Defections in the distant future

[stb12]

In a Scottish Tory context being a centrist is probably best for electoral prospects don’t you think? I’m not saying Scotland doesn’t have people that are very right wing I don’t believe those stereotypes, but with the SNP being a threat in most places tactical voting from Labour/Lib Dem unionists are really important as well

[J.G.Harston]

Oct 12, 2021 9:21:49 GMT @boogieeck said:

There should be a job centre in Aboyne. It was a four-hour bus ride to sign on when I lived in Tarland.

[The Bishop]

Well if we are talking about MPs, who knows. Quite possibly, it will be someone who seems quite surprising at present.

[bjornhattan]

Oct 12, 2021 10:25:06 GMT @boogieeck said:

This thread however does seek other applicants.

Perhaps Labour?

Paul Embery? Not an MP of course, but I can't imagine him staying in Labour forever.

[matureleft]

The obvious ideological Labour defectors left in the Change UK fiasco or in their own personal missions in the last parliament. However one general remark that applies to all - the personal is very important. Some of the Tory defectors 1995-2010 appeared substantially influenced by something in their personal lives. And that we can't predict.

[bjornhattan]

Oct 12, 2021 11:06:34 GMT @boogieeck said:

Labour could shed members to the left or right. Or to the SNP.

If Lib Dems either do or do not go full Trans rights or accept/deny Brexit, they could shed members once they leave Parliament.

DUP could shed to TUV or UUP

Conservatives can really only go left

This is an effort at an over the horizon thread

I think it is quite possible that the Lib Dems could move to the right (at least on economics). Most of the NIMBY commuter types in the "Blue Wall" aren't going to want higher taxes, and if the Greens remain relatively strong then they will likely take left leaning Lib Dems. So it wouldn't surprise me if they became a little more like the German FDP.

I can't imagine someone like Layla Moran sticking around in such a party...

[neilm]

Oct 12, 2021 9:58:33 GMT J.G.Harston said:

Oct 12, 2021 9:21:49 GMT @boogieeck said:

There should be a job centre in Aboyne. It was a four-hour bus ride to sign on when I lived in Tarland.

I thought it was one of the 'do it by post' ones?

[The Bishop]

Though many left leaning LibDems stuck around when Clegg was doing pretty much as described above.....

[neilm]

Oct 12, 2021 11:21:36 GMT The Bishop said:

Though many left leaning LibDems stuck around when Clegg was doing pretty much as described above.....

Claiming dole by post?

[The Bishop]

Yes very good, your post got in the way

[matureleft]

Oct 12, 2021 11:11:11 GMT @boogieeck said:

Oct 12, 2021 10:50:59 GMT matureleft said:

The obvious ideological Labour defectors left in the Change UK fiasco or in their own personal missions in the last parliament. However one general remark that applies to all - the personal is very important. Some of the Tory defectors 1995-2010 appeared substantially influenced by something in their personal lives. And that we can't predict.

Interesting. I am struggling to think of examples*, can you give some?

* other than Bercow and his lefty missus, so maybe BoJo and his tree-hugging air-mile collecting main squeeze.

Alan Howarth almost certainly? Always wondered about Shaun Woodward.

[🏴‍☠️ Neath West 🏴‍☠️]

Baroness Hoey of Lylehill and Rathlin to the UUP?

[gerrardwinstanley]

Really, Boogie, the examples you have provided for Andrew Bowie are not out of place for a Conservative MP or the Party; rather, they are out of place with the Conservative party that you hope for, one that champions a never-going-to-happen minarchism.

[The Bishop]

Kate Hoey to DUP shurely, or maybe TUV?

[johnloony]

UK politics are in a process of transition. The Conservative/Labour duopoly is shifting from a class division to a division based more on age and/or ethnicity. Everybody (and all the main parties) are adjusting to the new reality of Brexit (which used to be a centre-against-extremes duopoly). The world is adjusting to Covid (which of necessity meant high public spending by a Conservative government - a Conservative government). Either Scotland will become independent, or the SNP bubble will burst (in which case Scotland will go back to voting Labour-or-Conservative).

The party system in 20 years time will be very different from what it was 10 years ago - not necessarily in terms of the actual parties, but in terms of where the parties are located (geographically and/or demographically).

Therefore there will be defections or expulsions which are currently unforseeable. One phase of that has already happened in the purge of the Remoaners and saboteurs before the 2019 general election and the final enactment of Brexit.

I’m a bit puzzled about why the thread is asking us to predict things which are inherently unpredictable.

[pl]

Oct 12, 2021 12:49:45 GMT johnloony said:

UK politics are in a process of transition. The Conservative/Labour duopoly is shifting from a class division to a division based more on age and/or ethnicity. Everybody (and all the main parties) are adjusting to the new reality of Brexit (which used to be a centre-against-extremes duopoly). The world is adjusting to Covid (which of necessity meant high public spending by a Conservative government - a Conservative government). Either Scotland will become independent, or the SNP bubble will burst (in which case Scotland will go back to voting Labour-or-Conservative).

The party system in 20 years time will be very different from what it was 10 years ago - not necessarily in terms of the actual parties, but in terms of where the parties are located (geographically and/or demographically).

Therefore there will be defections or expulsions which are currently unforseeable. One phase of that has already happened in the purge of the Remoaners and saboteurs before the 2019 general election and the final enactment of Brexit.

I’m a bit puzzled about why the thread is asking us to predict things which are inherently unpredictable.

Quoted to like the bolded section.

Indeed, people - even experienced commentators - always over-estimate the effects of change in the short-term and under-estimate the effects of change in the long-term.

[J.G.Harston]

Oct 12, 2021 11:21:22 GMT neilm said:

Oct 12, 2021 9:58:33 GMT J.G.Harston said:

There should be a job centre in Aboyne. It was a four-hour bus ride to sign on when I lived in Tarland.

I thought it was one of the 'do it by post' ones?

Yes, I had to trek in once every three months by bus, and inbetween fill in a book and post it off.

There was one day where they phoned to book me in later that day, and I had about two minutes to rush out of the house and catch the last available bus to get in.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Most forecast defections don't happen. Even those politicians who are out of sorts with their political party are usually strongly tied to them emotionally and find it difficult to go over to the other side. Remember that Hartley Shawcross was nicknamed "Sir Shortly Floorcross" in the late 1950s? He didn't. He resigned his seat, let his party membership lapse, and then slowly drifted to the right politically.

[peterl]

I would not be astonished as they seem to move closer and closer if at least one Green MSP joined the SNP in the next 4 or 5 years.

[Tony Otim]

Oct 12, 2021 16:51:12 GMT peterl said:

I would not be astonished as they seem to move closer and closer if at least one Green MSP joined the SNP in the next 4 or 5 years.

I would be astonished and I'm a lot closer to the situation than you.