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Post by andrewp on Jan 21, 2022 10:41:27 GMT
Preston, Seton and Gosford. First preference numbers
Lab 1793
SNP 1217
Con 1154
Green 231
LD 136
Ind 122
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Post by matureleft on Jan 21, 2022 10:47:11 GMT
Every single member of the prediction competition predicted a Labour gain in Selby. There are obviously possibly issues about herding there, but there was a general expectation that Labour would win. Too early to tell but I do wonder if the current drop in the Conservative poll numbers may not be totally reflected in Conservative local election performances, as Conservative voters might differentiate between the national shambles and their local council/ councillors. Indeed. I've said it before and I'm sure I'll say it again: these are local elections. Of course there is some reflection of the national polling, probably more so in very large urban wards. But many electors (who actually vote - often a sadly small minority) bear in mind who the candidates are and what they know of them, the reputation of the local council, local issues, the quality of the various campaigns. It would be pretty bad news if they didn't! Thus local election results often tell us more about the state of the parties in that area. In this instance the poor turnout alone suggests a fairly stretched local Labour party which had probably not expected to win. |
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
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Post by Tony Otim on Jan 21, 2022 10:48:13 GMT
Very much suggests that they'll be little change in that ward in May with 2 Lab, 1 SNP and 1 Con elected as last time.
The Conservative vote holding up well, Labour a little down but with the loss of a long-standing incumbent, that's not a total surprise. Overall, it all feels quite static and I suspect that may be the case in quite a bit of Scotland in May too.
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Post by jm on Jan 21, 2022 11:05:19 GMT
East Lindsey - Chapel St Leonards
EVANS, Stephen Anthony (Conservative) - 436 (62%)
FENTON, David Philip (Independent) - 267 (38%)
Turnout 17.9%
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Post by yellowperil on Jan 21, 2022 11:09:38 GMT
Every single member of the prediction competition predicted a Labour gain in Selby. There are obviously possible issues about herding there, but there was a general expectation that Labour would win. Too early to tell but I do wonder if the current drop in the Conservative poll numbers may not be totally reflected in Conservative local election performances, as Conservative voters might differentiate between the national shambles and their local council/ councillors. On a small sample like one week's by-election results that is almost certainly true - in a way it would need a big sample (like next May) to really measure the effect. I would believe the thinking in some parts of the Tory party to "wait to May to find out" is pretty ill-advised ( though I am happy to so advise them, for purely party political reasons). |
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Post by La Fontaine on Jan 21, 2022 11:09:59 GMT
East Lothian final count (stage 5) Lab: 2390; SNP 1458.
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Post by yellowperil on Jan 21, 2022 11:12:44 GMT
They beat Chapel St Leonard’s by a few minutes. |
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Post by jm on Jan 21, 2022 11:15:26 GMT
Well, almost. East Lindsey haven't published the results online yet - I called the Elections Office and asked them.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jan 21, 2022 11:20:37 GMT
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jan 21, 2022 11:22:48 GMT
EAST LINDSEY Chapel St Leonards
EVANS, Stephen Anthony (The Conservative Party Candidate) 436
FENTON, David Philip (Independent) 267
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Post by andrew111 on Jan 21, 2022 11:27:44 GMT
carlton43 is correct. This ward was one of only three in Selby district to give Labour a lead in 2015 and did so then by a clear margin. Somebody said this is their highest vote share in this ward, but that is presumably 'since 2015' as the current ward boundaries have only existed since then. Prior to that Labour used to win overwhelmingly in this area - 80-90% in the 1990s. I wouldn't read too much into it but it isn't other than a poor result for Labour Well, I am not at all surprised at the Tory win here. Labour only won in 2015 because of a big UKIP vote, and the Yorkshire Party fish in the same pool as UKIP. Meanwhile Greens take a few Labour votes and it is a low turnout by-election where postal votes dominate. If I could be bothered with prediction competitions I would have forecast a Tory win, especially with the postal votes cast before the worst of current Tory woes.. |
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Post by andrewp on Jan 21, 2022 11:32:15 GMT
Every single member of the prediction competition predicted a Labour gain in Selby. There are obviously possible issues about herding there, but there was a general expectation that Labour would win. Too early to tell but I do wonder if the current drop in the Conservative poll numbers may not be totally reflected in Conservative local election performances, as Conservative voters might differentiate between the national shambles and their local council/ councillors. On a small sample like one week's by-election results that is almost certainly true - in a way it would need a big sample (like next May) to really measure the effect. I would believe the thinking in some parts of the Tory party to "wait to May to find out" is pretty ill-advised ( though I am happy to so advise them, for purely party political reasons). The last two weeks haven’t been wipeout territory either, but yes the scale of the May elections make them more of a national event. If they do wait until May to find out, then they deserve everything that will probably come to them. |
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Post by minionofmidas on Jan 21, 2022 11:37:55 GMT
full breakdown anywhere? (Presume we'll have to wait awhile yet for the Lothian preference flows) |
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Post by greenchristian on Jan 21, 2022 11:40:46 GMT
Every single member of the prediction competition predicted a Labour gain in Selby. There are obviously possibly issues about herding there, but there was a general expectation that Labour would win. Too early to tell but I do wonder if the current drop in the Conservative poll numbers may not be totally reflected in Conservative local election performances, as Conservative voters might differentiate between the national shambles and their local council/ councillors. Indeed. I've said it before and I'm sure I'll say it again: these are local elections. Of course there is some reflection of the national polling, probably more so in very large urban wards. But many electors (who actually vote - often a sadly small minority) bear in mind who the candidates are and what they know of them, the reputation of the local council, local issues, the quality of the various campaigns. It would be pretty bad news if they didn't! Thus local election results often tell us more about the state of the parties in that area. In this instance the poor turnout alone suggests a fairly stretched local Labour party which had probably not expected to win. And local by-elections are usually more locally-focused than regular local elections. A lower turnout usually means that a higher proportion of the electorate is aware of and cares about local issues and the candidates. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
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Post by The Bishop on Jan 21, 2022 11:41:10 GMT
carlton43 is correct. This ward was one of only three in Selby district to give Labour a lead in 2015 and did so then by a clear margin. Somebody said this is their highest vote share in this ward, but that is presumably 'since 2015' as the current ward boundaries have only existed since then. Prior to that Labour used to win overwhelmingly in this area - 80-90% in the 1990s. I wouldn't read too much into it but it isn't other than a poor result for Labour Well, I am not at all surprised at the Tory win here. Labour only won in 2015 because of a big UKIP vote, and the Yorkshire Party fish in the same pool as UKIP. Meanwhile Greens take a few Labour votes and it is a low turnout by-election where postal votes dominate. If I could be bothered with prediction competitions I would have forecast a Tory win, especially with the postal votes cast before the worst of current Tory woes.. This is the thing many are (in some cases deliberately) overlooking. How many of the votes in this one were actually postal votes? If so, the norm would have meant most of them being cast before the present scandal blew up (and the Tories only trailed Labour modestly in the polls) It is almost inconceivable that Labour did not carry this one comfortably on the day. |
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Post by yellowperil on Jan 21, 2022 11:50:55 GMT
Well, I am not at all surprised at the Tory win here. Labour only won in 2015 because of a big UKIP vote, and the Yorkshire Party fish in the same pool as UKIP. Meanwhile Greens take a few Labour votes and it is a low turnout by-election where postal votes dominate. If I could be bothered with prediction competitions I would have forecast a Tory win, especially with the postal votes cast before the worst of current Tory woes.. This is the thing many are (in some cases deliberately) overlooking. How many of the votes in this one were actually postal votes? If so, the norm would have meant most of them being cast before the present scandal blew up (and the Tories only trailed Labour modestly in the polls) It is almost inconceivable that Labour did not carry this one comfortably on the day.
You mean like 2 votes to 1? |
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Post by jollyroger93 on Jan 21, 2022 11:52:28 GMT
They beat Chapel St Leonard’s Considering the sheer shit storm we've had the past few weeks that is a very good result of the blues, and a half decent one for Labour considering they lost there long standing incumbent. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
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Post by The Bishop on Jan 21, 2022 11:54:15 GMT
East Lindsey is actually an objectively good Tory result - much more unambiguously so than the Selby one.
But it has previously been speculated that Lincolnshire might be one of the last parts of the country to abandon faith in Johnsonism.
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Post by andrew111 on Jan 21, 2022 11:56:52 GMT
On a small sample like one week's by-election results that is almost certainly true - in a way it would need a big sample (like next May) to really measure the effect. I would believe the thinking in some parts of the Tory party to "wait to May to find out" is pretty ill-advised ( though I am happy to so advise them, for purely party political reasons). The last two weeks haven’t been wipeout territory either, but yes the scale of the May elections make them more of a national event. If they do wait until May to find out, then they deserve everything that will probably come to them. Most seats in May were up in 2018, when Tories and Labour were both on ~ 40% with the Tories a couple of % ahead in the last week. Anything like current polls and the Tories will lose a lot of seats to whoever is in second place. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
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Post by The Bishop on Jan 21, 2022 12:01:51 GMT
Very much suggests that they'll be little change in that ward in May with 2 Lab, 1 SNP and 1 Con elected as last time. The Conservative vote holding up well, Labour a little down but with the loss of a long-standing incumbent, that's not a total surprise. Overall, it all feels quite static and I suspect that may be the case in quite a bit of Scotland in May too. Though again, postal votes. Is this the last Scottish council byelection before May? |
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