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Post by bigfatron on Dec 20, 2021 10:17:04 GMT
Why did the LDs win in NS but Labour failed to win OB&S? Well I would look at it this way... - as far as I can see, OB&S is classic 'new Tory' territory; predominantly elderly, fiercely nationalistic and patriotic, white van man-heavy. I would expect that this constituency has a higher-than-average proportion of those who buy into the culture wars, the narrative that Brexit issues are down to the EU, are strongly anti-immigrant, and are not that bothered by tax increases on the working population as long as they are able to pass the value of their homes on to their kids - in summary, they are probably more OK with Tory performance than the average. - NS is more old school Tory; it will contain a decent slug of 'one nation' conservatives, farming types, a degree of 'noblesse oblige' still applies that cuts both ways. The sight of a bunch of metropolitan Tory elite laughing at ordinary folk as they break the same rules that they've only just announced, following hard on the heels of the Patterson affair - will go down like a bucket of cold sick; it's contrary to everything that they believe in. Brexit for farmers is not turning out as expected or promised, and they perceive money flowing out of areas like their's and up to the North for levelling up. Added to which there is - I believe - a reasonably high proportion of working people in this constituency who will be paying more NI come April and are probably not best pleased. Finally factor in that many centre right voters will pretty much refuse to countenance voting Labour, but will be happy to vote Lib Dem if they are confident that Labour is not dangerous and/or the Tories need a kicking. In OB&S Labour were the alternative - not so in NS, where support could be loaned safely.
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YL
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Post by YL on Dec 20, 2021 10:27:26 GMT
Why did the LDs win in NS but Labour failed to win OB&S? First of all, as normally safe Tory seats go the constituencies are chalk and cheese: right-wing London suburbia on the one hand and an agricultural/small town area largely beyond the commuter belt on the other. Secondly, the circumstances of the North Shropshire by-election were unfavourable for the Government, particularly in that they were linked to the behaviour of the governing party as a whole and not just the MP. Then you have the Lib Dems being better at by-elections than Labour. This isn't new: the Lib Dems and their predecessors have won normally safe Tory seats in by-elections in every Parliament with a majority Tory government since the 1950s, except 2015-17, whereas Labour have mostly only won seats you'd expect them to win in a General Election victory anyway. I also think the Tories made an odd choice of candidate in North Shropshire, though I doubt that was decisive.
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Dec 20, 2021 10:32:15 GMT
Probably because Tory voters are more likely to vote LD than Labour in by-elections. Combined with the timing of partygate and the Lib Dems simply being better at fighting by-elections when they decide to really go for it. Yeah, but Andrew_S has the fundamental. We could have thrown everything at B & S and done no better than Labour did at absolute best. Partygate probably gave us the comfortable majority rather than recount territory but word on the ground was that the Tory vote was incredibly soft before we'd even officially selected our candidate. Peppa Pig was identified as a bigger deal than sleaze. Whatever your views on lockdown fact is we're all a bit miserable about it. Solidarity and vaccine optimism has given way not so much to discontent with Covid policy (though it exists as we see on this forum) but general tiredness and strain, like having a new baby but without any of the fun and love - people are on edge and unforgiving mood. Add inflation to that. Afghanistan wasn't a big political issue because foreign policy rarely is but it's one of a series of examples of the government incompetence. You can still be 100% Leave but think Brexit isn't delivering on the promises and e.g. wish they'd just bloody fix NI, like they said they had done. The Paterson Affair was more damaging to Johnson than Paterson - Paterson just got caught being naughty, given the contempt for all MPs no-one was that shocked, he reacted badly but people could forgive that in a bereaved man and if he'd served his 30 days it'd be forgotten. But Johnson gratuitously tried to change the rules to benefit his privileged mates, which is exactly what people fear about the Tories and which decent Tories won't tolerate either, and then cocked it up and had to retreat anyway. The classic Johnson mix of self-entitlement and cock-up. In that context Johnson's shambling speeches don't seem so charming when you want the man in charge to get a grip. Tories were looking to make a point - they're still Tory at heart and most will probably return home, but the LDs are the only party that (a) credibly might win a Westminster by-election (b) don't evoke visceral dislike among ordinary Tory voters (unlike activists)
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iang
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Post by iang on Dec 20, 2021 11:36:15 GMT
I wouldn't say OB&S is exactly "white van territory", and I think the degree to which it is nationalistic etc is exaggerated, but it is substantially middle class, and also not very London - it's one of those areas which although it has been London for over 50 years, still largely thinks of itself as Kent (my parents still have a Kent postcode). But by London standards (I think - I haven't looked up the figures) it would be pretty white still, the most affluent areas (eg around Bexley itself) are very comfortable, and perhaps most importantly, most of the wards are still Tory at local level. The Lib Dems once had a lock on the Welling wards, but haven't since the late 90s and I think are pretty inactive as a local party, and Labour are stronger in other parts of the Borough. Add in that the previous MP seems to have been genuinely competent and popular, and died tragically young, and you've got a situation that whatever the national picture was not as vulnerable to an opposition party as was Shropshire North
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neilm
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Post by neilm on Dec 20, 2021 11:43:38 GMT
I wouldn't say OB&S is exactly "white van territory", and I think the degree to which it is nationalistic etc is exaggerated, but it is substantially middle class, and also not very London - it's one of those areas which although it has been London for over 50 years, still largely thinks of itself as Kent (my parents still have a Kent postcode). But by London standards (I think - I haven't looked up the figures) it would be pretty white still, the most affluent areas (eg around Bexley itself) are very comfortable, and perhaps most importantly, most of the wards are still Tory at local level. The Lib Dems once had a lock on the Welling wards, but haven't since the late 90s and I think are pretty inactive as a local party, and Labour are stronger in other parts of the Borough. Add in that the previous MP seems to have been genuinely competent and popular, and died tragically young, and you've got a situation that whatever the national picture was not as vulnerable to an opposition party as was Shropshire North This probably isn't the best phrase to use but I think you sometimes get a "siege mentality" in places like Bexley which are culturally conservative but very close to areas that are the opposite like Woolwich, Greenwich, Lewisham, etc, which means that Tory voters are more likely to stubbornly stick with the party come what may. North Shropshire isn't like that — it's surrounded by culturally similar constituencies, so people may feel freer to vote for other parties, especially at by-elections. I agree. Something that oftentimes goes unremarked upon.
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Post by batman on Dec 20, 2021 11:54:46 GMT
Combined with the timing of partygate and the Lib Dems simply being better at fighting by-elections when they decide to really go for it. Yeah, but Andrew_S has the fundamental. We could have thrown everything at B & S and done no better than Labour did at absolute best. Partygate probably gave us the comfortable majority rather than recount territory but word on the ground was that the Tory vote was incredibly soft before we'd even officially selected our candidate. Peppa Pig was identified as a bigger deal than sleaze. Whatever your views on lockdown fact is we're all a bit miserable about it. Solidarity and vaccine optimism has given way not so much to discontent with Covid policy (though it exists as we see on this forum) but general tiredness and strain, like having a new baby but without any of the fun and love - people are on edge and unforgiving mood. Add inflation to that. Afghanistan wasn't a big political issue because foreign policy rarely is but it's one of a series of examples of the government incompetence. You can still be 100% Leave but think Brexit isn't delivering on the promises and e.g. wish they'd just bloody fix NI, like they said they had done. The Paterson Affair was more damaging to Johnson than Paterson - Paterson just got caught being naughty, given the contempt for all MPs no-one was that shocked, he reacted badly but people could forgive that in a bereaved man and if he'd served his 30 days it'd be forgotten. But Johnson gratuitously tried to change the rules to benefit his privileged mates, which is exactly what people fear about the Tories and which decent Tories won't tolerate either, and then cocked it up and had to retreat anyway. The classic Johnson mix of self-entitlement and cock-up. In that context Johnson's shambling speeches don't seem so charming when you want the man in charge to get a grip. Tories were looking to make a point - they're still Tory at heart and most will probably return home, but the LDs are the only party that (a) credibly might win a Westminster by-election (b) don't evoke visceral dislike among ordinary Tory voters (unlike activists) mostly true, certainly if you mean this constituency, though obviously Labour would win by-elections at the moment in a very large number of constituencies - if there were a by-election in at least 120 Tory seats they would be Labour gains at present, probably more than 120 in fact.
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Post by batman on Dec 20, 2021 11:56:43 GMT
I wouldn't say OB&S is exactly "white van territory", and I think the degree to which it is nationalistic etc is exaggerated, but it is substantially middle class, and also not very London - it's one of those areas which although it has been London for over 50 years, still largely thinks of itself as Kent (my parents still have a Kent postcode). But by London standards (I think - I haven't looked up the figures) it would be pretty white still, the most affluent areas (eg around Bexley itself) are very comfortable, and perhaps most importantly, most of the wards are still Tory at local level. The Lib Dems once had a lock on the Welling wards, but haven't since the late 90s and I think are pretty inactive as a local party, and Labour are stronger in other parts of the Borough. Add in that the previous MP seems to have been genuinely competent and popular, and died tragically young, and you've got a situation that whatever the national picture was not as vulnerable to an opposition party as was Shropshire North very good point Ian - the cause of the by-election was clearly far less harmful to the Conservatives than in North Shropshire. That often has a major impact on comparative results in local by-elections, and it surely played a part in these 2 parliamentary ones.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Dec 20, 2021 12:14:29 GMT
Why did the LDs win in NS but Labour failed to win OB&S? OBS was a fortnight earlier? (actually, it probably wouldn't have gone Labour even last Thursday - but this genuinely isn't a trivial factor)
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Dec 20, 2021 12:30:38 GMT
There are just so many factors present in the North Shropshire by election that either weren't there at all in OB&S or were substantially less prominent / important at the time.
1. Anger with Paterson.
2. Sympathy with Paterson and anger over the Tories abandoning him. Don't underestimate this one, he was a popular local and his wife's suicide was well known.
3. Farmers pissed off over some of the realities of Brexit and/or free trade deals.
4. Anger over lockdown restrictions.
5. Anger over government "parties"
Between those five reasons you probably cover pretty much every Tory voter in North Shropshire. 1-3 were completely absent in OB&S while 4-5 were not as significant a couple of weeks ago. Throw in the very different demographics and the previous well regarded Tory MP having died tragically young and the difference between the two by elections are simply immense.
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Dec 20, 2021 13:33:43 GMT
Yeah, but Andrew_S has the fundamental. We could have thrown everything at B & S and done no better than Labour did at absolute best. Partygate probably gave us the comfortable majority rather than recount territory but word on the ground was that the Tory vote was incredibly soft before we'd even officially selected our candidate. Peppa Pig was identified as a bigger deal than sleaze. Whatever your views on lockdown fact is we're all a bit miserable about it. Solidarity and vaccine optimism has given way not so much to discontent with Covid policy (though it exists as we see on this forum) but general tiredness and strain, like having a new baby but without any of the fun and love - people are on edge and unforgiving mood. Add inflation to that. Afghanistan wasn't a big political issue because foreign policy rarely is but it's one of a series of examples of the government incompetence. You can still be 100% Leave but think Brexit isn't delivering on the promises and e.g. wish they'd just bloody fix NI, like they said they had done. The Paterson Affair was more damaging to Johnson than Paterson - Paterson just got caught being naughty, given the contempt for all MPs no-one was that shocked, he reacted badly but people could forgive that in a bereaved man and if he'd served his 30 days it'd be forgotten. But Johnson gratuitously tried to change the rules to benefit his privileged mates, which is exactly what people fear about the Tories and which decent Tories won't tolerate either, and then cocked it up and had to retreat anyway. The classic Johnson mix of self-entitlement and cock-up. In that context Johnson's shambling speeches don't seem so charming when you want the man in charge to get a grip. Tories were looking to make a point - they're still Tory at heart and most will probably return home, but the LDs are the only party that (a) credibly might win a Westminster by-election (b) don't evoke visceral dislike among ordinary Tory voters (unlike activists) mostly true, certainly if you mean this constituency, though obviously Labour would win by-elections at the moment in a very large number of constituencies - if there were a by-election in at least 120 Tory seats they would be Labour gains at present, probably more than 120 in fact. Absolutely. And I agree on bigfatron's analysis of why this constituency was ripe for us compared to Bexley & Sidcup. A by-election in a former Red Wall seat would be a very interesting thing right now.
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Dec 20, 2021 14:32:36 GMT
To reiterate what others have said, the Lib Dems are able and willing to throw the kitchen sink at a constituency that will previously have had little to no work. They are also a party that most people have fairly weak views on (outside the coalition and immediate aftermath) and certainly don’t receive the sort of negative partisanship that Labour and Conservative voters hold for the other major party. Instead, they can mop up protest votes against the government whether based on general discontent or specific local issues. As we all know they do this to an even more extreme extent at the council level, as increasingly do the Greens (the latter have not been able to translate it to the Parliamentary level yet).
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bsjmcr
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Post by bsjmcr on Dec 20, 2021 21:42:05 GMT
To reiterate what others have said, the Lib Dems are able and willing to throw the kitchen sink at a constituency that will previously have had little to no work. They are also a party that most people have fairly weak views on (outside the coalition and immediate aftermath) and certainly don’t receive the sort of negative partisanship that Labour and Conservative voters hold for the other major party. Instead, they can mop up protest votes against the government whether based on general discontent or specific local issues. As we all know they do this to an even more extreme extent at the council level, as increasingly do the Greens (the latter have not been able to translate it to the Parliamentary level yet). It was certainly quite extraordinary that, with Brexit ‘done’, in a 60% Leave area they were able to get the result they did. Yet in 2019, with Brexit not done, Leavers roundly punished Labour for being a ‘remain’ party (the Leadership also being an issue of course but that’s a different debate) But you’re right, I realise on a local election level the LDs have been able to see past Brexit/the Coalition, I’m sure I recall seeing on Twitter some ‘unlikely’ LD gains in Sunderland, and in Manchester the Green’s sole gain was not in the studenty wards or Didsbury, but in the ward of Wythenshawe containing the airport (likely Leave)
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Post by greenhert on Dec 20, 2021 21:50:27 GMT
To reiterate what others have said, the Lib Dems are able and willing to throw the kitchen sink at a constituency that will previously have had little to no work. They are also a party that most people have fairly weak views on (outside the coalition and immediate aftermath) and certainly don’t receive the sort of negative partisanship that Labour and Conservative voters hold for the other major party. Instead, they can mop up protest votes against the government whether based on general discontent or specific local issues. As we all know they do this to an even more extreme extent at the council level, as increasingly do the Greens (the latter have not been able to translate it to the Parliamentary level yet). It was certainly quite extraordinary that, with Brexit ‘done’, in a 60% Leave area they were able to get the result they did. Yet in 2019, with Brexit not done, Leavers roundly punished Labour for being a ‘remain’ party (the Leadership also being an issue of course but that’s a different debate) But you’re right, I realise on a local election level the LDs have been able to see past Brexit/the Coalition, I’m sure I recall seeing on Twitter some ‘unlikely’ LD gains in Sunderland, and in Manchester the Green’s sole gain was not in the studenty wards or Didsbury, but in the ward of Wythenshawe containing the airport (likely Leave)By which you mean Woodhouse Park ward.
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bsjmcr
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Post by bsjmcr on Dec 20, 2021 22:07:10 GMT
It was certainly quite extraordinary that, with Brexit ‘done’, in a 60% Leave area they were able to get the result they did. Yet in 2019, with Brexit not done, Leavers roundly punished Labour for being a ‘remain’ party (the Leadership also being an issue of course but that’s a different debate) But you’re right, I realise on a local election level the LDs have been able to see past Brexit/the Coalition, I’m sure I recall seeing on Twitter some ‘unlikely’ LD gains in Sunderland, and in Manchester the Green’s sole gain was not in the studenty wards or Didsbury, but in the ward of Wythenshawe containing the airport (likely Leave)By which you mean Woodhouse Park ward. I do indeed but it’s an odd name that doesn’t really make it placeable to anyone outside Manchester, or even within it really (and to give context I was wondering if maybe airport expansion was the local issue there?). Ringway would make more sense if it wasn’t Airport. But that’s for another thread (which probably already exists being a perennial bugbear of mine!)
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bsjmcr
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Post by bsjmcr on Dec 20, 2021 22:09:40 GMT
To reiterate what others have said, the Lib Dems are able and willing to throw the kitchen sink at a constituency that will previously have had little to no work. They are also a party that most people have fairly weak views on (outside the coalition and immediate aftermath) and certainly don’t receive the sort of negative partisanship that Labour and Conservative voters hold for the other major party. Instead, they can mop up protest votes against the government whether based on general discontent or specific local issues. As we all know they do this to an even more extreme extent at the council level, as increasingly do the Greens (the latter have not been able to translate it to the Parliamentary level yet). It was certainly quite extraordinary that, with Brexit ‘done’, in a 60% Leave area they were able to get the result they did. Yet in 2019, with Brexit not done, Leavers roundly punished Labour for being a ‘remain’ party (the Leadership also being an issue of course but that’s a different debate) But you’re right, I realise on a local election level the LDs have been able to see past Brexit/the Coalition, I’m sure I recall seeing on Twitter some ‘ unlikely’ LD gains in Sunderland, and in Manchester the Green’s sole gain was not in the studenty wards or Didsbury, but in the ward of Wythenshawe containing the airport (likely Leave) Heck, the LDs should just throw the kitchen sink at Houghton and Sunderland South ‘just for the bants’ to really confuse all the election experts and pollsters for the first two hours of Election Night… (sorry Ms Philipson…)
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Dec 20, 2021 22:16:40 GMT
By which you mean Woodhouse Park ward. I do indeed but it’s an odd name that doesn’t really make it placeable to anyone outside Manchester, or even within it really (and to give context I was wondering if maybe airport expansion was the local issue there?). Ringway would make more sense if it wasn’t Airport. But that’s for another thread (which probably already exists being a perennial bugbear of mine!) Unlike you, most people here are familiar with placenames (and especially ward names) beyond a five mile radius of where they live
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bsjmcr
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Post by bsjmcr on Dec 20, 2021 22:19:33 GMT
I do indeed but it’s an odd name that doesn’t really make it placeable to anyone outside Manchester, or even within it really (and to give context I was wondering if maybe airport expansion was the local issue there?). Ringway would make more sense if it wasn’t Airport. But that’s for another thread (which probably already exists being a perennial bugbear of mine!) Unlike you, most people here are familiar with placenames (and especially ward names) beyond a five mile radius of where they live Probably even less than that given I don’t live in Scotland but one of my neighbouring wards is called Holyrood…
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hengo
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Post by hengo on Dec 20, 2021 22:46:14 GMT
Finally spoke to my sister in law today who has lived all her life in Oswestry. Her comments: “ Did you see us all on the telly then?.”.;“ it was all a bit of a laugh” “ ;Fancy the Conservatives sending some bloke from Birmingham! “ “We all voted LibDem - we never saw a single Tory, just one Labour but loads of LifDems everywhere, fair play” ; “ We’ll vote conservative again next time of course”
She’s not in the least political , and I’d say a very typical Oswestrian.
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Post by greenhert on Dec 20, 2021 23:44:53 GMT
Given how much of a disaster the Conservative campaign was, even a well-known local candidate would have lost this by-election.
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Post by londonseal80 on Dec 21, 2021 7:14:32 GMT
Why did the LDs win in NS but Labour failed to win OB&S? Old Bexley and Sidcup though in Greater London, doesn’t really have the London demographics to make it competitive for Labour and if anything is more similar to areas just outside the boundary like Ewell or Chigwell (though both areas are probably more affluent than OBS bar the council estate wards) than South East London.
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