I’m slightly relieved to have ‘won’ the 2 contests for the areas which I live in!
I always thought it likely that the District ward would be slightly closer than the County division despite the most recent result in both, due to the different 2017/2019 baselines. Around here 2017 was very much a Tory high water mark and 2019 was very much a Lib Dem high water mark, and now we are somewhere between the two. The district ward is one of the slightly better Parts of the county division for the Conservatives.
Continuing something I started last week, and in terms of good night/ bad night for the big parties against the average of our 14 prediction competition entries, this week was a much of a muchness week on balance.
Nottingham St Ann’s +0.6% compared to average prediction Nottingham Sherwood -1.1% Ruschcliffe -1.8% Somerset -10.6% Somerset West and Taunton +4.2% Waverley -0.3%
Post by Richard Cromwell on Oct 13, 2021 10:13:45 GMT
Falkirk South, Falkirk
Win On Transfers
Pinner South, Harrow
Frimley Green, Surrey
Leigh West, Wigan
"The equal right of all men to the use of land is as clear as their equal right to breathe the air — it is a right proclaimed by the fact of their existence. For we cannot suppose that some men have a right to be in this world, and others no right." - Henry George
Falkirk UA, Falkirk South: SNP 42, Conservative 32, Labour 20, Green 6. Harrow LBC, Pinner South: Conservative 61, Labour 22, Liberal Democrats 13, Green 4. Surrey CC, Frimley Green: Liberal Democrats 56, Conservative 38, Labour 6. Wigan MBC, Leigh West: Labour 45, Leigh West Independent 32, Conservative 18, Liberal Democrats 5.
Falkirk. Falkirk South SNP 41, Con 28, Lab 25, Green 6. SNP win Harrow. Pinner South, Con 56, Lab 28, LD 10. Green 6 Surrey Heath, Frimley Green. LD 52, Con 42, Lab 6 Wigan. Leigh West. Lab 56, Con 22, LWind 18, LD 4.
Falkirk UA, Falkirk South: SNP 45, Conservative 29, Labour 22, Green 4 (SNP win). Harrow LBC, Pinner South: Conservative 55, Labour 25, Liberal Democrats 15, Green 5. Surrey CC, Frimley Green: Liberal Democrats 60, Conservative 35, Labour 5. Wigan MBC, Leigh West: Labour 43, Leigh West Independent 33, Conservative 15, Liberal Democrats 9.
“The most dangerous man to any government is the man who is able to think things out for himself, without regard to the prevailing superstitions and taboos. Almost inevitably he comes to the conclusion that the government he lives under is dishonest, insane, and intolerable.” H. L. Mencken
Post by Robert Waller on Oct 13, 2021 23:32:24 GMT
Falkirk. Falkirk South SNP 39, Con 33, Lab 23, Green 5. SNP win Harrow. Pinner South, Con 52, Lab 24, LD 16, Green 8 Surrey Heath, Frimley Green. LD 53, Con 42, Lab 5 Wigan. Leigh West. Lab 50, Con 24, LWInd 20, LD 6.
Falkirk UA, Falkirk South: Conservative 33, Labour 25.2, Green 5.5, SNP 36.3. SNP win on transfers.
Harrow LBC, Pinner South: Conservative 49, Labour 29, Liberal Democrat 15, Green 7.
Surrey Heath DC, Frimley Green: Conservative 38, Labour 7, Liberal Democrat 55.
Wigan MBC, Leigh West: Conservative 19, Labour 55, Liberal Democrat 8.5, Leigh West Independent (Leigh and Atherton Independents) 17.5.
Forum administrators and moderators reserve the right, in their sole discretion, to delete or modify forum posts, revoke membership to the forum, block access to the forum, modify Your account profile, or modify any User Content..
To clarify, You maintain full ownership of all your User Content posted to ProBoards.
Falkirk. Falkirk South SNP 35, Con 30, Lab 25, Green 10. SNP win Harrow. Pinner South, Con 48, Lab 30, LD 13, Green 9 Surrey Heath, Frimley Green. LD 56, Con 32, Lab 12 Wigan. Leigh West. Lab 54, Con 20, LWInd 18, LD 8
Post by European Lefty on Oct 14, 2021 9:35:26 GMT
Falkirk South (Falkirk): SNP 35 Con 30 Lab 30 Grn 5 SNP HOLD Pinner South (Harrow): Con 50 Lab 32 LD 13 Grn 5 Frimley Green (Surrey Heath): LD 55 Con 42 Lab 3 Leigh West (Wigan): Lab 43 Con 27 Ind 23 LD 7
"Someone's got his finger on the button in some room no one can convince me we aren't gluttons for our doom" - Indigo Girls, Prince of Darkness
Full house of 14 entries for this week, all correct but European Lefty receiving 15x4 faults for posting an hour and a half late.
Falkirk South, Falkirk: 100% SNP ultimate winner after transfers, 13 have the SNP ahead on first preferences with Richard Cromwell Conservatives ahead. Pinner South, Harrow: 100% Conservative hold, with majorities ranging from 5% (Richard Cromwell) to 39% (Greenhert). Frimley Green, Surrey Heath: 13 Liberal Democrat hold, with Richard Cromwell Conservatives gain. Leigh West, Wigan: 100% Labour hold, with majorities ranging from 10% (peterl) to 36% (Toylyyev).
Congratulations due for Robert for the week, certainly. I had a pretty indifferent week which somehow finished with me just hanging in there. I feel if this was a track race my role has been to set the early pace, and there looks like a whole lot of you poised to surge past on the next lap. Point may come where I just step off the track....