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Post by Andrew_S on Mar 3, 2022 0:38:31 GMT
Lab 50
Con 34
LD 4
TUSC 4
Reform 3
Grn 2.8
Ind Holmes 0.4
Ind Lutwyche 0.4
CPA 0.4
Ind O'Rourke 0.4
Elvis 0.3
OMRLP 0.3
Turnout 28%
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Post by manchesterman on Mar 3, 2022 1:34:58 GMT
Lab 46
Con 36
LD 4.5
Ref 3.5
Grn 3.5
TUSC 3
Ind Lutwyche 2
Ind Holmes 0.4
OMRLP 0.3
CPA 0.3
Ind O'Rourke 0.3
Elvis 0.2
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Mar 3, 2022 6:46:05 GMT
I'm waiting for Roger Harmer to make his prediction, so I can copy him and get the correct answer 
You have until 10pm tonight to do this.  |
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dundas
Non-Aligned
Hope Not Hate is Lumpen MI5
Posts: 1,001 
Member is Online
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Post by dundas on Mar 3, 2022 6:54:48 GMT
Robert ALDEN (Conservative) 41.5
David BISHOP (Bus Pass Elvis Party) 0.1
Jack BROOKES (Reform UK) 4.0
Lee DARGUE (Liberal Democrats)6.6
Paulette HAMILTON (Labour) 41.4
Siobhan HARPER-NUNES (Green)1.5
Clifton HOLMES (Independent) 0.1
Michael LUTWYCHE (Independent) 0.6
Mel MBONDIAH (CPA) 0.5
Dave NELLIST (TUSC) 2.7
Thomas O'ROURKE (Independent) 0.7
The Good Knight SIR-NOSDA (OMRLP) 0.3
Conservative gain from Labour
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Mar 3, 2022 7:06:35 GMT
Robert ALDEN (Conservative) 41.1 David BISHOP (Bus Pass Elvis Party) 0.1 Jack BROOKES (Reform UK) 3.6 Lee DARGUE (Liberal Democrats)6.6 Paulette HAMILTON (Labour) 40.9 Siobhan HARPER-NUNES (Green)1.5 Clifton HOLMES (Independent) 0.1 Michael LUTWYCHE (Independent) 0.6 Mel MBONDIAH (CPA) 0.5 Dave NELLIST (TUSC) 2.7 Thomas O'ROURKE (Independent) 0.7 The Good Knight SIR-NOSDA (OMRLP) 0.3 Conservative gain from Labour
This entry has been accepted. It does however only addup to 98.7% so will be subject to penalties.
You may wish to change / resubmit your entry before 10pm tonight.
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dundas
Non-Aligned
Hope Not Hate is Lumpen MI5
Posts: 1,001
Member is Online
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Post by dundas on Mar 3, 2022 7:30:19 GMT
Robert ALDEN (Conservative) 41.1 David BISHOP (Bus Pass Elvis Party) 0.1 Jack BROOKES (Reform UK) 3.6 Lee DARGUE (Liberal Democrats)6.6 Paulette HAMILTON (Labour) 40.9 Siobhan HARPER-NUNES (Green)1.5 Clifton HOLMES (Independent) 0.1 Michael LUTWYCHE (Independent) 0.6 Mel MBONDIAH (CPA) 0.5 Dave NELLIST (TUSC) 2.7 Thomas O'ROURKE (Independent) 0.7 The Good Knight SIR-NOSDA (OMRLP) 0.3 Conservative gain from Labour
This entry has been accepted. It does however only addup to 98.7% so will be subject to penalties.
You may wish to change / resubmit your entry before 10pm tonight.
thanks, I've edited this now. |
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Mar 3, 2022 7:39:04 GMT
This entry has been accepted. It does however only addup to 98.7% so will be subject to penalties.
You may wish to change / resubmit your entry before 10pm tonight.
thanks, I've edited this now.
edited submission adds up to 100% and is now your entry.
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Mar 3, 2022 8:23:04 GMT
20 entries have been accepted so far.
Competition open for entries until close of poll, 10pm tonight.
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Post by carlton43 on Mar 3, 2022 11:06:01 GMT
I have nothing to go on here except these Forum columns. It is the city I know least well and least about. The history just posted by Andrew is a tour de force for which thank and commend him. What an interesting history at a crux of former traditional counties and then the usual expansion and demographic overlays from the railways, motorways, social housing and immigration. What profound changes? It seems to be a north east outlier on way to Sutton Coldfield and considerably whiter than average for the city. But it has a record of very low turnouts? What now? I suspect that Dromey was well-established and well liked as a sort of 'one of them' with his old school TU background? I cannot see Paulette having the same appeal in any way as a controversial and acerbic black woman. That alone is likely to switch some votes to Conservative and some to not voting at all. This is likely to hinge on differential TO between Labour and Conservative and the play off between well known long term trier Alden and a more abrasive black import. How much consideration will Reform play on the Conservative vote and Nellist on the Labour vote? I don't see the others having much purchase or effect on anything at all. It seems to have been low key so far and with the Ukraine spat in the background will it get much attention there? Then the polls moving steadily towards Labour and now possibly away again? Is this a rather lower than average area for churn and change and for PVs? I suspect that it is. So it will be spur of the moment voting in person territory with emphasis on efficient campaign and a degree of knocking up. On balance, I just wonder if this might be rather closer than many suspect? I am still considering the position before making a punt and may wait for news of weather, activity on the ground and other indicators before putting up a forecast this evening.
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Post by Richard Cromwell on Mar 3, 2022 12:18:51 GMT
| Paulette Hamilton | 61.4% | | Robert Alden | 30.6% | | Siobhan Harper-Nunes | 5.3% | | Lee Dargue | 1.7% | | Michael Lutwycke | 0.5% | | Mel Mbondiah | 0.3% | | Dave Nellist | 0.2% | | Clifton Holmes | 0% | | Thomas Peter O'Rourke | 0% | | David Bishop | 0% | | Jack Brookes | 0% | | The Good Knight Sir NosDa | 0% |
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,901
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Post by Tony Otim on Mar 3, 2022 13:56:51 GMT
Labour 49.8
Conservative 37.9
Lib Dem 4.2
Green 2.6
Reform UK 1.7
TUSC 1.5
Lutwyche 0.7
CPA 0.5
Holmes 0.4
O'Rourke 0.3
Bus Pass Elvis 0.2
OMRLP 0.2
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Post by November_Rain on Mar 3, 2022 19:56:25 GMT
AMENDED:
Labour 57.22
Con. 27.13
LibDem. 5
Reform. 4.10
Green. 2.6
TUSC. 1.5
Lutwyche (ind). 1.3
Holmes (ind). 0.7
OMRLP. 0.15
CPA. 0.12
Bus Pass Elvis. 0.10
ORourke (ind). 0.08
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Mar 3, 2022 20:12:05 GMT
AMENDED: Labour 57.22 Con. 27.13 LibDem. 5 Reform. 4.10 Green. 2.6 TUSC. 1.5 Lutwyche (ind). 1.3 Holmes (ind). 0.7 OMRLP. 0.15 CPA. 0.12 Bus Pass Elvis. 0.10 ORourke (ind). 0.08
Confirming adds up to 100%
As it has some predictions to 2 decimal plces it will be placed behind those predicting to 1 decimal place, as requested, in the event of a tie-break.
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Post by carlton43 on Mar 3, 2022 21:39:58 GMT
CON 46.3
LAB 46.2
REF 2.7
LD 2.3
GRN 0.7
Lutwyche 0.6
TUSC 0.3
Holmes 0.3
CPA 0.2
O'Rourke 0.2
LOONY 0.1
ELVIS 0.1
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Post by manchesterman on Mar 3, 2022 21:43:20 GMT
Does anyone know if the count/result will be televised anywhere? I appreciate that world events might mean that even the usual 24 hour news channels might not pay it more than fleeting interest...
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nodealbrexiteer
Forum Regular
non aligned favour no deal brexit!
Posts: 4,450
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Mar 3, 2022 21:44:12 GMT
CON 46.3 LAB 46.2 REF 2.7 LD 2.3 GRN 0.7 Lutwyche 0.6 TUSC 0.3 Holmes 0.3 CPA 0.2 O'Rourke 0.2 LOONY 0.1 ELVIS 0.1 liked for the audacity not necessarily the result! |
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clyde1998
SNP
Green (E&W) member; SNP supporter
Posts: 1,765
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Post by clyde1998 on Mar 3, 2022 21:50:02 GMT
Lab 49.5
Con 41.2
LDm 2.5
Grn 2.1
RUK 1.8
TUSC 1.5
Lutwyche 0.6
Holmes 0.3
OMRLP 0.2
O'Rourke 0.1
CPA 0.1
Elvis 0.1
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Mar 3, 2022 22:09:14 GMT
Competition Closed.
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Mar 3, 2022 22:13:32 GMT
If my working outs are correct.
We have 24 entries. 21 out of 24 predict a Labour win over Conservatives ranging from 0.70% by shadsy to 40.60% by peterl a range of 39.90%
3 out of 24 predict a Conservative win over Labour all by 0.10% by carlton43, dundas and NeathWest a range of 0%
Prediction ranges
Robert ALDEN (Conservative) 22.50% by peterl to 46.30% by carlton43 a range of 23.80%
David BISHOP (Bus Pass Elvis Party) 0.00% by RichardCromwell 1.00% by Harry Hayfield a range of 1.00%
Jack BROOKES (Reform UK) 0.00% by RichardCromwell 4.00% by dundas a range of 4.00%
Lee DARGUE (Liberal Democrats) 1.70% by RichardCromwell 10.70% by johnloony a range of 9.00%
Paulette HAMILTON (Labour) 41.40% by dundas 63.10% by peterl a range of 21.70%
Siobhan HARPER-NUNES (Green) 0.70% by carlton43 6.00% by Harry Hayfield a range of 5.30%
Clifton HOLMES (Independent) 0.00% by RichardCromwell 1.00% by Harry Hayfield a range of 1.00%
Michael LUTWYCHE (Independent) 0.20% by 4 predictors 4.50% by greenhert a range of 4.30%
Mel MBONDIAH (CPA) 0.10% by 5 predictors 1% by johnloony & Harry Hayfield a range of 0.90%
Dave NELLIST (TUSC) 0.20% by RichardCromwell 5.10% by shadsy a range of 4.90%
Thomas O'ROURKE (Independent) 0.00% by RichardCromwell 1.00% by Harry Hayfield a range of 1.00%
The Good Knight SIR-NOSDA (OMRLP) 0.00% by RichardCromwell 1.00% by Harry Hayfield a range of 1.00%
The result of the prediction competition will be posted sometime tomorrow, likely mid / late morning.
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Post by greenhert on Mar 3, 2022 22:38:23 GMT
If my working outs are correct.
We have 24 entries. 21 out of 24 predict a Labour win over Conservatives ranging from 0.70% by shadsy to 40.60% by peterl a range of 39.90%
3 out of 24 predict a Conservative win over Labour all by 0.10% by carlton43, dundas and NeathWest a range of 0%
Prediction ranges
Robert ALDEN (Conservative) 22.50% by peterl to 46.30% by carlton43 a range of 23.80%
David BISHOP (Bus Pass Elvis Party) 0.00% by RichardCromwell to 1.00% by Harry Hayfield a range of 1.00%
Jack BROOKES (Reform UK) 0.00% by RichardCromwell to 4.00% by dundas a range of 4.00%
Lee DARGUE (Liberal Democrats) 1.70% by RichardCromwell to 10.70% by johnloony a range of 9.00%
Paulette HAMILTON (Labour) 41.40% by dundas to 63.10% by peterl a range of 21.70%
Siobhan HARPER-NUNES (Green) 0.70% by carlton43 to 6.00% by Harry Hayfield a range of 5.30%
Clifton HOLMES (Independent) 0.00% by RichardCromwell to 1.00% by Harry Hayfield a range of 1.00%
Michael LUTWYCHE (Independent) 0.20% by 4 predictors to 4.50% by greenhert a range of 4.30%
Mel MBONDIAH (CPA) 0.10% by 5 predictors to 1% by johnloony & Harry Hayfield a range of 0.90%
Dave NELLIST (TUSC) 0.20% by RichardCromwell to 5.10% by shadsy a range of 4.90%
Thomas O'ROURKE (Independent) 0.00% by RichardCromwell to 1.00% by greenhert a range of 1.00%
The Good Knight SIR-NOSDA (OMRLP) 0.00% by RichardCromwell to 1.00% by greenhert & NeathWest a range of 1.00%
The result of the prediction competition will be posted sometime tomorrow, likely mid / late morning.
I predicted Thomas O'Rourke would get 0.8%, not 1%, and that The Good Knight Sir Nosda would get 0.4%, not 1.0%. |
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