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Post by Peter Wilkinson on Dec 22, 2021 11:02:25 GMT
Why did the LDs win in NS but Labour failed to win OB&S? Old Bexley and Sidcup though in Greater London, doesn’t really have the London demographics to make it competitive for Labour and if anything is more similar to areas just outside the boundary like Ewell or Chigwell (though both areas are probably more affluent than OBS bar the council estate wards) than South East London. And in that respect, OB&S seems to compare rather more closely with other parts of north Kent much as Hornchurch & Upminster and Romford compare more closely with other parts of south Essex. The same probably applies in effect to parts of several other outer London constituencies, but the Greater London boundary extends distinctly further out to the east than it does to the north or south.
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Post by where2travel on Dec 22, 2021 13:22:16 GMT
Old Bexley and Sidcup though in Greater London, doesn’t really have the London demographics to make it competitive for Labour and if anything is more similar to areas just outside the boundary like Ewell or Chigwell (though both areas are probably more affluent than OBS bar the council estate wards) than South East London. And in that respect, OB&S seems to compare rather more closely with other parts of north Kent much as Hornchurch & Upminster and Romford compare more closely with other parts of south Essex. The same probably applies in effect to parts of several other outer London constituencies, but the Greater London boundary extends distinctly further out to the east than it does to the north or south. And seats like OB&S and Orpington are far stronger for the Tories now than their former safest seats in south and south-east London - Beckenham, Bromley & Chislehurst and Croydon South. Even Bexleyheath & Crayford has a higher Tory vote share and majority than these three.
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Post by evergreenadam on Dec 22, 2021 13:56:54 GMT
And in that respect, OB&S seems to compare rather more closely with other parts of north Kent much as Hornchurch & Upminster and Romford compare more closely with other parts of south Essex. The same probably applies in effect to parts of several other outer London constituencies, but the Greater London boundary extends distinctly further out to the east than it does to the north or south. And seats like OB&S and Orpington are far stronger for the Tories now than their former safest seats in south and south-east London - Beckenham, Bromley & Chislehurst and Croydon South. Even Bexleyheath & Crayford has a higher Tory vote share and majority than these three. Demographic change in those three seats as the current inhabitants of the inner and middle rings around London who are more progressive in attitude move further out. I’m sure people move out to Bexleyheath, Sidcup and Orpington too, but these fringe areas that still think of themselves as being part of Kent are more stubbornly Conservative in current times and perhaps the people that move there reflect those values rather than challenge them.
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 8,076
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Post by cogload on Dec 22, 2021 19:50:10 GMT
With regard to Brexit It does not matter if you are right or wrong. Nobody even cares any more. What you need to take on board is this: we are never rejoining the EU and nobody who voted to leave actuallyregrets it
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 8,076
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Post by cogload on Dec 22, 2021 20:18:15 GMT
The other pearler on this thread is freedom of movement is a BAD thing because it enables Polish plumbers to undercut the natives thereby putting them out of work but free trade deals are a GOOD thing because the lack of trade barriers enables Australians to undercut UK farmers and that is capitalism good and proper and the consumer benefits. Protectionism is bad, unless of course it comes with Polish plumbers attached when it is a GOOD thing.
Heyho.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Dec 22, 2021 22:46:35 GMT
The other pearler on this thread is freedom of movement is a BAD thing because it enables Polish plumbers to undercut the natives thereby putting them out of work but free trade deals are a GOOD thing because the lack of trade barriers enables Australians to undercut UK farmers and that is capitalism good and proper and the consumer benefits. Protectionism is bad, unless of course it comes with Polish plumbers attached when it is a GOOD thing. Heyho. Polish plumbers is a fascinating phrase. There can't be many French political phrases that have spread this far outside the hexagon.
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Post by bjornhattan on Dec 22, 2021 23:21:17 GMT
The other pearler on this thread is freedom of movement is a BAD thing because it enables Polish plumbers to undercut the natives thereby putting them out of work but free trade deals are a GOOD thing because the lack of trade barriers enables Australians to undercut UK farmers and that is capitalism good and proper and the consumer benefits. Protectionism is bad, unless of course it comes with Polish plumbers attached when it is a GOOD thing. Heyho. Polish plumbers is a fascinating phrase. There can't be many French political phrases that have spread this far outside the hexagon.Left-wing (and right-wing) springs to mind.
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Dec 23, 2021 2:04:01 GMT
We are not going to rejoin the EU in your lifetime. But you might live to see it collapse I'm not young but I'm young enough that we might rejoin in my time. I'm not betting on it. EEA or similar, I think likely within 10 years. The EU ain't going to end this century. The UK, I'm less sure about, but will fight for.
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Post by mattbewilson on Dec 23, 2021 10:41:14 GMT
I can't see rejoin the EU or Scottish Independence any time soon tbh, both might poll well enough but as I'm often told; what polls well doesn't always make an appealing program for government in an election. In the next however many elections we'll have a Tory party accusing Labour of wanting to reverse the decision of the 'people' and in the pocket of the SNP. While Labour will try and dissipate such fears by saying that Labour won't re-negotiate the Brexit deal and no deal with the SNP or 2nd referendum. The only way EEA happens is if either party does it midterm and say it was unavoidable because of problems with trade, etc.
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johng
Labour
Posts: 4,493
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Post by johng on Dec 23, 2021 11:18:04 GMT
We are not going to rejoin the EU in your lifetime. But you might live to see it collapse The real questions is what you mean by 'we'. That union is much more likely to outlive our union no matter what certain fantasies some have. An independent Scotland or reunited Ireland are both very likely (basically certain for NI) to rejoin the EU. Reunification is a lot more certain, but is, at the same time, seemingly a lot more distant.
I can't see rejoin the EU or Scottish Independence any time soon tbh, both might poll well enough but as I'm often told; what polls well doesn't always make an appealing program for government in an election. In the next however many elections we'll have a Tory party accusing Labour of wanting to reverse the decision of the 'people' and in the pocket of the SNP. While Labour will try and dissipate such fears by saying that Labour won't re-negotiate the Brexit deal and no deal with the SNP or 2nd referendum. The only way EEA happens is if either party does it midterm and say it was unavoidable because of problems with trade, etc.
That's a certainty.
For the party that 'got Brexit done' and 'stopped independence' they certainly go on about both a hell of a lot. The next GE's slogans have already been written: 'Stability and strong Government with Boris Johnson (no laughing please), or chaos with Labour'. The real question is if the electorate still bite. We saw the Tories do pretty well in Scotland in 2021 despite their sole campaign point being running against independence for the umpteenth time. Though I suppose north of the border it suits both the SNP and Tories to have elections run along those lines which isn't the case south of it.
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Post by gwynthegriff on Dec 23, 2021 12:11:57 GMT
We are not going to rejoin the EU in your lifetime. But you might live to see it collapse Wasn't it supposed to collapse following the 2008 financial crisis? Triggered by Greece's departure?
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Dec 23, 2021 12:22:32 GMT
We are not going to rejoin the EU in your lifetime. But you might live to see it collapse Wasn't it supposed to collapse following the 2008 financial crisis? Triggered by Greece's departure? It was going to collapse in the 1990s because monetary union would be an economic disaster. Then it was going to collapse in the 2000s because of the recession. Then it was going to collapse in the 2010s because of the migrant crisis. Then it was going to collapse in the 2020s because of the UK leaving. Eppur si muove.
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ricmk
Lib Dem
Posts: 2,286
Member is Online
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Post by ricmk on Dec 23, 2021 12:52:26 GMT
I'm increasingly of the view that if the EU holds together we will be back. It will of course need all the current players, on both sides, to be long gone by the time it can be re-opened. But the fundamentals are all there for a rejoin campaign: -Majority for rejoin in the polls, already there -Majority view that Brexit itself was wrong: 49-39 this week -Age profile of Out/In completely tilted in favour of in -Costs of Brexit much easier to quantify than any benefits. mattbewilson makes a persuasive case on the politics, but my view is that it's a short term one, valid only for current players. My best guess for the mechanics is a reverse-UKIP being formed, going through the usual cycle of being ignored, then mocked, then fought, then joined. Won't have much electoral success itself, but it'll be the same MO as UKIP, getting first the Lib Dems and SNP onside, then finally Labour, into holding a referendum even if the leadership support staying out. And at that point it'll be back to the Thatcherite arguments of 'imagine what we could do in the single market.' The one big banana skin as I see it - currency. The UK will never join the Euro under any circumstances in my view. So if the EU doesn't want us then all they have to do is state that the Euro is mandatory and that'll make it impossible. However unless all EU members are at the point of using the Euro, I would see a classic Euro-fudge on this. But if I was trying to prevent this ever being re-opened I'd be banging on about currency.
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Dec 23, 2021 13:09:26 GMT
Most Remain voters wish we were still in the EU, but that's not the same thing as wanting to go through the referendum process again, because it involves having to hear again from the only people who enjoyed it.
On the other hand, it's comparatively likely that a free trade deal will be done with the EU by a non-Conservative problem, for the simple reason that lowering trade barriers with a large trading bloc in our immediate locality is obviously good for the economy. That will likely restore many of the perceived benefits of being in the UK and it's unlikely that it would be nearly as controversial as EU membership proper would be.
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Dec 23, 2021 17:15:04 GMT
Those are, and this really should be very obvious, not actually the minor obstacles that need to be surmounted.
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Terry Weldon
Lib Dem
Councilor, Waverley BC and Haslemere TC. Lifelong liberal, in S Africa and now UK
Posts: 293
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Post by Terry Weldon on Dec 23, 2021 23:14:51 GMT
And most leavers would have no difficulty with that It's what many prominent leavers promised we would/could get: you can leave the EU, but still have a Norway/Switzerland deal. Until May scuppered that, with "Brexit means Brexit". This is something both sides could get behind, in the short term. Would the EU /EFTA partners accept us?
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Post by No Offence Alan on Dec 23, 2021 23:22:23 GMT
And most leavers would have no difficulty with that It's what many prominent leavers promised we would/could get: you can leave the EU, but still have a Norway/Switzerland deal. Until May scuppered that, with "Brexit means Brexit". This is something both sides could get behind, in the short term. Would the EU /EFTA partners accept us? EFTA would find it insulting to be seen as a short term option.
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Post by andrew111 on Dec 24, 2021 0:52:12 GMT
It's what many prominent leavers promised we would/could get: you can leave the EU, but still have a Norway/Switzerland deal. Until May scuppered that, with "Brexit means Brexit". This is something both sides could get behind, in the short term. Would the EU /EFTA partners accept us? EFTA would find it insulting to be seen as a short term option. While EEA might be perceived as a stepping stone to Rejoin I would suspect that in practice Rejoin would be more likely without it. I don't think the Tories will go for it. They will shed too many votes to Reformararama. The plausible opportunity would be a second term Labour govt worried about shedding votes to us. No need for a referendum as it is just another version of Brexit and "the Will of the People". Labour are probably too frit to put it in a 2024 manifesto, but hopefully we will.
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Post by finsobruce on Jan 1, 2022 10:52:56 GMT
This is all very well but what about the result from North Staffordshire?
Unfortunately the 1878 North Staffordshire by-election offers us very little in the way of excitement. The by election was caused by the elevation of Charles Adderley to the peerage as Lord Norton. Adderley had been in the Commons since 1841, but in 1874 when he was forced to fight a by election as he had been made President of the Board of Trade, having already fought yet another by election in 1858 when he had been appointed Vice President of the Privy council for Education. Neither by election proved too strenuous for him though as he was unopposed in both.
The Ashby De La Zouch Gazette gave an insight into the slightly less than open process in 1878. It reported that the nomination had taken place at the town hall in Stoke on Trent, attended by The High Sheriff and Acting Under Sheriff and noted that " The proceedings were conducted with the utmost quiet, and few people outside the room were probably aware what was going on". The only nomination made was Mr Hanbury, a Conservative and "After the expiration of the appointed time, Mr Hanbury was declared dulyelected".What would have happened if someone else had turned up with his proposer and seconder isn't clear, but it seems fair to say that they weren't expecting anyone else .
So no by election shock here. But the other theme was of a Liberal triumph at the polls. The unopposed by elections might give you an idea that this constituency was a Liberal desert where only Tories feared to tread, but you would be wrong. The Whigs had won the initial (1832) contest in the two member seat with candidates from two famous political families: One Oswald Mosley and Edward Buller Yarde Buller, who later changed the family surname to Manningham-Buller. One of the two seats was lost in 1841, and both in 1847 with Buller failing to regain it in 1857, but succeeding in 1865, and holding it in 1868. But the Liberals did not contest the seat in the 1874 general election or as, we have seen in either of the by elections. But when the 1880 General Election rolled around...
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Post by finsobruce on Jan 1, 2022 11:50:19 GMT
At the turn of January 1880 the London Letter (from our own correspondent - possibly a syndicated column for regional newspapers?) in the Sheffield Independent mused on the prospects for North Staffordshire in the forthcoming general election and wondered why the "Liberal wire-pullers" desire to fight the counties had not yet produced a candidate for this constituency. The writer rated the prospects of a Liberal gain highly noting that "The Pottery towns are...overwhelmingly Liberal" , and noted in passing that the election would surely result in the defeat in Stoke of Dr Kenealy and his "well meaning but not too intelligent colleague, who....at least has the honesty to sit on the Conservative side". The Tory was Robert Heath, but Dr Edward Kenealy had won an 1875 by election as an Independent. Kenealy was a barrister who had found fame by his eccentric and sometimes outrageous conduct after taking over as lead counsel for the 'Tichborne claimant'. Disbarred, he wrote an eight volume history of the case, founded the Magna Charta Association, went on a Nationwide tour to promote his er, theories, won the Stoke by election and then published a book in which he claimed to be the twelfth messenger of God.
But back to North Staffordshire. The writer noted that one of the two Tory MPs for North Staffordshire Colin Campbell had declined to re-stand, probably he thought, because there might be a contest. He was right to be worried, for on the very same day that he was referenced in the papers, the Silverdale and Knutton Liberal Association held a social evening at which much was made of Liberal prospects. Mr Corke, secretary to the Liberal club noted that "all their machinery was in good working order" and would work with other Liberals locally to bring about "a change in the character of the political representation".
So where was the candidate to come from? In late February The Globe newspaper reported that a delegation from the excitable North Staffordshire Liberals had called upon the colliery owner Mr J J Craig concerning the candidacy , Mr Twemlow who was Chairman of the local Quarter Sessions and chair of the Board of Guardians having declined to stand. Whatever they said must have worked for less than a month later Craig was reported addressing a large meeting in at the Queens Arms in Mayfield. Mr Simpson (his agent?) took time to refute Tory allegations that Mr Craig was a London man, had once backed a Tory candidate and knew nothing about agriculture and Craig himself re-inforced these points, setting himself firmly on the side of reform of the land laws, also noting that on the matter of sound finance Mr Gladstone had left a budget surplus of £6 million pounds, predicting that "the name of Gladstone would be remembered when the tongues that villified him had passed forever into silence". He also pronounced himself cautiously in favour of Sunday closing, thus signalling one of the political icebergs that came back to haunt the Liberals in elections to come.
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