Prediction Competition - October 2021

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

A mixed bag from me that was. Best prediction in Flintshire and worst in Nottingham x2.

Onwards to next week then.

FALKIRK UA; Falkirk South
SNP – 35%
Conservative – 33%
Labour – 27%
Green – 5%
SNP after transfers

HARROW LBC; Pinner South
Conservative – 56%
Labour – 25.5%
Liberal Democrat – 14.5%
Green – 4%

SURREY HEATH DC; Frimley Green
Liberal Democrat – 53%
Conservative – 37
Labour – 10%

WIGAN MBC; Leigh West
Labour – 55%
Conservative - 26%
Leigh West Independent – 15%
Liberal Democrat – 4%

[andrewp]

I’m slightly relieved to have ‘won’ the 2 contests for the areas which I live in!

I always thought it likely that the District ward would be slightly closer than the County division despite the most recent result in both, due to the different 2017/2019 baselines. Around here 2017 was very much a Tory high water mark and 2019 was very much a Lib Dem high water mark, and now we are somewhere between the two. The district ward is one of the slightly better Parts of the county division for the Conservatives.

[andrewp]

Continuing something I started last week, and in terms of good night/ bad night for the big parties against the average of our 14 prediction competition entries, this week was a much of a muchness week on balance.

Conservative

Nottingham St Ann’s +0.6% compared to average prediction
Nottingham Sherwood -1.1%
Ruschcliffe -1.8%
Somerset -10.6%
Somerset West and Taunton +4.2%
Waverley -0.3%

Average -1.5%

Labour

Flintshire +5.1%
Nottingham St Ann’s +0.8%
Nottingham, Sherwood -14.3%
Ruschcliffe +8.8%
Somerset -3%

Average -0.5%

Lib Dem

Nottingham St Ann’s -6”7%
Nottingham Sherwood -5.7%
Rushcliffe -7%
Somerset +13.6%
Somerset West and Taunton +2.1%
Waverley +0.3%

Average -0.6%

[andykernow]

Falkirk - Falkirk South - SNP gain from Lab on Transfers

Green - 11%
Labour - 24%
Conservative - 25%
Scottish national Party - 40%

Harlow - Pinner South - Con Hold

Conservative - 48%
Lib Dem - 14%
Green - 17%
Labour - 21%

Surrey Heath - Frimley - Lib Dem Hold

Conservative - 30%
Lib Dem - 52%
Labour - 18%

Wigan - Leigh West - Labour Hold

Labour - 49%
Conservative - 25%
Leigh West Independent - 21%
Lib Dem - 5%

[Richard Cromwell]

Falkirk South, Falkirk

CON	38%
SNP	31%	Win On Transfers
LAB	26%
GRN	5%

Pinner South, Harrow

CON	45%
LAB	40%
LD	12%
GRN	3%

Frimley Green, Surrey

CON	47%
LD	41%
LAB	12%

Leigh West, Wigan

LAB	46%
CON	30%
IND	19%
LD	5%

[greenhert]

Falkirk UA, Falkirk South: SNP 42, Conservative 32, Labour 20, Green 6.
Harrow LBC, Pinner South: Conservative 61, Labour 22, Liberal Democrats 13, Green 4.
Surrey CC, Frimley Green: Liberal Democrats 56, Conservative 38, Labour 6.
Wigan MBC, Leigh West: Labour 45, Leigh West Independent 32, Conservative 18, Liberal Democrats 5.

[Tony Otim]

Falkirk: SNP 38.1; Con 31.1; Lab 24.8; Grn 6.0 (SNP win)
Harrow: Con 58.7; Lab 23.1; LD 12.5; Grn 5.7
Surrey Heath: LD 47.0; Con 43.8; Lab 9.2
Wigan: Lab 48.5; Con 27.6; Leigh West Ind 19.5; LD 4.4

[andrewp]

Falkirk. Falkirk South SNP 41, Con 28, Lab 25, Green 6. SNP win
Harrow. Pinner South, Con 56, Lab 28, LD 10. Green 6
Surrey Heath, Frimley Green. LD 52, Con 42, Lab 6
Wigan. Leigh West. Lab 56, Con 22, LWind 18, LD 4.

[peterl]

Falkirk UA, Falkirk South: SNP 45, Conservative 29, Labour 22, Green 4 (SNP win).
Harrow LBC, Pinner South: Conservative 55, Labour 25, Liberal Democrats 15, Green 5.
Surrey CC, Frimley Green: Liberal Democrats 60, Conservative 35, Labour 5.
Wigan MBC, Leigh West: Labour 43, Leigh West Independent 33, Conservative 15, Liberal Democrats 9.

[Robert Waller]

Falkirk. Falkirk South SNP 39, Con 33, Lab 23, Green 5. SNP win
Harrow. Pinner South, Con 52, Lab 24, LD 16, Green 8
Surrey Heath, Frimley Green. LD 53, Con 42, Lab 5
Wigan. Leigh West. Lab 50, Con 24, LWInd 20, LD 6.

[Toylyyev]

Falkirk UA, Falkirk South:
Conservative 33, Labour 25.2, Green 5.5, SNP 36.3. SNP win on transfers.

Harrow LBC, Pinner South:
Conservative 49, Labour 29, Liberal Democrat 15, Green 7.

Surrey Heath DC, Frimley Green:
Conservative 38, Labour 7, Liberal Democrat 55.

Wigan MBC, Leigh West:
Conservative 19, Labour 55, Liberal Democrat 8.5, Leigh West Independent (Leigh and Atherton Independents) 17.5.

[yellowperil]

Falkirk, South: Con 30, Lab 25, SGP 5, SNP 40. SNP win.
Harrow, Pinner S: Con 48, Lab 27, LD 20, GP 5.
Surrey Heath, Frimley Green: Con 44, Lab 6. LD 50.
Wigan, Leigh W: Con 19, Lab 50, LD 4, LWI 27.

[rightleaning]

Falkirk UA, Falkirk South: SNP 40, C 33, Lab 18, Gn 9.
Harrow LBC, Pinner South: C 54, Lab 24, LD 15, Gn 7.
Surrey CC, Frimley Green: LD 58, C 37, Lab 5.
Wigan MBC, Leigh West: Lab 43, Ind 31, C 21, LD 5.

[agbutler]

Falkirk. Falkirk South SNP 35, Con 30, Lab 25, Green 10. SNP win
Harrow. Pinner South, Con 48, Lab 30, LD 13, Green 9
Surrey Heath, Frimley Green. LD 56, Con 32, Lab 12
Wigan. Leigh West. Lab 54, Con 20, LWInd 18, LD 8

[iainbhx]

Falkirk UA, Falkirk South: SNP 37, Con 31, Lab 25, Green 7. SNP win on transfers
Harrow LBC, Pinner South: Con 49 Lab 28 LDm 13 Green 10
Surrey Heath DC, Frimley Green: LDm 49 Con 43 Lab 8
Wigan MBC, Leigh West: Lab 44 Con 26 LDm 18 Ind 12.

[Deleted]

Falkirk South (Falkirk): SNP 35 Con 30 Lab 30 Grn 5 SNP HOLD
Pinner South (Harrow): Con 50 Lab 32 LD 13 Grn 5
Frimley Green (Surrey Heath): LD 55 Con 42 Lab 3
Leigh West (Wigan): Lab 43 Con 27 Ind 23 LD 7

[robbienicoll]

Full house of 14 entries for this week, all correct but European Lefty receiving 15x4 faults for posting an hour and a half late.

Falkirk South, Falkirk: 100% SNP ultimate winner after transfers, 13 have the SNP ahead on first preferences with Richard Cromwell Conservatives ahead.
Pinner South, Harrow: 100% Conservative hold, with majorities ranging from 5% (Richard Cromwell) to 39% (Greenhert).
Frimley Green, Surrey Heath: 13 Liberal Democrat hold, with Richard Cromwell Conservatives gain.
Leigh West, Wigan: 100% Labour hold, with majorities ranging from 10% (peterl) to 36% (Toylyyev).

Results available at - docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1GTo7OHqUnKfTxrT1CrrhveZagmIxMsBqZ5v8qzq1Buw/edit?usp=sharing - good luck to all (and it's been quite a good week so far!)

[Tony Otim]

Congratulations to Robert Waller for the week and yellowperil who continues to lead the month...

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

After a decent week, here are next weeks predictions.

BIRMINGHAM MBC; Yardley East
Liberal Democrat = 65%
Labour = 30%
Conservative = 5%

HORSHAM DC; Forest
Liberal Democrat = 40%
Conservative = 30%
Labour = 22%
Green = 8%

NEWARK & SHERWOOD DC; Rainworth South & Blidworth (Lab died)
Independent = 42.5%
Labour = 35%
Conservative = 22.5%

[yellowperil]

Oct 15, 2021 11:48:09 GMT Tony Otim said:

Congratulations to Robert Waller for the week and yellowperil who continues to lead the month...

Congratulations due for Robert for the week, certainly. I had a pretty indifferent week which somehow finished with me just hanging in there. I feel if this was a track race my role has been to set the early pace, and there looks like a whole lot of you poised to surge past on the next lap. Point may come where I just step off the track....