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Post by marksenior on Apr 10, 2013 23:16:48 GMT
LD 982 Lab 517 Con 281 UKIP 230 Ind 62 Green 27
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Post by Andrew_S on Apr 10, 2013 23:24:38 GMT
Luton:
LD 46.8%
Lab 24.6%
Con 13.4%
UKIP 11.0%
Ind 3.0%
Green 1.3%
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 12,020
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Post by Khunanup on Apr 10, 2013 23:24:48 GMT
LD 982 Lab 517 Con 281 UKIP 230 Ind 62 Green 27 Another painful result for the Tories. Shades of things to come in three weeks time methinks. |
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Post by paulypaul on Apr 11, 2013 9:01:57 GMT
LD 982 Lab 517 Con 281 UKIP 230 Ind 62 Green 27 Another painful result for the Tories. Shades of things to come in three weeks time methinks. One Swallow doesn't make a summer.  |
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Post by marksenior on Apr 11, 2013 9:16:56 GMT
Another painful result for the Tories. Shades of things to come in three weeks time methinks. One Swallow doesn't make a summer. There has been a whole flock of them in byelections this year . |
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Post by paulypaul on Apr 11, 2013 9:44:54 GMT
One Swallow doesn't make a summer. There has been a whole flock of them in byelections this year . Yes, but...as we know byelections rarely decide council administrations. Up and down England, Conservative candidates are making powerful arguements to keep their administrations in power after May. Mid term, in difficult economic times and after good results in 2009, we naturally have many, many more county councils to loose power in, than your party does. |
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Post by marksenior on Apr 11, 2013 10:17:29 GMT
There has been a whole flock of them in byelections this year . Yes, but...as we know byelections rarely decide council administrations. Up and down England, Conservative candidates are making powerful arguements to keep their administrations in power after May. Mid term, in difficult economic times and after good results in 2009, we naturally have many, many more county councils to loose power in, than your party does. Very rarely do people vote in council elections on which administration they want to run their council . There are rare examples but people vote on their view of things nationally and at this moment rightly or wrongly the Conservatives are toxic and as with the Lib Dems in 2011 their past voters are sitting at home or voting UKIP . |
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Post by Devonian on Apr 11, 2013 10:24:55 GMT
Yes, but...as we know byelections rarely decide council administrations. Up and down England, Conservative candidates are making powerful arguements to keep their administrations in power after May. Mid term, in difficult economic times and after good results in 2009, we naturally have many, many more county councils to loose power in, than your party does. Very rarely do people vote in council elections on which administration they want to run their council . There are rare examples but people vote on their view of things nationally and at this moment rightly or wrongly the Conservatives are toxic and as with the Lib Dems in 2011 their past voters are sitting at home or voting UKIP . I've noticed a big disparity between the relative positions Tories and UKIP in the opinion polls and local by elections. Specifically since Eastleigh the Tories have always had more than double UKIP's opinion poll rating. However in the 11 by elections where they both ran UKIP beat the Tories 5 times and equaled them in another. The Total UKIP vote was about 50% more than the tory total, UKIP won 3 to the Tories 1. And in not a single poll did the tories achieve double the UKIP vote. Is this kind of disparity normal? |
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Post by marksenior on Apr 11, 2013 12:20:46 GMT
Very rarely do people vote in council elections on which administration they want to run their council . There are rare examples but people vote on their view of things nationally and at this moment rightly or wrongly the Conservatives are toxic and as with the Lib Dems in 2011 their past voters are sitting at home or voting UKIP . I've noticed a big disparity between the relative positions Tories and UKIP in the opinion polls and local by elections. Specifically since Eastleigh the Tories have always had more than double UKIP's opinion poll rating. However in the 11 by elections where they both ran UKIP beat the Tories 5 times and equaled them in another. The Total UKIP vote was about 50% more than the tory total, UKIP won 3 to the Tories 1. And in not a single poll did the tories achieve double the UKIP vote. Is this kind of disparity normal? IMHO Yes , and the reason is that in local elections the turnout is much lower than it would be in a GE on which opinion poll VI are based . Lower turnout would benefit a party popular at that time and disadvantage a toxiv party . |
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,906
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Post by Tony Otim on Apr 11, 2013 12:31:21 GMT
Very rarely do people vote in council elections on which administration they want to run their council . There are rare examples but people vote on their view of things nationally and at this moment rightly or wrongly the Conservatives are toxic and as with the Lib Dems in 2011 their past voters are sitting at home or voting UKIP . I've noticed a big disparity between the relative positions Tories and UKIP in the opinion polls and local by elections. Specifically since Eastleigh the Tories have always had more than double UKIP's opinion poll rating. However in the 11 by elections where they both ran UKIP beat the Tories 5 times and equaled them in another. The Total UKIP vote was about 50% more than the tory total, UKIP won 3 to the Tories 1. And in not a single poll did the tories achieve double the UKIP vote. Is this kind of disparity normal? You also need to consider that as well as not necessarily representing General Election turnout or voting patterns, those 11 contests are not necessarily representative of the whole country. UKIP, as yet, are not trying to achieve nationwide coverage and stand in every or even most areas - therefore on the whole those 11 areas will be areas that are among the more promising for them either in terms of past vote or demographics (there are exceptions, but generally speaking). The conservatives generally do try to contest every (or almost every)seat whether or not it's a good area - so in the period we are talking about they fielded twice as many candidates as UKIP. |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Apr 11, 2013 12:35:22 GMT
LD 982 Lab 517 Con 281 UKIP 230 Ind 62 Green 27 Another painful result for the Tories. Shades of things to come in three weeks time methinks. and this time the impact is not from UKIP but looks lik you guys picked up the votes. It certainly looks promising for LD's in their core areas and being able to hold your own at the expense of Tories. |
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Post by Devonian on Apr 11, 2013 12:41:39 GMT
I've noticed a big disparity between the relative positions Tories and UKIP in the opinion polls and local by elections. Specifically since Eastleigh the Tories have always had more than double UKIP's opinion poll rating. However in the 11 by elections where they both ran UKIP beat the Tories 5 times and equaled them in another. The Total UKIP vote was about 50% more than the tory total, UKIP won 3 to the Tories 1. And in not a single poll did the tories achieve double the UKIP vote. Is this kind of disparity normal? IMHO Yes , and the reason is that in local elections the turnout is much lower than it would be in a GE on which opinion poll VI are based . Lower turnout would benefit a party popular at that time and disadvantage a toxiv party . That doesn't bode well for the Tories on May 2nd at all |
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Post by Devonian on Apr 11, 2013 13:35:42 GMT
I've noticed a big disparity between the relative positions Tories and UKIP in the opinion polls and local by elections. Specifically since Eastleigh the Tories have always had more than double UKIP's opinion poll rating. However in the 11 by elections where they both ran UKIP beat the Tories 5 times and equaled them in another. The Total UKIP vote was about 50% more than the tory total, UKIP won 3 to the Tories 1. And in not a single poll did the tories achieve double the UKIP vote. Is this kind of disparity normal? You also need to consider that as well as not necessarily representing General Election turnout or voting patterns, those 11 contests are not necessarily representative of the whole country. UKIP, as yet, are not trying to achieve nationwide coverage and stand in every or even most areas - therefore on the whole those 11 areas will be areas that are among the more promising for them either in terms of past vote or demographics (there are exceptions, but generally speaking). The conservatives generally do try to contest every (or almost every)seat whether or not it's a good area - so in the period we are talking about they fielded twice as many candidates as UKIP. The areas where opinion polling shows the Conservatives having the biggest proportionate lead over UKIP are London and Scotland. Neither of these areas are voting on the 2nd May. Furthermore the two London by elections UKIP did run in recently they won one (Gooshays) and in the other (Lewisham Evelyn) their vote, although poor, matched exactly the Tories. I think the Tories are going to be more squeezed by UKIP on May 2nd than many people think. Clearly they're going to be squeezed from the other side as well so I think it'll be an interesting night. |
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Post by paulypaul on Apr 11, 2013 21:37:14 GMT
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Post by paulypaul on Apr 11, 2013 21:43:49 GMT
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Apr 11, 2013 21:46:20 GMT
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Post by paulypaul on Apr 11, 2013 21:55:21 GMT
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Post by paulypaul on Apr 11, 2013 21:57:32 GMT
Pembrokeshire - Burton
RESULT: Rob Summons (Independent Plus Group) wins.
Rob Summons: 291 (Independent Plus)
Robin Wilson 166 (Conservative)
Robin Howells 162 (Labour)
Jon Harvey: 46 (Independent).
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Apr 11, 2013 21:57:38 GMT
Summons (Independent Plus) wins Burton. The Good Ole' Boys mafia hold.
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Post by Robert Waller on Apr 11, 2013 21:58:23 GMT
Is that 57 for the 'neo-nazi' ?
That's 14%.
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