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Post by Deleted on Jan 31, 2022 14:24:12 GMT
Unless you use a national list with no thresholds, that kind of result is always possible where you have 1) a large popular vote lead 2) a fragmented opposition including a large number of parties achieving vote below but close to the threshold 3) small electoral districts. In Braganca for example only three seats are elected and this time the PS were able to win two of them with 40% of the vote (and there are plenty of similar examples - in Portalegra there are only two seats and PS won both of them with less than 50% of the vote) One question one might ask is what would have happened if the Portuguese general election had been fought on strictly FPTP lines. I rather imagine it might have been an absolute landslide for the PS with a small SD rump and most of the smaller parties disappearing into oblivion? Although the fragmentation on the right probably wouldn't have been as bad and you'd need to look at the vote distribution within districts rather than totals across districts - ie if the PS votes in Bragança are really concentrated in one place then it's not impossible the 2:1 win for PS would have been reversed under FPTP (and if the votes are evenly spread but the right vote more tactically, it could have been 3:0 for PSD) |
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Post by connor on Jan 31, 2022 15:15:04 GMT
Costa gets another four years I take it. 2015 to 2026 potentially. That would make him the longest serving Portuguese prime minister in many years.
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Post by minionofmidas on Jan 31, 2022 16:07:44 GMT
Unless you use a national list with no thresholds, that kind of result is always possible where you have 1) a large popular vote lead 2) a fragmented opposition including a large number of parties achieving vote below but close to the threshold 3) small electoral districts. In Braganca for example only three seats are elected and this time the PS were able to win two of them with 40% of the vote (and there are plenty of similar examples - in Portalegra there are only two seats and PS won both of them with less than 50% of the vote) One question one might ask is what would have happened if the Portuguese general election had been fought on strictly FPTP lines. I rather imagine it might have been an absolute landslide for the PS with a small SD rump and most of the smaller parties disappearing into oblivion? except for the commies they wouldn't have disappeared because they would never have existed (been represented) in the first place. |
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Post by greenhert on Jan 31, 2022 17:58:58 GMT
With 199 seats counted the current scoreline is: PS 107, PPD/PSD 65, CH 10, IL 5, BE 3, CDU (PCP-PEV) 4. Already the "hard left" are set for a severe drubbing, and both PAN (Portugal's Animal Welfare Party) and LIVRE (Portugal's "light green" party) are facing elimination from the Assembly of the [Portuguese] Republic. Furthermore PS are topping the poll in every Portuguese region-even Villa Real and Braganca. YOu mean mainland region. PSD carried Madeira I do. Madeira was in fact the only "region" PSD carried anywhere in Portugal. This is the first time since 2005 (and only the second since multiparty democracy resumed in Portugal in 1975) that the PS have carried Vila Real, which is a close equivalent to Labour winning the most seats in North Yorkshire in a UK general election. |
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Post by johnloony on Jan 31, 2022 22:29:52 GMT
Earlier posts on this thread referred to Brenda from Braga, although in light of recent exchanges she was probably from Braganca. Overall disaster for the communists and Left Bloc (Corbynistas) who were turkeys voting for Christmas. generally speaking as I understand it the PS are fairly left wing themselves and many commentators compared the PS government as something Corbynistas wished to emulate I am old enough to remember when the 3 main parties in Portugal were Social Democrats (right), Socialist (centre-left), and Communist (Maoist). I have often thought that if the 1974 revolution had gone only slightly differently, Portugal might have turned into a sort-of Albania on the Atlantic coast. |
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Post by greenhert on Jan 31, 2022 22:45:33 GMT
CDS wiped out entirely. Thus ends an era. Wiped out in terms of seats- still more votes than some parties who gained the odd seat. Not impossible to come back from here- other parties , other countries have done so, of course Yes but regional analysis of this election shows that Chega's best results correlated with the worst losses for the CDS-PP. It is clear that Chega have displaced CDS-PP amongst the Christian right and nationalist right, especially as Portugal, like most of the Western Hemisphere, becomes more and more secular gradually. |
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Post by yellowperil on Feb 1, 2022 7:19:32 GMT
Wiped out in terms of seats- still more votes than some parties who gained the odd seat. Not impossible to come back from here- other parties , other countries have done so, of course Yes but regional analysis of this election shows that Chega's best results correlated with the worst losses for the CDS-PP. It is clear that Chega have displaced CDS-PP amongst the Christian right and nationalist right, especially as Portugal, like most of the Western Hemisphere, becomes more and more secular gradually. Well. quite, but I don't think that we can ever say such processes are irreversible. |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Feb 1, 2022 8:21:35 GMT
YOu mean mainland region. PSD carried Madeira This is the first time since 2005 (and only the second since multiparty democracy resumed in Portugal in 1975) that the PS have carried Vila Real, which is a close equivalent to Labour winning the most seats in North Yorkshire in a UK general election. They had carried it before (2005 aso.). You mixed it with Leiria (which is indeed a novelty). |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 1, 2022 20:09:23 GMT
Still don't appear to have been any overseas votes counted (I know they don't really matter at this point but I always like to follow these things to the bitter end)
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Feb 2, 2022 12:06:48 GMT
As written before, the pollsters performed excellently last time:  But not this time - the DeViations were lowest (0.8% per party) in MidJanuary:  |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 5, 2022 0:21:26 GMT
Does anyone know when we can expect the first results from Portuguese abroad?
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Feb 5, 2022 12:59:20 GMT
Does anyone know when we can expect the first results from Portuguese abroad? If i remember correctly, mail can come in until the 9th. |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 10, 2022 12:38:42 GMT
Can someone move my other two posts over from the Portuguese elections thread? I put them in the wrong place without noticing.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 10, 2022 12:39:54 GMT
PSD have won outside Europe by 7.5% and the seats split 1:1. The PS tsunami within Portugal appears not have been repeated amongst the diaspora
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Post by minionofmidas on Feb 10, 2022 14:41:32 GMT
PSD have won outside Europe by 7.5% and the seats split 1:1. The PS tsunami within Portugal appears not have been repeated amongst the diaspora there was a major increase in turnout and a massive decline in blank votes. There's also just not much of a diaspora BE and PCP vote to squeeze. |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Feb 15, 2022 23:13:46 GMT
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