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Post by Merseymike on May 9, 2021 17:16:10 GMT
Note also that there are 6 councillors in Batley. 5 are Asian - including two in white wirking-class Batley West.
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Post by andrew111 on May 9, 2021 17:36:07 GMT
Batley and Spen is only about 10% Asian and most of the voters are White working class/suburban. The Asian vote is also split between Pakistani and Indian, which can make it hard to unite behind a candidate of either heritage. Nationalists and right wing Parties have often done well here. If Labour can find another Jo Cox (White and local) that will be their best chance. 20% at the last census, guaranteed to have increased. Locally that split has not been apparent in voting preferences and they are all Muslim. The Labour councillors in Heckmondwike including the former leader have always been left wing. Mike Wood, the former MP lived in the Spen Valley and represented a Spen ward when a councillor. The Labour vote is quite resilient. At a by election where the parties start at 50-50 it really will be about motivating your core to get out and vote. Well, what Labour need is for the 2019 BXP and Heavy Woollen voters to stay home. The councillors should be able to motivate the Asian vote, but having a Muslim candidate risks motivating the opposition.
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Post by andrew111 on May 9, 2021 17:42:20 GMT
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Post by Merseymike on May 9, 2021 21:29:18 GMT
Only the Tories couldn't advocate that view, and if the HWD fash stand, they will undoubtedly harm the Tories more in this seat.
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Post by andrew111 on May 9, 2021 21:43:54 GMT
Only the Tories couldn't advocate that view, and if the HWD fash stand, they will undoubtedly harm the Tories more in this seat. They will be squeezed down to nothing in a by-election, especially if Labour pick Muslim candidate. That is what I am saying.
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Post by Merseymike on May 9, 2021 21:50:48 GMT
I don't agree. The Tories or Labour will not touch the issue of either halal or kosher meat with a bargepole and if the HWD stood mounting that sort of campaign it would be much more difficult for the Tories to soak up the anti- Muslim vote. To give them some credit they have not attempted to do so.
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Post by andrew111 on May 10, 2021 19:08:38 GMT
I don't agree. The Tories or Labour will not touch the issue of either halal or kosher meat with a bargepole and if the HWD stood mounting that sort of campaign it would be much more difficult for the Tories to soak up the anti- Muslim vote. To give them some credit they have not attempted to do so. Of course they won't. But I was at the count in 2019 and when Lukic was elected the Tories all cheered. Lib dems did not. Lukic and Halloran got 42 and 36% respectively in 2019 in Dewsbury E and Batley W. Chances are they will not stand and will quietly endorse the Tory.
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neilm
Non-Aligned
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Post by neilm on May 10, 2021 23:30:03 GMT
It would be relatively easy for a Conservative candidate to emphasise the government's environmental track record and just happen to mention the position on non-stunned meat as part of that. And lots of talk about personal choice etc.
I won't buy anything from Subway here in Manchester because the ham, pepperoni etc isn't the real deal. This isn't an election issue but it annoys me no end especially as loads of pizza places flog ham etc that is clearly 'turkey ham' and get away with mislabelling it.
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Post by samdwebber on May 15, 2021 22:48:45 GMT
Update here on Delyn & Rob Roberts MP:
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Post by LDCaerdydd on May 17, 2021 18:35:51 GMT
This would be the defence and circumstances the Conservatives would most fear, especially if as it looks it goes to a recall petition
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Post by stb12 on May 17, 2021 18:59:44 GMT
Update here on Delyn & Rob Roberts MP: Bad vetting for a marginal seat?
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on May 17, 2021 19:02:10 GMT
Update here on Delyn & Rob Roberts MP: Bad vetting for a marginal seat? Presumably if he'd had a good vet, he wouldn't be in this trouble
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Post by gibbon on May 21, 2021 11:10:34 GMT
How will Conservative Whips view the prospect of a by-election in a seat won in 2019 when the same seat was held by Labour this May? If there is a recommendation that he be suspended for 10 days and face a recall what are the chances that a 'kindly' Conservative MP moves an amendment to reduce the length of the suspension so that not recall can be faced? Do we know how ling the investigation will last in respect of the 5 Conservative MPs who wrote to the Judges in respect of the Elphike case? If breaches are found and awkward recommendations are made will there be a push to avoid the recall procedure? What is happening in Rutherglen. It seems to have gone quiet. Are we w waiting for the police or another inquiry to report.
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European Lefty
Labour
Can be bribed with salted liquorice
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Post by European Lefty on May 21, 2021 14:15:35 GMT
How will Conservative Whips view the prospect of a by-election in a seat won in 2019 when the same seat was held by Labour this May? If there is a recommendation that he be suspended for 10 days and face a recall what are the chances that a 'kindly' Conservative MP moves an amendment to reduce the length of the suspension so that not recall can be faced? Do we know how ling the investigation will last in respect of the 5 Conservative MPs who wrote to the Judges in respect of the Elphike case? If breaches are found and awkward recommendations are made will there be a push to avoid the recall procedure? What is happening in Rutherglen. It seems to have gone quiet. Are we w waiting for the police or another inquiry to report. I rather assume that Tory strategists have factored in the likelihood that at least a couple of the "safe" Labour seats they won would have by-elections in this parliament
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Post by greenhert on May 21, 2021 14:46:10 GMT
How will Conservative Whips view the prospect of a by-election in a seat won in 2019 when the same seat was held by Labour this May? If there is a recommendation that he be suspended for 10 days and face a recall what are the chances that a 'kindly' Conservative MP moves an amendment to reduce the length of the suspension so that not recall can be faced? Do we know how ling the investigation will last in respect of the 5 Conservative MPs who wrote to the Judges in respect of the Elphike case? If breaches are found and awkward recommendations are made will there be a push to avoid the recall procedure? What is happening in Rutherglen. It seems to have gone quiet. Are we w waiting for the police or another inquiry to report. Keep in mind how much lower turnout is at Senedd elections. Turnout in Delyn was 47% in the 2021 Senedd election and 70.3% at the 2019 general election.
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pl
Non-Aligned
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Post by pl on May 21, 2021 14:56:34 GMT
How will Conservative Whips view the prospect of a by-election in a seat won in 2019 when the same seat was held by Labour this May? If there is a recommendation that he be suspended for 10 days and face a recall what are the chances that a 'kindly' Conservative MP moves an amendment to reduce the length of the suspension so that not recall can be faced? Do we know how ling the investigation will last in respect of the 5 Conservative MPs who wrote to the Judges in respect of the Elphike case? If breaches are found and awkward recommendations are made will there be a push to avoid the recall procedure? What is happening in Rutherglen. It seems to have gone quiet. Are we w waiting for the police or another inquiry to report. Keep in mind how much lower turnout is at Senedd elections. Turnout in Delyn was 47% in the 2021 Senedd election and 70.3% at the 2019 general election. And non-Conservative voters are more likely to vote in Assembly elections.
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on May 21, 2021 15:16:26 GMT
This would be the defence and circumstances the Conservatives would most fear, especially if as it looks it goes to a recall petition I know for a fact that I speak for a lot of, especially young, Conservatives when I say that I'd be willing to risk losing Delyn to get rid of Roberts. He is an utter disgrace.
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Post by Ron Swanson on May 21, 2021 15:26:26 GMT
This would be the defence and circumstances the Conservatives would most fear, especially if as it looks it goes to a recall petition I know for a fact that I speak for a lot of, especially young, Conservatives when I say that I'd be willing to risk losing Delyn to get rid of Roberts. He is an utter disgrace. Yep, get him slung out.
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Post by stb12 on May 22, 2021 9:15:40 GMT
With the size of the Conservatives’ majority and having gained Hartlepool it hardly seems like a situation where they need to really fear potentially losing one seat so I’d be surprised if they supported him right to the end if this doesn’t go away.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on May 22, 2021 10:18:41 GMT
I wouldn't be so blase about a possible byelection loss tbh. A great deal of modern day politics is about narrative.
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