Defections in the distant future

[boogieeck]

Have you ever looked around your party and thought to yourself "what is he/she doing in this party"? Who do you have that is a defection waiting to happen?

Now let's be honest, they won't defect out of principle until the reasons for them remaining out of lack of principle are exhausted. When they lose their seat or get deselected or retire.

I shall open the bidding with a long-term prediction. My own MP, Andrew Bowie will defect to a party of the centre many years from now. He will not do so until he loses his seat, and even then if a route back or to the Lords remains, he will not defect. But once those chapters are closed, he will defect out of genuine principle. He is a wet soggy centrist.

I think he might hold this seat for decades, pick up a knighthood, hold ministerial rank or a committee chairmanship, and when he finally goes, may well be elevated to the Lords around about 2050. Then after a year or two, he will defect.

[boogieeck]

[boogieeck]

Previously he objected to Tesco charging a different price for petrol in two supermarkets ten miles apart.

[stb12]

In a Scottish Tory context being a centrist is probably best for electoral prospects don’t you think? I’m not saying Scotland doesn’t have people that are very right wing I don’t believe those stereotypes, but with the SNP being a threat in most places tactical voting from Labour/Lib Dem unionists are really important as well

[J.G.Harston]

Oct 12, 2021 9:21:49 GMT boogieeck said:

There should be a job centre in Aboyne. It was a four-hour bus ride to sign on when I lived in Tarland.

[boogieeck]

This thread however does seek other applicants.

Perhaps Labour?

[The Bishop]

Well if we are talking about MPs, who knows. Quite possibly, it will be someone who seems quite surprising at present.

[bjornhattan]

Oct 12, 2021 10:25:06 GMT boogieeck said:

This thread however does seek other applicants.

Perhaps Labour?

Paul Embery? Not an MP of course, but I can't imagine him staying in Labour forever.

[matureleft]

The obvious ideological Labour defectors left in the Change UK fiasco or in their own personal missions in the last parliament. However one general remark that applies to all - the personal is very important. Some of the Tory defectors 1995-2010 appeared substantially influenced by something in their personal lives. And that we can't predict.

[boogieeck]

Labour could shed members to the left or right. Or to the SNP.

If Lib Dems either do or do not go full Trans rights or accept/deny Brexit, they could shed members once they leave Parliament.

DUP could shed to TUV or UUP

Conservatives can really only go left

This is an effort at an over the horizon thread

[boogieeck]

Oct 12, 2021 10:50:59 GMT matureleft said:

The obvious ideological Labour defectors left in the Change UK fiasco or in their own personal missions in the last parliament. However one general remark that applies to all - the personal is very important. Some of the Tory defectors 1995-2010 appeared substantially influenced by something in their personal lives. And that we can't predict.

Interesting. I am struggling to think of examples*, can you give some?

* other than Bercow and his lefty missus, so maybe BoJo and his tree-hugging air-mile collecting main squeeze.

[bjornhattan]

Oct 12, 2021 11:06:34 GMT boogieeck said:

Labour could shed members to the left or right. Or to the SNP.

If Lib Dems either do or do not go full Trans rights or accept/deny Brexit, they could shed members once they leave Parliament.

DUP could shed to TUV or UUP

Conservatives can really only go left

This is an effort at an over the horizon thread

I think it is quite possible that the Lib Dems could move to the right (at least on economics). Most of the NIMBY commuter types in the "Blue Wall" aren't going to want higher taxes, and if the Greens remain relatively strong then they will likely take left leaning Lib Dems. So it wouldn't surprise me if they became a little more like the German FDP.

I can't imagine someone like Layla Moran sticking around in such a party...

[neilm]

Oct 12, 2021 9:58:33 GMT J.G.Harston said:

Oct 12, 2021 9:21:49 GMT boogieeck said:

There should be a job centre in Aboyne. It was a four-hour bus ride to sign on when I lived in Tarland.

I thought it was one of the 'do it by post' ones?

[The Bishop]

Though many left leaning LibDems stuck around when Clegg was doing pretty much as described above.....

[neilm]

Oct 12, 2021 11:21:36 GMT The Bishop said:

Though many left leaning LibDems stuck around when Clegg was doing pretty much as described above.....

Claiming dole by post?

[The Bishop]

Yes very good, your post got in the way

[matureleft]

Oct 12, 2021 11:11:11 GMT boogieeck said:

Oct 12, 2021 10:50:59 GMT matureleft said:

The obvious ideological Labour defectors left in the Change UK fiasco or in their own personal missions in the last parliament. However one general remark that applies to all - the personal is very important. Some of the Tory defectors 1995-2010 appeared substantially influenced by something in their personal lives. And that we can't predict.

Interesting. I am struggling to think of examples*, can you give some?

* other than Bercow and his lefty missus, so maybe BoJo and his tree-hugging air-mile collecting main squeeze.

Alan Howarth almost certainly? Always wondered about Shaun Woodward.

[𝖭𝖾𝖺𝗍𝗁 𝖶𝖾𝗌𝗍]

Baroness Hoey of Lylehill and Rathlin to the UUP?

[gerrardwinstanley]

Really, Boogie, the examples you have provided for Andrew Bowie are not out of place for a Conservative MP or the Party; rather, they are out of place with the Conservative party that you hope for, one that champions a never-going-to-happen minarchism.

[The Bishop]

Kate Hoey to DUP shurely, or maybe TUV?