The problem is this is Trump we're talking about here. If he wants to run he will. He wont be dissuaded, cajoled, begged, blackmailed or anything else into not standing if he wants to. And with the current state of the GOP and its refusal to walk away from him after Jan 6th, it's hard to see anyone stopping him.
Even if they came to him with wads of evidence re russsia or more financial/personal scandals, he would just wave them away as "fake news" and his base would swallow it; so I dont even see how the "men in black suits" angle would work on him like it would almost any other politician.
The only person who will stop Trump from running again will be Donald Trump.
Well the polls seem to vary on 2024 match-ups at the minute - some have Trump narrowly beating Biden.
I think the polls can be disregarded at this stage; we don't know who's going to be the candidates for either major party. At this stage in the 2016 Presidential election cycle, no-one was thinking Trump could be the Republican candidate or that Bernie Sanders would run Hillary Clinton as close as he did. US Presidential polling only really starts to come into focus when the primaries start.