Techne UK

[batman]

this is all sampled since yesterday right?

[woollyliberal]

May 23, 2024 20:08:06 GMT batman said:

this is all sampled since yesterday right?

It's their weekly poll leaked 12 hours early. The fieldwork dates will be 22nd - 23rd. Some of that might have been before 5pm.

[johng]

Already leaked yesterday, but here it is from the horse's mouth.

[andrewp]

LAB: 45% (-)
CON: 21% (+2)
REF: 12% (-2)
LDEM: 11% (-1)
GRN: 6% (+1)

via @techneuk, 31 May

[CatholicLeft]

Jun 1, 2024 17:55:36 GMT andrewp said:

LAB: 45% (-)
CON: 21% (+2)
REF: 12% (-2)
LDEM: 11% (-1)
GRN: 6% (+1)

via @techneuk, 31 May

The Diane Abbot effect is destroying Labour - whisper it: Rishi is making an extraordinary comeback!!

[batman]

yes with a giddy 21% the Tories are clearly set for victory - in South Holland & the Deepings

[hullenedge]

[woollyliberal]

Six polls in a row with Reform up. Looks real to me. What is interesting is that Labour are down 2% as well as the Tories being down 2.5%. Farage's return draws from both sides.

[michaelarden]

Jun 6, 2024 21:33:29 GMT woollyliberal said:

Six polls in a row with Reform up. Looks real to me. What is interesting is that Labour are down 2% as well as the Tories being down 2.5%. Farage's return draws from both sides.

Yes but 2% when you're polling above 40% is a hell of a lot less significant than 2% when you're barely polling 20%.

[The Bishop]

And in any case reading the changes like that is a bit simplistic - cross tables show that 2019 Labour voters going to Reform (never very numerous) haven't changed much since Farage's announcement. At the moment, their drop is basically two pollsters who had them notably high last time reverting to more "normal" figures.

[Pete Whitehead]

Jun 7, 2024 9:55:45 GMT The Bishop said:

And in any case reading the changes like that is a bit simplistic - cross tables show that 2019 Labour voters going to Reform (never very numerous) haven't changed much since Farage's announcement. At the moment, their drop is basically two pollsters who had them notably high last time reverting to more "normal" figures.

You wouldn't expect 2019 Labour voters to switch much to Reform. Where there is the potential for significant movement is amongst those who didn't vote Labour in 2019 but have been hithrto saying they will do this time - the 15% or so which is the difference between the 30% they won then and the 40-45% they're polling now - those who voted Conservative or didn't vote and (especially) those who voted for the Brexit party

[YL]

Lab 43 (-1)
Con 19 (-1)
Reform 16 (+1)
Lib Dem 11 (+1)
Green 6 (nc)
SNP 2 (nc)

[stodge]

Herding with the other pollsters - Con/Ref at 35%, Lab/LD/Green at 60%.

Remarkably consistent and hasn't changed much throughout the campaign.

[cogload]

[polupolu]

On those numbers, the Tories are projected to take about 60 seats, and Labour 500, in the FT and Electoral-Calculus-UNS models,

but about 160 and 375 respectively (if applied to England as they don't give an option for GB)  on principalfish.co.uk/electionmaps/?map=predictit_new

[batman]

There is no evidence that Labour's vote is slipping in most polls. People Polling have it slipping but have, shall we say diplomatically, questionable methodology, YouGov have changed their methodology for reasons which aren't exactly clear and show Labour's vote share gradually slipping (though still way ahead). There is no evidence for a major advance in Reform's share, although they are second or equal second in some polls, apart from the People Polling thingy. Most polls show the situation fairly static, with Labour & the Tories generally very slightly down, and Reform & the LDs generally slightly up. But the picture of Labour being way, way ahead remains, and people have already voted. We canvassed several today who had.

[woollyliberal]

Jun 21, 2024 13:42:52 GMT batman said:

There is no evidence that Labour's vote is slipping in most polls.

The block of polls before the election was called had Labour between 42% and 48%. The last 50+ polls have them from 39% to 46% even if you ignore the YouGov 36% and the People Polling 35%. 11 of the last 20 polls are below their lowest pre-election poll.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2024_United_Kingdom_general_election

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

Jun 21, 2024 14:08:44 GMT woollyliberal said:

Jun 21, 2024 13:42:52 GMT batman said:

There is no evidence that Labour's vote is slipping in most polls.

The block of polls before the election was called had Labour between 42% and 48%. The last 50+ polls have them from 39% to 46% even if you ignore the YouGov 36% and the People Polling 35%. 11 of the last 20 polls are below their lowest pre-election poll.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2024_United_Kingdom_general_election

They are where most of us expected them to be at this stage of the election campaign, at the bottom end or lower than previous polling. It's the Conservatives tanking, rather than recovering at bit, that was not expected. 

[hullenedge]

[polupolu]

On those numbers:

FT:
Lab 478
Con 51
LD 83
Ref 3
Grn 0

Electoral Calculus UNS:
Lab 485
Con 62
LD 62
Grn 1
Ref 0

Electoral calculus MRP:
Lab 485
Con 39
LD 76
Ref 7 (Ashfield, Barnsely S, Boston & Skegness, Clacton, Cotswolds N, Louth & Horncastle, Skipton & Rippon)
Grn 3 (inc. Waveny Valley)