Prediction Competition - October 2021

[andykernow]

Going early this week .....

Birmingham - Yardley - Lib Dem Hold

Conservative - 6%
Labour - 28%
Lib Dem - 66%

Horsham - Forest - Lib Dem Hold

Green - 24%
Conservative - 20%
Labour - 21%
Lib Dem - 35%

Newark - Rainworth - Ind Gain from Lab

Conservative - 30%
Independent - 36%
Labour - 34%

[Tony Otim]

Birmingham: LD 64.9; Lab 23.5; Con 11.6
Horsham: LD 38.8; Con 27.0; Lab 20.7; Grn 13.5
Newark & Sherwood: Thompson 37.2; Con 32.8; Lab 30.0

[Richard Cromwell]

Yardley East, Birmingham

LAB	45%
LD	42%
CON	13%

Forest, Horsham

CON	50%
LD	23%
LAB	20%
GRN	7%

Rainworth South & Blidworth, Newark & Sherwood

IND	35%
CON	33%
LAB	32%

[agbutler]

Birmingham: LD 41.3; Lab 43.5; Con 15.2
Horsham: LD 31.2; Con 24.4; Lab 22.3; Grn 22.1
Newark & Sherwood: Thompson 35.3; Lab 33.5; Con 31.2

[peterl]

Birmingham: LD 42.5; Lab 38.8; Con 18.7
Horsham: LD 34.8; Grn 24.5; Con 22.2; Lab 18.5
Newark & Sherwood: Thompson 38.0; Lab 32.8; Con 29.2

[greenhert]

Birmingham MBC, Yardley East: Liberal Democrats 48, Labour 41, Conservative 11.
Horsham DC, Forest: Liberal Democrats 42, Conservative 25, Green 17, Labour 16.
Newark & Sherwood DC, Rainworth South & Blidworth: Independent (Thompson) 44, Conservative 31, Labour 25.

[andrewp]

Birmingham, Yardley East LD 59, Lab 34, Con 7
Horsham, Forest LD 44, Con 24, Lab 22, Green 10
Newark and Sherwood. Rainworth South and Blidworth, Ind 40, Con 32, Lab 28

[Robert Waller]

Birmingham: LD 61; Lab 31; Con 8
Horsham: LD 45; Con 33; Lab 13; Grn 9
Newark & Sherwood: Thompson 41; Con 39; Lab 20

[Deleted]

Yardley East (Birmingham): LD 55 Lab 35 Con 10
Forest (Horsham): LD 35 Lab 25 Con 25 Grn 15
Rainworth South & Blidworth (Newark & Sherwood): Ind 37 Lab 33 Con 30

[yellowperil]

Birmingham, Yardley East: Con 9, Lab 43, LD 48.
Horsham, Forest: Con 29, Lab 13, LD 40, GP 18.
Newark & Sherwood, Rainworth S & Blidworth: Con 28, Lab 32, Ind 40.

[rightleaning]

Birmingham, Yardley East LD 56, Lab 36, C 8
Horsham, Forest LD 42, C 25, Lab 22, Gn 11
Newark and Sherwood. Rainworth South and Blidworth, Ind 41, C 30, Lab 29

[Toylyyev]

Birmingham MBC, Yardley East:
Conservative 5, Labour 35, Liberal Democrat 60.

Horsham DC, Forest:
Conservative 25, Labour 25, Liberal Democrat 45, Green 5.

Newark and Sherwood DC, Rainworth South & Blidworth:
Conservative 34, Labour 27, Independent 39.


fast chess pitch with according disclaimer

[iainbhx]

Birmingham MBC, Yardley East: LDm 48 Lab 33 Con 19

Horsham DC, Forest: LDm 42 Con 33 Lab 13 Grn 12

Newark and Sherwood DC, Rainworth South & Blidworth: Ind 39 Con 35 Lab 26

[robbienicoll]

14 entries this week, all on time and correct.

Yardley East, Birmingham: 12 Liberal Democrat hold, with agbutler and Richard Cromwell Labour gain.
Forest, Horsham: 13 Liberal Democrat hold, with Richard Cromwell Conservative gain.
Rainworth South and Blidworth, Newark and Sherwood: 100% Independent gain from Labour, with majorities ranging from 1.8% (agbutler) to 13% (greenhert).

Results available at - docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1e0x8BQuMxWPWJE8xaJ16CT2uQp0SrrOw3UvyFT_sHKI/edit?usp=sharing - good luck to all!

[Deleted]

Looks like nobody came particularly close in Newark then

[yellowperil]

Oct 22, 2021 1:20:52 GMT @europeanlefty said:

Looks like nobody came particularly close in Newark then

Certainly neither Labour nor the Tories did.

[yellowperil]

I did indeed come badly unstuck on the 13th by election of the month and drop from 1st to 4th. However I'm not too upset by that given that the reason for my comeuppance was that I was playing "safe" on the Lib Dem retaining Yardley- as always, I'm inclined to think getting it wrong that way is worth it! Of course we still await news from Horsham (I was in that ward two or three weeks ago, no sign of an election, surprise,surprise),and it may be the same factors will apply there?

[yellowperil]

Indeed, I will have to stop underestimating the Lib Dems where they are well established- my decline continues down to 5th and if next week is as bad as the last two I will struggle to stay in the top 10. So congratulations to Toylyyev for taking over the lead  and we should really celebrate a Daft win for the week ( is that better than an Alien one?)

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

Oct 22, 2021 12:31:51 GMT yellowperil said:

Indeed, I will have to stop underestimating the Lib Dems where they are well established- my decline continues down to 5th and if next week is as bad as the last two I will struggle to stay in the top 10. So congratulations to Toylyyev for taking over the lead  and we should really celebrate a Daft win for the week ( is that better than an Alien one?)

I would say so.

October 21st is obviously October Daft Day as my last weekly win was on April 1st.

Seriously, I think I tend to do best when there are fewer by-elections in a given week, as my predictions are more eratic than most competitors as I don't put so many hours effort into it.

[Tony Otim]

Oct 22, 2021 12:31:51 GMT yellowperil said:

Indeed, I will have to stop underestimating the Lib Dems where they are well established- my decline continues down to 5th and if next week is as bad as the last two I will struggle to stay in the top 10. So congratulations to Toylyyev for taking over the lead  and we should really celebrate a Daft win for the week ( is that better than an Alien one?)

Well, there's rather a lack of Lib Dem candidates next week and certainly no defences or contests where they are obviously in contention, so maybe a recovery for you?