horsham: Denne - Liberal Democrat hold | Party | 2022 votes | 2022 share | since 2019 "top" | since 2019 "average" | | Liberal Democrat | 832 | 46.0% | -4.9% | -5.8% | | Conservative | 628 | 34.7% | +0.3% | -0.1% | | Labour | 241 | 13.3% | -1.2% | +0.0% | | Green | 107 | 5.9% | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Total votes | 1,808 |
| 72% | 75% |
Swing: Liberal Democrat to Conservative 2½% / 2¾% since 2019 Council now: 30 Conservative, 14 Liberal Democrat, 2 Green, 1 Independent, 1 vacancy Northumberland: Seghill with Seaton Delaval - Conservative hold | Party | 2022 votes | 2022 share | since 2021 | since 2017 | since 2013 | | Conservative | 702 | 55.6% | +1.1% | +13.2% | +39.8% | | Labour | 511 | 40.5% | -5.1% | -9.0% | -32.8% | | Green | 29 | 2.3% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Liberal Democrat | 21 | 1.7% | from nowhere
| from nowhere | -9.3% | | UKIP |
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| -8.2% |
| | Total votes | 1,263 |
| 78% | 88% | 110% |
Swing: Labour to Conservative 3% since May, 11% since 2017 and if meaningful 36¼% since 2013 Council now: 33 Conservative, 20 Labour, 6 Independent Group, 4 Liberal Democrat, 2 Green, 2 non-aligned Test Valley: North Baddesley - Liberal Democrat hold | Party | 2022 votes | 2022 share | since 2019 "top" | since 2019 "average" |
| since 2015 "top" * | since 2015 "average" * | | Liberal Democrat | 1,095 | 63.9% | -3.6% | -6.9% |
| +26.5% | +24.6% | | Conservative | 618 | 36.1% | +3.6% | +6.9% |
| +3.4% | +7.6% | | UKIP |
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| -19.3% | -20.7% | | Labour |
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| -10.7% | -11.5% | | Total votes | 1,713 |
| 88% | 97% | | 40% | 44% |
* boundary changes Swing: Liberal Democrat to Conservative 3½% / 7% since 2019 but if particularly meaningful Conservative to Liberal Democrat 11½% / 8½% since 2015 Council now: 26 Conservative, 12 Liberal Democrat, 3 Independent, 1 Liberal, 1 Andover Alliance Thanet: Nethercourt - Labour hold | Party | 2022 votes | 2022 share | since 2019 "top" | since 2019 "average" | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | | Labour | 505 | 55.5% | +16.8% | +18.6% | +24.3% | +25.0% | | Conservative | 230 | 25.3% | -1.7% | -1.5% | -4.8% | -4.9% | | Thanet Independent | 175 | 19.2% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Green |
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| -18.9% | -20.0% |
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| UKIP
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| -15.4% | -16.3% | -38.7% | -39.3% | | Total votes | 910 |
| 69% | 73% | 38% | 40% |
Swing: Conservative to Labour 9¼% / 10% since 2019 Council now: 26 Conservative, 16 Labour, 6 Thanet Independent, 4 Green, 4 Independent
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Post by jamesdoyle on Mar 25, 2022 12:12:12 GMT
GWBWI
With four holds out of four, it's unsurprisingly dull
Lab +15
Grn +4
LDm -3
Con -3
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ricmk
Lib Dem
Posts: 2,615 
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Post by ricmk on Mar 25, 2022 12:18:12 GMT
HORSHAM Denne Clive Vernon TROTT (Liberal Democrats) 832 David WALBANK (The Conservative Party Candidate) 628 Kevin Stephen O'SULLIVAN (Labour Party) 241 Florian David YEATES (The Green Party Candidate) 107 Spoiled ballots 6; turnout 24.2% I thought that could be a Lib Dem banana skin given how impressive the Conservative candidate looked, and both Lab/Green standing. Looks impressive from a distance. |
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dundas
Non-Aligned
Hope Not Hate is Lumpen MI5
Posts: 998
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Post by dundas on Mar 25, 2022 13:10:01 GMT
Although, of course, 2019 was an incredibly bad year for the Tories at the locals and a small swing back to them since then is, tbh, about a par for the course result at the moment I would say. In contrast I would say that the Northumberland one is a very good result for them and the Thanet one rather poor. The fact this was a North Baddesley result with us getting over 60% without a Dowden on the ballot paper is every reason you need to call it 'stonking'. They're an institution in this ward & the county division that includes it. A McMenemy may have been the next best thing. Might be time to check the local register and see if there are any Benalis or Le Tissiers among your ranks. I daresay Eve Chicken also picked up a few votes this weeks for "having the best name". |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
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Post by The Bishop on Mar 25, 2022 13:10:37 GMT
Yes, the Horsham result is maybe better for the LibDems than it seems on paper. As is their Test Valley one, come to that.
Overall the three "main parties" all have some reason to be pleased this week, which doesn't always happen.
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iang
Lib Dem
Posts: 1,813
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Post by iang on Mar 25, 2022 13:14:51 GMT
Presumably if the par score in May is a 2 to 3% swing from LD to Tory compared to 2019, in 2022 comparing mainly to 2018, that should deliver significant LD gains
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Post by andrew111 on Mar 25, 2022 17:40:11 GMT
Presumably if the par score in May is a 2 to 3% swing from LD to Tory compared to 2019, in 2022 comparing mainly to 2018, that should deliver significant LD gains If the national polls stay the same there will be about a 4% swing from Tory to LD since 2018 |
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
Posts: 9,729
Member is Online
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Post by Chris from Brum on Mar 25, 2022 17:43:57 GMT
Huh? A 64-36 victory is "stonking" under most circumstances in a straight fight. Last time round there was a UKIP candidate to distract some voters, and I would suspect that they would "return" to the Tories by and large. No there wasn't. In 2019 there were only Lib Dem and Conservative candidates. You're correct, I'm getting mixed up with something else. But it's still a commanding win. |
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