Ashcroft Megapoll March 2013

[Pimpernal]

22,000 interviewed online.
Not sure of the headline figures but one question gave the following response to what sort of govt people preferred:
39% Lab Majority
30% Con maj
31% either party in coalition with LDs

[Pimpernal]

Con 31
Lab 40
LD 9
UKIP 12

Labour lead among women = 14

15% of 2010 Tories voting UKIP

UKIP on 19% among over 65's

[Deleted]

keep ramping up the immigration fear amongst the older population is a vote winner.

[Pimpernal]

Mar 8, 2013 8:28:57 GMT @ianrobo said:

keep ramping up the immigration fear amongst the older population is a vote winner.

Sorry - was this the first thread you found to get that irrelevant waffle burst off your chest in?

[Deleted]

it is the right one given the large support you are gaining from the older population and what I heard from a UKIP organiser from the West Mids last Friday.

His story was one where one older person came to hims and claimed the BEdroom tax was forcing older people out to be replaced by immigrants. Instead of saying this was total nonsense he agreed with her ...

[Deleted]

I wonder if or when Lord Ashcroft is going to start doing his polls of marginal constituencies, perhaps with regional breakdowns? Now wouldn't be a sensible time - in a year to 18 months, perhaps? And hopefully people without internet will be part of those surveyed. Such polls would be interesting to compare with those from the last Parliament and how accurate they were.
I'm not sure I can believe how many people apparently want coalition government.

[john07]

Mar 8, 2013 15:57:03 GMT swanarcadian said:

I wonder if or when Lord Ashcroft is going to start doing his polls of marginal constituencies, perhaps with regional breakdowns? Now wouldn't be a sensible time - in a year to 18 months, perhaps? And hopefully people without internet will be part of those surveyed. Such polls would be interesting to compare with those from the last Parliament and how accurate they were.
I'm not sure I can believe how many people apparently want coalition government.

Clearly most Lib Dems will want coalition government as their prospect of governing alone are zero.

Secondly there may be supporters of minor parties who would prefer coalition to overall power by Labour or Conservative.

Finally there may be a fair few (leftish) Conservative and (right wing) Labour supporters who might prefer coalition government for whatever reason.

I can see that adding up to 30%+.

[Deleted]

Mar 8, 2013 16:01:20 GMT john07 said:

Finally there may be a fair few (leftish) Conservative and (right wing) Labour supporters who might prefer coalition government for whatever reason.

And probably not just 'right wing' Labour supporters for that matter. There must be a fair few Labour-inclined people on the liberal-left who would welcome more LibDem influence on constitutional reform, civil liberties, foreign policy and so forth. My gut instinct is that a Labour-LibDem coalition would generally have a more 'progressive' aesthetic than a Labour majority.

[Deleted]

I think that the likelihood of a Lab-Lib Dem coalition is not very high at the moment. It would be hugely unpopular amongst Labour Party members (as i suppose the current colaition is amongst Tory Party members).

The Labour leadership would be put under considerable pressure not to go into coalition with the Lib Dems, especially with Clegg as leader.

[The Bishop]

Oh there is no doubt that if Clegg stays, the likelihood of any coalition is zilch. I am sure the LibDems know this too......

[Deleted]

Clegg like Brown would go and say Farron as leader ?

I actually think there would be few red lines for either

[Pimpernal]

I understand an early Lib demand has been the removal of ianrobo from all public forums and a guarantee that he will never be allowed to speak ontheir behalf.

[Deleted]

there is a marginal poll out ...

Mike Smithson @msmithsonpb

LDs would lose 17 to CON and 13 to LAB according to Ashcroft marginals poll

Nicholas Watt @nicholaswatt

Lord Ashcroft: Lab stands to gain 93 seats from Con in marginal seats #victory2015

The Lab losses from LD's would surprise no one but the losses to the Tories, just not sure on that, if it appears to Labour voters in 2015 that Labour are in a strong position I think they will still vote tactically where needed.

[Deleted]

Nicholas Watt @nicholaswatt

Lord Ashcroft: marginal poll gives Lab maj of 84. Lab gain 109, Cons lose 75 #victory2015

[David Ashforth]

Mar 9, 2013 11:26:34 GMT @ianrobo said:

there is a marginal poll out ...

lordashcroftpolls.com/2013/03/marginal-territory-the-seats-that-will-decide-the-next-election/#more-2052

[Deleted]

Mike Smithson @msmithsonpb
Every single Lord Ashcroft poll that's been tested against real results since #GE2010 has overstated the eventual Tory share

these figures are bad for the Tories, maybe mid term slump but not sure of that at al because little will change in the next 24 months really in the general landscape.

OF course there are always the shocks and surprises but usually go against the government of the time.

[Deleted]

I presume this may have been a mega poll

www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2013/jun/07/david-cameron-tory-party-poll

Overall, 37% of those questioned said they would vote Labour, 27% Conservative, 15% the UK Independence party and 9% Liberal Democrat, giving Ed Miliband's party a comfortable 10-point advantage, though Ashcroft noted that this was "not much of a score for an opposition party expecting to sweep to power in 23 months' time".

the lead is that for the first time Cameron is less popular than his party and this may move internal tory dynamics.

[Deleted]

Cameron and the tories are within MOE. EdM on the other hand ...

[Deleted]

Mar 8, 2013 8:28:57 GMT @ianrobo said:

keep ramping up the immigration fear amongst the older population is a vote winner.

LOL.

The Opposition proving itself unable to find its own policies, never mind apologies, is the exact reason for those poll figures.

Put to the real world, outside this forum and Twitter, the nation is deeply unimpressed by the dork and his recession denying cohort.

[Deleted]

Another Megapoll and the headlineis that Boris is liked but not going to help his party that much

politics.co.uk/news/2013/06/28/boris-leadership-hopes-hammered-by-new-poll

imagine other results will leak out over time