Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
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Post by Tony Otim on Jan 21, 2022 12:05:11 GMT
Very much suggests that they'll be little change in that ward in May with 2 Lab, 1 SNP and 1 Con elected as last time. The Conservative vote holding up well, Labour a little down but with the loss of a long-standing incumbent, that's not a total surprise. Overall, it all feels quite static and I suspect that may be the case in quite a bit of Scotland in May too. Though again, postal votes. Is this the last Scottish council byelection before May? Yes - I think so. Yes - postal votes may have a role, but also unionism will provide the Scottish Conservatives with some insulation from the fallout of the Westminster shambles. I'm not sure May will be that bad for them up here... |
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Post by andrew111 on Jan 21, 2022 12:10:22 GMT
Though again, postal votes. Is this the last Scottish council byelection before May? Yes - I think so. Yes - postal votes may have a role, but also unionism will provide the Scottish Conservatives with some insulation from the fallout of the Westminster shambles. I'm not sure May will be that bad for them up here... Plus their resolute opposition to Johnson.. There isn't really any alternative for a unionist voter who is Brexity and anti woke |
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Post by michaelarden on Jan 21, 2022 12:13:21 GMT
Yes - I think so. Yes - postal votes may have a role, but also unionism will provide the Scottish Conservatives with some insulation from the fallout of the Westminster shambles. I'm not sure May will be that bad for them up here... Plus their resolute opposition to Johnson.. There isn't really any alternative for a unionist voter who is Brexity and anti woke There's an irony that the party calling for more Westminster rule is the one that has been effective at distancing itself from the very same Westminster rule. |
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timmullen1
Labour
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Post by timmullen1 on Jan 21, 2022 12:14:35 GMT
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Post by minionofmidas on Jan 21, 2022 12:43:47 GMT
Very much suggests that they'll be little change in that ward in May with 2 Lab, 1 SNP and 1 Con elected as last time. The Conservative vote holding up well, Labour a little down but with the loss of a long-standing incumbent, that's not a total surprise. Overall, it all feels quite static and I suspect that may be the case in quite a bit of Scotland in May too. Though again, postal votes. Are you saying the ballot paper messup is why Loughborough had a stronger Labour result? yes. |
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Post by andrewp on Jan 21, 2022 12:48:41 GMT
Is there any possibility of further repercussions of the ballot paper mistake in Charnwood?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 21, 2022 12:54:20 GMT
Though again, postal votes. Are you saying the ballot paper messup is why Loughborough had a stronger Labour result? He's saying that most of the votes would have been postal votes and therefore cast a couple of weeks ago before the shit had hit the fan when polling was a lot closer |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jan 21, 2022 12:54:51 GMT
Is there any possibility of further repercussions of the ballot paper mistake in Charnwood? It is always possible to take it further. The Conservative candidate could start an election petition. He would have to assert that the misprinted ballot papers caused him to lose enough votes that it may have affected the result of the election. As 547 valid postal votes were returned out of 1,100 issued, and the declaration seems to imply that none of the misprinted postal ballot papers were included in the count but rejected, it looks like the council did manage to get the error fixed in time so getting the result declared void will be an uphill struggle. |
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carlton43
Reform Party
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Post by carlton43 on Jan 21, 2022 13:06:22 GMT
It was a very bad result in an area that ought to be nailed on Labour. Labour should be cleaning up in conditions like this and yet their record all over for most of last year was frankly piss poor. 🥱 change the record, you’re becoming boring with your delusional rants. This is not a rant but an observation. And I do not consider myself to be delusional about this. We are now 12-years into various forms of Conservative administrations and would expect Labour to be in the strong recovery seen by the Conservatives in 2009. Brexit and Covid have proved to be a challenge for the Conservatives for which they were ill-prepared and largely incompetent. The Johnson experience has been successful as to winning a GE and breaking an intolerable HOC log-jam hiatus, but in nothing else at all. The Johnson Conservatives have an incohate policy vacuum and are in an unholy mess of conflicting positions that make little sense to membership or electorate. Latterly the party management, the errors, the misstatements and the rule breaking of various sorts are demeaning, disappointing and very weakening. All that sets a perfect situation for an even half-competent Opposition to make huge strides and to hoover up anything even mildly marginal by a raft of by-election successes. From such successes Labour would expect to fall back in a GE campaign and hope to come out as good contender if not victor. But you persist is having a really dismal performance week-on-week, month-on-month and still failing to capitalize on the Conservative weakness. I am glad you are in denial over this very poor position. |
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Post by No Offence Alan on Jan 21, 2022 13:15:32 GMT
🥱 change the record, you’re becoming boring with your delusional rants. This is not a rant but an observation. And I do not consider myself to be delusional about this. We are now 12-years into various forms of Conservative administrations and would expect Labour to be in the strong recovery seen by the Conservatives in 2009. Brexit and Covid have proved to be a challenge for the Conservatives for which they were ill-prepared and largely incompetent. The Johnson experience has been successful as to winning a GE and breaking an intolerable HOC log-jam hiatus, but in nothing else at all. The Johnson Conservatives have an incohate policy vacuum and are in an unholy mess of conflicting positions that make little sense to membership or electorate. Latterly the party management, the errors, the misstatements and the rule breaking of various sorts are demeaning, disappointing and very weakening. All that sets a perfect situation for an even half-competent Opposition to make huge strides and to hoover up anything even mildly marginal by a raft of by-election successes. From such successes Labour would expect to fall back in a GE campaign and hope to come out as good contender if not victor. But you persist is having a really dismal performance week-on-week, month-on-month and still failing to capitalize on the Conservative weakness. I am glad you are in denial over this very poor position. Labour are ahead of the Cons, but also the combined LD/Green vote is North of 15%, while RefUK are on 4/5%. These means Labour are much better placed to put a squeeze on the smaller parties in the Con/Lab marginals. |
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carlton43
Reform Party
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Post by carlton43 on Jan 21, 2022 13:20:24 GMT
This is not a rant but an observation. And I do not consider myself to be delusional about this. We are now 12-years into various forms of Conservative administrations and would expect Labour to be in the strong recovery seen by the Conservatives in 2009. Brexit and Covid have proved to be a challenge for the Conservatives for which they were ill-prepared and largely incompetent. The Johnson experience has been successful as to winning a GE and breaking an intolerable HOC log-jam hiatus, but in nothing else at all. The Johnson Conservatives have an incohate policy vacuum and are in an unholy mess of conflicting positions that make little sense to membership or electorate. Latterly the party management, the errors, the misstatements and the rule breaking of various sorts are demeaning, disappointing and very weakening. All that sets a perfect situation for an even half-competent Opposition to make huge strides and to hoover up anything even mildly marginal by a raft of by-election successes. From such successes Labour would expect to fall back in a GE campaign and hope to come out as good contender if not victor. But you persist is having a really dismal performance week-on-week, month-on-month and still failing to capitalize on the Conservative weakness. I am glad you are in denial over this very poor position. Labour are ahead of the Cons, but also the combined LD/Green vote is North of 15%, while RefUK are on 4/5%. These means Labour are much better placed to put a squeeze on the smaller parties in the Con/Lab marginals. But they are not making the massive gains one would expect over the past 14-months. |
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Post by andrewteale on Jan 21, 2022 13:21:52 GMT
Is there any possibility of further repercussions of the ballot paper mistake in Charnwood? The printers will have lost a lot of money on the job, and I expect the Electoral Commission will investigate what went wrong. However, I'll be surprised if this ends up before the Election Court for the reasons David gave. |
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Post by No Offence Alan on Jan 21, 2022 13:22:49 GMT
Labour are ahead of the Cons, but also the combined LD/Green vote is North of 15%, while RefUK are on 4/5%. These means Labour are much better placed to put a squeeze on the smaller parties in the Con/Lab marginals. But they are not making the massive gains one would expect over the past 14-months. Patterson, Peppa Pig and Partygate are much more recent than that. |
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peterl
Green
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Post by peterl on Jan 21, 2022 13:29:29 GMT
While this case will most likely not get to court as the result was not close enough, the 2015 Bournemouth petition (Baxter v Fear) does address similar issues if anyone is interested in seeing what might have happened if it had been closer.
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carlton43
Reform Party
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Post by carlton43 on Jan 21, 2022 13:36:51 GMT
Preston, Seton and Gosford. First preference numbers Lab 1793 SNP 1217 Con 1154 Green 231 LD 136 Ind 122 That is really a rather good Conservative vote in a ward I am familiar with. |
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Post by middleenglander on Jan 21, 2022 13:38:10 GMT
Charnwood: Skelthorpe - Labour hold both seats | Party | 2022 votes
top | 2022 votes
second | 2022 votes
average | 2022 share
average | since 2019
top | since 2019
average | since 2017
by-election | since 2015
top | since 2015
average | | Labour | 709 | 654 | 682 | 50.3% | +16.2% | +16.9% | +4.8% | +10.6% | +9.4% | | Conservative | 311 |
| 311 | 22.9% | -0.1% | +1.2% | -22.2% | -22.1% | -19.6% | | Independent | 149 |
| 149 | 11.0% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Liberal Democrat | 136 | 104 | 120 | 8.8% | -0.7% | -1.2% | +1.7% | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Green | 108 | 81 | 95 | 7.0% | -7.6% | -8.3% | from nowhere | -8.3% | -9.7% | | UKIP |
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| -13.4% | -14.1% | -2.2% |
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| | British Democratic |
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| -5.3% | -5.6% |
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| | Total votes | 1,413 | 839 | 1,356 |
| 60% | 63% | 104% | 37% | 40% |
Swing: Conservative to Labour 8¼% / 7¾% since 2019, 13½% since 2017 by-election and 16¼% / 14½% since 2015 Council now: 37 Conservative, 12 Labour, 2 Independent, 1 Green East Lindsey: Chapel St Leonards - Conservative hold | Party | 2022 votes | 2022 share | since 2021 B | since 2019 "top" | since 2019 "average" | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | | Conservative | 436 | 62.0% | -5.4% | +5.4% | +4.2% | +25.1% | +23.9% | | Independent Fenton | 267 | 38.0% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Labour |
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| -17.5% | -43.4% | -42.2% | -33.8% | -30.5% | | Skegness Urban DS |
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| -10.3% |
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| | Independent Walmesley |
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| -4.9% |
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| | Independent Newcombe |
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| -29.3% | -31.4% | | Total votes | 703 |
| 60% | 74% | 78% | 31% | 33% |
Swing: not meaningful Council now: 30 Conservative, 8 Independent, 6 Labour, 6 Skegness Urban District Society, 1 Liberal Democrat, 3 various other Independents , 1 vacancy East Lothian: Preston, Seton & Gosford - Labour hold based on first preference votes| Party | 2022 votes | 2022 share | since 2017 | since 2012 | since 2012 | | Labour | 1,793 | 38.5% | -4.2% | -15.7% | -4.8% | | SNP | 1,217 | 26.2% | -1.4% | -6.3% | -0.2% | | Conservative | 1,154 | 24.8% | +0.7% | +16.4% | +10.4% | | Green | 231 | 5.0% | +1.9% | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Liberal Democrat | 136 | 2.9% | +0.5% | -0.7% | -9.6% | | Independent Miller | 122 | 2.6% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | UKIP |
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| -1.4% |
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| -3.4% | | Total votes | 4,653 |
| 63% | 78% | 64% |
Swing: Labour to SNP 1½% since 2017, 4¾% since 2012 and 2¼% since 2007 - less meaningful Labour to Conservative 2½% since 2017, 16% since 2012 and 7½% since 2007 Council now: 9 Labour, 7 Conservative, 6 SNP Selby: Byram & Brotherton - Conservative gain from Yorkshire Party sitting as Conservative| Party | 2022 votes | 2022 share | since 2019 | since 2016 B | since 2015 | | Conservative | 215 | 48.1% | +13.4% | +3.8% | +15.5% | | Labour | 207 | 46.3% | +26.2% | +6.7% | +2.3% | | Green | 25 | 5.6% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Yorkshire / First |
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| -45.3% | -16.1% |
| | UKIP |
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| -23.4% | | Total votes | 447 |
| 63% | 79% | 30% |
Swing: not meaningful since 2019, 1½% Conservative to Labour since 2016 by-election but 6½% Labour to Conservative since 2015 Council now: 19 Conservative, 8 Labour, 3 Independent, 1 Yorkshire Party
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carlton43
Reform Party
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Post by carlton43 on Jan 21, 2022 13:38:47 GMT
But they are not making the massive gains one would expect over the past 14-months. Patterson, Peppa Pig and Partygate are much more recent than that. After 12-years and with drift, incompetence and dither they should not even need the latter dross events. |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jan 21, 2022 13:38:51 GMT
Though again, postal votes. Is this the last Scottish council byelection before May? Yes - I think so. Yes - postal votes may have a role, but also unionism will provide the Scottish Conservatives with some insulation from the fallout of the Westminster shambles. I'm not sure May will be that bad for them up here... Might be quite different situations depending on if it's a ward where they can expect to get a quota versus a ward where they're likely to need transfers. |
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carlton43
Reform Party
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Post by carlton43 on Jan 21, 2022 13:47:03 GMT
Every single member of the prediction competition predicted a Labour gain in Selby. There are obviously possible issues about herding there, but there was a general expectation that Labour would win. Too early to tell but I do wonder if the current drop in the Conservative poll numbers may not be totally reflected in Conservative local election performances, as Conservative voters might differentiate between the national shambles and their local council/ councillors. On a small sample like one week's by-election results that is almost certainly true - in a way it would need a big sample (like next May) to really measure the effect. I would believe the thinking in some parts of the Tory party to "wait to May to find out" is pretty ill-advised ( though I am happy to so advise them, for purely party political reasons). Already this year we have had a second complete whitewash of the Forum Brains Trust!!! I wonder if they should form a cricket side? |
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
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Post by Tony Otim on Jan 21, 2022 13:49:15 GMT
Stage 2 (Ind eliminated)
Lab 1815 (+22)
SNP 1242 (+25)
Con 1173 (+19)
Grn 241 (+10)
LD 154 (+18)
Stage 3:
Lab 1861 (+46)
SNP 1258 (+16)
Con 1204 (+31)
Grn 266 (+25)
Stage 4:
Lab 1927 (+66)
SNP 1391 (+133)
Con 1212 (+8)
Stage 5;
Lab 2390 (+463)
SNP 1458 (+67)
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