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Post by evergreenadam on Mar 24, 2024 9:27:51 GMT
One factor I've not considered is the boundary change. A great chunk of North is being moved into South and perhaps it's too much of a headache for all involved -from Blackpool Council to local party members - to be invested in the cost of a byelection for a seat that'll be altered within three -six months. Interestingly the notional result for the new Blackpool South suggests the boundary changes won’t make much of an impact on the result at the GE.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Mar 24, 2024 10:35:00 GMT
The literal certainty of going to the polls again in a few months didn't seem to bother Wirral South voters in early 1997, nor did it mean the seat wasn't keenly contested.
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carolus
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Post by carolus on Mar 24, 2024 10:48:33 GMT
I think it would be a pretty terrible democratic outcome to leave a constituency without representation for such weak reasons. Just hold the byelection, and if Sunak decides he wants to hold a GE then the byelection can be cancelled as per Manchester Gorton.
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graham
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Post by graham on Mar 25, 2024 10:41:02 GMT
I think it would be a pretty terrible democratic outcome to leave a constituency without representation for such weak reasons. Just hold the byelection, and if Sunak decides he wants to hold a GE then the byelection can be cancelled as per Manchester Gorton. But no more so than what happened at Berwick upon Tweed in 1973 and both Swindon and Newcastle under Lyme in 1969.
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carolus
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Post by carolus on Mar 25, 2024 11:04:21 GMT
I think it would be a pretty terrible democratic outcome to leave a constituency without representation for such weak reasons. Just hold the byelection, and if Sunak decides he wants to hold a GE then the byelection can be cancelled as per Manchester Gorton. But no more so than what happened at Berwick upon Tweed in 1973 and both Swindon and Newcastle under Lyme in 1969. I don't think as much precedent need be set by the minutiae of events half a century ago as you seem to believe. That said, while I'm not familiar with exactly why the byelections you mention were so delayed, it seems rather bad in those cases too.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Mar 25, 2024 11:12:35 GMT
And in none of those cases was a byelection actually requested by the seat's voters.
(plus who knows, the delay may have been a factor in the Liberals winning the later example)
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Post by finsobruce on Mar 25, 2024 11:22:59 GMT
But no more so than what happened at Berwick upon Tweed in 1973 and both Swindon and Newcastle under Lyme in 1969. I don't think as much precedent need be set by the minutiae of events half a century ago as you seem to believe. That said, while I'm not familiar with exactly why the byelections you mention were so delayed, it seems rather bad in those cases too. Well in Berwick it was to hope that voters would have forgotten about Lord Lambton's sex scandal, and in Swindon it was to hope that they'd forgotten that Philip Francis Noel Baker was spending so much time on his estate in Greece from whence he backed the coup. In both cases it probably made things worse..
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Mar 25, 2024 11:31:46 GMT
I don't think as much precedent need be set by the minutiae of events half a century ago as you seem to believe. That said, while I'm not familiar with exactly why the byelections you mention were so delayed, it seems rather bad in those cases too. Well in Berwick it was to hope that voters would have forgotten about Lord Lambton's sex scandal, and in Swindon that Philip Noel Baker was spending so much time on his estate in Greece from whence he backed the coup. In both cases it probably made things worse.. Francis
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Post by finsobruce on Mar 25, 2024 11:37:23 GMT
Well in Berwick it was to hope that voters would have forgotten about Lord Lambton's sex scandal, and in Swindon that Philip Noel Baker was spending so much time on his estate in Greece from whence he backed the coup. In both cases it probably made things worse.. Francis True it is. too many Noel-Bakers too little time.
Francis joined the SDP on its formation and eventually the Conservative party.
His grandfather and Philip's father Allen Baker was also an MP, the Liberal representative for East Finsbury 1910-18 (he died in the the H of C).
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Post by johnloony on Mar 25, 2024 11:39:37 GMT
I don’t know why people keep going on about examples of by-elections decades age when seats were left vacant for several months. The whole point is that we have abandoned that system, and adopted a system whereby by-elections are usually held reasonably promptly.
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Post by finsobruce on Mar 25, 2024 11:43:11 GMT
I don’t know why people keep going on about examples of by-elections decades age when seats were left vacant for several months. The whole point is that we have abandoned that system, and adopted a system whereby by-elections are usually held reasonably promptly. Blame graham . He's a booliak.
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graham
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Post by graham on Mar 25, 2024 13:12:15 GMT
I don’t know why people keep going on about examples of by-elections decades age when seats were left vacant for several months. The whole point is that we have abandoned that system, and adopted a system whereby by-elections are usually held reasonably promptly. There is a 'convention' that writs are now 'normally' moved within three months of seats becoming vacant. No statutory requirement exists and 'normal' provides some elasticity re- adhering to the convention.
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Post by stb12 on Mar 25, 2024 13:38:10 GMT
Personally i’d like to hear about the 19th century precedent before deciding my opinion on this
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graham
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Post by graham on Mar 25, 2024 13:45:36 GMT
Personally i’d like to hear about the 19th century precedent before deciding my opinion on this The closing months of the Heath government is hardly ancient history. I still think of Heath - and Wilson - as a recent PM.
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European Lefty
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Post by European Lefty on Mar 25, 2024 13:50:42 GMT
Personally i’d like to hear about the 19th century precedent before deciding my opinion on this The closing months of the Heath government is hardly ancient history. I still think of Heath - and Wilson - as a recent PM. That possibly says more about you than about the rights and wrongs of by-election timetables. My mother was 13 months old when Heath left office (she's 51 this year)
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Mar 25, 2024 13:53:02 GMT
Definitely not ancient history but given Wilson left office almost half a century ago I’m not sure comparisons from the mid 1970s are really relevant to the mid 2020s.
But this is getting tiresome and repetitive now. Can we go back to reporting every time an MP gets a parking ticket and someone suggesting they should resign? (joke)
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graham
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Post by graham on Mar 25, 2024 14:00:59 GMT
The closing months of the Heath government is hardly ancient history. I still think of Heath - and Wilson - as a recent PM. That possibly says more about you than about the rights and wrongs of by-election timetables. My mother was 13 months old when Heath left office (she's 51 this year) Well I will be 70 this summer and still view the 1970s as being just 'a few years ago.' The Berwick upon Tweed by election held in November 1973 was barely 15 months before Thatcher became Tory leader! I have always been blessed with a very good memory but at times it can feel like a curse!
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Mar 25, 2024 14:29:23 GMT
Graham is obviously wrong about these events being recent, but more pertinently he has suggested that the government might decline to move the writ for just about every previous government-held by-election going back to Mid Bedfordshire, and in none of those cases has he been correct.
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graham
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Post by graham on Mar 25, 2024 14:37:34 GMT
Graham is obviously wrong about these events being recent, but more pertinently he has suggested that the government might decline to move the writ for just about every previous government-held by-election going back to Mid Bedfordshire, and in none of those cases has he been correct. With respect what you say is not true. I have never predicted what you have implied at any stage. I have simply pointed out that precedents exist were the Government inclined to rely on them! To date, they have not done so. We wait to see whether that continues to be the case. Ergo I am not predicting that the writ for Blackpool South will not be moved, but pointing out that political calculation may lead the Government to decide not to do so. In the event of the latter, the precedents exist to justify such a decision.
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Post by johnloony on Mar 25, 2024 16:08:11 GMT
That possibly says more about you than about the rights and wrongs of by-election timetables. My mother was 13 months old when Heath left office (she's 51 this year) Well I will be 70 this summer and still view the 1970s as being just 'a few years ago.' The Berwick upon Tweed by election held in November 1973 was barely 15 months before Thatcher became Tory leader! I have always been blessed with a very good memory but at times it can feel like a curse! The occupational hazard with this sort of thing is that, even though history proceeds at a steady speed, there is - for each individual - a relatively sharp and brief dividing line between the things which we can remember and those we can’t. For me, I started being aware of events in the outside world in about 1974, I started being aware of political events in about 1977, and properly aware of parliamentary by-elections in 1983. Thus anything since 1984 is “recent” and anything before 1974 is “ancient history”. I sometimes have to stop to remind myself that not everybody on this forum will remember the excitement of Bermondsey 1983, or the miners’ strike, or the collapse of communism in 1989-91. Reading or hearing about such events afterwards, no matter how well educated or well-read someone is, is a poor substitute for actually living through the events in real life.
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