Prediction Competition - October 2021

[robbienicoll]

There appears to be 22 by-elections during October.

- 7 by-elections on 7 October
- 4 on 14 October
- 3 on 21 October
- 8 on 28 October

11 by-elections are for District Councils last contested in 2019
3 are for Unitary Authorities last contested in 2019
3 are for a Metropolitan Council, two of which were last contested in May and one in 2018
2 are for Welsh authorities last contested in 2017
1 is in a London Borough last contested in 2018
1 is in a Scottish authority last contested in 2017
1 is in a County Council last contested in 2017

Conservatives defend 7 of the by-election seats, 5 following the death of the previous councillor and 2 a resignation
Labour defend 6 seats, 3 following the death of the previous councillor and 3 a resignation
Liberal Democrats defend 7 seats, 3 following the death of the previous councillor and 4 a resignation
UKIP defend 1 seat following the death of the previous councillor
Independents defend 1 seat following a resignation

There are 21 Conservative candidates, 19 Labour, 14 Liberal Democrats, 11 Greens, 2 Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition, 1 SNP, 1 Plaid Cymru, 1 Reform UK, 1 Scottish Green, 1 Communist Party of Britain and 1 Bolton for Change along with 11 Independents (including 2 Nottingham Independents and 1 Leigh West Independent) contesting 7 seats
- a total of 84 candidates for 22 seats.

Predictions on this thread at 9.00am on the day of the election.

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

FLINTSHIRE UA; Penyfford
Labour – 34%
RANSOME, Pat - Independent – 27%
SAXON, Steve – Independent – 24%
WAKELAM, Roy Alan - Independent - 15%

NOTTINGHAM UA; St Anns
Labour -74%
Liberal Democrat – 12%
Conservative – 10.6%
Nottingham Independents 1.6%
Green 1.4%
TUSC – 0.4%

NOTTINGHAM UA; Sherwood
Labour – 66%
Conservative – 17%
Liberal Democrat – 13.6%
Nottingham Independents – 1.6%
Green – 1.4%
TUSC – 0.4%

RUSHCLIFFE DC; Musters
Liberal Democrat – 58%
Conservative – 24%
Labour – 18%

SOMERSET CC; Comeytrowe and Trull
Liberal Democrat – 52%
Conservative – 40%
Labour – 8%

SOMERSET WEST & TAUNTON DC; Wilton & Sherford
Liberal Democrat – 65%
Conservative – 32%
Green – 3%

WAVERLEY DC: Cranleigh East
Liberal Democrat – 55%
Conservative – 45%

[Richard Cromwell]

Penyffordd, Flintshire

Steve Saxon	28%
LAB	25%
Pat Ransome	24%
Roy Wakelam	23%

St Ann's, Nottingham

LAB	65%
CON	17%
LD	13%
GRN	4%
Nottingham Independents	1%
TUSC	0%

Sherwood, Nottingham

LAB	70%
CON	11%
LD	9%
GRN	8%
Nottingham Independents	2%
TUSC	0%

Musters, Rushcliffe

LD	45%
CON	32%
LAB	23%

Comeytrowe and Trull, Somerset

CON	52%
LD	43%
LAB	5%

Wilton & Sherford, Somerset West & Taunton

LD	60%
CON	25%
GRN	15%

Cranleigh East, Waverley

LD	52%
CON	48%

[andrewp]

I shall be voting in the 2 Somerset by elections tomorrow. I somehow suspect that ‘ home’ advantage will not help me much! I wonder if any prediction competition competitor has guessed the outcome of a contest that they will be voting in before.

[johnloony]

Oct 6, 2021 15:35:32 GMT andrewp said:

I shall be voting in the 2 Somerset by elections tomorrow. I somehow suspect that ‘ home’ advantage will not help me much! I wonder if any prediction competition competitor has guessed the outcome of a contest that they will be voting in before.

I voted in the Park Hill & Whitgift by-election in May 2021 (which was not included in the prediction competition because of all the other simultaneous kerfuffles) and in the Fairfield by-election in 2005 (which was before the prediction competition started). There was another by-election in Fairfield ward (new boundaries) in 2019 in which I did not vote and for which my prediction was not very accurate.

[peterl]

Penyffordd, Flintshire

Pat Ransome 28%
Steve Saxon 26%
LAB 24%
Roy Wakelam 22%

St Ann's, Nottingham

LAB 58%
CON 17%
LD 15%
GRN 5%
Nottingham Independents 4%
TUSC 1%

Sherwood, Nottingham

LAB 65%
CON 14%
GRN 10%
LD 7%
Nottingham Independents 3%
TUSC 1%

Musters, Rushcliffe

LD 50%
CON 29%
LAB 21%

Comeytrowe and Trull, Somerset

LD 51%
CON 44%
LAB 5%

Wilton & Sherford, Somerset West & Taunton

LD 55%
CON 27%
GRN 18%

Cranleigh East, Waverley

LD 55%
CON 45%

And just for a bit of fun

Croydon Governance Referendum

Yes 51.7%
No 48.3%

Turnout 24.5%

[Deleted]

Penyffordd (Flintshire) ind (S) 27 Ind (R) 26 Lab 25 ind (W) 22
St Ann's (Nottingham): Lab 63 Con 17 LD 10 Grn 5 NI 4 TUSC 1
Sherwood (Nottingham): Lab 63 Con 18 LD 9 Grn 6 NI 3 TUSC 1
Musters (Rushcliffe): LD 49 Lab 26 Con 25
Comeytrowe & Trull (Somerset): LD 47 Con 43 Lab 10
Wilton & Sherwood (W Somerset): LD 40 Con 37 Grn 23
Cranleigh East (Waverley): LD 57 Con 43

[Tony Otim]

Flintshire: Lab 35.1; Saxon 32.2; Ransome 18.2; Wakelam 14.5
Nottingham St Anns: Lab 71.2; Con 11.1; LD 9.8; Nott Ind 3.7; Grn 3.4; TUSC 0.8
Nottingham Sherwood: Lab 63.9; Con 17.0; LD 11.1; Nott Ind 4.2; Grn 2.7; TUSC 1.1
Rushcliffe: LD 53.9; Con 28.8; Lab 17.3
Somerset: LD 57.2; Con 37.0; Lab 5.8
Somerset West & Taunton: LD 56.0; Con 27.7; Grn 16.3
Waverley: LD 57.2; Con 42.8

[andrewp]

Flintshire, Penyfford. Lab 34, Ransome 30, Saxon 18. Wakelam 18
Nottingham, St Anns Lab 62, LD 12, Green 12, Con 9, Not Ind 4, TUSC 1
Nottingham, Sherwood, Lab 63, Con 15, LD 11, Green 6, Not Ind 4, TUSC 1
Rushcliffe, MuSters. LD 53, Con 26, Lab 21
Somerset, Comeytrowe and Trull. LD 64, Con 30, Lab 6
Somerset West, Wilton and Sherford. LD 57, Con 35, Green 8
Waverley, Cranleigh East LD 58, Con 42

[greenhert]

Flintshire UA, Penyffordd: Labour 33, Independent (Ransome) 25, Independent (Saxon) 22, Independent (Wakelam) 20.
Nottingham UA, St Ann's: Labour 67, Conservative 11, Green 10.5, Liberal Democrats 5.5, Nottingham Independents 4, TUSC 2.
Nottingham UA, Sherwood: Labour 60, Conservative 17, Green 12, Liberal Democrats 7, Nottingham Independents 3, TUSC 1.
Rushcliffe BC, Musters: Liberal Democrats 50, Conservative 27, Labour 23.
Somerset CC, Comeytrowe & Trull: Liberal Democrats 50, Conservative 41, Labour 9.
Somerset West & Taunton DC, Wilton & Sherwood: Liberal Democrats 50, Conservative 35, Green 15.
Waverley DC, Cranleigh East: Liberal Democrats 60, Conservative 40.

[Robert Waller]

Flintshire, Penyfford. Lab 35, Ransome 25, Saxon 20. Wakelam 20
Nottingham, St Anns Lab 60, LD 11, Green 10, Con 10, Not Ind 8, TUSC 1
Nottingham, Sherwood, Lab 60, Con 13, LD 9, Green 9, Not Ind 8, TUSC 1
Rushcliffe, MuSters. LD 62, Con 23, Lab 15
Somerset, Comeytrowe and Trull. LD 59, Con 37, Lab 4
Somerset West, Wilton and Sherford. LD 60, Con 30, Green 10
Waverley, Cranleigh East LD 60, Con 40

[agbutler]

Flintshire, Penyfford. Lab 40, Ransome 27, Saxon 20. Wakelam 13
Nottingham, St Anns Lab 75, Green 9, Con 8, LD 4, Not Ind 3, TUSC 1
Nottingham, Sherwood, Lab 73, Con 10, Green 9, LD 5, Not Ind 2, TUSC 1
Rushcliffe, Musters. LD 55, Con 28, Lab 17
Somerset, Comeytrowe and Trull. LD 53, Con 37, Lab 10
Somerset West, Wilton and Sherford. LD 49, Con 29, Green 22
Waverley, Cranleigh East LD 57, Con 43

[Toylyyev]

Flintshire UA, Penyffordd:
Labour 31.9, Independent Ransome 32, Independent Saxon 21.1, Independent Wakelam 15.

Nottingham UA, St Ann's:
Conservative 9, Labour 61, Liberal Democrat 9, Green 5, TUSC 2.5, Nottingham Independents 13.5.
Sherwood:
Conservative 8, Labour 52, Liberal Democrat 3, Green 5.5, TUSC 2.5, Nottingham Independents 29.

Rushcliffe DC, Musters:
Conservative 21, Labour 26, Liberal Democrat 53.

Somerset CC, Comeytrowe and Trull:
Conservative 44, Labour 3, Liberal Democrat 53.

Somerset West and Taunton DC, Wilton and Sherford:
Conservative 31.5, Liberal Democrat 58, Green 10.5.

Waverley DC, Cranleigh East:
Conservative 39.5, Liberal Democrat 60.5.

[yellowperil]

Flintshire, Penyffordd: Lab 32, Ind Ransome 30, Ind Saxon 28, Ind Wakelam 10.
Nottingham, St Ann's: Con 10, Lab 60, LD 6, GP 10, NI 12, TUSC 2.
Nottingham, Sherwood: Con 11, Lab 60,LD 5, GP 9, NI 14, TUSC 1.
Rushcliffe, Musters: Con 29, Lab 21,LD 50. 
Somerset, Comeytrowe & Trill:Con 38, Lab 4, LD 58.
West Somerset & Taunton, Wilton & Sherwood: Con 35, LD 55, GP 10.
Waverley, Cranleigh East: Con 40.5, LD 59.5.

[andykernow]

Flintshire - Penyfford - Lab Gain from Ind

Lab - 38%
Ind R - 16%
Ind S - 32%
Ind W - 14%

Nottingham - St Anns - Lab Hold

TUSC - 2%
Green - 11%
Lib Dem - 4%
Labour - 64%
Notts Ind - 9%
Conservative - 10%

Nottingham - Sherwood - Lab Hold

Notts Ind - 12%
Labour - 60%
Conservative - 13%
Lib Dem - 8%
Green - 5%
TUSC - 2%

Rushcliffe - LibDem Hold

Labour - 15%
Conservative - 38%
Lib Dem - 47%

Somerset - Comeytrowe - LibDem Hold

Conservative - 42%
Lib Dem - 48%
Labour - 10%

Somerset West & Taunton - Wilton - LibDem Hold

Lib Dem - 50%
Conservative - 38%
Green - 12%

Waverley - LibDem Hold

Conservative - 48%
Lib Dem - 52%

[rightleaning]

Flintshire, Penyfford. Lab 32, Ransome 29, Saxon 20, Wakelam 19
Nottingham, St Anns Lab 62, C 13, Gn 10, LD 8, Not Ind 6, TUSC 1
Nottingham, Sherwood, Lab 58, C 15, LD 10, Gn 10, Not Ind 6, TUSC 1
Rushcliffe, Musters. LD 55, C 30, Lab 15
Somerset, Comeytrowe and Trull. LD 54, C 41, Lab 5
Somerset West, Wilton and Sherford. LD 58, C 34, Gn 8
Waverley, Cranleigh East LD 58, C 42

[iainbhx]

Flintshire UA, Penyfford: Lab 34 Ind Ransome 32 Ind Wakelam 22 Ind Saxon 12
Nottingham UA, St Ann's : Lab 63 Grn 14 LDm 9 Con 8 Nottingham Ind 4.5 TUSC 1.5
Nottingham UA, Sherwood : Lab 55 Con 18 Nott Ind 12 LDm 8 Grn 6 TUSC 1
Rushcliffe DC, Musters : LDm 51 Con 29 Lab 20
Somerset CC, Corneytrow & Trull: LDm 48 Con 46 Lab 6
Somerset West & Taunton DC, Wilton & Sherford: LDm 54 Con 36 Grn 10
Waverley DC, Cranleigh E: Con 50.5 LDm 49.5

[robbienicoll]

14 entries this week, all on time and correct.

Penyfford, Flintshire: 10 Labour gain from New Independent, with peterl and Toylyyev Independent (Ransome) win and European Lefty and Richard Cromwell Independent (Saxon) win.
St Anns, Nottingham: 100% Labour hold, with majorities ranging from 41% (peterl) to 66% (agbutler).
Sherwood, Nottingham: 100% Labour hold, with majorities ranging from 23% (Toylyyev) to 63% (agbutler).
Musters, Rushcliffe: 100% Lib Dem hold, with majorities ranging from 9% (andykernow) to 39% (Robert Waller).
Comeytrowe and Trull, Somerset: 13 Lib Dem hold, with Richard Cromwell Conservative gain.
Wilton and Sherford, Somerset West and Taunton: 100% Liberal Democrat hold, with majorities ranging from 3% (European Lefty) to 35% (Richard Cromwell).
Cranleigh East, Waverley: 13 Liberal Democrat hold, with Iainbhx Conservative gain.

Results are available at - docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/133OIjlg8x5RPYa8Xkr50Mm0yoB86daKYRg0Nzu4RDaA/edit?usp=sharing - good luck to all!

[Robert Waller]

Congratulations are due to yellowperil for winning the week - hope he's glad last month's misfortune had not dissuaded him from entering!

Also to Toylyyev for second place largely through reading Nottingham the best, and to andrewp third overall and showing convincing local knowledge of Somerset electoral behaviour!

[yellowperil]

Oct 7, 2021 23:56:50 GMT Robert Waller said:

Congratulations are due to yellowperil for winning the week - hope he's glad last month's misfortune had not dissuaded him from entering!

Also to Toylyyev for second place largely through reading Nottingham the best, and to andrewp third overall and showing convincing local knowledge of Somerset electoral behaviour!

Thanks, Robert- so there's still some life in us old'uns yet, when we remember not to invent candidates who aren't standing...  All things considered a very satisfactory week, so comeuppance next week I guess.