Ashcroft Megapoll March 2013

[Andrew_S]

I assume Ashcroft has interviewed at least 1,000 people in each constituency in order for the findings to be valid.

[Deleted]

Sept 15, 2013 15:14:16 GMT @ianrobo said:

stop referring back because it is not relevant when the situation is massively different. Do you really believe for example Labour will get lower than 2010 or LD's will get as high ?

Labour will have to bridge some pretty big gaps in image and credibility, Ian, it's not just about the "massive" (4 or 5 points) lead in some polls. Look at YouGov a little deeper and see how Labour still has a credibility problem on the economy and Ed Miliband has a huge personal credibility problem on suitability for the role of Prime Minister. Both of which, incidentally, exactly the same issues Kinnock couldn't resolve when it mattered.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

The Conservatives had a lead on 'best party to manage the economy' in 1997.

[Deleted]

Indeed David and those thinking that 1992 or any other election has any impact here are simply whistling in the wind.

This is the first election in most people's lifetimes that a full 5 year coalition will be judged. It seems a lot of experienced commentators forget this and forget that most of the marginals Labour needs to win are not in the SE where it is difficult for us outside of London but in areas far more favourable for us and where there are a lot of LD supporters willing to look at us.

All the polls since May 2010 have shown an immediate swing from Ld to Labour and that gap only got wider, it is a dream by LD's or even the tories to imagine that those people and especially those in Tory/Lab marginals will go back to LD.

[oldwarhorse]

We have now spoken to 2000 voters in Stockton South across all wards since early July and Ashcroft's topline for the constituency is more or less as we have found. Labour on circa 45% share.

Sent from my GT-I9300 using proboards

[erlend]

Looking from outside you are very likely in for 2015 if you then beat 40%. So a little leeway for Tory recovery. 35% and probably not. I suspect that the story I heard that one of your Tory cllrs in their strongest patch has gone UKIP must be music to your ears.

[Tony Otim]

I'd think that with 35% Labour would still be favourites to take the seat. I'd imagine at the moment the Conservative vote would be at least 4% down (mainly to UKIP).

[erlend]

To win with 35% others need to be on 30%. Do you really think UKIP LD Green etc would be on 30%?

[Tony Otim]

If the GE were held now I could quite easily see UKIP getting c.20%. Perhaps, 6 or 7% for your lot, 1 or 2 for the BNP, maybe an independant...

But a lot can change in 18 months.

I guess I approached it the other way to you - currently, if Labour were shedding votes here rather than picking them up, I'd kind of assume that most were going to UKIP. That being the case, I'd also guess that the Conservatives would be shedding at least as many to UKIP, with probably some to Labour as well. Hence, on 35% Labour would probably still win.

[erlend]

I probably don't disagree about the LD vote. But I think you overstate the UKIP on. I can't reall see them pick that 20% in a GE. Perhaps 12% if lucky. And 3-4% for the rest Grand total ca 24% so perhaps 38% to win.

[Deleted]

I think in some areas they could pick up 20% and it is those areas where they could put serious damage on the Tories. There will not be many but the likes of Boston are obvious contenders.

[erlend]

On the whole it would not be in the normal marginals where the other parties exist solidly. I would guess in the example of Boston with both UKIP and Bypassers having done well recently that Tory infrastructure is weak and other parties' negligible.

[Deleted]

Kevin Maguire kevin_Maguire
Should've worken up and smelled that coffee, david_Cameron. Tonight's @lordashcroft mega poll v bad for you(& @lyntonkcrosby)

[carlton43]

Jan 3, 2014 13:44:57 GMT @ianrobo said:

Kevin Maguire kevin_Maguire
Should've worken up and smelled that coffee, david_Cameron. Tonight's @lordashcroft mega poll v bad for you(& @lyntonkcrosby)

Another cliche too far Ian. Why not say what you think rather than parrot what others think.

[Deleted]

eh ? How can I comment on a poll we have not seen yet ?

[Deleted]

Jan 3, 2014 15:48:51 GMT @ianrobo said:

eh ? How can I comment on a poll we have not seen yet ?

You can't, but it doesn't seem to prevent you from littering this forum with yet another Twitter link straight from the Daily Mirror's Associate Editor.

[Deleted]

I would have thought, maybe totally wrong, on an election forum that people would be interested in a new poll, strange that.

[Pete Whitehead]

I'm sure we would all be interested in the figures from the poll. Perhaps not so much to a bunch of pre-release spin from some tedious partisan wanker*

*that's a reference to Kevin Maguire rather than you..

on second thoughts..

[Deleted]

Jan 3, 2014 17:27:59 GMT @ianrobo said:

I would have thought, maybe totally wrong, on an election forum that people would be interested in a new poll, strange that.

Me, interested in polls? I'm fascinated in polls. Ask anyone on this forum and they'll tell you. I was even asked to preside over the VUKPOTY award last month. Did you vote boogieeck or Richard? Which one gives you the least grief?

The twitter link was unnecessary - we all knew what Mr. Maguire's take on it would be right from the outset.

[Deleted]

of course but it is context on the annoucement which according to him is bad for the Tories