North Shropshire

[grahammurray]

Jan 6, 2022 12:43:20 GMT elinorhelyn said:

Massive difference in turnout between NS and OB&S. Can someone opine why?

Could it be simply an issue of perception?  Rightly or wongly NS was seen by the electorate and the parties as being competitive while OBS was not.  This meant a huge amount more campaigning in the former and a feeling by the voters that their decision might matter.

Maybe it was also down to the voters in NS thinking in the cirumstances of the vacancy that a message needed to be sent.  This was far from the case in OBS.

[batman]

Also the weather was very cold on the day of the Old Bexley & Sidcup election - I know, I was out knocking up in that very close council by-election not so far away in Balham, and it was bloody perishing. We couldn't get a lot of our vote out there either.

[jakegb]

The circumstances of the previous MPs were hugely influential in my view.
Old Bexley + Sidcup - held due to the sad passing of James Brokenshire (who by all accounts was thought of highly by many of his constituents). 
North Shropshire - sleaze. Former MP had to resign in disgrace. 

I think the latter motivated people to 'turn out' and register their dissatisfaction with sleaze very close to home in their 'patch' (with the Lib Dems benefitting).
Yes - there was anger about sleaze in the lead up to Old Bexley + Sidcup, but it was out of their 'patch', and so the Tories were able to escape relatively unscathed and indeed hold the seat. 

[neilm]

Jan 6, 2022 19:34:39 GMT jakegb said:

The circumstances of the previous MPs were hugely influential in my view.
Old Bexley + Sidcup - held due to the sad passing of James Brokenshire (who by all accounts was thought of highly by many of his constituents). 
North Shropshire - sleaze. Former MP had to resign in disgrace. 

I think the latter motivated people to 'turn out' and register their dissatisfaction with sleaze very close to home in their 'patch' (with the Lib Dems benefitting).
Yes - there was anger about sleaze in the lead up to Old Bexley + Sidcup, but it was out of their 'patch', and so the Tories were able to escape relatively unscathed and indeed hold the seat. 

There's also the issue of a local issue. In Chesham, the MP died from cancer but there was an obvious factor for any challenger to jump on. That wasn't the case in OB&S, but I've no doubt that if there had been an enthusiastic campaign by Labour might have swung it.

[jakegb]

Jan 6, 2022 19:56:49 GMT neilm said:

Jan 6, 2022 19:34:39 GMT jakegb said:

The circumstances of the previous MPs were hugely influential in my view.
Old Bexley + Sidcup - held due to the sad passing of James Brokenshire (who by all accounts was thought of highly by many of his constituents). 
North Shropshire - sleaze. Former MP had to resign in disgrace. 

I think the latter motivated people to 'turn out' and register their dissatisfaction with sleaze very close to home in their 'patch' (with the Lib Dems benefitting).
Yes - there was anger about sleaze in the lead up to Old Bexley + Sidcup, but it was out of their 'patch', and so the Tories were able to escape relatively unscathed and indeed hold the seat. 

There's also the issue of a local issue. In Chesham, the MP died from cancer but there was an obvious factor for any challenger to jump on. That wasn't the case in OB&S, but I've no doubt that if there had been an enthusiastic campaign by Labour might have swung it.

Very fair point re. the circumstances of Chesham and Amersham.
And Labour's poor performance in that and North Shropshire, as well as lacklustre performances in Old Bexley + Sidcup and Batley + Spen, will cast doubt in a lot of people mind's (pollsters, party members, even their own MPs) over whether they are anywhere near power in 2023/24. 
And in the mean time, this affords the Tories a little more breathing space, even after a terrible few months. 

[andrew111]

Jan 6, 2022 20:23:02 GMT jakegb said:

Jan 6, 2022 19:56:49 GMT neilm said:

There's also the issue of a local issue. In Chesham, the MP died from cancer but there was an obvious factor for any challenger to jump on. That wasn't the case in OB&S, but I've no doubt that if there had been an enthusiastic campaign by Labour might have swung it.

Very fair point re. the circumstances of Chesham and Amersham.
And Labour's poor performance in that and North Shropshire, as well as lacklustre performances in Old Bexley + Sidcup and Batley + Spen, will cast doubt in a lot of people mind's (pollsters, party members, even their own MPs) over whether they are anywhere near power in 2023/24. 
And in the mean time, this affords the Tories a little more breathing space, even after a terrible few months. 

The result in OBS was quite in line with national polls, 10% swing to Labour. This is typical of Lab-Con by elections and bigger swings to Labour are usually only seen when the by-election is seen as a confirmation of an upcoming change in govt, as in the run up to 1997. Tory voters do not switch to Labour if they would still vote Tory in a GE and the extra swing in OBS was mostly switching to Reform.

In contrast the Lib Dems can get big by-election swings from the governing party regardless of the polls, and this has been seen time and again. Labour were never going to win any of the Tory held seats in the 2021 set of by-elections.

[The Bishop]

Jan 6, 2022 20:23:02 GMT jakegb said:

Jan 6, 2022 19:56:49 GMT neilm said:

There's also the issue of a local issue. In Chesham, the MP died from cancer but there was an obvious factor for any challenger to jump on. That wasn't the case in OB&S, but I've no doubt that if there had been an enthusiastic campaign by Labour might have swung it.

Very fair point re. the circumstances of Chesham and Amersham.
And Labour's poor performance in that and North Shropshire, as well as lacklustre performances in Old Bexley + Sidcup and Batley + Spen, will cast doubt in a lot of people mind's (pollsters, party members, even their own MPs) over whether they are anywhere near power in 2023/24. 
And in the mean time, this affords the Tories a little more breathing space, even after a terrible few months. 

Those two results at least do not tell us anything at all about Labour's prospects at the next GE.

[Pete Whitehead]

Jan 7, 2022 10:31:04 GMT andrew111 said:

Jan 6, 2022 20:23:02 GMT jakegb said:

Very fair point re. the circumstances of Chesham and Amersham.
And Labour's poor performance in that and North Shropshire, as well as lacklustre performances in Old Bexley + Sidcup and Batley + Spen, will cast doubt in a lot of people mind's (pollsters, party members, even their own MPs) over whether they are anywhere near power in 2023/24. 
And in the mean time, this affords the Tories a little more breathing space, even after a terrible few months. 

The result in OBS was quite in line with national polls, 10% swing to Labour. This is typical of Lab-Con by elections and bigger swings to Labour are usually only seen when the by-election is seen as a confirmation of an upcoming change in govt, as in the run up to 1997. Tory voters do not switch to Labour if they would still vote Tory in a GE and the extra swing in OBS was mostly switching to Reform.

In contrast the Lib Dems can get big by-election swings from the governing party regardless of the polls, and this has been seen time and again. Labour were never going to win any of the Tory held seats in the 2021 set of by-elections.

Yes - Labour were never going to win Old Bexley & Sidcup outside the kind of conditions we saw in the mid 90s which clearly do not apply now (and even if the current government plums the depths of unpopularity that John Major's government did, we would still lack the extra ingredient which was the positive support for Blair's Labour party which Starmer shows no signs of being able to replicate)

[The Bishop]

Though, again, that byelection held with N Shropshire just two weeks later would have seen a bigger pro-Labour swing (even if not enough to win the seat)

[andrew111]

Jan 7, 2022 11:11:57 GMT The Bishop said:

Though, again, that byelection held with N Shropshire just two weeks later would have seen a bigger pro-Labour swing (even if not enough to win the seat)

The polls were a bit better and there was a bigger element of general disgust which might have gone to Reform and "sit on hands" so yes, but probably not more than 15% swing.

The fact that the Tories had a reasonable local candidate in Bexley and a parachuted guy from Birmingham in Shropshire should also not be underestimated in by elections. It was the good local candidate who enabled Labour to hang on in Batley and Spen

[andrewp]

Jan 7, 2022 11:19:39 GMT andrew111 said:

Jan 7, 2022 11:11:57 GMT The Bishop said:

Though, again, that byelection held with N Shropshire just two weeks later would have seen a bigger pro-Labour swing (even if not enough to win the seat)

The polls were a bit better and there was a bigger element of general disgust which might have gone to Reform and "sit on hands" so yes, but probably not more than 15% swing.

The fact that the Tories had a reasonable local candidate in Bexley and a parachuted guy from Birmingham in Shropshire should also not be underestimated in by elections. It was the good local candidate who enabled Labour to hang on in Batley and Spen

In a by election I think local trumps good in the desirable list of attributes for a candidate. Its not unreasonable to think that if he gets to parliament, Neil Shastri Hurst might well prove to be a better MP than Louis French.

[Pete Whitehead]

Jan 7, 2022 11:42:22 GMT andrewp said:

Jan 7, 2022 11:19:39 GMT andrew111 said:

The polls were a bit better and there was a bigger element of general disgust which might have gone to Reform and "sit on hands" so yes, but probably not more than 15% swing.

The fact that the Tories had a reasonable local candidate in Bexley and a parachuted guy from Birmingham in Shropshire should also not be underestimated in by elections. It was the good local candidate who enabled Labour to hang on in Batley and Spen

In a by election I think local trumps good in the desirable list of attributes for a candidate. Its not unreasonable to think that if he gets to parliament, Neil Shastri Hurst might well prove to be a better MP than Louis French.

Or for that matter some anonymous housewife from Wem (whose name I forget and can'r be arse to look up, but who has all the hallmarks of a Diana Maddock or Sandra Gidley)

[The Bishop]

Though of course Gidley held her seat for two more elections.....

[yellowperil]

Jan 7, 2022 11:59:22 GMT The Bishop said:

Though of course Gidley held her seat for two more elections.....

and Maddock had a distinguished parliamentary career in the Other Place.

[yellowperil]

Jan 7, 2022 11:42:22 GMT andrewp said:

Jan 7, 2022 11:19:39 GMT andrew111 said:

The polls were a bit better and there was a bigger element of general disgust which might have gone to Reform and "sit on hands" so yes, but probably not more than 15% swing.

The fact that the Tories had a reasonable local candidate in Bexley and a parachuted guy from Birmingham in Shropshire should also not be underestimated in by elections. It was the good local candidate who enabled Labour to hang on in Batley and Spen

In a by election I think local trumps good in the desirable list of attributes for a candidate. Its not unreasonable to think that if he gets to parliament, Neil Shastri Hurst might well prove to be a better MP than Louis French.

I am far from convinced by this, even though that's a pretty low bar. There is a much repeated claim that if NSH finally finds his way into parliament he will excell and that he's obvious top ministerial material just waiting to get there. I don't think I buy any of that. It seems to be based on a rapid rise in three previous careers- military, medical, legal, so the next one, political, is somehow inevitable. For a start I'm suspicious of that flitting from one high powered career to another- sounds awfully like moving on to something else just before being found out.  I really find the" he was a crap candidate but he will be a wonderful MP" argument difficult to sustain-the requirements of a good parliamentary candidate and those of a good MP are not that different. And make no mistake, he really was a crap candidate. His problems were not really about the fact that he was bad fit for the sort of constituency North Shropshire was- a good candidate would soon have made the man from Birmingham tag irrelevant. The real problems were that he didn't seem to care enough to get it right- the mistake of thinking he was in Oswestry when he was actually in Wem was not that he was an outsider, it was that he just wasn't competent- and his carers didn't dare let him out on his own or speak for himself. They knew.  I dare to suggest he made the hapless Tory candidate in C&A seem quite good. 

[jamesdoyle]

Jan 7, 2022 14:00:17 GMT yellowperil said:

Jan 7, 2022 11:42:22 GMT andrewp said:

In a by election I think local trumps good in the desirable list of attributes for a candidate. Its not unreasonable to think that if he gets to parliament, Neil Shastri Hurst might well prove to be a better MP than Louis French.

I am far from convinced by this, even though that's a pretty low bar. There is a much repeated claim that if NSH finally finds his way into parliament he will excell and that he's obvious top ministerial material just waiting to get there. I don't think I buy any of that. It seems to be based on a rapid rise in three previous careers- military, medical, legal, so the next one, political, is somehow inevitable. For a start I'm suspicious of that flitting from one high powered career to another- sounds awfully like moving on to something else just before being found out.  I really find the" he was a crap candidate but he will be a wonderful MP" argument difficult to sustain-the requirements of a good parliamentary candidate and those of a good MP are not that different. And make no mistake, he really was a crap candidate. His problems were not really about the fact that he was bad fit for the sort of constituency North Shropshire was- a good candidate would soon have made the man from Birmingham tag irrelevant. The real problems were that he didn't seem to care enough to get it right- the mistake of thinking he was in Oswestry when he was actually in Wem was not that he was an outsider, it was that he just wasn't competent- and his carers didn't dare let him out on his own or speak for himself. They knew.  I dare to suggest he made the hapless Tory candidate in C&A seem quite good.

NSH came up when I was speaking to a friend the other day, who used to be a military doctor (but he was RN, so he might be slightly biased against the RAMC of course! And might be a bit out of date, he's been retired a while...)

His points:
1. Joining the RAMC is often a route taken by those who want to become a surgeon but can't get in on the hospital pathway - the RAMC standards are a bit more 'flexible'
2. The fact he left the army so quickly to go into hospital surgery reinforced the above view - once he had a couple of years under his belt, that would help to convince a hospital to take him on.
3. NSH left surgery to become a barrister because of peripheral neuropathy: my friend's words were, "Surgeons are arrogant. They have to be. They can never admit they might not be up to the job. And other surgeons help reinforce that by protecting them with euphemistic ways of leaving. Lots of surgeons retire with peripheral neuropathy: it means shaky hands."

[gwynthegriff]

Jan 7, 2022 14:00:17 GMT yellowperil said:

Jan 7, 2022 11:42:22 GMT andrewp said:

In a by election I think local trumps good in the desirable list of attributes for a candidate. Its not unreasonable to think that if he gets to parliament, Neil Shastri Hurst might well prove to be a better MP than Louis French.

I am far from convinced by this, even though that's a pretty low bar. There is a much repeated claim that if NSH finally finds his way into parliament he will excell and that he's obvious top ministerial material just waiting to get there. I don't think I buy any of that. It seems to be based on a rapid rise in three previous careers- military, medical, legal, so the next one, political, is somehow inevitable. For a start I'm suspicious of that flitting from one high powered career to another- sounds awfully like moving on to something else just before being found out.  I really find the" he was a crap candidate but he will be a wonderful MP" argument difficult to sustain-the requirements of a good parliamentary candidate and those of a good MP are not that different. And make no mistake, he really was a crap candidate. His problems were not really about the fact that he was bad fit for the sort of constituency North Shropshire was- a good candidate would soon have made the man from Birmingham tag irrelevant. The real problems were that he didn't seem to care enough to get it right- the mistake of thinking he was in Oswestry when he was actually in Wem was not that he was an outsider, it was that he just wasn't competent- and his carers didn't dare let him out on his own or speak for himself. They knew.  I dare to suggest he made the hapless Tory candidate in C&A seem quite good. 

Just a reminder that NSH (as we now seem to have termed him) didn't really engage in "flitting".

His aim was to be a surgeon - the military route appears to have been to facilitate that.

He then developed a medical condition which meant he couldn't continue as a surgeon, so he switched to law.

I'm not in a position to assess whether he was good, bad, indifferent or excellent in any of those roles.

But as a parliamentary candidate in a high-profile by-election he does seem to have been a little naive.

[andrew111]

Jan 7, 2022 11:42:22 GMT andrewp said:

Jan 7, 2022 11:19:39 GMT andrew111 said:

The polls were a bit better and there was a bigger element of general disgust which might have gone to Reform and "sit on hands" so yes, but probably not more than 15% swing.

The fact that the Tories had a reasonable local candidate in Bexley and a parachuted guy from Birmingham in Shropshire should also not be underestimated in by elections. It was the good local candidate who enabled Labour to hang on in Batley and Spen

In a by election I think local trumps good in the desirable list of attributes for a candidate. Its not unreasonable to think that if he gets to parliament, Neil Shastri Hurst might well prove to be a better MP than Louis French.

He might. I did hear from a consultant surgeon while delivering leaflets near Market Drayton that his medical experience is somewhat over egged (into the "wouldn't vote for him" range, although as we know that is often people who would never vote for his Party)

[batman]

Jan 7, 2022 11:52:02 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Jan 7, 2022 11:42:22 GMT andrewp said:

In a by election I think local trumps good in the desirable list of attributes for a candidate. Its not unreasonable to think that if he gets to parliament, Neil Shastri Hurst might well prove to be a better MP than Louis French.

Or for that matter some anonymous housewife from Wem (whose name I forget and can'r be arse to look up, but who has all the hallmarks of a Diana Maddock or Sandra Gidley)

the name is easy enough since there was a woman awarded & who then resigned from the Miss World title with the same name

[andrew111]

Jan 7, 2022 14:23:14 GMT jamesdoyle said:

Jan 7, 2022 14:00:17 GMT yellowperil said:

I am far from convinced by this, even though that's a pretty low bar. There is a much repeated claim that if NSH finally finds his way into parliament he will excell and that he's obvious top ministerial material just waiting to get there. I don't think I buy any of that. It seems to be based on a rapid rise in three previous careers- military, medical, legal, so the next one, political, is somehow inevitable. For a start I'm suspicious of that flitting from one high powered career to another- sounds awfully like moving on to something else just before being found out.  I really find the" he was a crap candidate but he will be a wonderful MP" argument difficult to sustain-the requirements of a good parliamentary candidate and those of a good MP are not that different. And make no mistake, he really was a crap candidate. His problems were not really about the fact that he was bad fit for the sort of constituency North Shropshire was- a good candidate would soon have made the man from Birmingham tag irrelevant. The real problems were that he didn't seem to care enough to get it right- the mistake of thinking he was in Oswestry when he was actually in Wem was not that he was an outsider, it was that he just wasn't competent- and his carers didn't dare let him out on his own or speak for himself. They knew.  I dare to suggest he made the hapless Tory candidate in C&A seem quite good.

NSH came up when I was speaking to a friend the other day, who used to be a military doctor (but he was RN, so he might be slightly biased against the RAMC of course! And might be a bit out of date, he's been retired a while...)

His points:
1. Joining the RAMC is often a route taken by those who want to become a surgeon but can't get in on the hospital pathway - the RAMC standards are a bit more 'flexible'
2. The fact he left the army so quickly to go into hospital surgery reinforced the above view - once he had a couple of years under his belt, that would help to convince a hospital to take him on.
3. NSH left surgery to become a barrister because of peripheral neuropathy: my friend's words were, "Surgeons are arrogant. They have to be. They can never admit they might not be up to the job. And other surgeons help reinforce that by protecting them with euphemistic ways of leaving. Lots of surgeons retire with peripheral neuropathy: it means shaky hands."

Well, yes, see my post..