Parliamentary By-Elections - Rumoured and Ramped

[East Anglian Lefty]

Mar 15, 2013 12:38:57 GMT Tony Otim said:

Falkirk must be the SNP's best (maybe only) hope of a gain from Labour in 2015. Do the local party really want to be holding a full scale civil war in the press?

Ochil and South Perthshire is never exactly going to be safe.

On the other hand, Falkirk is one of the few seats in Scotland which could elect a new Labour MP in 2015, so there's something worth squabbling over at stake.

[Tony Otim]

Mar 15, 2013 13:22:02 GMT East Anglian Lefty said:

Mar 15, 2013 12:38:57 GMT Tony Otim said:

Falkirk must be the SNP's best (maybe only) hope of a gain from Labour in 2015. Do the local party really want to be holding a full scale civil war in the press?

Ochil and South Perthshire is never exactly going to be safe.

On the other hand, Falkirk is one of the few seats in Scotland which could elect a new Labour MP in 2015, so there's something worth squabbling over at stake.

But surely squabbling behind closed doors, under the circumstances

[Deleted]

Eric Joyce has been barred from buying or consuming alcohol from Parliamentary bars.

[gwynthegriff]

Mar 15, 2013 14:52:57 GMT doktorb🏳️‍🌈🏳️‍⚧️ said:

Eric Joyce has been barred from buying or consuming alcohol from Parliamentary bars.

Stables. Bolts. Doors.

[Deleted]

He has been charged with Actual Bodily Harm, and bailed.

[paulypaul]

It's very sad. I hope he gets help with his drink problem.

[East Anglian Lefty]

Mar 15, 2013 13:26:18 GMT Tony Otim said:

Mar 15, 2013 13:22:02 GMT East Anglian Lefty said:

Ochil and South Perthshire is never exactly going to be safe.

On the other hand, Falkirk is one of the few seats in Scotland which could elect a new Labour MP in 2015, so there's something worth squabbling over at stake.

But surely squabbling behind closed doors, under the circumstances

The question does arise, though, of whether squabbling in the open is a more effective method of getting your complaint out to the selectorate than doing it behind closed doors. Let's recall how few of the people who'll vote in a selection contest regularly turn up to General Committee meetings.

Particularly since the evidence that the electorate gives a damn about the internecine pissing contests of political parties is mixed, to say the least.

[Deleted]

Mar 15, 2013 18:59:11 GMT gwynthegriff said:

Mar 15, 2013 14:52:57 GMT doktorb🏳️‍🌈🏳️‍⚧️ said:

Eric Joyce has been barred from buying or consuming alcohol from Parliamentary bars.

Stables. Bolts. Doors.

I think this horse could well bolt again. I wouldn't be surprised if this isn't the last we hear of Mr Joyce this parliament.

[Deleted]

Predecessor Dennis Canavan, today said Mr Joyce he should to 'do the decent thing' and resign his seat immediately.
Mr Canavan, 70, speaking at his home near Stirling, said: 'It's a sad situation. It's sad for Eric Joyce but it's even sadder for the people of Falkirk.
'For over a year now they have had no effective representation in Parliament and they don't deserve this.
'I said last year it was time to go for the sake of his constituents and for his own sake, because obviously he has a serious problem and he needs help, and he needs to seek help.
'Being a member of parliament can be very stressful at times, and it requires someone who is fit for the job.
'His serial misconduct shows that he is not fit for the job.
'He has brought himself into disrepute, he has brought Parliament into disrepute, and he has brought Falkirk into disrepute.
'He should do the decent thing and go now.
'He is just a huge embarrassment, and is incapable of doing his job. I am sure the majority of people in Falkirk and in Scotland would agree with me.'

Source: Daily Mail

[peterl]

Depends which of three sentencing bands the facts of the crime fall into.

Category 1: Greater harm (serious injury must normally be present) and higher culpability
Category 2: Greater harm (serious injury must normally be present) and lower culpability;
or lesser harm and higher culpability
Category 3: Lesser harm and lower culpability

Drunkenness is considered to increase culpability, so probably looking at category 2. That's a starting point of 6 months, with a higher end of 1 year.

[Pimpernal]

Not one of the more exciting byelection prospects from a UKIP perspective I suspect...

[Deleted]

Isn't this a category 3, the person involved didn't have to go to hospital, so injury clearly wasn't serious.

[Deleted]

yep but coming after the first offence then you wonder if the wrong magistrate may look badly on it rather than look at the obvious problems Joyce has.

Not surprising he is ex forces though after the report showing that ex forces people have higher rates of crime, it is something we have to address when they come out and try and adjust.

[piperdave]

Mar 16, 2013 9:16:54 GMT Pimpernal said:

Not one of the more exciting byelection prospects from a UKIP perspective I suspect...

Indeed, a good result for UKIP might be breaking 1%! Any ideas who would be in the running to be the candidate?

[Deleted]

well Eric Joyce has come in fighting in his reponse to the latest incident

ericjoyce.co.uk/2013/03/a-few-thoughts-re-events/

he may be restricted by what he can say but he has said a lot here

[Richard Allen]

Mar 16, 2013 17:44:30 GMT piperdave said:

Mar 16, 2013 9:16:54 GMT Pimpernal said:

Not one of the more exciting byelection prospects from a UKIP perspective I suspect...

Indeed, a good result for UKIP might be breaking 1%! Any ideas who would be in the running to be the candidate?

No idea really but Paul Henke who stood in Stirling in 2010 is on the approved candidate list and would probably be a safe pair of hands.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Mar 15, 2013 19:25:01 GMT doktorb🏳️‍🌈🏳️‍⚧️ said:

He has been charged with Actual Bodily Harm, and bailed.

According to his statement, and to all the press reports, he has not been charged.

[Deleted]

correct just arrested on suspicion

[thirdchill]

UKIP have no chance in Falkirk. It should be a labour hold if there were a by-election but with the SNP as the main contenders. There are no guarantees however. Labour held onto John Smith's seat after he died by a narrow margin and this is when they were riding very high in the polls.

[The Bishop]

Mar 16, 2013 18:48:30 GMT thirdchill said:

UKIP have no chance in Falkirk

Anything else, Captain Obvious??

Re your other comments, the SNP would surely be favourites if there was any by-election here (not least to the circumstances in which any vacancy would have come about) And if they only just lost pretty much the same seat back in 2000, we can draw our own conclusions from that too.....