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Post by where2travel on Apr 5, 2024 11:10:43 GMT
It's fair to say though that the Hazel Grove seat which was created in 1974 (and won by Winstanley at the first election that year) was the main successor to the previous Cheadle seat he had represented. All of it had been included in that seat and formed the majority of the old seat, whereas the 'new' Cheadle seat created in 1974 had annexed Wilmslow. Edit: In other words the 1974 Hazel Grove, was effectively the old Cheadle seat, less Cheadle (& Gatley) itself. I hadn't realised key changes happened over the two 1974/83 changes (with minor amendments since then) - in 1983 Cheadle lost the Wilmslow part it had since 1974, but gained Bramhall/Woodford from Hazel Grove?
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Apr 5, 2024 11:13:15 GMT
It's fair to say though that the Hazel Grove seat which was created in 1974 (and won by Winstanley at the first election that year) was the main successor to the previous Cheadle seat he had represented. All of it had been included in that seat and formed the majority of the old seat, whereas the 'new' Cheadle seat created in 1974 had annexed Wilmslow. Edit: In other words the 1974 Hazel Grove, was effectively the old Cheadle seat, less Cheadle (& Gatley) itself. I hadn't realised key changes happened over the two 1974/83 changes (with minor amendments since then) - in 1983 Cheadle lost the Wilmslow part it had since 1974, but gained Bramhall/Woodford from Hazel Grove? Correct. And at the same time Hazel Grove gained Great Moor (correspondingly roughly to the Offerton ward of today) from Stockport South
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nyx
Non-Aligned
Posts: 596
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Post by nyx on Apr 5, 2024 11:41:21 GMT
I think Labour would be foolhardy to throw a lot at Hazel Grove if it were to happen, in the same way I thought Mid Beds was foolhardy was us. The simple truth is that, at the moment, the majority of the electorate only care about who is the best vote to defeat the Conservatives. In Mid Beds, that position was up for grabs. Labour successfully used early polling, backed up by a large and early campaigning effort, to establish themselves, and no amount of LD campaigning could undo that. The inverse would be true in Hazel Grove - the LDs simply have too much evidence and history for any amount of Labour campaign to supplant the LDs as the challengers to the Tories. I suspect they could get themselves into 2nd, but would find a very hard upper ceiling of 25%. I'm inclined to disagree with this- if Labour were to achieve a strong second place comfortably ahead of the Tories, that would cement the seat as a competitive LD vs Lab seat and allow them to fairly seriously contest the general election (especially because the general election will be held on boundaries more favourable for Labour).
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Post by johnloony on Apr 5, 2024 11:53:00 GMT
I'm a bit surprised that William Wragg hasn't resigned already, and I think he will within a day or two.
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Post by johnloony on Apr 5, 2024 11:54:39 GMT
I imagine the national party will also ship them in by the bus load. Is that the Liberal Democrats' idea of an integrated transport policy?
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
Posts: 14,629
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Post by john07 on Apr 5, 2024 12:13:06 GMT
I think Labour would be foolhardy to throw a lot at Hazel Grove if it were to happen, in the same way I thought Mid Beds was foolhardy was us. The simple truth is that, at the moment, the majority of the electorate only care about who is the best vote to defeat the Conservatives. In Mid Beds, that position was up for grabs. Labour successfully used early polling, backed up by a large and early campaigning effort, to establish themselves, and no amount of LD campaigning could undo that. The inverse would be true in Hazel Grove - the LDs simply have too much evidence and history for any amount of Labour campaign to supplant the LDs as the challengers to the Tories. I suspect they could get themselves into 2nd, but would find a very hard upper ceiling of 25%. I certainly agree with most of the above. The problem for Labour is that there is such a history of anti-Tory tactical voting by Labour supporters and even members in the area going back 50 years or more, that it will be difficult to break the habit. This happened in local elections more so than general elections. The odd pockets of Labour support such as Bredbury, Woodley, Adswood, and the Midland Road estate (Manchester overspill) in Bramhall were subject to tactical voting. When I stood in 1979, we had a serious go at the Midland Road estate and while many the older generation were prepared to return to Labour, the same could not be said of their children who had grown up Bramhall. It's a question of what impact the addition of Manor ward will have to Hazel Grove. Very little, I suspect as it has usually been marginal, initially between Labour and Conservative and subsequently between Lib Dem/Alliance/SLD and Labour. A by-election would give Labour a free hit to put some resources into the seat and have a go at taking advantage of the Tory meltdown and finishing second behind the Lib Dems. That might provide the platform to eliminate tactical voting from the mindset in future elections.
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ilerda
Conservative
Posts: 1,042
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Post by ilerda on Apr 5, 2024 13:12:26 GMT
My instinct is he’s actually quite shameless for all his public propriety posturing. And he’ll sit it out to the end of the Parliament on the basis that an election is happening within 6 months and he’s already announced his intention to stand down then.
Plus he’s trying to paint himself as a victim in all of this.
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Post by Wisconsin on Apr 5, 2024 13:36:17 GMT
He is a victim.
He’s just also a fool and made an extremely unwise and dangerous decision for which he should resign.
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Apr 5, 2024 16:12:58 GMT
I'm currently in a pub in Chorley. Just walked to the bar. Old fella holding court:
"So he's getting bummed for six months and now shares telephone numbers like nobody's business and he gets to keep his job and pension"
I zipped up my coat and kept schtum.
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Post by finsobruce on Apr 5, 2024 17:23:05 GMT
I'm currently in a pub in Chorley. Just walked to the bar. Old fella holding court: "So he's getting bummed for six months and now shares telephone numbers like nobody's business and he gets to keep his job and pension" I zipped up my coat and kept schtum.Probably for the best.
What beer was on?
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Apr 5, 2024 17:34:44 GMT
I'm currently in a pub in Chorley. Just walked to the bar. Old fella holding court: "So he's getting bummed for six months and now shares telephone numbers like nobody's business and he gets to keep his job and pension" I zipped up my coat and kept schtum.Probably for the best.
What beer was on?
It's the Taproom for Ben's Brewery so only theirs. I had the Mosaic.
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Post by finsobruce on Apr 5, 2024 17:36:09 GMT
Probably for the best.
What beer was on?
It's the Taproom for Ben's Brewery so only theirs. I had the Mosaic. The Mosaic? I see a pattern emerging here...
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Apr 5, 2024 17:56:04 GMT
It's the Taproom for Ben's Brewery so only theirs. I had the Mosaic. The Mosaic? I see a pattern emerging here... It all fits together!
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Post by johnloony on Apr 5, 2024 18:21:38 GMT
The BBCnews reports should stop telling us that William Wragg is a “senior MP”. He was born after I first voted.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Apr 5, 2024 18:32:00 GMT
285 out of 649 current MPs began their Parliamentary service before him, so he's in the top half of MPs by length of service. He also has four years of experience as a Select Committee Chair. While not among the most senior, I think it's not unreasonable to regard Wragg as having seniority.
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Apr 5, 2024 18:36:20 GMT
Same length of time as an MP as the PM and is only 7 years younger too.
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Post by batman on Apr 5, 2024 18:40:00 GMT
It is true however that MPs are increasingly routinely described as senior when they really aren't at all.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Apr 5, 2024 18:42:08 GMT
Also vice-chairman of the 1922
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Apr 5, 2024 18:47:33 GMT
He is fairly senior, though I agree it's a moniker used far too often.
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Post by batman on Apr 5, 2024 19:45:54 GMT
Senior, but fairly young.
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