Birmingham Erdington - 3 March 2022

[Tony Otim]

I'm waiting for Roger Harmer to make his prediction, so I can copy him and get the correct answer

[Roger Harmer]

Thanks for the reminder. I will put a forecast in later, but for now I will say that I think most of the early predictions have the Labour lead significantly too high.

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

This by election is next Thursday.

Reminds self to predict.

[kevinf]

Labour. 58
Con. 25
LibDem. 6
Green. 3
Reform. 3
TUSC. 2
Lutwyche (ind). 2
Holmes (ind). 0.5
OMRLP. 0.2
ORourke (ind). 0.1
CPA. 0.1
Bus Pass Elvis. 0.1

[November_Rain]

Why not - I'll give it a go!

Labour 59.22
Con. 26.12
LibDem. 5
Reform. 3.10
Green. 2.6
Lutwyche (ind). 2.5
TUSC. 1.3
Holmes (ind). 0.7
OMRLP. 0.15
CPA. 0.12
Bus Pass Elvis. 0.10
ORourke (ind). 0.08

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

Feb 28, 2022 18:52:33 GMT November_Rain said:

Why not - I'll give it a go!

Labour 59.22
Con. 26.12
LibDem. 5
Reform. 3.10
Green. 2.6
Lutwyche (ind). 2.5
TUSC. 1.3
Holmes (ind). 0.7
OMRLP. 0.15
CPA. 0.12
Bus Pass Elvis. 0.10
ORourke (ind). 0.08

November_Rain

This has been accepted.

It adds up to 100.99 so will get penalties.

Additionally as you have predicted to 2 decimal places, you will be placed behind those who have predicted to 1 decimal place, as requested, in any tie-breaker.

You may wish to adjust / resubmit your entry.

[🏴‍☠️ Neath West 🏴‍☠️]

Let's have a bit of fun...

Robert ALDEN (Conservative) 42.7%
Paulette HAMILTON (Labour) 42.6%
Michael LUTWYCHE (Independent) 3.6%
Lee DARGUE (Liberal Democrats) 3.4%
Dave NELLIST (TUSC) 2.4%
Siobhan HARPER-NUNES (Green) 1.9%
Jack BROOKES (Reform UK) 1.7%
Clifton HOLMES (Independent) 0.7%
The Good Knight SIR-NOSDA (OMRLP) 0.4%
Thomas O'ROURKE (Independent) 0.3%
David BISHOP (Bus Pass Elvis Party) 0.2%
Mel MBONDIAH (CPA) 0.1%

Multiple recounts, naturally.

[shadsy]

Lab 42.6
Con 41.9
TUSC 5.1
Lib Dem 3.5
Green 3.2
Reform UK 2.4
Holmes Ind .4
Lutwyche Ind .2
O'Rourke Ind .2
CPA .2
OMRLP .2
Bus Pass Elvis .1

[Harry Hayfield]

In for a penny, in for a pound I suppose. Lab 55, Con 25, Green 6, TUSC 5, Lib Dem 3, Reform 1, Holmes 1, Lutwyche 1, O'Rouke 1, CPA 1, Loonies 1, Elvis 1 (all rounded to the nearest whole percent)

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

Mar 1, 2022 15:22:47 GMT Harry Hayfield said:

In for a penny, in for a pound I suppose. Lab 55, Con 25, Green 6, TUSC 5, Lib Dem 3, Reform 1, Holmes 1, Lutwyche 1, O'Rouke 1, CPA 1, Loonies 1, Elvis 1 (all rounded to the nearest whole percent)

Harry Hayfield

This entry has been accepted but as it adds up to 101% it will receive penalties, you may wish to alter and resubmit to avoid these.

[Roger Harmer]

Lab 51.6
Con 38.8
Lib Dem 3.1
TUSC 2.0
Green 1.9
Reform UK 1.4
Holmes Ind 0.4
Lutwyche Ind 0.2
O'Rourke Ind 0.2
CPA 0.2
OMRLP 0.2
Bus Pass Elvis .1

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

Mar 1, 2022 17:24:40 GMT Roger Harmer said:

Lab 51.6
Con 38.8
Lib Dem 3.1
TUSC 2.0
Green 1.9
Reform UK 1.4
Holmes Ind 0.4
Lutwyche Ind 0.2
O'Rourke Ind 0.2
CPA 0.2
OMRLP 0.2
Bus Pass Elvis .1

Roger Harmer

This entry has been accepted but as it adds up to 100.1% it will receive penalties, you may wish to alter and resubmit to avoid these.

[Roger Harmer]

Lab 51.5
Con 38.8
Lib Dem 3.1
TUSC 2.0
Green 1.9
Reform UK 1.4
Holmes Ind 0.4
Lutwyche Ind 0.2
O'Rourke Ind 0.2
CPA 0.2
OMRLP 0.2
Bus Pass Elvis .1

Revised version to avoid penalties

[Harry Hayfield]

Mar 1, 2022 15:30:43 GMT Defenestrated Fipplebox said:

Mar 1, 2022 15:22:47 GMT Harry Hayfield said:

In for a penny, in for a pound I suppose. Lab 55, Con 25, Green 6, TUSC 5, Lib Dem 3, Reform 1, Holmes 1, Lutwyche 1, O'Rouke 1, CPA 1, Loonies 1, Elvis 1 (all rounded to the nearest whole percent)

Harry Hayfield

This entry has been accepted but as it adds up to 101% it will receive penalties, you may wish to alter and resubmit to avoid these.

No, I am quite happy with that (as I said I have rounded up to the nearest whole percent as I cannot work with decimals to that extent)

[batman]

Lab 52
Con 33.4
Lib Dem 4.4
TUSC 3.6
Reform UK 3.0
Green 2.1
Holmes Ind 0.4
OMRLP 0.3
Lutwyche Ind 0.2
O'Rourke Ind 0.2
CPA 0.2
Bus Pass Elvis 0.2

[LDCaerdydd]

Lab 55.0
Con 33.0
Lib Dem 3.3
Reform UK 3.1
Green 2.2
Lutwyche Ind 0.9
TUSC 0.7
OMRLP 0.6
CPA 0.4
Bus Pass Elvis 0.3
Holmes Ind 0.3
O'Rourke Ind 0.2

[clyde1998]

Just for a bit of intrigue more than anything, here's the mean average prediction from all predictions up to LDCaerdydd  (adjusted to add to 100.0%):

	%
Lab	54.4%
Con	30.6%
LDm	4.9%
Grn	2.9%
RUK	2.2%
TUSC	2.1%
Lutwyche	1.3%
Holmes	0.5%
O'Rourke	0.3%
CPA	0.3%
OMRLP	0.3%
Buss Pass	0.2%

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

Robert ALDEN (Conservative) 40.1
David BISHOP (Bus Pass Elvis Party) 0.2
Jack BROOKES (Reform UK) 1.2
Lee DARGUE (Liberal Democrats) 3.7
Paulette HAMILTON (Labour) 50.8
Siobhan HARPER-NUNES (Green) 1.8
Clifton HOLMES (Independent) 0.3
Michael LUTWYCHE (Independent) 0.8
Mel MBONDIAH (CPA) 0.1
Dave NELLIST (TUSC) 0.5
Thomas O'ROURKE (Independent) 0.1
The Good Knight SIR-NOSDA (OMRLP) 0.4

[jamesmanc22]

This is gonna be closer than people have predicted I think.

Lab 50%
Con 41%
Lib Dem 3%
Green 2.3%
Reform 2%
Lutwyche Ind 0.3
TUSC 0.3
OMRLP 0.3
CPA 0.3
Bus Pass Elvis 0.2
Holmes Ind 0.2
O'Rourke Ind 0.1

[Robert Waller]

Lab 52.0
Con 38.0
Lib Dem 3.5
Green 2.6
TUSC 1.2
Reform UK 1.1
Loony 0.5
Holmes Ind 0.4
Lutwyche Ind 0.3
CPA 0.2
O'Rourke Ind 0.1
Bus Pass Elvis 0.1