|
|
Post by casualobserver on Sept 28, 2024 0:35:08 GMT
On the Techne website there is the opportunity to send an email to ask questions. I asked essentially what Adam Gray mentions i.e. have they changed their processes which would make them any more accurate. If/when I receive a reply I will post the details. I have reminded Techne that I wrote a week ago. I have yet to receive a reply. I fear that their starting point may be that it wasn’t their polling that was wrong in the General Election, it was the fault of the electors. |
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 39,015
Member is Online
|
Post by The Bishop on Sept 28, 2024 9:40:19 GMT
Yes, but what if last time was at least significantly "the polls got the election result wrong *because* of the polls".
(or to put it another way - in an alternate universe where there is little or no polling but all other fundamentals the same, do we get the same result?)
|
|
|
|
Post by redtony on Sept 28, 2024 20:54:30 GMT
polls are just snapshots what people think of political parties
they are not and can never be predictions of election results
|
|
|
|
Post by John Chanin on Sept 29, 2024 6:58:02 GMT
polls are just snapshots what people think of political parties they are not and can never be predictions of election results Well quite. But pollsters seem to feel the need to make predictions, always on a fairly shaky basis, so it's no surprise they are always different from the result. For me the interesting thing is why they feel the need to make predictions. |
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 39,015
Member is Online
|
Post by The Bishop on Sept 29, 2024 9:40:05 GMT
Indeed, several pollsters now have a substantial predictive element in their VI figures. Something that I remain highly dubious about.
|
|
|
|
Post by andrewp on Oct 4, 2024 9:34:42 GMT
LAB: 31% (-1)
CON: 23% (+1)
RFM: 18% (=)
LDM: 13% (=)
GRN: 7% (=)
SNP: 2% (=)
Via @techneuk, 2-3 Oct.
|
|
|
|
Post by swanarcadian on Oct 11, 2024 11:23:07 GMT
9-10 October
Lab 29% (-2)
Cons 24% (+1)
Lib Dems 12% (-1)
Reform 19% (+1)
Greens 7% (=)
SNP 2% (=)
Others 7% (+1)
|
|
|
|
Post by gibbon on Oct 11, 2024 14:27:04 GMT
Until Reform start too win seats in sufficient numbers to threaten any Conservative comeback newspapers such as The Mail and The Express will give them a free run and happily promote them. The test will be when there is a by election and both Reform and the Conservatives are contenders the same seat. That will be interesting.
|
|
Raddy
Non-Aligned
Posts: 69 
|
Techne UK
Oct 12, 2024 7:13:15 GMT
via mobile
Post by Raddy on Oct 12, 2024 7:13:15 GMT
Until Reform start too win seats in sufficient numbers to threaten any Conservative comeback newspapers such as The Mail and The Express will give them a free run and happily promote them. The test will be when there is a by election and both Reform and the Conservatives are contenders the same seat. That will be interesting. Are you having a laugh? The Mail has lost 50% of its circulation since 2010 and is now around 1 million, the Express has lost 75% and is now around 0.3million. The direction is only going one way and accelerating, by 2029 the significance of the legacy press and the MSM generally, as we can see with the imminent demise of Sky News will be marginal. |
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 39,015
Member is Online
|
Post by The Bishop on Oct 12, 2024 9:49:19 GMT
Actual newspaper circulations hardly matter, as long as the broadcasters slavishly follow the agenda of the right wing press.
That is the trick the media magnates have discovered to keep their influence going, on both sides of the Atlantic.
|
|
Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 12,039
|
Post by Khunanup on Oct 12, 2024 15:59:26 GMT
Until Reform start too win seats in sufficient numbers to threaten any Conservative comeback newspapers such as The Mail and The Express will give them a free run and happily promote them. The test will be when there is a by election and both Reform and the Conservatives are contenders the same seat. That will be interesting. Are you having a laugh? The Mail has lost 50% of its circulation since 2010 and is now around 1 million, the Express has lost 75% and is now around 0.3million. The direction is only going one way and accelerating, by 2029 the significance of the legacy press and the MSM generally, as we can see with the imminent demise of Sky News will be marginal. The Mail website is has the highest traffic of any newspaper website in the world. The dead tree part of its reach is trivial in comparison. |
|
Raddy
Non-Aligned
Posts: 69
|
Techne UK
Oct 12, 2024 19:40:57 GMT
via mobile
Post by Raddy on Oct 12, 2024 19:40:57 GMT
Are you having a laugh? The Mail has lost 50% of its circulation since 2010 and is now around 1 million, the Express has lost 75% and is now around 0.3million. The direction is only going one way and accelerating, by 2029 the significance of the legacy press and the MSM generally, as we can see with the imminent demise of Sky News will be marginal. The Mail website is has the highest traffic of any newspaper website in the world. The dead tree part of its reach is trivial in comparison. That may well be the case, it is also the case that if people are looking on line for their news they are usually using multiple outlets including the non mainstream sites like Talk, GB News etc. The days of slavish loyalty to a publication or legacy broadcast channel are coming to an end with the passing of the older boomer generations, their influence on the news grazers is much reduced. The days of 'It was the Sun wot won it' is about as relevant today as the 'Sun never sets on the British Empire'. |
|
Andrew_S
Top Poster
Posts: 28,241
Member is Online
|
Post by Andrew_S on Oct 18, 2024 9:07:25 GMT
Labour: 28% (-1) Conservatives: 25% (+1) Reform UK: 19% (=) Lib Dems: 13% (+1) Greens: 7% (=) SNP: 2% (=) Others: 6% (-1) www.techneuk.com/tracker/ |
|
john07
Labour & Co-operative
Posts: 15,820
Member is Online
|
Post by john07 on Oct 19, 2024 0:00:34 GMT
Are you having a laugh? The Mail has lost 50% of its circulation since 2010 and is now around 1 million, the Express has lost 75% and is now around 0.3million. The direction is only going one way and accelerating, by 2029 the significance of the legacy press and the MSM generally, as we can see with the imminent demise of Sky News will be marginal. The Mail website is has the highest traffic of any newspaper website in the world. The dead tree part of its reach is trivial in comparison. What proportion of the Online Mail readership are from the UK? I would find this interesting. I ask because the Guardian has very high online readership but a high proportion of those readers are from the USA, Canada, New Zealand, Australia, etc. and beyond. This is evident from the news content in the Guardian online edition. |
|
Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 12,039
|
Techne UK
Oct 19, 2024 0:34:49 GMT
via mobile
Post by Khunanup on Oct 19, 2024 0:34:49 GMT
The Mail website is has the highest traffic of any newspaper website in the world. The dead tree part of its reach is trivial in comparison. What proportion of the Online Mail readership are from the UK? I would find this interesting. I ask because the Guardian has very high online readership but a high proportion of those readers are from the USA, Canada, New Zealand, Australia, etc. and beyond. This is evident from the news content in the Guardian online edition. I believe higher than the grauniad (and it's certainly more click baity so it shows up on more search engines/home pages when you're in the UK than the Guardian does) but as you point out the readership internationally is going to outstrip the domestic audience for it to be in such a dominant position. |
|
|
|
Post by timmullen on Oct 19, 2024 1:44:23 GMT
The Mail website is has the highest traffic of any newspaper website in the world. The dead tree part of its reach is trivial in comparison. What proportion of the Online Mail readership are from the UK? I would find this interesting. I ask because the Guardian has very high online readership but a high proportion of those readers are from the USA, Canada, New Zealand, Australia, etc. and beyond. This is evident from the news content in the Guardian online edition. I think The Mail certainly has a dedicated Australian version as it’s a go-to resource for Neighbours and Home and Away gossip, and, like its Brit counterpart, has a pretty good cricket section with some credible reporters. |
|
|
|
Post by hullenedge on Oct 25, 2024 9:48:30 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by hullenedge on Nov 1, 2024 10:41:01 GMT
|
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 39,015
Member is Online
|
Post by The Bishop on Nov 1, 2024 12:35:31 GMT
Labour have regained a bit of ground with this pollster in the past few weeks, interesting to see if that gets backed up elsewhere.
|
|
|
|
Post by hullenedge on Nov 8, 2024 13:44:58 GMT
LAB: 29% (-1)
CON: 25% (+1)
REF: 18% (=)
LDM: 14% (-1)
GRN: 7% (=)
SNP: 2% (=)
6-7 November
|
|
