Prediction Competition - December 2021

[Tony Otim]

As there isn't a thread yet, I'll start one to put these here.

Hillside - Con 58.5; Lab 31.6; Grn 9.9
Hermitage - Con 52.0; LD 23.4; Lab 20.6; WPB 4.0
Fort William & Ardnamurchan - SNP 32.3; McKenna 28.6; Con 14.8; Matheson 8.7; LD 6.7; Grn 4.8; Drayton 4.1 (McKenna to win on transfers)
Bare - MBI 36.9; Con 29.2; Lab 17.3; Grn 9.1; LD 7.5;
Upper Lune Valley - LD 43.2; Con 39.2; Lan 8.9; Grn 8.7
Victoria - Lab 63.2; LD 25.1; Con 11.7
Stalham - LD 55.3; Con 32.9; Lab 11.8
Whitnash - WRA 54.3; Lab 22.2; Con 10.8; Grn 10.5; LD 2.2
Hartfield - Grn 52.8; Con 47.2
Marine - Lab 49.6; Con 37.5; Grn 8.0; LD 4.9

[peterl]

Hillside - Con 57; Lab 35; Grn 8
Hermitage - Con 46; LD 27; Lab 24; WPB 3
Fort William & Ardnamurchan - SNP 36; McKenna 29; Con 12; Matheson 11; LD 5; Grn 4; Drayton 3 (McKenna to win on transfers)
Bare - MBI 36; Con 32; Lab 16; Grn 10; LD 6
Upper Lune Valley - LD 45; Con 39; Green 9; Lab 7
Victoria - Lab 60; LD 27; Con 13
Stalham - LD 52; Con 34; Lab 14
Whitnash - WRA 55; Lab 19; Grn 12; Con 11; LD 3
Hartfield - Grn 54; Con 46
Marine - Lab 50; Con 35; Grn 9; LD 6

[robbienicoll]

Thanks Tony, had meant to put this up earlier but work has been hectic. I'll post the full spiel at some point before Thursday.

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

ADUR DC; Hillside
Conservative – 63%
Labour – 30%
Green – 7%

BRECKLAND DC; Hermitage
Conservative – 66%
Labour – 26%
Liberal Democrat – 7%
Workers Party of Britain – 1%

HIGHLAND UA; Fort William & Ardnamurchan

McKENNA, Andy (Independent) – 28.5% (ahead on first vote)

SNP - 28.5%

Conservative – 17%

Liberal Democrat – 9 %

Green – 7%

MATHESON, Joanne (Independent) – 6.5%

DRAYTON, Mark (No Description) – 3.5%

McKENNA, Andy (Independent) – win on transfers

LANCASTER DC; Bare
Morecambe Bay Independents – 33%
Conservative – 28%
Labour – 18%
Liberal Democrat – 12%
Green – 9%

LANCASTER DC; Upper Lune Valley
Liberal Democrat – 45.1
Conservative – 44.9%
Labour – 7%
Green – 3%

NEWPORT UA; Victoria
Labour – 58.5%
Liberal Democrat – 29%
Conservative – 12.5%

NORTH NORFOLK DC; Stalham
Liberal Democrat -52%
Conservative – 30%
Labour - 18%

WARWICK DC; Whitnash
Whitnash Residents Association – 50%
Labour – 20%
Conservative – 14%
Green – 11%
Liberal Democrats – 5%

WEALDEN DC; Hartfield
Conservative – 51%
Green – 49%

WORTHING DC; Marine
Conservative – 45%
Labour- 44%
Green – 6%
Liberal Democrat – 5%

[andrewp]

Adur, Hillside Con 54, Lab 36, Green 10
Breckland. Hermitage, Con 64, Lab 21, LD 14, WP 1
Highland. Fort William and Ardnamurchan, MCKenna 30, SNP 26, Drayton 12, Con 10, LD 8, Green 7, Mathewson 7. MCKenna win.
Lancaster, Bare. MBI 35, Con 28, Lab 21, LD 9, Green 7
Lancaster, Upper Lune Valley. LD 46, Con 39, Lab 9, Green 6
Newport. Victoria. Lab 56, LD 25, Con 19
North Norfolk. Stalham. LD 52, Con 38, Lab 10
Warwick, Whitnash. Res 52, Lab 24, Con 12: Green 8, LD 4
Wealden, Hartfield. Green 58, Con 42
Worthing, Marine. Lab 50: Con 38, Green 7, LD 5

[greenhert]

Adur DC, Hillside: Conservative 54, Labour 38, Green 8.
Breckland DC, Hermitage: Conservative 57.5, Labour 26, Liberal Democrats 15, Workers' Party 1.5.
Highland UA, Fort William & Ardnmamurchan (1st preferences): SNP 30, Conservative 25, Liberal Democrats 17, Independent (McKenna) 15, Green 8, Independent (Matheson) 5. SNP gain from Conservative on transfers.
Lancaster DC, Bare: Morecambe Bay Independents 39, Conservative 30, Labour 19, Liberal Democrats 6.5, Green 5.5.
Lancaster DC, Upper Lune Valley: Liberal Democrats 45, Conservative 43, Green 7, Labour 5. Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative.
Newport UA, Victoria: Labour 58, Liberal Democrats 22, Conservative 20.
North Norfolk DC, Stalham: Liberal Democrats 50, Conservative 45, Labour 5.
Warwick DC, Whitnash: Whitnash Residents' Association 53, Labour 23, Conservative 14, Green 6, Liberal Democrats 4.
Wealden DC, Hartfield: Green 55, Conservative 45. Green gain from Conservative.
Worthing BC, Marine: Labour 49, Conservative 38, Green 8, Liberal Democrats 5. Labour gain from Conservative.

[iainbhx]

Adur DC, Hillside : Con 56 Lab 32 Grn 12
Breckland DC, Hermitage: Con 62 Lab 25 LDm 12 WBP 1
Highland SUA, Fort William & Ardnamurchan: SNP 35 Ind McKenna 22 Con 15 Grn 12 LDm 9 Ind Matheson 4 Non-Enscrit Drayton 3 SNP win on transfer
Lancaster DC, Bare : MBI 37 Con 27 Lab 17 LDm 11 Grn 8
Lancaster DC, Upper Lune Valley: LDm 45 Con 44 Grn 7 Lab 4
Newport WUA, Victoria : Lab 52 Con 28 LDm 20
North Norfolk DC, Stalham : Con 45 LDm 43 Lab 12
Warwick DC, Whitnash, WRA 53, Lab 24, Grn 12 Con 7 LDm 4
Wealden DC, Hartfield: Con 52 Grn 48
Worthing DC, Marine : Lab 47 Con 43 Grn 6 LDm 4

[Richard Cromwell]

Hillside, Adur

LAB	38%
CON	34%
GRN	28%

Hermitage, Breckland

CON	55%
LAB	33%
LD	12%
Workers	0%

Fort William & Ardnamurchan, Highland

SNP	30%
Andy McKenna	23%	Win On Transfers
CON	21%
GRN	11%
LD	9%
Joanne Matheson	5%
No Description	1%

Bare, Lancaster

LAB	32%
Morecambe Bay	24%
CON	19%
GRN	15%
LD	10%

Upper Lune Valley, Lancaster

LD	48%
CON	34%
GRN	10%
LAB	8%

Victoria, Newport

LAB	42%
CON	32%
LD	26%

Stalham, North Norfolk

CON	43%
LD	40%
LAB	17%

Whitnash, Warwick

Residents	65%
CON	13%
LAB	11%
GRN	8%
LD	3%

Hartfield, Wealden

GRN	61%
CON	39%

Marine, Worthing

LAB	38%
CON	37%
GRN	21%
LD	4%

[Robert Waller]

Adur, Hillside Con 51, Lab 35, Green 14
Breckland. Hermitage, Con 61, Lab 18, LD 18, WP 3
Highland. Fort William and Ardnamurchan, McKenna 28, SNP 30, Drayton 13, Con 13, LD 7, Green 7, Matheson 2. McKenna wins after transfers.
Lancaster, Bare. MBI 36, Con 33, Lab 13, LD 9, Green 9
Lancaster, Upper Lune Valley. LD 44, Con 42, Lab 7, Green 7
Newport. Victoria. Lab 58, LD 28, Con 14
North Norfolk. Stalham. LD 45, Con 43, Lab 12
Warwick, Whitnash. Res 46, Lab 26, Con 15, Green 9, LD 4
Wealden, Hartfield. Green 51, Con 49
Worthing, Marine. Lab 49: Con 38, Green 9, LD 4

[rightleaning]

Adur, Hillside C 51, Lab 33, Gn 16
Breckland. Hermitage, C 58, LD 21, Lab 19, WP 2
Highland. Fort William and Ardnamurchan, SNP 32, McKenna 29, Con 15, Drayton 12, LD 6, Gn 4, Matheson 2. McKenna wins after transfers.
Lancaster, Bare. MBI 38, C 34, Lab 11, Gn 10, LD 7
Lancaster, Upper Lune Valley. C 45, LD 42, Gn 8, Lab 5
Newport. Victoria. Lab 55, LD 29, C 16
North Norfolk. Stalham. LD 47, C 42, Lab 11
Warwick, Whitnash. Res 48, Lab 22, C 17, Gn 9, LD 4
Wealden, Hartfield. C 53, Gn 47
Worthing, Marine. Lab 46, C 38, Gn 10, LD 6

[andykernow]

ADUR - Hillside - Con Hold

Conservative - 55%
Labour - 35%
Green - 19%

BRECKLAND - Hermitage - Con Hold

Conservative - 63%
Labour - 28%
Liberal Democrat - 8%
Workers Party - 1%

HIGHLAND - Fort William - SNP Gain from Conservative on Transfers

SNP - 28%
Ind Mc - 24%
Conservative - 22%
Liberal Democrat - 12%
Ind Ma - 8%
Green - 4%
No Descr- 2%

LANCASTER - Bare - MBI Gain from Con

Morcambe ~Bay Ind - 35.2%
Conservative - 31.5%
Labour - 20%
Liberal Democrat - 7%
Green - 6.3%

LANCASTER - Upper Lune - Liberal Democrat gain from Con

Liberal Democrat - 36%
Conservative - 35%
Green - 15%
Labour - 14%

NEWPORT - Victoria - Labour Hold

Labour - 61%
Conservative - 24%
Liberal Democrat - 15%

NORTH NORFOLK - Stalham - Liberal Democrat Hold

Liberal Democrat - 48%
Conservative - 39%
Labour - 13%

WARWICK - Whitnash - WRA Hold

WRA - 42%
Labour - 29%
Green - 15%
Conservative - 9%
Liberal Democrat - 5%

WEALDEN - Hartfield - Green Gain from Conservative

Green - 52%
Conservative - 48%

WORTHING - Marine - Conservative Hold

Conservative - 42%
Labour - 40%
Green - 10%
Liberal Democrat - 8%

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

Dec 1, 2021 21:23:34 GMT greenhert said:

Adur DC, Hillside: Conservative 54, Labour 38, Green 8.
Breckland DC, Hermitage: Conservative 57.5, Labour 26, Liberal Democrats 15, Workers' Party 1.5.
Highland UA, Fort William & Ardnmamurchan (1st preferences): SNP 30, Conservative 25, Liberal Democrats 17, Independent (McKenna) 15, Green 8, Independent (Matheson) 5. SNP gain from Conservative on transfers.
Lancaster DC, Bare: Morecambe Bay Independents 39, Conservative 30, Labour 19, Liberal Democrats 6.5, Green 5.5.
Lancaster DC, Upper Lune Valley: Liberal Democrats 45, Conservative 43, Green 7, Labour 5. Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative.
Newport UA, Victoria: Labour 58, Liberal Democrats 22, Conservative 20.
North Norfolk DC, Stalham: Liberal Democrats 50, Conservative 45, Labour 5.
Warwick DC, Whitnash: Whitnash Residents' Association 53, Labour 23, Conservative 14, Green 6, Liberal Democrats 4.
Wealden DC, Hartfield: Green 55, Conservative 45. Green gain from Conservative.
Worthing BC, Marine: Labour 49, Conservative 38, Green 8, Liberal Democrats 5. Labour gain from Conservative.

greenhert you seem to be missing the no description candidate in the highlands

[Toylyyev]

ADUR DC, Hillside:
Conservative 65, Labour 25, Green 10.

BRECKLAND DC, Hermitage:
Conservative 65, Labour 15, Liberal Democrat 19, Workers Party of Britain 1.

HIGHLAND UA, Fort William and Ardnamurchan: Independent McKenna win on transfers.
Conservative 17, Liberal Democrat 5, Green 15.5, SNP 32, Drayton 6, Independent Matheson 4, Independent McKenna 20.5.

LANCASTER DC, Bare:
Conservative 24, Labour 14, Liberal Democrat 24.1, Green 23.9, Morecambe Bay Independents 14.
Upper Lune Valley:
Conservative 40, Labour 6.5, Liberal Democrat 48.5, Green 5.

NEWPORT UA, Victoria:
Conservative 20, Labour 58, Liberal Democrat 22.

NORTH NORFOLK DC, Stalham:
Conservative 41.5, Labour 16, Liberal Democrat 42.5.

WARWICK DC, Whitnash:
Conservative 10, Labour 26, Liberal Democrat 2, Green 9, Whitnash Residents Association 53.

WEALDEN DC, Hartfield:
Conservative 45, Green 55.

WORTHING DC, Marine:
Conservative 36, Labour 57, Liberal Democrat 2.5, Green 4.5.

[Robert Waller]

I believe Robbie said he is very busy this week, so, tentatively, in advance of the official findings, I think with only Highland to come:
Toylyyev has already opened up a very significant lead, mainly due to a brilliant prediction in Lancaster Bare ward where he identified the (to the rest of us unlikely) top places for the LDs and Greens.
I think the next two in the standing are currently peterl and Tony Otim.

[Tony Otim]

Well, I think we all absolutely ballsed up Fort William by drastically overestimating the independent vote.

[andrewp]

Dec 3, 2021 16:03:18 GMT Tony Otim said:

Well, I think we all absolutely ballsed up Fort William by drastically overestimating the independent vote.

Yes, there are going to be some big scores there. I thought that one of the Independents ticked all the right boxes to win comfortably. 

[Toylyyev]

Dec 3, 2021 13:39:36 GMT Robert Waller said:

I believe Robbie said he is very busy this week, so, tentatively, in advance of the official findings, I think with only Highland to come:
Toylyyev has already opened up a very significant lead, mainly due to a brilliant prediction in Lancaster Bare ward where he identified the (to the rest of us unlikely) top places for the LDs and Greens.
I think the next two in the standing are currently peterl and Tony Otim .

 The higher LibDem estimate in Bare may have been caused by regrets about forgetting to look for recent Parish Council results in Kidderminster last week.. 

www.lancasterguardian.co.uk/news/people/lib-dems-celebrate-double-win-on-morecambe-town-council-3476299
www.lancs.live/news/lancashire-news/liberal-democrats-win-big-across-21388919

Dec 3, 2021 16:03:18 GMT Tony Otim said:

Well, I think we all absolutely ballsed up Fort William by drastically overestimating the independent vote.

greenhert came closest with a 20 points prediction for a result of 14.7.

[robbienicoll]

Apologies for the lengthy delay, had hoped to get the following out far earlier but combination of work, trains and wifi didn't agree.

There appears to be 30 by-elections during December.

- 10 by-elections on 2 December
- 7 on 9 December
- 12 on 16 December
- 1 on 23 December

17 by-elections are for District Councils, 15 last contested in 2019 and 2 in May
6 are for Unitary Authorities, 2 last contested in May (1 of which was a by-election) and 4 in 2019 (the authority with the by-election in May last had a regular election this year as well)
3 are for Metropolitan Councils last contested in May
2 are for Welsh authorities last contested in 2017
2 are for Scottish authorities last contested in 2017

Conservatives defend 21 of the by-election seats, 7 following the death of the previous councillor, 13 a resignation (2 of whom were sitting as Independents and a further 1 as an Independent Conservative) and 1 disqualification
Labour defend 5 seats, 3 following the death of the previous councillor and 2 a resignation
Liberal Democrats defend 1 seat following a resignation
Independents defend 1 seat following a disqualification
Whitnash Residents Association and Middlesbrough Independent Group defend 1 seat apiece (although MIG haven't put a candidate up for theirs), both following resignations

With all candidates declared there is a full slate of 30 Conservative candidates, 26 Labour, 20 Liberal Democrats, 16 Greens, 2 SNP, 2 Rotherham Democratic Party, 2 Yorkshire Party, 1 Plaid Cymru, 1 Worker’s Party of Britain, 1 Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition, 1 Whitnash Residents Association, 1 Morecambe Bay Independent and 1 Ashford Independent along with 12 Independents and 2 No Descriptions contesting 10 seats
- a total of 119 candidates for 30 seats.

Predictions on this thread at 9.00am on the day of the election - and results to be published promptly!

[robbienicoll]

11 entries to open December, with iainbhx returning and losing agbutler. All on time, with andykernow receiving 9 faults for going over in Adur. 

Hillside, Adur: 10 Conservative hold, with Richard Cromwell Labour gain. (Iainbhx wins with 23.8).
Hermitage, Breckland: 100% Conservative hold, with majorities ranging from 19% (peterl) to 46% (Toylyyev). (Peterl wins with 27.9).
Fort William and Ardnamurchan, Highland: 6 have the combination of SNP leading on first preferences with Ind (McKenna) ultimately winning after transfers, andykernow, greenhert and iainbhx have the SNP leading on first prefs and winning after transfers, and andrewp and DHAA have Ind (McKenna) leading on first prefs and winning after transfers. (Iainbhx wins with 28.4).
Bare, Lancaster: 9 Morecambe Bay Independent gain from Conservative, with Richard Cromwell Labour gain and Toylyyev Liberal Democrat gain. (Toylyyev wins with 27.5 - potentially prediction of the year).
Upper Lune Valley, Lancaster: 10 Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative, with Right Leaning Conservative hold. (Toylyyev wins with 29.2).
Victoria, Newport: 100% Labour hold, with majorities ranging from 10% (Richard Cromwell) to 38.1% (Tony Otim). (Tony Otim wins with 4.6).
Stalham, North Norfolk: 9 Liberal Democrat hold, with iainbhx and Richard Cromwell Conservative gain. (Iainbhx wins with 20.4).
Whitnash, Warwick: 100% Whitnash Residents Association hold, with majorities ranging from 13% (andykernow) to 52% (Richard Cromwell). (Toylyyev wins with 9.6).
Hartfield, Wealden: 8 Green gain from Conservative, with DHAA, iainbhx and Right Leaning Conservative hold. (Greenhert and Toylyyev tie for first with 1.6 each).
Marine, Worthing: 9 Labour gain from Conservative, with andykernow and DHAA Conservative hold. (andrewp wins with 3.2).

Full results available at - docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1NIBCvIJyYF1xuONHhFAsAeI1crliKbuCVVAKpAwPUz0/edit?usp=sharing - and congratulations to Toylyyev on a very strong start to the month.

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

Oh well  bad week, so quickly on to

BRACKNELL FOREST UA; Old Bracknell
Labour – 52%
Conservative – 48%

ROTHERHAM MBC; Anston & Woodsetts
Conservative – 27%
Liberal Democrat – 19%
Labour – 16%
IRELAND, Jonathan Charles (Independent) – 14%
JEPSON, Clive Robert (Independent) – 11%
Rotherham Democratic Party – 6%
Yorkshire Party – 4%
Green – 3%

ROTHERHAM MBC; Aughton & Swallownest
Labour – 34.6%
Conservative – 33%
Rotherham Democratic Party – 17%
TUSC – 4.4%
Liberal Democrat - 5%
Yorkshire Party – 3.5%
Green – 2.5 %

TONBRIDGE & MALLING DC; Castle
Green – 47%
Conservative – 46%
Labour – 7%

TONBRIDGE & MALLING DC; Kings Hill

Independent – 44.2%
Conservative – 43.8%
Liberal Democrat - 12%

TONBRIDGE & MALLING DC; West Malling & Leybourne
Liberal Democrat - 46.1
Conservative – 45.9
Labour – 5%
Green – 3%

TORRIDGE DC; Northam
No Description – 37%
Conservative – 30%
Labour- 16%
Liberal Democrat – 13%
Green – 4%