Prediction Competition - December 2021

[andykernow]

Bad week also, so more in hope than expectation....

BRACKNELL FOREST - Old Bracknell - Labour Gain from Conservative

Labour - 52%
Conservative - 48%

ROTHERHAM - Anston - Conservative Hold

Conservative - 38%
Liberal Democrat - 20%
Labour - 18%
Yorkshire Party - 8%
Independent J - 7%
Independent I - 4%
Rotherham Democratic Party - 3%
Green - 2%

ROTHERHAM - Aughton - Labour Gain from Conservative

Labour - 32%
Conservative - 30%
Rotherham Democratic Party - 15%
Liberal Democrat - 11%
Yorkshire Party - 7%
Green - 4%
TUSC - 1%

TONBRIDGE - Castle - Conservative Hold

Conservative - 62%
Labour - 20%
Green - 18%

TONBRIDGE - Kingshill - Independent Gain from Conservative

Independent - 42%
Conservative - 38%
Liberal Democrat - 20%

TONBRIDGE - West Malling - Liberal Democrat Gain from Conservative

Liberal Democrat - 43%
Conservative - 38%
Labour - 10%
Green - 9%

TORRIDGE - Northam - No Description Gain from Independent

No Description - 38%
Conservative - 30%
Liberal Democrat - 18%
Green - 10%
Labour 4%

[Tony Otim]

What a tough week!
Old Bracknell: Con 51.6; Lab 48.4
Anston & Woodsetts: Con 29.4; LD 25.3; Lab 20.3; Jepson 9.0; RDP 5.3; Ireland 5.0; Grn 4.1; YP 1.6
Aughton & swallownest: Lab 37.8; Con 30.2; RDP 14.0; LD 6.7; TUSC 4.1; YP 3.9; Grn 3.3
Castle: Con 47.2; Grn 44.5; Lab 8.3
King's Hill: Con 56.8; LD 33.1; Westlake 10.1
West Malling & Leybourne: LD 41.7; Con 40.3; Grn 12.0; Lab 6.0
Northam: Con 37.3; Tennant 23.4; LD 15.3; Lab 12.6; Grn 11.4

[peterl]

BRACKNELL FOREST - Old Bracknell - Labour Gain from Conservative

Labour - 54%
Conservative - 46%

ROTHERHAM - Anston - Lib Dem Gain from Conservative

Liberal Democrat - 30%
Conservative - 29%
Labour - 16%
Yorkshire Party - 8%
Independent Jepson - 6%
Green - 5%
Independent Ireland - 4%
Rotherham Democratic Party - 2%

ROTHERHAM - Aughton - Labour Gain from Conservative

Labour - 37%
Conservative - 33%
Rotherham Democratic Party - 11%
Liberal Democrat - 8%
Yorkshire Party - 5%
Green - 4%
TUSC - 2%

TONBRIDGE - Castle - Conservative Hold

Conservative - 49%
Green - 33%
Labour - 18%

TONBRIDGE - Kingshill - Independent Gain from Conservative

Independent - 44%
Conservative - 38%
Liberal Democrat - 18%

TONBRIDGE - West Malling - Liberal Democrat Gain from Conservative

Liberal Democrat - 42%
Conservative - 38%
Green - 14%
Labour - 6%

TORRIDGE - Northam - No Description Gain from Independent

No Description - 39%
Conservative - 29%
Liberal Democrat - 15%
Green - 12%
Labour 5%

[johnloony]

BRACKNELL FOREST Old Bracknell: Lab 61 Con 39
ROTHERHAM Anston & Woodsetts: LD 39 Con 26 Lab 20 IndJ 7 IndI 5 Grn 2 YP 1 RDP 0
ROTHERHAM Aughton & Swallownest: Lab 50 Con 38 Grn 5 YP 3 TUSC 2 LD 1 RDP 1
TONBRIDGE & MALLING Castle: Con 50 Lab 30 Grn 20
TONBRIDGE & MALLING Kings Hill: Con 45 Ind 35 LD 20
TONBRIDGE & MALLING West Malling & Leybourne: Con 40 LD 30 Grn 20 Lab 10
TORRIDGE Northam: (-) 40 Con 30 Lab 10 LD 10 Grn 10
NEW FOREST Bransgore & Burley: Con 58 Grn 20 Ind 12 Lab 10

[jamesmanc22]

BRACKNELL FOREST - - Labour Gain from Conservative

Labour - 58%
Conservative - 42%

ROTHERHAM - Anston - Labour Gain

Labour - 28%
Conservative - 27%
Lib dems - 18%
Yorkshire Party - 9%
Independent J - 6%
Independent I - 5%
Rotherham Democratic Party - 4%
Green - 3%

ROTHERHAM - Aughton - Labour Gain

Labour - 42%
Conservative - 20%
Rotherham Democratic Party - 13%
Liberal Democrat - 13%
Yorkshire Party - 6%
Green - 5%
TUSC - 1%

TONBRIDGE - Castle - Conservative Hold

Conservative - 52%
Green - 28%
Labour -20%

TONBRIDGE - Kingshill - Independent Gain from Conservative

Independent - 55%
Conservative - 38%
Liberal Democrat - 7%

TONBRIDGE - West Malling - Liberal Democrat Gain from Conservative

Liberal Democrat - 53%
Conservative - 38%
Labour - 5%
Green - 4%

TORRIDGE - Northam - Independent Gain from Independent

No Description - 52%
Conservative - 30%
Liberal Democrat - 9%
Green - 5%
Labour 4%

[Richard Cromwell]

Old Bracknell, Bracknell Forest

LAB	64%
CON	36%

Anston & Woodsetts, Rotherham

LDM	25%
LAB	21%
Jonathan Ireland	14%
CON	12%
GRN	10%
Clive Jepson	9%
Yorkshire	8%
Rotherham Democratic	1%

Aughton & Swallownest, Rotherham

LAB	60%
LDM	15%
CON	11%
GRN	10%
Yorkshire	3%
Rotherham Democratic	1%
TUSC	0%

Castle, Tonbridge

GRN	52%
LAB	25%
CON	23%

Kings Hill, Tonbridge

IND	39%
CON	32%
LDM	29%

West Malling, Tonbridge

LDM	49%
GRN	22%
CON	16%
LAB	13%

Northam, Torridge

LDM	30%
GRN	27%
CON	16%
No Description	14%
LAB	13%

[andrewp]

This is a beast of a week!

Bracknell Forest. Old Bracknell. Lab 54, Con 46
Rotherham. Anston and Woodsetts. LD 26, Lab 23, Con 22, Jepson 10, Ireland 7, RDP 6, Yorks 4, Green 2
Rotherham. Aughton and Swallownest. Lab 43, Con 26, RDP 14, LD 7, Yorks 6, Green 3, TUSC 1
Tonbridge and Malling Castle. Green 53, Con 39. Lab 8
Tonbridge and Malling, Kings Hill. Con 55, LD 30, Ind 15
Tonbridge and Malling, West Malling and Leybourne. LD 48, Con 39, Green 7, Lab 6
Torridge, Northam. Tennant 30, LD 29, Con 23, Green 10, Lab 8

[greenhert]

Bracknell Forest DC, Old Bracknell: Labour 52, Conservative 48. Labour gain from Conservative.
Rotherham MBC, Anston & Woodsetts: Liberal Democrats 28, Conservative 23, Labour 20, Independent (Jepson) 8.5, Independent (Ireland) 7.5, Rotherham Democratic Party 5, Yorkshire Party 5, Green 3. Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative.
Rotherham MBC, Aughton & Swallownest: Labour 40, Conservative 33, Yorkshire Party 8.5, Rotherham Democratic Party 7, Liberal Democrats 6.5, Green 4, TUSC 1. Labour gain from Conservative.
Tonbridge & Malling DC, Castle: Green 54, Conservative 40, Labour 6. Green gain from Conservative.
Tonbridge & Malling DC, Kings Hill: Conservative 49, Liberal Democrats 33, Independent (Westlake) 18.
Tonbridge & Malling DC, West Malling & Leybourne: Liberal Democrats 47, Conservative 42, Green 6, Labour 5. Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative.
Torridge DC, Northam: Timothy Tennant (No Description) 38, Conservative 24, Liberal Democrats 20, Green 13, Labour 5. No Description gain from Independent.

[Robert Waller]

Bracknell Forest. Old Bracknell. Lab 49, Con 51
Rotherham. Anston and Woodsetts. LD 28, Lab 20, Con 26, Jepson 8, Ireland 5, RDP 5, Yorks 4, Green 4
Rotherham. Aughton and Swallownest. Lab 41, Con 28, RDP 14, LD 7, Yorks 5, Green 4, TUSC 1
Tonbridge and Malling Castle. Green 55, Con 39, Lab 6
Tonbridge and Malling, Kings Hill. Con 57, LD 33, Ind 10
Tonbridge and Malling, West Malling and Leybourne. LD 57, Con 28, Green 10, Lab 5
Torridge, Northam. Tennant 25, LD 30, Con 28, Green 8, Lab 9

[iainbhx]

Bracknell Forest DC, Old Bracknell: Lab 54, Con 46
Rotherham MBC, Anston & Woodsetts : LDm 24.5, Con 22.5, Lab 22, Ind (Jepson) 12.5, Yorkshire 6.5, Rother Dem 5.5, Ind (Ireland) 4.5, Grn 2
Rotherham MBC, Aughton & Swallowsnest: Lab 38, Con 30.5, Roth Dem 15.5, Yorkshire 7, LDm 4, Grn 3, TUSC 2
Tonbridge & Malling DC, Castle : Con 42, Grn 39, LDm 19
Tonbridge & Malling DC, Kings Hill: Con 47, LDm 39, Ind 14
Tonbridge & Malling DC, West Malling & Leybourne: LDm 42, Con 34, Grn 15, Lab 9
Torridge DC, Northam: No Description (Tennant) 41, LDm 21, Con 18, Lab 10.5, Grn 9.5

[rightleaning]

Bracknell Forest. Old Bracknell. Lab 53, C 47,
Rotherham. Anston and Woodsetts. LD 28, C 26, Lab 20, Jepson 8, Ireland 5, RDP 5, Yorks 4, Gn 4
Rotherham. Aughton and Swallownest. Lab 42, Con 30, RDP 13, LD 5, Yorks 5, Gn 4, TUSC 1
Tonbridge and Malling Castle. Gn 52, Con 42, Lab 6
Tonbridge and Malling, Kings Hill. Con 52, LD 38, Ind 10
Tonbridge and Malling, West Malling and Leybourne. LD 45, Con 37, Gn 12, Lab 6
Torridge, Northam. LD 30, Con 28, Tennant 28, Gn 8, Lab 6

[Toylyyev]

BRACKNELL FOREST UA, Old Bracknell:
Conservative 47, Labour 53.

ROTHERHAM MBC, Anston and Woodsetts:
Conservative 26, Labour 14, Liberal Democrat 25.9, Green 6, Yorkshire Party 8.1, Rotherham Democratic Party 5, Independent Ireland 6, Independent Jepson 9.
Aughton and Swallownest:
Conservative 28, Labour 38, Liberal Democrat 5, Green 6.5, Yorkshire Party 10, Rotherham Democratic Party 10, TUSC 2.5.

TONBRIDGE and MALLING DC, Castle:
Conservative 35, Labour 15, Green 50.
Kings Hill:
Conservative 55, Liberal Democrat 10, Independent 35.
West Malling and Leybourne:
Conservative 45, Labour 5, Liberal Democrat 37.5, Green 12.5.

TORRIDGE DC, Northam:
Conservative 23, Labour 5, Liberal Democrat 29, Green 21.5, Tennant 21.5.

[robbienicoll]

13 entries this week, with johnloony returning and jamesmanc22 with a maiden appearance. All on time, with johnloony receiving 2 faults for only getting to 98 in Anston.

Old Bracknell, Bracknell Forest: 11 Labour gain from Conservative, with Robert Waller and Tony Otim Conservative hold.
Anston and Woodsetts, Rotherham: 7 Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative, with andykernow, DHAA, johnloony, Tony Otim and Toylyyev Conservative hold and jamesmanc22 Labour gain.
Aughton and Swallownest, Rotherham: 100% Labour gain from Conservative, with majorities ranging from 2% (andykernow) to 45% (Richard Cromwell).
Castle, Tonbridge and Malling: 7 Green gain from Conservative, with andykernow, iainbhx, jamesmanc22, johnloony, peterl and Tony Otim Conservative hold.
Kings Hill, Tonbridge and Malling: 8 Conservative hold, with andykernow, DHAA, jamesmanc22, peterl and Richard Cromwell Ind (Westlake) gain.
West Malling and Leybourne, Tonbridge and Malling: 11 Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative, with johnloony and Toylyyev Conservative hold.
Northam, Torridge: 8 No Description (Tennant) win, with Richard Cromwell, Right Leaning, Robert Waller and Toylyyev Liberal Democrat gain from Independent, and Tony Otim Conservative gain.

Results are available at - docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/14YbTM21VLCIbMbFQaA_IMQdZNWyqCfBtaVVVDCQ1mWc/edit?usp=sharing - good luck to all!

[Tony Otim]

Congratulations to greenhert for the week.

[robbienicoll]

I'd missed that iainbhx had included a phantom Lib Dem in Castle instead of Labour, which as per previous rulings means that the prediction only added up to 81 and therefore 19 faults attributed in addition to the overall score. Whilst it actually didn't make a huge difference as 0 for Labour was not too far off, I'll be looking at maybe amending this rule ahead of January as I don't really enjoy having to be so harsh on that sort of thing. This doesn't affect the weekly or monthly scores, with congratulations to greenhert and Toylyyev for their respective leads.

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

For the 16th

ARGYLL & BUTE UA; Lomond North
SNP – 35%
Conservative – 34%
MacINTYRE, Robert (Independent) – 20%
IRVINE, Mark (Independent) – 10%
SNP win on transfers

ASHFORD DC; Highfield
Conservative – 38%
Ashford Independent – 31%
Green – 25%
Labour – 6%

BRIDGEND UA; Caerau
Labour – 44%
Independent – 35%
Plaid Cymru – 17%
Conservative – 4%

HORSHAM DC; Roffey South
Liberal Democrat – 45%
Conservative – 40%
Labour - 11%
Green – 4%

LICHFIELD DC; Armitage with Handsacre
Conservative – 60%
Labour – 40%

MEDWAY UA; Rochester East
Labour – 52%
Conservative – 25%
Green – 16%
Liberal Democrat – 7%

MIDDLESBROUGH UA; North Ormesby
Independent – 45%
Liberal Democrat - 28.5
Labour – 22%
Conservative – 4.5%

NORTHUMBERLAND UA; Hexham East
Liberal Democrat – 42%
Conservative – 38%
Labour – 17%
Independent – 3%

TELFORD & WREKIN UA; Dawley & Aqueduct
Conservative – 48.8%
Labour – 46.2%
Liberal Democrat – 5%

WALSALL MBC; Pleck
Labour – 72%
Conservative – 28%

WEST BERKSHIRE UA; Tilehurst South & Holybrook
Conservative – 60%
Labour -25%
Liberal Democrat – 15%

WEST LINDSEY DC; Nettleham
Conservative - 44%
Liberal Democrat – 43.9%
Green – 8%
Labour - 4.1%

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

For the 23rd

NEW FOREST DC; Bransgore & Burley:
Independent – 37%
Conservative – 30%
Green – 20%
Labour – 13%

[peterl]

ARGYLL & BUTE UA; Lomond North
SNP – 35%
Conservative – 30%
MacINTYRE, Robert (Independent) – 27%
IRVINE, Mark (Independent) – 8%
SNP win on transfers

ASHFORD DC; Highfield
Ashford Independent – 36%
Conservative – 30%
Green – 27%
Labour – 7%

BRIDGEND UA; Caerau
Labour – 49%
Independent – 36%
Plaid Cymru – 12%
Conservative – 3%

HORSHAM DC; Roffey South
Liberal Democrat – 48%
Conservative – 37%
Labour - 10%
Green – 5%

LICHFIELD DC; Armitage with Handsacre
Conservative – 58%
Labour – 42%

MEDWAY UA; Rochester East
Labour – 55%
Conservative – 25%
Green – 15%
Liberal Democrat – 5%

MIDDLESBROUGH UA; North Ormesby
Independent – 44%
Liberal Democrat - 32%
Labour – 19%
Conservative – 5%

NORTHUMBERLAND UA; Hexham East
Liberal Democrat – 44%
Conservative – 34%
Labour – 18%
Independent – 4%

TELFORD & WREKIN UA; Dawley & Aqueduct
Labour – 50%
Conservative – 46%
Liberal Democrat – 4%

WALSALL MBC; Pleck
Labour – 70%
Conservative – 30%

WEST BERKSHIRE UA; Tilehurst South & Holybrook
Conservative – 58%
Labour -25%
Liberal Democrat – 17%

WEST LINDSEY DC; Nettleham
Liberal Democrat – 45%
Conservative - 41%
Green – 10%
Labour - 4%

[peterl]

For the 23rd

NEW FOREST DC; Bransgore & Burley:
Independent – 39%
Conservative – 27%
Green – 24%
Labour – 10%

[andykernow]

ARGYLL & BUTE - Lomond - IND M Gain from Cons on Transfer

IND M - 32%
SNP - 31%
CON - 28%
IND I - 9%

ASHFORD - Highfield - Ashfield Independent gain from Cons

Ashfield Ind - 32%
Conservative - 29%
Labour - 24%
Green - 15%

BRIDGEND - Caeraw - Labour Hold

Labour - 38%
Independent - 29%
Plaid Cymru - 21%
Conservative - 12%

HORSHAM - Rofley - Lib Dem Gain from Con

Lib Dem - 42%
Conservative - 32%
Labour - 15%
Green - 11%

LICHFIELD - Armitage - Conservative Hold

Conservative - 58%
Labour - 42%

MEDWAY - Rochester East - Labour Hold

Labour - 51%
Green - 22%
Conservative - 19%
Lib Dem - 8%

MIDDLESBOROUGH - North Ormesby - Ind Gain from MIG

Independent - 59%
Labour - 20%
Lib Dem - 14%
Conservative - 7%

NORTHUMBERLAND - Hexham East - Lib Dem Gain from Con

Lib Dem - 39%
Conservative - 31%
Labour - 20%
Independent - 10%

TELFORD & THE WREKIN - Dailey - Labour Hold

labour - 48%
Conservative - 43%
Lib Dem - 9%

WALSALL - Pleck - Labour Hold

Labour - 78%
Conservative - 22%

WEST BERKSHIRE - Tilehurst - Conservative Hold

Conservative - 43%
Liberal Democrat - 30%
Labour - 27%

WEST LINDSEY - Nettleholm - Lib Dem Gain from Conservative

Lib Dem - 42%
Conservative - 34%
Green - 13%
Labour - 11%