Birmingham Erdington - 3 March 2022

[jm]

Candidates
Robert ALDEN (Conservative)
David BISHOP (Bus Pass Elvis Party)
Jack BROOKES (Reform UK)
Lee DARGUE (Liberal Democrats)
Paulette HAMILTON (Labour)
Siobhan HARPER-NUNES (Green)
Clifton HOLMES (Independent)
Michael LUTWYCHE (Independent)
Mel MBONDIAH (CPA)
Dave NELLIST (TUSC)
Thomas O'ROURKE (Independent)
The Good Knight SIR-NOSDA (OMRLP)


I'll kick things off with my prediction:

Lab	61.1%
Con	27.9%
Lib Dem	4.1%
Green	2.3%
Reform UK	2.1%
TUSC	1.2%
Holmes Ind	0.3%
Lutwyche Ind	0.3%
O'Rourke Ind	0.3%
CPA	0.2%
Bus Pass Elvis	0.1%
OMRLP	0.1%

Turnout 37.5%

[peterl]

Lab 63.1%
Con 22.5%
Lib Dem 5.9%
Green 3.4%
Reform UK 2.5%
TUSC 0.8%
Holmes Ind 0.5%
O'Rourke Ind 0.4%
Lutwyche Ind 0.3%
CPA 0.3%
OMRLP 0.2%
Bus Pass Elvis 0.1%

Turnout 41.2%

[johnloony]

My predikshun from a month ago:

Lab 13,200
Con 6,200
LD 2,600
Grn 700
Ref 500
Others 1,000

Adjusting for the list of candidates, I predict:

Lab 54.5%
Con 25.6%
LD 10.7%
Grn 2.9%
Ref 2.1%
TUSC 1.3%
CPA 1.0%
IndH 0.5%
IndL 0.5%
IndO'R 0.4%
OMRLP 0.3%
Elvis 0.2%

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

jm are you running this competition?

I can if nobody else is.

I'll post the rules soon if so. 

[jm]

Feb 9, 2022 5:57:26 GMT Defenestrated Fipplebox said:

jm are you running this competition?

I can if nobody else is.

I'll post the rules soon if so. 

Yes, you can run it

[elinorhelyn]

Labour 6-8k majority. To all those predicting LDs will get a their deposit back lol. I think you'll find in a Keir Starmer led Labour Party, the LDs will struggle to get their deposit back in many a Lab/Con marginal

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

Parliamentary Prediction Competition for Birmingham Erdington by election.
3rd March 2022

The 12 candidates as a reminder are:
Robert ALDEN (Conservative)
David BISHOP (Bus Pass Elvis Party)
Jack BROOKES (Reform UK)
Lee DARGUE (Liberal Democrats)
Paulette HAMILTON (Labour)
Siobhan HARPER-NUNES (Green)
Clifton HOLMES (Independent)
Michael LUTWYCHE (Independent)
Mel MBONDIAH (CPA)
Dave NELLIST (TUSC)
Thomas O'ROURKE (Independent)
The Good Knight SIR-NOSDA (OMRLP)

Rules
1. Predict the Exact percentage score for each of the 12 candidates, to 1 decimal place.
2. Your total predictions must add up to 100%.
3. You will be penalised the amount you are above / below 100%, so please check your predictions carefully.
4. You will be penalised 12.3 points for each candidate missing from your prediction.
5. You will be penalised 6.1 points for predicting the wrong winner.
6. Deadline for Predictions is close of Poll, 10pm on Thursday 3rd March 2022.
8. The Winner is the person with the lowest score once scores, including any penalties, have been calculated after the by election.


Have Fun.
DHAA

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

The 3 predictions above have been accepted.

[greenhert]

This is rather early, but nevertheless I will post my prediction now:

Labour 56.2%
Conservative 28%
Independent (Lutwyche) 4.5%
Green 3%
Liberal Democrats 2.6%
Reform UK 2.1%
TUSC 1%
Independent (O'Rourke) 0.8%
Independent (Holmes) 0.7%
CPA 0.5%
OMRLP 0.4%
Bus-Pass Elvis 0.2%

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

If I like your prediction in this thread it means it has been accepted.

[yellowperil]

Feb 9, 2022 14:50:41 GMT Defenestrated Fipplebox said:

If I like your prediction in this thread it means it has been accepted.

So if you don't like my prediction you won't accept it?

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

Feb 9, 2022 15:14:24 GMT yellowperil said:

Feb 9, 2022 14:50:41 GMT Defenestrated Fipplebox said:

If I like your prediction in this thread it means it has been accepted.

So if you don't like my prediction you won't accept it?

U'oh bad English written. So predictable?!

Yes, it should have said if I've liked your prediction in this thread it means it has been accepted.

[philipgraves]

Lab 55.9
CON 30.2
Grn 3.8
LD 3.6
TUSC 3.1
REF UK 2.3
OMRLP 0.2
Holmes 0.2
Harper-Nunes 0.2
Lutwyche 0.2
CPA 0.2
BPEP 0.1


Turnout 30.4

[sirbenjamin]

FWIW:

Labour 54.90%
Conservative 31.90%
Green 3.40%
Liberal Democrats 3.20%
Independent (Lutwyche) 2.90%
Reform UK 2.1%
TUSC 0.50%
Independent (Holmes) 0.40%
Independent (O'Rourke) 0.35%
OMRLP 0.2%
CPA 0.10%
Bus-Pass Elvis 0.05%

[sirbenjamin]

Although it's a quite different type of seat to Tooting, I think we might see a similar phenomenon - e.g. a long-term Tory target seat that was just a little bit out of reach that sees several elections worth of hard work undone by an inconveniently timed by election.

[markgoodair]

Labour 57.20%
Con 28.28%
Lib Dem 8.59%
Green 3.57
TUSC 1.27
REF UK 1.0
OMRLP 0.1
Holmes 0.1
O Rourkie 0.1
Lutwyche 0.1
CPA 0.1
BPEP 0.1

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

Feb 13, 2022 20:18:57 GMT philipgraves said:

Lab 55.9
CON 30.2
Grn 3.8
LD 3.6
TUSC 3.1
REF UK 2.3
OMRLP 0.2
Holmes 0.2
Harper-Nunes 0.2
Lutwyche 0.2
CPA 0.2
BPEP 0.1


Turnout 30.4

This entry is no longer is no longer in this prediction competition.

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

Feb 17, 2022 13:48:03 GMT markgoodair said:

Labour 57.20%
Con 28.28%
Lib Dem 8.59%
Green 3.57
TUSC 1.27
REF UK 1.0
OMRLP 0.1
Holmes 0.1
Harper-Nunes 0.1
Lutwyche 0.1
CPA 0.1
BPEP 0.1

markgoodair

Harper-Nunes is the green party candidate.

O'Rourke the Independent candidate is missing.

Please confirm O'Rourke is 0.1% not Harper-Nunes

Also you have predicted 5 candidates to 2 decimal places. Whilst I will accept this, in a tie-breaker your entry will be placed below other predictors who have predicted to the requested 1 decimal place. You may alter prediction given this if you wish, or not.

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

Feb 14, 2022 16:07:04 GMT sirbenjamin said:

FWIW:

Labour 54.90%
Conservative 31.90%
Green 3.40%
Liberal Democrats 3.20%
Independent (Lutwyche) 2.90%
Reform UK 2.1%
TUSC 0.50%
Independent (Holmes) 0.40%
Independent (O'Rourke) 0.35%
OMRLP 0.2%
CPA 0.10%
Bus-Pass Elvis 0.05%

sirbenjamin

You have predicted 2 candidates to 2 decimal places. Whilst I will accept this, in a tie-breaker your entry will be placed below other predictors who have predicted to the requested 1 decimal place. You may alter prediction given this if you wish, or not.

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

Feb 17, 2022 13:48:03 GMT markgoodair said:

Labour 57.20%
Con 28.28%
Lib Dem 8.59%
Green 3.57
TUSC 1.27
REF UK 1.0
OMRLP 0.1
Holmes 0.1
O Rourkie 0.1
Lutwyche 0.1
CPA 0.1
BPEP 0.1

markgoodair

I have just realised this entry adds up to 100.51%

So it will get penalty points.

You may wish to resubmit.

If done to 1 decimal place it won't be relegated in any tie-breaker.