ricmk
Lib Dem
Posts: 2,433
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Post by ricmk on Jun 14, 2024 9:03:55 GMT
I confess I've never heard of her until this, but Laura Anne Jones AM has been subject to a bullying enquiry, which has revealed some creativity around expenses and WhatsApp messages needing a lot of explaining: www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cpvvl16v4e5oI see she sits for South East Wales, so presumably she'd be aware what happened to Chris Davies in Brecon when he messed around with expense claims.
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Jun 14, 2024 9:09:48 GMT
List member so there'd be no by-election. Next list candidate is Matthew Evans who's a councillor in Newport and former Council leader.
But dear god, unless there's some context that we're not seeing those texts/whatsapps are damning and what a complete idiot she is.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 37,353
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 14, 2024 10:01:14 GMT
Given everything that is happening I think we can say with some confidence the following: The first by-election of the new Parliament will be Richmond and Northallerton, caused by the resignation of Rishi Sunak MP, following the defeat of the Conservative government. Then, dependent on whether he is elected or not, the next one will be Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr, due to the investigation over that election bet by Craig Williams. You assume the Tories will win Montgomeryshire & Glyndwr and Richmond & Northallerton! He wasn't actually assuming the former
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Harry Hayfield
Green
Cavalier Gentleman (as in 17th century Cavalier)
Posts: 2,847
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Jun 24, 2024 6:21:30 GMT
On Reddit this morning, a poster has suggested that these will be the first year's worth of by-elections in choronological order
By the start of the autumn: Richmond and Northallerton (Rishi Sunak resigns as Conservative MP after new leader elected at party conference) By the end of the year: Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr (Craig Williams is recalled as Conservative MP over betting scandal)
Then noting information about age and the current polling, they expect a by-election to take place at sometime during this parliament in the constituencies of Motherwell (SNP candidate aged 75), Hackney South and Stoke Newington (Lab candidate aged 71) and if he is re-elected as an Independent Islington North (candidate aged 75) citing the example of Merthyr Tydfil in 1970 when S O Davies was re-elected as the Independent Labour candidate at the age of 81 only to die two years later
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Jun 24, 2024 6:36:54 GMT
We've long since agreed not to discuss any impending deaths, Harry.
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weld
Non-Aligned
Posts: 3,376
Member is Online
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Post by weld on Jun 24, 2024 6:40:49 GMT
We've long since agreed not to discuss any impending deaths, Harry. Yes. When I was 18, I suggested there would almost certainly be a Manchester Gorton by-election. Then Kaufman died. I bitterly regret saying it. RIP Kaufman.
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Post by finsobruce on Jun 24, 2024 6:42:39 GMT
On Reddit this morning, a poster has suggested that these will be the first year's worth of by-elections in choronological order By the start of the autumn: Richmond and Northallerton (Rishi Sunak resigns as Conservative MP after new leader elected at party conference) By the end of the year: Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr (Craig Williams is recalled as Conservative MP over betting scandal) Then noting information about age and the current polling, they expect a by-election to take place at sometime during this parliament in the constituencies of Motherwell (SNP candidate aged 75), Hackney South and Stoke Newington (Lab candidate aged 71) and if he is re-elected as an Independent Islington North (candidate aged 75) citing the example of Merthyr Tydfil in 1970 when S O Davies was re-elected as the Independent Labour candidate at the age of 81 only to die two years later Whatever I think of Jeremy Corbyn he's not S O Davies. Correalation is not causation and all that.
His health is much better and he didn't work in the mines from the age of twelve. Also, Davies is widely thought to have been nearer 88 than 81 when he died.
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Post by froome on Jun 24, 2024 7:13:42 GMT
On Reddit this morning, a poster has suggested that these will be the first year's worth of by-elections in choronological order By the start of the autumn: Richmond and Northallerton (Rishi Sunak resigns as Conservative MP after new leader elected at party conference) By the end of the year: Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr (Craig Williams is recalled as Conservative MP over betting scandal) Then noting information about age and the current polling, they expect a by-election to take place at sometime during this parliament in the constituencies of Motherwell (SNP candidate aged 75), Hackney South and Stoke Newington (Lab candidate aged 71) and if he is re-elected as an Independent Islington North (candidate aged 75) citing the example of Merthyr Tydfil in 1970 when S O Davies was re-elected as the Independent Labour candidate at the age of 81 only to die two years later I am 71. I certainly hope (and expect) to be around in 5 years time!
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Post by John Chanin on Jun 24, 2024 7:29:10 GMT
We've long since agreed not to discuss any impending deaths, Harry. No we haven't. This is a longstanding bugbear of yours, which has received some lukewarm support from others. If an MP or other assembly member is ailing and it is politically significant there is no reason to censor any mention of the fact.
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Post by carolus on Jun 24, 2024 7:39:31 GMT
On Reddit this morning, a poster has suggested that these will be the first year's worth of by-elections in choronological order By the start of the autumn: Richmond and Northallerton (Rishi Sunak resigns as Conservative MP after new leader elected at party conference) By the end of the year: Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr (Craig Williams is recalled as Conservative MP over betting scandal) Then noting information about age and the current polling, they expect a by-election to take place at sometime during this parliament in the constituencies of Motherwell (SNP candidate aged 75), Hackney South and Stoke Newington (Lab candidate aged 71) and if he is re-elected as an Independent Islington North (candidate aged 75) citing the example of Merthyr Tydfil in 1970 when S O Davies was re-elected as the Independent Labour candidate at the age of 81 only to die two years later Whatever I think of Jeremy Corbyn he's not S O Davies. Correalation is not causation and all that.
His health is much better and he didn't work in the mines from the age of twelve. Also, Davies is widely thought to have been nearer 88 than 81 when he died.
Also, 2024 is not 1970!
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Jun 24, 2024 7:42:53 GMT
We've long since agreed not to discuss any impending deaths, Harry. No we haven't. This is a longstanding bugbear of yours, which has received some lukewarm support from others. If an MP or other assembly member is ailing and it is politically significant there is no reason to censor any mention of the fact. I've always disagreed, as you know. Something about it has always felt off. Standing at the edge of the bed with too many glances at your watch, sitting downstairs going through the jewellery box, measuring the curtains, patting the hand with a creased, insincere smile.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jun 24, 2024 7:56:24 GMT
No we haven't. This is a longstanding bugbear of yours, which has received some lukewarm support from others. If an MP or other assembly member is ailing and it is politically significant there is no reason to censor any mention of the fact. I've always disagreed, as you know. Something about it has always felt off. Standing at the edge of the bed with too many glances at your watch, sitting downstairs going through the jewellery box, measuring the curtains, patting the hand with a creased, insincere smile. How does you 'always disagreed' with a proposition become 'we've [all] long since agreed' ?
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Post by johnloony on Jun 24, 2024 8:00:22 GMT
On Reddit this morning, a poster has suggested that these will be the first year's worth of by-elections in choronological order By the start of the autumn: Richmond and Northallerton (Rishi Sunak resigns as Conservative MP after new leader elected at party conference) By the end of the year: Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr (Craig Williams is recalled as Conservative MP over betting scandal) Then noting information about age and the current polling, they expect a by-election to take place at sometime during this parliament in the constituencies of Motherwell (SNP candidate aged 75), Hackney South and Stoke Newington (Lab candidate aged 71) and if he is re-elected as an Independent Islington North (candidate aged 75) citing the example of Merthyr Tydfil in 1970 when S O Davies was re-elected as the Independent Labour candidate at the age of 81 only to die two years later I am old enough to remember that when by-elections are caused by the deaths of MPs, they are usually middle-aged (50 or 60 something) rather than the oldest MPs. Most MPs don’t die until after they retire, and the MPs who do die while they are still in office die of short-term illnesses.
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Jun 24, 2024 8:27:18 GMT
On Reddit this morning... Request please to cite credible sources, not a random chap sat in his pants posting anonymously online during the night. they expect a by-election to take place at sometime during this parliament in the constituencies of Motherwell (SNP candidate aged 75), Hackney South and Stoke Newington (Lab candidate aged 71) and if he is re-elected as an Independent Islington North (candidate aged 75) citing the example of Merthyr Tydfil in 1970 when S O Davies was re-elected as the Independent Labour candidate at the age of 81 only to die two years later Harry mate, you are well known for being slightly eccentric but can you maybe think before posting? As for the reference to Merthyr in the early 70s finsobruce says Correalation is not causation etc
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Post by batman on Jun 24, 2024 9:16:22 GMT
The SNP won't hold Motherwell.
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Post by manchesterman on Jun 24, 2024 9:51:40 GMT
On Reddit this morning, a poster has suggested that these will be the first year's worth of by-elections in choronological order By the start of the autumn: Richmond and Northallerton (Rishi Sunak resigns as Conservative MP after new leader elected at party conference) By the end of the year: Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr (Craig Williams is recalled as Conservative MP over betting scandal)Then noting information about age and the current polling, they expect a by-election to take place at sometime during this parliament in the constituencies of Motherwell (SNP candidate aged 75), Hackney South and Stoke Newington (Lab candidate aged 71) and if he is re-elected as an Independent Islington North (candidate aged 75) citing the example of Merthyr Tydfil in 1970 when S O Davies was re-elected as the Independent Labour candidate at the age of 81 only to die two years later Given current polling, it's not inconceivable (although less than 50/50 I accept) that their respective electorates on July 4th decide not to return either or both of those gentlemen to the HoC anyway, making said by-elections a non-issue.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 37,353
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 24, 2024 10:42:48 GMT
Well as far as Hackney South and Stoke Newington is concerned, I just hope that Abbott proves wrong those who wanted her to stand aside on health grounds.
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weld
Non-Aligned
Posts: 3,376
Member is Online
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Post by weld on Jun 24, 2024 10:49:11 GMT
The Greens would win a Hackney North & Stoke Newington by-election I feel. It just requires a 13% swing from the 2023 mayoral election. Labour's support in a band of wards from Clissold, Stoke Newington, Hackney Downs, Shacklewell etc isn't as rock solid as it used to be and the Hackney Greens are well-organised. Hackney North candidate Antoinette Fernandez for the Greens is a good representative of the Black community and would inherit much of the Diane Abbott vote IMHO.
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nyx
Non-Aligned
Posts: 698
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Post by nyx on Jun 24, 2024 11:13:31 GMT
For the first by-elections of the parliament– around half of the MPs will be new, serving in parliament for the first time.
I'm sure there will be one "Jared O'Mara" out of the bunch.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 37,353
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 24, 2024 11:40:03 GMT
I confess I've never heard of her until this, but Laura Anne Jones AM has been subject to a bullying enquiry, which has revealed some creativity around expenses and WhatsApp messages needing a lot of explaining: www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cpvvl16v4e5oI see she sits for South East Wales, so presumably she'd be aware what happened to Chris Davies in Brecon when he messed around with expense claims. Back in her previous stint as an AM she was seen as a "Great Young Hope" for the Tories, but it never quite happened.
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