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Post by Richard Cromwell on Dec 15, 2021 11:24:59 GMT
Lomond North, Argyll & Bute | SNP | 41% | | | CON | 40% | Win On Transfers | | Robert MacIntyre | 17% | | | Mark Irvine | 2% | |
Highfield, Ashford | GRN | 47% | | CON | 24% | | Ashford Independent | 21% | | LAB | 8% |
Caerau, Bridgend Roffey South, Horsham Armitage with Handsacre, Lichfield Rochester East, Medway North Ormesby, Middlesbrough Hexham East, Northumberland Dawley & Aqueduct, Telford & Wrekin Pleck, Walsall Tilehurst South & Holybrook, West Berkshire Nettleham, West Lindsey |
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Post by greenhert on Dec 15, 2021 17:30:11 GMT
Argyll & Bute UA, Lomond North (1st preferences): SNP 40, Conservative 37, Independent (MacIntyre) 18, Independent (Irvine) 5. Conservative hold on transfers.
Ashford DC, Highfield: Ashford Independent 42, Conservative 36, Green 16, Labour 6. Ashford Independent gain from Conservative.
Bridgend UA, Caerau: Labour 43, Independent (Davies) 33, Conservative 14, Plaid Cymru 10.
Horsham DC, Roffley South: Liberal Democrats 47, Conservative 41, Green 8, Labour 4. Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative.
Lichfield DC, Armitage with Handsacre: Labour 51, Conservative 49. Labour gain from Conservative.
Medway UA, Rochester East: Labour 50, Conservative 34, Green 11, Liberal Democrats 5.
Middlesbrough UA, North Ormesby: Independent (Horman) 57, Labour 34, Conservative 6, Liberal Democrats 3. Independent gain from MIG.
Northumberland UA, Hexham East: Liberal Democrats 45, Conservative 40, Labour 8, Independent (Willscroft-Ferris) 7. Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative.
Telford & The Wrekin UA, Dawley & Aqueudct: Labour 54, Conservative 40, Liberal Democrats 6.
Walsall MBC, Pleck: Labour 76, Conservative 24.
West Berkshire UA, Tilehurst South & Holybrook: Conservative 58, Liberal Democrats 24, Labour 18.
West Lindsey DC, Nettleham: Liberal Democrats 46, Conservative 41, Green 7, Labour 6. Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative.
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
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Post by Tony Otim on Dec 15, 2021 21:20:21 GMT
Argyll & Bute: Con 32.5; McIntyre 27.5; SNP 24.8; Irvine 15.2 (McIntyre to win on transfers)
Ashford: Grn 33.8; Ashford Ind 32.5; Con 28.9; Lab 4.9
Bridgend: Lab 44.7; Davies 28.8; PC 17.9; Con 8.6
Horsham: LD 45.2; Con 34.0; Grn 13.2; Lab 7.6
Lichfield: Con 52.8; Lab 47.2
Medway: Lab 58.9; Con 21.9; Grn 12.7; LD 6.5
Middlesbrough: Horkan 70.4; Lab 21.2; Con 5.6; LD 2.8
Northumberland: LD 38.9; Con 35.2; Williscroft-Ferris 14.6; Lab 11.3
Telford & wrekin: Lab 59.2; Con 36.0; LD 4.8
Walsall: Lab 73.3; Con 26.7
West Berkshire: Con 52.3; LD 25.7; Lab 22.0
West Lindsey: LD 48.4; Con 40.8; Lab 7.3; Grn 3.5
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Post by andrewp on Dec 15, 2021 21:38:32 GMT
Argyll and Bute, Lomond North, Con 35: SNP 33, Mcintryre 16, Irvine 16. Con win on transfers
Ashford, Highfield. Ash Ind 38, Con 30, Green 25, Lab 7
Bridgend, Caerau. Lab 47, Pc 28, Ind 20, Con 5
Horsham, Roffey South LD 47, Con 35, Lab 10, Green 8
Lichfield, Armitage with Handsacre. Con 60, Lab 40
Medway, Rochester East, Lab 52, Con 25, Green 15, LD 8
Middlesbrough, North Ormesby, Horkan 62, Lab 30, LD 4, Con 4
Northumberland, Hexham Est. LD 43, Con 35, Ind 13, Lab 9
Telford and Wrekin. Dawley and Aqueduct. Lab 57, Con 39, Ld 4
Walsall, Pleck. Lab 65, Con 35
West Berkshire, Tilehurst South and Holbrook. Con 50, Lab 32, LD 18
West Lindsey, Nettleham. LD 47, Con 33, Green 12, Lab 8
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Post by Robert Waller on Dec 15, 2021 22:47:35 GMT
Argyll & Bute: Con 35; McIntyre 20; SNP 30; Irvine 15 (Conservative to win on transfers)
Ashford: Grn 25; Ashford Ind 36; Con 34; Lab 5
Bridgend: Lab 43; Davies 30; PC 15; Con 12
Horsham: LD 46; Con 34; Grn 10; Lab 10
Lichfield: Con 60; Lab 40
Medway: Lab 54; Con 25; Grn 15; LD 6
Middlesbrough: Horkan 65; Lab 29; Con 3; LD 3
Northumberland: LD 40; Con 35; Williscroft-Ferris 12; Lab 13
Telford & Wrekin: Lab 59; Con 36; LD 5
Walsall: Lab 71; Con 29
West Berkshire: Con 50; LD 25; Lab 25
West Lindsey: LD 45; Con 38; Lab 10; Grn 7
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Post by jamesmanc22 on Dec 16, 2021 0:58:30 GMT
Argyll & Bute: Con 37;SNP 33;McIntyre 12 Irvine 8 (Conservative to win on transfers)
Ashford: Ashford Ind 50; Con 24;Lab 21
Grn 15
Bridgend: Lab 38; Davies 33; PC 20; Con 9
Horsham: LD 51; Con 52; Grn 8; Lab 7
Lichfield: Con 56; Lab 44
Medway: Lab 57; Con 28; Grn 12; LD 3
Middlesbrough: Horkan 47; Lab 39; Con 11; LD 3
Northumberland: LD 49; Con 25:Lab 18 Williscroft-Ferris 8
Telford & Wrekin: Lab 59; Con 36; LD 5
Walsall: Lab 61; Con 39
West Berkshire: Lib : 44 Cons 32 Lab 14
West Lindsey: Cons: 48 Lib 41 Lab 7; Grn 4
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Post by rightleaning on Dec 16, 2021 6:11:16 GMT
Argyll and Bute, Lomond North, Con 34, SNP 33, McIntryre 18, Irvine 15. Con win on transfers
Ashford, Highfield. Ash Ind 38, Con 32, Gn 24, Lab 6
Bridgend, Caerau. Lab 48, PC 25, Ind 20, Con 7
Horsham, Roffey South LD 44, Con 35, Lab 11, Gn 10
Lichfield, Armitage with Handsacre. Con 58, Lab 42
Medway, Rochester East, Lab 49, Con 26, Gn 19, LD 6
Middlesbrough, North Ormesby, Horkan 56, Lab 32, Con 8, LD 4,
Northumberland, Hexham Est. LD 42, Con 38, Ind 14, Lab 6
Telford and Wrekin. Dawley and Aqueduct. Lab 56, Con 38, LD 6
Walsall, Pleck. Lab 62, Con 38
West Berkshire, Tilehurst South and Holbrook. Con 48, Lab 34, LD 18
West Lindsey, Nettleham. LD 50, Con 31, Lab 11, Gn 8
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Post by iainbhx on Dec 16, 2021 7:03:27 GMT
Argyll & Bute SUA, Lomond North: SNP 35 Con 34 Ind MacIntyre 17 Ind Irvine 14 Con win on transfers
Ashford DC, Highfield : Ash Ind 38 Con 32 Grn 23 Lab 7
Bridgend WUA, Caerau : Ind 42 Lab 32 PC 21 Con 5
Horsham DC, Roffey South : LDm 48 Con 30 Lab 14 Grn 8
Lichfield DC, Armitage with Handsacre: Con 59 Lab 41
Medway DC, Rochester East: Lab 55 Con 26 Grn 14 LDm 5
Middlesbrough UA, North Ormesby: Ind 58 Lab 33 Con 6 LDm 3
Northumberland UA, Hexham East: LDm 44 Con 33 Lab 16 Ind 7
Telford & Wrekin UA, Dawley & Aqueduct: Lab 59 Con 34 LDm 7
Walsall MBC, Pleck : Lab 69 Con 31
West Berkshire UA, Tilehurst S & Holybrook: Con 48 Lab 28 LDm 24
West Lindsay DC: Nettleham: Con 42 LDm 40 Lab 12 Grn 6
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Toylyyev
Mebyon Kernow
CJ Fox avatar
Posts: 1,067 
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Post by Toylyyev on Dec 16, 2021 7:04:41 GMT
ARGYLL and BUTE UA, Lomond North: Conservative win on transfers.
Conservative 38.5, SNP 28.5, Independent Irvine 19, Independent MacIntyre 14.
ASHFORD DC, Highfield:
Conservative 21, Labour 6, Green 33, Ashford Independent 40.
BRIDGEND UA, Caerau:
Conservative 3, Labour 49, Plaid Cymru 19, Independent 29.
HORSHAM DC, Roffey South:
Conservative 28, Labour 7, Liberal Democrat 42, Green 23.
LICHFIELD DC, Armitage with Handsacre:
Conservative 49.9, Labour 50.1.
MEDWAY UA, Rochester East:
Conservative 31, Labour 54, Liberal Democrat 4, Green 11.
MIDDLESBROUGH UA, North Ormesby:
Conservative 4, Labour 39, Liberal Democrat 2, Independent 55.
NORTHUMBERLAND UA, Hexham East:
Conservative 30, Labour 8, Liberal Democrat 35, Independent 27.
TELFORD and WREKIN UA, Dawley and Aqueduct:
Conservative 50, Labour 46.5, Liberal Democrat 3.5.
WALSALL MBC, Pleck:
Conservative 40, Labour 60.
WEST BERKSHIRE UA, Tilehurst South and Holybrook:
Conservative 45, Labour 30, Liberal Democrat 25.
WEST LINDSEY DC, Nettleham:
Conservative 34 , Labour 7, Liberal Democrat 51, Green 8.
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Post by robbienicoll on Dec 16, 2021 22:56:26 GMT
12 entries this week, losing johnloony. All on time, with Tony Otim picking up 0.1 fault for going over in Ashford, DHAA 1 for going under in Argyll and jamesmanc22 38 for three infringements. Lomond North, Argyll and Bute: 6 have the Conservatives ahead on first preferences, 5 have the SNP ahead and andykernow has Ind (MacIntyre). 8 then have the Conservatives holding as ultimate winners, with DHAA and peterl SNP gain and andykernow and Tony Otim Ind (MacIntyre) gain. Highfield, Ashford: 9 Ashford Independent gain, with Richard Cromwell and Tony Otim Green gain, and DHAA Conservative hold. Caerau, Bridgend: 11 Labour hold, with iainbhx Ind (Davies) gain. Roffey South, Horsham: 11 Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative, with jamesmanc22 Conservative hold. Armitage with Handsacre, Lichfield: 9 Conservative hold, with greenhert, Richard Cromwell and Toylyyev Labour gain. Rochester East, Medway: 100% Labour hold, with majorities ranging from 16% (greenhert) to 37% (Toylyyev). North Ormesby, Middlesbrough: 100% Ind (Horkan) win, with majorities ranging from 8% (jamesmanc22) to 49.2% (Tony Otim). Hexham East, Northumberland: 11 Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative, with Richard Cromwell Conservative hold. Dawley and Aqueduct, Telford and Wrekin: 10 Labour hold, with DHAA and Toylyyev Conservative gain. Pleck, Walsall: 100% Labour hold, with majorities ranging from 20% (Toylyyev) to 56% (andykernow). Tilehurst South and Holybrook, West Berkshire: 11 Conservative hold, with jamesmanc22 Liberal Democrat gain. Nettleham, West Lindsey: 8 Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative, with DHAA, iainbhx, jamesmanc22 and Richard Cromwell Conservative hold. Results available at - docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1c6-E8p8nDyd3sI_2lZCGTgQWqrUupuWVL-jfPhP0B8s/edit?usp=sharing - good luck to all! |
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Dec 17, 2021 13:26:26 GMT
Congratulations to Robert Waller for the week; but I think the only way Toylyyev can lose the month is by not entering next week. |
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Post by greenhert on Dec 17, 2021 15:13:41 GMT
In future, I feel it is worth suggesting that: given that 100 faults are applied to predictors who failed to submit predictions for one or more by-elections during a particular week during a month in which they submitted at least one set of predictions, and that election predictions with multiple fault totals greater than 100 without penalties (or with only the "wrong winner penalty" applied) are exceptionally rare as to be a nonissue (e.g. that of Ormesby, Middlesbrough), all fault totals for a particular by-election prediction are capped at 100 for each by-election, and that predictions for by-elections where candidates were found to be ineligible before the date of the by-election but after having been declared validly nominated ( as was the case in Pleck, Walsall) be discounted completely for the purposes of the prediction competition.
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
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Post by Tony Otim on Dec 20, 2021 10:01:02 GMT
Bransgore & Burley: Grn 31.5; Frampton 30.0; Con 29.3; Lab 9.2
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Post by andykernow on Dec 22, 2021 13:15:42 GMT
NEW FOREST DC; Bransgore & Burley (Con resigned)
BRAMLEY, Lucy Joanna (Green) 31.5%
FRAMPTON, Richard Leslie (Independent) 15.3%
HOWARD, Sarah Anne (Conservative) 34.9%
SWYER, James Nigel (Labour) 18.3%
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Post by andrewp on Dec 22, 2021 13:20:26 GMT
New Forest. Bransgore and Burley. Ind 42, Con 31, Green 20. Lab 7
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Post by greenhert on Dec 22, 2021 14:24:42 GMT
New Forest DC, Bransgore & Burley: Independent (Frampton) 43, Conservative 30, Green 19, Labour 8.
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Post by Richard Cromwell on Dec 22, 2021 16:07:27 GMT
Bransgore & Burley, New Forest |
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Post by iainbhx on Dec 22, 2021 17:08:19 GMT
New Forest DC, Bransgore & Burley: Ind Frampton 38 Con 30 Grn 22 Lab 10
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Post by Robert Waller on Dec 22, 2021 17:41:42 GMT
New Forest DC, Bransgore & Burley:
Ind Frampton 37 Con 31 Grn 26 Lab 6
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Post by kevinf on Dec 22, 2021 22:07:48 GMT
New Forest DC, Bransgore and Burley
Ind. 55
Con. 28
Lab. 9
Green 8
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