South Africa local elections

[iain]

A few projections, with changes from 2016:

Cape Town - from N24
DA - 58% (-8%)
ANC - 20% (-4%)
EFF - 4% (+1%)
Good - 3% (new)
ACDP - 3% (+2%)

Ekurhuleni (East Rand) - from N24
ANC - 38% (-11%)
DA - 29% (-5%)
ECC - 14% (+3%)
Action SA - 6% (new)
VF+ - 3% (+2%)

Nelson Mandela Bay (Port Elizabeth) - from N24 - from eNCA
DA - 42% - 43% (-5/-4%)
ANC - 40% - 39% (-1/-2%)
EFF - 7% - 6% (+2/+1%)
VF+ - 1% - 1.5% (+1/+1.5%)

Mangaung (Bloemfontein) - from eNCA
ANC - 50% (-7%)
DA - 24% (-2%)
EFF - 10% (+1%)
VF+ - 4% (+2%)

[iain]

[Deleted]

Nov 2, 2021 14:02:29 GMT iain said:

That is astonishing, but I wonder if the turnout differential will still apply at a GE

[iain]

A couple more projections from N24:

Tshwane (Pretoria)
ANC - 34% (-7%)
DA - 34% (-9%)
EFF - 11% (-1%)
VF+ - 8% (+6%)
Action SA - 7% (new)

Johannesburg
ANC - 34% (-11%)
DA - 28% (-10%)
Action SA - 17% (new)
EFF - 11% (-)
VF+ - 2% (+2%)
IFP - 2% (-)

[finsobruce]

Nov 2, 2021 16:55:46 GMT iain said:

A couple more projections from N24:

Tshwane (Pretoria)
ANC - 34% (-7%)
DA - 34% (-9%)
EFF - 11% (-1%)
VF+ - 8% (+6%)
Action SA - 7% (new)

Johannesburg
ANC - 34% (-11%)
DA - 28% (-10%)
Action SA - 17% (new)
EFF - 11% (-)
VF+ - 2% (+2%)
IFP - 2% (-)

Obviously Action SA's  impressive debut in Johannesburg was helped by the previous mayor who 'defected' but it's interesting that in Pretoria both the VF and Action SA look like coming close to passing the EFF .

[Terry Weldon]

Counting and reporting from SA have been painfully slow, and full results are not expected until Thursday evening ("90%" by Wednesday evening, says the IEC).

However, those results that have been confirmed, the IEC has a wealth of information on the dashboard - right down to voting district level. From the map on the dashboard, select a province, then a ward (if available), then a VD. For full detail, the figures are also available elsewhere as tables in either excel or PDFformat.

Would be nice to have this level of detail freely available for UK elections,in both map and tabular formats.

[iain]

Projections for the other two metro councils:

Buffalo City (East London):
ANC - 60% (+1%)
DA - 19% (-4%)
EFF - 12% (+4%)
UDM - 1% (-)

eThekwini (Durban):
ANC - 44% (-12%)
DA - 26% (-1%)
EFF - 10% (+7%)
IFP - 7% (+3%)
ActionSA - 2% (new)

[The Bishop]

One thing that seems clear is that the DA aren't generally benefiting much from ANC losses.

[iain]

It's certainly been a disappointing election for the DA. They rather gave up on trying to attract middle class blacks (their MO in recent years) this election, in order to try and stop the bleeding of Afrikaans whites to the VF+.

Rather than reversing that trend, it has intensified, and the DA have also done particularly poorly (albeit still over 50%) with Coloured voters. It's a little difficult to see where the party goes from here.

[Georg Ebner]

Nov 3, 2021 13:22:01 GMT iain said:

It's certainly been a disappointing election for the DA.

Was it really "disappointing", i.e. surprising?

[iain]

Nov 3, 2021 13:54:02 GMT Georg Ebner said:

Nov 3, 2021 13:22:01 GMT iain said:

It's certainly been a disappointing election for the DA.

Was it really "disappointing", i.e. surprising?

Surprising, no, but definitely disappointing - their basic strategy, to shore up minority votes, failed, and they also made no real inroads into the ANC vote, despite that party's fall in popularity.

[Forfarshire Conservative]

It should be mentioned that the DA have got the mayoralties of Joburg and Ekurhuleni off the ANC.

[robert1]

ANC no longer controls any of the metros in Gauteng.

[jollyroger93]

keep an eye on Mpho Phalatse, she's a is a single mum of 3, a Doctor, and now mayor of Joburg. If she governs well or can pull together a half decent coalition, she is going to build some decent momentum i would say within the DA..... Future leader perhaps?