Ashcroft Megapoll March 2013

[Deleted]

41% of UKIP supporters think it's important UK is "a leading voice in the EU"

talk about a mixed message or more like that 41% will disappear when the GE is on ...

[Deleted]

seems the Unite findings are just the first from the Ashcroft Megapoll of 15,700 people ..

the Unite sample was 700

Mike Smithson @msmithsonpb
To find 712 Unite members @lordashcroft poll questioned 15,970 people. What other goodies can we expect from this mega-poll?

[Davıd Boothroyd]

The Ashcroft marginals poll which is reported on the front page of the Sunday Telegraph is available on his website: lordashcroftpolls.com/2013/09/labour-still-on-course-in-the-marginals-but-its-not-over-yet/

[Deleted]

so the spin may be that Ed is not popular, big deal, the reality is that in marginals the Tories are in deep trouble and it seems the likes of Crosby are thinking this is Australia or the US.

[The Bishop]

Following the incredibly successful strategy of Romney last year, you mean? That's fine by us

[Deleted]

indeed, well pile up the 50K of votes in say Surrey, makes no difference to the GE result. They employ these people on mega wages and yet can not see what this story tells, the privatisation of say the RM is not going to be popular in the marginals and no need to do it apart from for dogma reasons.

[Deleted]

"Dogmatic", Ian.

"Ed is unpopular, so what" is dangerous complacency. He's going to have to pass the Prime Minister Suitability Test - just as Kinnock and Brown failed in their time.

[The Bishop]

Even more complacent is the coalition belief that it is 1992 all over again and just repeating "Ed is crap" until the GE will do the trick.

[Deleted]

Sept 15, 2013 9:01:16 GMT doktorb🏳️‍🌈🏳️‍⚧️ said:

"Dogmatic", Ian.

"Ed is unpopular, so what" is dangerous complacency. He's going to have to pass the Prime Minister Suitability Test - just as Kinnock and Brown failed in their time.

As Bish says this is not 1992. Brown never lost because oif him but because we were generally unpopular, it is the policies that thank god people still decide on.

Now here is a what if question.

IF Thatcher was still PM in Apr 1992 would we still have lost. I am convinced we lost because Major was 'not Thatcher' not because of Kinnock.

[The Bishop]

Yep - lots of people almost felt as if they had already had a change of government in late 1990.

And even then, the right wing press at the absolute height of their power - with effectively no challenge from social media, unlike now - were only just able to get the Tories over the line. People who expect a repeat in 2015 are setting themselves up for disappointment.

[Deleted]

And as we have discussed this so called recovery is largely based in one area and thus in the marginals with reduced money from wages and increased costs people do not feel it.

[Deleted]

Mike Smithson @msmithsonpb

Constituency specific findings in @lordashcroft marginals poll knock on head the first time incumbency bonus theory for Tories

[Deleted]

Here's another Twitter update. I'll refrain from posting too many in the future as I know that annoys the hell out of most people here.

@georgeeaton George Eaton
On Ashcroft marginals poll (Labour ahead), worth remembering that 2008 equivalent showed a Tory majority of 146 seats. Long way to go.

As the Conservatives found in the last parliament (and Neil Kinnock in the early nineties), even enjoying leads of 20%-plus eighteen months to two years prior to an election doesn't always mean you're going to win.

[Deleted]

stop referring back because it is not relevant when the situation is massively different. Do you really believe for example Labour will get lower than 2010 or LD's will get as high ?

[Deleted]

I think Labour's share will go up (it did in 1987 and 1992, after all), but looking at current polls I also think there's a good chance ours just might also. Plus I doubt the LibDems are going to do quite as badly as they are now.

[Andrew_S]

The average Labour lead in the 15 opinion polls this month is 5%, so Ashcroft's national figures are exactly in line with that.

[Deleted]

Sept 15, 2013 15:52:22 GMT swanarcadian said:

I think Labour's share will go up (it did in 1987 and 1992, after all), but looking at current polls I also think there's a good chance ours just might also. Plus I doubt the LibDems are going to do quite as badly as they are now.

not as badly but it is about being relative to 2010 of course and the way the votes are spread. I expect the LD's to hold up very well in some areas and have massive vote losses in areas where they are third in a marginal.

[Deleted]

I note now how quiet Burley is and seems to be only visible when campaigning against Cannock hospital possibly closing (oh the irony of that).

What did happen to the Tory anti TU group ?

[marksenior]

One minor point , I see this poll has Lancaster/Fleetwood classified as a seaside resort constituency . Not particularly accurate though it would not fit better into the other groups .

[carlton43]

Sept 15, 2013 9:21:31 GMT @ianrobo said:

Sept 15, 2013 9:01:16 GMT doktorb🏳️‍🌈🏳️‍⚧️ said:

"Dogmatic", Ian.

"Ed is unpopular, so what" is dangerous complacency. He's going to have to pass the Prime Minister Suitability Test - just as Kinnock and Brown failed in their time.

As Bish says this is not 1992. Brown never lost because oif him but because we were generally unpopular, it is the policies that thank god people still decide on.

Now here is a what if question.

IF Thatcher was still PM in Apr 1992 would we still have lost. I am convinced we lost because Major was 'not Thatcher' not because of Kinnock.

I am sure that you are wrong Ian. Kinnock was disliked and distrusted on a far wider basis than the marginal benefit the Tories derived, away from areas in the South, by ditching Mrs. T. In my analysis the tone of the Sheffield Rally was a pivotal event in shedding a significant number of potential Labour votes to other parties or mainly to 'not voting', whilst also tending to bring out more reluctant Tories or anti-Labour votes. I call it as I saw it in East Anglia, Noth Yorkshire and East Midlands.