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Post by andrew111 on Jan 28, 2022 21:10:17 GMT
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,946
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Post by The Bishop on Jan 29, 2022 12:18:34 GMT
Well the polls seem to vary on 2024 match-ups at the minute - some have Trump narrowly beating Biden.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Feb 6, 2022 5:47:26 GMT
We are closer to the next Iowa caucus than the last.
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jamesg
Forum Regular
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Post by jamesg on Feb 6, 2022 19:18:49 GMT
I'll put this prediction out there now. Trump won't be a candidate come the 2024 election. There'll be all sorts of media drama but, for whatever reason, he won't run and thus won't be a candidate.
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Post by manchesterman on Feb 6, 2022 20:15:56 GMT
I suppose it depends on whether the GOP comes to its senses between now & then or continues to brown-tongue him publicly.
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Post by manchesterman on Feb 6, 2022 20:16:22 GMT
..which is not a sight anyone would like to see  |
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Post by johnloony on Feb 7, 2022 11:05:35 GMT
On one hand, I fear that the Republican Party is still in the grip of Trump supporters and that Trump is therefore likely to be the candidate in 2024.
On the other hand, I am hoping that Trump will have sufficient legal and financial problems such that it won’t be possible.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,946
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Post by The Bishop on Feb 7, 2022 11:08:07 GMT
I'll put this prediction out there now. Trump won't be a candidate come the 2024 election. There'll be all sorts of media drama but, for whatever reason, he won't run and thus won't be a candidate. Yes this is also my suspicion, even if its hard to articulate exactly why. I just think *something* will occur to stop it happening. |
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Post by manchesterman on Feb 7, 2022 15:24:05 GMT
The problem is this is Trump we're talking about here. If he wants to run he will. He wont be dissuaded, cajoled, begged, blackmailed or anything else into not standing if he wants to. And with the current state of the GOP and its refusal to walk away from him after Jan 6th, it's hard to see anyone stopping him.
Even if they came to him with wads of evidence re russsia or more financial/personal scandals, he would just wave them away as "fake news" and his base would swallow it; so I dont even see how the "men in black suits" angle would work on him like it would almost any other politician.
The only person who will stop Trump from running again will be Donald Trump.
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clyde1998
SNP
Green (E&W) member; SNP supporter
Posts: 1,765
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Post by clyde1998 on Feb 7, 2022 15:43:46 GMT
Well the polls seem to vary on 2024 match-ups at the minute - some have Trump narrowly beating Biden. I think the polls can be disregarded at this stage; we don't know who's going to be the candidates for either major party. At this stage in the 2016 Presidential election cycle, no-one was thinking Trump could be the Republican candidate or that Bernie Sanders would run Hillary Clinton as close as he did. US Presidential polling only really starts to come into focus when the primaries start. |
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maxque
Non-Aligned
Posts: 9,312
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Post by maxque on Feb 7, 2022 19:12:30 GMT
I'll put this prediction out there now. Trump won't be a candidate come the 2024 election. There'll be all sorts of media drama but, for whatever reason, he won't run and thus won't be a candidate. I had my own prediction before the 2020 election that one of Biden or Trump will be dead or too sick to be invoved in politics come the 2024 election. |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Feb 8, 2022 6:38:59 GMT
I'll put this prediction out there now. Trump won't be a candidate come the 2024 election. There'll be all sorts of media drama but, for whatever reason, he won't run and thus won't be a candidate. The last I heard investigations into his business’s finances and the accuracy (or otherwise) of its records was not looking very positive for Trump. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,946
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Post by The Bishop on Feb 8, 2022 13:10:09 GMT
The problem is this is Trump we're talking about here. If he wants to run he will I agree with that, my hunch remains however that something will happen to prevent him from doing so. |
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Post by manchesterman on Feb 8, 2022 13:19:26 GMT
I'll put this prediction out there now. Trump won't be a candidate come the 2024 election. There'll be all sorts of media drama but, for whatever reason, he won't run and thus won't be a candidate. The last I heard investigations into his business’s finances and the accuracy (or otherwise) of its records was not looking very positive for Trump. Unless he goes to jail I dont see this as an issue. Anyone know if there are rules disqualifying people from running for President if they have broken (a certain level of) the law?
Anyway, he boasted that he could shoot someone on 5th Avenue and not lose a single vote..and I actually believe him on that one!
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,946
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Post by The Bishop on Feb 8, 2022 13:23:52 GMT
Though the fact he actually lost in 2020 suggests that statement wasn't strictly true.....
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Post by manchesterman on Feb 8, 2022 14:06:48 GMT
to be clear, I meant from his "base" (Im not suggesting he won the election)  |
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clyde1998
SNP
Green (E&W) member; SNP supporter
Posts: 1,765
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Post by clyde1998 on Feb 8, 2022 14:12:30 GMT
The last I heard investigations into his business’s finances and the accuracy (or otherwise) of its records was not looking very positive for Trump. Unless he goes to jail I dont see this as an issue. Anyone know if there are rules disqualifying people from running for President if they have broken (a certain level of) the law?
Anyway, he boasted that he could shoot someone on 5th Avenue and not lose a single vote..and I actually believe him on that one!
What if the person he shot was going to vote for him? |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Feb 8, 2022 14:53:28 GMT
Though the fact he actually lost in 2020 suggests that statement wasn't strictly true..... 2016: 62,984,828 (46.1%) 2020: 74,216,914 (46.9%) Technically he didn't lose any. |
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stb12
Top Poster
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Post by stb12 on Feb 8, 2022 15:01:50 GMT
Was going to say the above myself, Trump actually did remarkably well with the number of votes he won especially considering his approval ratings never really got that high.
But the big turnout increase benefited Biden's ticket even more obviously and by just enough in the right states
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Post by grahammurray on Feb 8, 2022 15:06:41 GMT
Though the fact he actually lost in 2020 suggests that statement wasn't strictly true..... 2016: 62,984,828 (46.1%) 2020: 74,216,914 (46.9%) Technically he didn't lose any. Technically he could have lost all 70 million from 2016 and picked up 74 million different ones. |
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