iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,435 
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Post by iain on Oct 31, 2021 11:25:51 GMT
These are being held tomorrow. Neither the ANC or DA seem confident of any great success.
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Post by finsobruce on Oct 31, 2021 11:31:18 GMT
These are being held tomorrow. Neither the ANC or DA seem confident of any great success. Will no-one think of the Expectation managers? |
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Terry Weldon
Lib Dem
Councilor, Waverley BC and Haslemere TC. Lifelong liberal, in S Africa and now UK
Posts: 307
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Post by Terry Weldon on Oct 31, 2021 21:16:23 GMT
Both the ANC and the DA have good reason to be worried. ANC have been badly damaged by the widespread corruption, not-delivery and sheer maladministration on their watch over many years. Current "load shedding" disruptions to energy supplies have not helped - especially not on the eve of elections. Their share of vote will certainly fall. The only question is, "How much"?
The DA, as official opposition, should be the natural beneficiaries, and a few years ago they were steadily gaining support. More recently, they've lost the plot, as their most prominent Black leaders have left in disillusionment.
The bright spot may be the rise of some credible new, minor parties. Between them, they will likely force coalition administrations in a wide range of municipalities, including some major metros. That could usher in a whole new style of politics - possibly also for the national govt, after the next GE in 2024.
Tomorrow's results should be really interesting, for anyone following SA politics.
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,435
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Post by iain on Oct 31, 2021 21:30:52 GMT
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Terry Weldon
Lib Dem
Councilor, Waverley BC and Haslemere TC. Lifelong liberal, in S Africa and now UK
Posts: 307
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Post by Terry Weldon on Oct 31, 2021 23:49:01 GMT
What I'll be "watching for" and "hoping for" are two different things.
Whatever the mistakes of the DA in the last few years, the fact is that in terms of sheer administrative efficiency, their record in local government far outstrips that of the ANC. I would hate to see them lose control of the councils they currently control - although it could do them good to lose a few seats.
I'll be watching for the performance of Action SA and the Good Party (that really is their name), hoping that they can make significant breakthroughs in selected areas, forcing genuine multi-party coalitions.
I'll be keeping a wary eye on the rabble rousing kleptocrats the EFF, who claim to stand up for the poor, but in practice are only in it for themselves. I hope they've reached a ceiling to their support.
I'll also be interested to see if the ANC problems and record of rioting in Kwa-Zulu Natal province, can lead to a revival for the IFP. In many respects they're a tribalistic personality cult built around an ageing leader, but a strong countervailing force to the ANC could be constructive - or could lead to another round of the deadly violence that wracked the province in the build-up to the 1994 elections.
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Nov 1, 2021 4:32:43 GMT
Let's hope the racist lunatics in the EFF don't do too well.
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Terry Weldon
Lib Dem
Councilor, Waverley BC and Haslemere TC. Lifelong liberal, in S Africa and now UK
Posts: 307
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Post by Terry Weldon on Nov 1, 2021 9:07:35 GMT
Sadly, this pic rather sums it up
What I'll also be watching for, is the progress of independents and local community groups. They made advances in the last LE (2016), and continued their gains in by-elections since. There are now twice as many independents as in 2016, and community groups have had notable successes in the courts, holding councils to account. (Notably in Makana - formerly Grahamstown, but also elsewhere).
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,435
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Post by iain on Nov 1, 2021 9:16:33 GMT
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Terry Weldon
Lib Dem
Councilor, Waverley BC and Haslemere TC. Lifelong liberal, in S Africa and now UK
Posts: 307
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Post by Terry Weldon on Nov 1, 2021 14:54:05 GMT
My recollection of previous elections is that the IEC website (as your link) is not particularly helpful. They reported only total results for each province, which were heavily skewed by which districts happened to report first. The early figures and final results differed hugely. Much more useful was the reports from the news site @news24 (either on Twitter, or their main website). This year, a particularly useful Twitter feed is from elections analyst @dawiescholtz, who has done superb work in the past based on examining differential turnout rates between the suburban (ie "white") and township polling districts. His very active feed for today notes that overall, turnout appears unusually low in all provinces - but especially low in township areas. If this differential is greater than in 2016. the conclusion will be that the ANC will suffer greater losses than the DA - who could also lose support to the smaller parties. That is exactly what many commentators have been expecting. |
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Terry Weldon
Lib Dem
Councilor, Waverley BC and Haslemere TC. Lifelong liberal, in S Africa and now UK
Posts: 307
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Post by Terry Weldon on Nov 1, 2021 15:45:49 GMT
The @news24 election website was particularly helpful last time, for live reporting of detailed results not only for all individual wards (which we don't see from any of our British news media), but even for individual polling districts - which in most cases, are not even released in the UK.
In S Africa's very diverse electorate, this granular detail is helpful in assessing results from wards which include very diverse neighbourhoods -eg township PD's + suburban "white" + traditionally Asian or mixed race areas.
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johng
Labour
Posts: 4,850
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Post by johng on Nov 1, 2021 22:10:04 GMT
This year, a particularly useful Twitter feed is from elections analyst @dawiescholtz, who has done superb work in the past based on examining differential turnout rates between the suburban (ie "white") and township polling districts. His very active feed for today notes that overall, turnout appears unusually low in all provinces - but especially low in township areas. I just had a look and I agree. Looks like very interesting useful stuff. |
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Terry Weldon
Lib Dem
Councilor, Waverley BC and Haslemere TC. Lifelong liberal, in S Africa and now UK
Posts: 307
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Post by Terry Weldon on Nov 1, 2021 22:25:54 GMT
V early results, from a tiny handful of tiny PD's, show results all over the place compared with 2016.
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Post by Delighted Of Tunbridge Wells on Nov 1, 2021 22:34:15 GMT
V early results, from a tiny handful of tiny PD's, show results all over the place compared with 2016. Indeed, but, according to Dawie Scholtz, the ANC is losing a lot to Action SA in Soweto. |
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Terry Weldon
Lib Dem
Councilor, Waverley BC and Haslemere TC. Lifelong liberal, in S Africa and now UK
Posts: 307
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Post by Terry Weldon on Nov 1, 2021 22:51:20 GMT
V early results, from a tiny handful of tiny PD's, show results all over the place compared with 2016. Indeed, but, according to Dawie Scholtz, the ANC is losing a lot to Action SA in Soweto. I saw that. Only two polling stations (not wards), but the change in those two was dramatic, with ANC support down by half in Soweto - the heart of their Johannesburg support. If anything like that holds, they'll be in even deeper shit than expected. Social media chitchat in the runup suggested that Action SA ground campaign was as active in the suburbs as in the townships. If they can also make gains in those burbs, they'll be in an excellent position. V early days, but it really does look like this election is a fundamental game changer, at least in Johannesburg. |
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Terry Weldon
Lib Dem
Councilor, Waverley BC and Haslemere TC. Lifelong liberal, in S Africa and now UK
Posts: 307
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Post by Terry Weldon on Nov 1, 2021 22:55:17 GMT
Report that Action SA have won a voting district in an Indian area in Natal. I don't think that was expected to be an important area for their possible strength. If they can show reasonable impact across the various racial/community groups, that will be most extremely welcome news.
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Post by Delighted Of Tunbridge Wells on Nov 1, 2021 23:00:37 GMT
Indeed, but, according to Dawie Scholtz, the ANC is losing a lot to Action SA in Soweto. I saw that. Only two polling stations (not wards), but the change in those two was dramatic, with ANC support down by half in Soweto - the heart of their Johannesburg support. If anything like that holds, they'll be in even deeper shit than expected. Social media chitchat in the runup suggested that Action SA ground campaign was as active in the suburbs as in the townships. If they can also make gains in those burbs, they'll be in an excellent position. V early days, but it really does look like this election is a fundamental game changer, at least in Johannesburg. Maybe, but they're also saying turnout has been atrocious in the townships, which is where most of the ANC vote comes from I'm assuming. |
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Terry Weldon
Lib Dem
Councilor, Waverley BC and Haslemere TC. Lifelong liberal, in S Africa and now UK
Posts: 307
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Post by Terry Weldon on Nov 1, 2021 23:01:32 GMT
Also reporting results and worth following tonight is @waynesussman.
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Nov 2, 2021 2:27:39 GMT
Strong, powerful, accurate words.
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Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,815
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Post by Georg Ebner on Nov 2, 2021 9:30:07 GMT
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Post by Arthur Figgis on Nov 2, 2021 9:52:17 GMT
Msunduzi municipality in KwaZulu-Natal:
DA 102.6%
ANC 23.7%
EFF 14.0%
Um...
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