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Post by jonnysaintsfan on Jan 31, 2022 0:21:15 GMT
The PS are left wing and since I have lived in Portugal have shown themselves to be very competent. However every left wing party always has their impossibility, which in Portugal are Bloco Esquerda. Corbynistas extraordinaire.
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Post by jonnysaintsfan on Jan 31, 2022 0:22:24 GMT
Oops. Impossiblistas.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 31, 2022 0:57:55 GMT
Looks like PS have actually won a majority of seats in Portugal, with 7 still to be assigned. There are also the 4 overseas seats to come
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Post by Deleted on Jan 31, 2022 1:01:03 GMT
All the results from Portugal are in, PS have 117 seats - they only needed 115 for a majority and usually get 2 from Portuguese abroad (although I guess it's not impossible that they gain a seat there as well)
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Post by minionofmidas on Jan 31, 2022 7:42:07 GMT
CDS wiped out entirely. Thus ends an era.
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Post by yellowperil on Jan 31, 2022 8:00:54 GMT
CDS wiped out entirely. Thus ends an era. Wiped out in terms of seats- still more votes than some parties who gained the odd seat. Not impossible to come back from here- other parties , other countries have done so, of course |
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Post by seanryanj on Jan 31, 2022 9:26:25 GMT
Well the old polls got it wrong, looks like a higher turnout than expected and they wanted to stay with what they had. The hard left over played their hand. While the far right did well so too did the Liberals so interesting opposition. Great result though for PM even he seemed shocked.
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Post by finsobruce on Jan 31, 2022 9:35:44 GMT
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Jan 31, 2022 9:59:06 GMT
Looks rather like the clutch of polls showing the PSD edging ahead last week scared quite a few voters into the PS camp.
Parallels with a certain election three decades ago, perhaps. Hopefully the PS will have a happier time of things after getting their "unexpected" majority.
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Post by bridgyoldboy on Jan 31, 2022 10:01:15 GMT
Just wondering why the Portuguese polling organisations got this so wrong? All the talk before the election was the dwindling PS lead and the potential for a far right influence in the government only to see PS storm home securing an overall majority which nobody predicted. I note there was a high turnout so perhaps talking up the far right motivated those on the liberal left to get out and vote.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jan 31, 2022 10:40:34 GMT
With 199 seats counted the current scoreline is: PS 107, PPD/PSD 65, CH 10, IL 5, BE 3, CDU (PCP-PEV) 4. Already the "hard left" are set for a severe drubbing, and both PAN (Portugal's Animal Welfare Party) and LIVRE (Portugal's "light green" party) are facing elimination from the Assembly of the [Portuguese] Republic. Furthermore PS are topping the poll in every Portuguese region-even Villa Real and Braganca. YOu mean mainland region. PSD carried Madeira |
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Post by islington on Jan 31, 2022 11:19:04 GMT
Er...
I hesitate to break it to the many PR enthusiasts on this site, who may want to ensure that they are sitting down before they read on, but if the Wikipedia page is accurate the Socialists have won an outright Parliamentary majority on only 41.7% of the popular vote.
Surely it cannot be so.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jan 31, 2022 11:35:48 GMT
Er... I hesitate to break it to the many PR enthusiasts on this site, who may want to ensure that they are sitting down before they read on, but if the Wikipedia page is accurate the Socialists have won an outright Parliamentary majority on only 41.7% of the popular vote. Surely it cannot be so.
Unless you use a national list with no thresholds, that kind of result is always possible where you have 1) a large popular vote lead 2) a fragmented opposition including a large number of parties achieving vote below but close to the threshold 3) small electoral districts. In Braganca for example only three seats are elected and this time the PS were able to win two of them with 40% of the vote (and there are plenty of similar examples - in Portalegra there are only two seats and PS won both of them with less than 50% of the vote) |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jan 31, 2022 11:53:54 GMT
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Post by YL on Jan 31, 2022 12:15:36 GMT
Er... I hesitate to break it to the many PR enthusiasts on this site, who may want to ensure that they are sitting down before they read on, but if the Wikipedia page is accurate the Socialists have won an outright Parliamentary majority on only 41.7% of the popular vote. Surely it cannot be so.
Unless you use a national list with no thresholds, that kind of result is always possible where you have 1) a large popular vote lead 2) a fragmented opposition including a large number of parties achieving vote below but close to the threshold 3) small electoral districts. In Braganca for example only three seats are elected and this time the PS were able to win two of them with 40% of the vote (and there are plenty of similar examples - in Portalegra there are only two seats and PS won both of them with less than 50% of the vote) Indeed the PS did not win 50% of the vote in any district, but won at least 50% of the seats in every district except Braga, Porto and Lisbon, which not co-incidentally are the three largest districts. As well as the fragmented opposition and the distorting effects of having so many districts with only a handful of seats, they also benefitted from the well known big party bias of d'Hondt. E.g. they'd have won one fewer seat in each of Aveiro and Setúbal with Sainte-Laguë (and those are the only two I checked). |
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Post by islington on Jan 31, 2022 12:34:22 GMT
Er... I hesitate to break it to the many PR enthusiasts on this site, who may want to ensure that they are sitting down before they read on, but if the Wikipedia page is accurate the Socialists have won an outright Parliamentary majority on only 41.7% of the popular vote. Surely it cannot be so.
Unless you use a national list with no thresholds, that kind of result is always possible where you have 1) a large popular vote lead 2) a fragmented opposition including a large number of parties achieving vote below but close to the threshold 3) small electoral districts. In Braganca for example only three seats are elected and this time the PS were able to win two of them with 40% of the vote (and there are plenty of similar examples - in Portalegra there are only two seats and PS won both of them with less than 50% of the vote) Well, quite. That's my point really. PR advocates glibly say that seats in Parliament should faithfully reflect proportions of votes cast, as if this were (a) an unchallengeable assumption about what an election is for, and (b) a perfectly straightforward thing to contrive.
In fact, even if we all agreed on (a) (which we don't), there is a big problem with (b) because it's very difficult to achieve a genuinely proportional outcome without a high degree of artificiality that probably wouldn't be acceptable to anyone but a PR diehard.
I accept, of course, before anyone else points it out, that systems like Portugal's are more proportional than FPTP. But they still fall well short of true proportionality. One of my beefs (beeves?) with PR supporters is that they trot out arguments for true proportionality ("No government should have a majority in Parliament without a majority of popular votes" and so forth) when they are actually advocating for a system that is far from guaranteeing the result they claim for it.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jan 31, 2022 13:39:06 GMT
Unless you use a national list with no thresholds, that kind of result is always possible where you have 1) a large popular vote lead 2) a fragmented opposition including a large number of parties achieving vote below but close to the threshold 3) small electoral districts. In Braganca for example only three seats are elected and this time the PS were able to win two of them with 40% of the vote (and there are plenty of similar examples - in Portalegra there are only two seats and PS won both of them with less than 50% of the vote) Well, quite. That's my point really. PR advocates glibly say that seats in Parliament should faithfully reflect proportions of votes cast, as if this were (a) an unchallengeable assumption about what an election is for, and (b) a perfectly straightforward thing to contrive. In fact, even if we all agreed on (a) (which we don't), there is a big problem with (b) because it's very difficult to achieve a genuinely proportional outcome without a high degree of artificiality that probably wouldn't be acceptable to anyone but a PR diehard. I accept, of course, before anyone else points it out, that systems like Portugal's are more proportional than FPTP. But they still fall well short of true proportionality. One of my beefs (beeves?) with PR supporters is that they trot out arguments for true proportionality ("No government should have a majority in Parliament without a majority of popular votes" and so forth) when they are actually advocating for a system that is far from guaranteeing the result they claim for it.
Indeed - I'm sympathetic to PR but one of the strongest arguments against it is the type of people who are usually in favour of it |
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Post by yellowperil on Jan 31, 2022 14:05:08 GMT
Er... I hesitate to break it to the many PR enthusiasts on this site, who may want to ensure that they are sitting down before they read on, but if the Wikipedia page is accurate the Socialists have won an outright Parliamentary majority on only 41.7% of the popular vote. Surely it cannot be so.
Unless you use a national list with no thresholds, that kind of result is always possible where you have 1) a large popular vote lead 2) a fragmented opposition including a large number of parties achieving vote below but close to the threshold 3) small electoral districts. In Braganca for example only three seats are elected and this time the PS were able to win two of them with 40% of the vote (and there are plenty of similar examples - in Portalegra there are only two seats and PS won both of them with less than 50% of the vote) One question one might ask is what would have happened if the Portuguese general election had been fought on strictly FPTP lines. I rather imagine it might have been an absolute landslide for the PS with a small SD rump and most of the smaller parties disappearing into oblivion? |
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Post by johnloony on Jan 31, 2022 14:16:10 GMT
The sort of PR they have in Portugal (with small district magnitude in most places) is a sensible version of PR if you like list systems. It also happens to be approximately the same sort of district magnitude that you would get in STV. The lack of strict proportionality and STV is regarded by STV supporters as being a distinct advantage. The only way that you could get strict proportionality would be to have a national list, either on its own, or as a top up. They only have that sort of thing in weird countries like Israel or Netherlands.
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Post by johnloony on Jan 31, 2022 14:20:30 GMT
Er... I hesitate to break it to the many PR enthusiasts on this site, who may want to ensure that they are sitting down before they read on, but if the Wikipedia page is accurate the Socialists have won an outright Parliamentary majority on only 41.7% of the popular vote. Surely it cannot be so.
If you tell a PR enthusiast that 42% of the votes produces 51% of the votes, that is like telling an elephant that it is bigger than an ant. You’re not exactly “breaking it”; it’s stating the obvious. |
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