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Post by middleenglander on Sept 3, 2021 9:27:23 GMT
There was some limited discussion last night as to how well Labour had performed in Calderdale: Ryburn. Comparison with the years 2016 to 2021 is complicated by the canditurers of the two Independents, one the former Conservative Councillor. Both the 2010 and 2015 local elections were at the same time as General Elections whilst prior to 2010, when Labour was in Government, the Liberal Democrats were generally the runners-up in the ward polling some 25% to 30% compared to their current 3%. So comparison with 2011, 2012 and 2014 is considered the most relevant. The first thing to say is that the 2021 by-election along with the 2011 to 2014 ones were all contested by Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democrats and Greens and no others. Secondly the electorate over the last few years is little changed, from 8,772 in 2010 to 8,916 for the by-election last night. The electorate in 2011 at 8,576 was the lowest in 10 years but only 2½% below the average and 4% down on the by-election. The by-election comparison can then be given by: | Party | 2021 B share | 2014 share | 2012 share | 2011 share | since 2014 | since 2012 | since 2011 | | Conservative | 53.6% | 50.9% | 45.2% | 53.0% | +2.7% | +8.4% | +0.6% | | Labour | 36.0% | 26.6% | 34.0% | 30.4% | +9.4% | +2.0% | +5.6% | | Liberal Democrats | 3.0% | 6.3% | 8.3% | 8.2% | -3.3% | -5.3% | -5.2% | | Green | 7.4% | 16.2% | 12.6% | 8.4% | -8.8% | -5.2% | -1.0% | | Electorate | 8,916 | 8,739 | 8,818 | 8,576 | +2% | +1% | +4% |
Both Conservative and Labour polled a higher share in last night's by-election than in 2011, 2012 and 2014 whilst the Liberal Democrats and Greens polled a lower share than in those 3 years. It would appear the higher Labour share is predominantly at the expense of both Liberal Democrats and Greens. |
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Post by Merseymike on Sept 3, 2021 9:49:39 GMT
Both Conservative and Labour polled a higher share in last night's by-election than in 2011, 2012 and 2014 whilst the Liberal Democrats and Greens polled a lower share than in those 3 years. It would appear the higher Labour share is predominantly at the expense of both Liberal Democrats and Greens. It isn't a bad result for Labour in what is a natural Tory ward. Trouble is, its not a bad result for the Conservatives either, and Labour need the LibDems to take a few of those soft Tory voters to win Calder Valley. Repeat this result and the Tories would hang on unless Labour really can shift those voters in Hebden Bridge and Luddendenfoot. Problem being, they are middle class lefties in the main and Starmer won't appeal at all. |
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Post by hullenedge on Sept 3, 2021 10:12:43 GMT
There was some limited discussion last night as to how well Labour had performed in Calderdale: Ryburn. Comparison with the years 2016 to 2021 is complicated by the canditurers of the two Independents, one the former Conservative Councillor. Both the 2010 and 2015 local elections were at the same time as General Elections whilst prior to 2010, when Labour was in Government, the Liberal Democrats were generally the runners-up in the ward polling some 25% to 30% compared to their current 3%. So comparison with 2011, 2012 and 2014 is considered the most relevant. The first thing to say is that the 2021 by-election along with the 2011 to 2014 ones were all contested by Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democrats and Greens and no others. Secondly the electorate over the last few years is little changed, from 8,772 in 2010 to 8,916 for the by-election last night. The electorate in 2011 at 8,576 was the lowest in 10 years but only 2½% below the average and 4% down on the by-election. The by-election comparison can then be given by: | Party | 2021 B share | 2014 share | 2012 share | 2011 share | since 2014 | since 2012 | since 2011 | | Conservative | 53.6% | 50.9% | 45.2% | 53.0% | +2.7% | +8.4% | +0.6% | | Labour | 36.0% | 26.6% | 34.0% | 30.4% | +9.4% | +2.0% | +5.6% | | Liberal Democrats | 3.0% | 6.3% | 8.3% | 8.2% | -3.3% | -5.3% | -5.2% | | Green | 7.4% | 16.2% | 12.6% | 8.4% | -8.8% | -5.2% | -1.0% | | Electorate | 8,916 | 8,739 | 8,818 | 8,576 | +2% | +1% | +4% |
Both Conservative and Labour polled a higher share in last night's by-election than in 2011, 2012 and 2014 whilst the Liberal Democrats and Greens polled a lower share than in those 3 years. It would appear the higher Labour share is predominantly at the expense of both Liberal Democrats and Greens. Ryburn has returned Labour councillors albeit in a very good year for them. Yesterday's result is quite unremarkable. The Lib Dems have fancied their chances a few times and occasionally come a respectable second. Going back a long time they (Libs then) were very confident that they had one seat in the bag at the 1973 inaugural elections. |
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Post by carlton43 on Sept 3, 2021 13:00:31 GMT
82.9%. Not quite as high as their 2019 vote share
Perhaps, but compared to 2021's election we have gone from 61% to 83% and the Tories 33% to 9%.
2019 was a historical high-point for Labour and this election is far above average for the last decade.
One can read nothing at all out of that as frankly it has nothing at all to do with ordinary English politics in any way or shape or form. |
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johng
Labour
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Post by johng on Sept 3, 2021 13:25:03 GMT
Perhaps, but compared to 2021's election we have gone from 61% to 83% and the Tories 33% to 9%.
2019 was a historical high-point for Labour and this election is far above average for the last decade.
One can read nothing at all out of that as frankly it has nothing at all to do with ordinary English politics in any way or shape or form. That's every council by-election though... |
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Post by greenchristian on Sept 3, 2021 14:22:25 GMT
Perhaps, but compared to 2021's election we have gone from 61% to 83% and the Tories 33% to 9%.
2019 was a historical high-point for Labour and this election is far above average for the last decade.
One can read nothing at all out of that as frankly it has nothing at all to do with ordinary English politics in any way or shape or form. To quote Peter Snow "it's just a bit of fun". There's no need to be all killjoy about it. |
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Post by lancastrian on Sept 3, 2021 14:34:24 GMT
Perhaps, but compared to 2021's election we have gone from 61% to 83% and the Tories 33% to 9%.
2019 was a historical high-point for Labour and this election is far above average for the last decade.
It’s the type of ward where the ethnicity of the candidates can lead to big swings. Labour had a non Asian candidate in May, against an Asian Conservative, More important than ethnicity I think is that the Conservative candidate in May was Shakir Saghir, who was, assuming it's the same man, also their candidate in 2012, 2014 and 2015. A Shakir Saghir was also the EDP candidate back in 2007, and a Shakar Saghir was the independent candidate in 2006, 2008 and 2011 (noting they never stood against each other, are any of these three the same person?). There was also a Chaudhary Saghir who was the independent in 2016. The very good Conservative performance in 2004 was with a full slate of Saghirs. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 3, 2021 16:26:40 GMT
Local byelections can be the tea leaves only we can read.
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johng
Labour
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Post by johng on Sept 3, 2021 16:52:00 GMT
One can read nothing at all out of that as frankly it has nothing at all to do with ordinary English politics in any way or shape or form. To quote Peter Snow "it's just a bit of fun". There's no need to be all killjoy about it. a killyjoy!? I never would have thought so. |
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Post by finsobruce on Sept 3, 2021 18:23:18 GMT
Local byelections can be the tea leaves only we can read. To see if there is trouble brewing? |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 3, 2021 18:24:36 GMT
Local byelections can be the tea leaves only we can read. To see if there is trouble brewing? Are the opposition stirring? |
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
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Post by Chris from Brum on Sept 3, 2021 18:25:25 GMT
To see if there is trouble brewing? Are the opposition stirring? They're trying to milk the situation. |
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Post by finsobruce on Sept 3, 2021 18:27:34 GMT
To see if there is trouble brewing? Are the opposition stirring? Musn't lump them all in together though. |
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Post by finsobruce on Sept 3, 2021 18:31:07 GMT
There was some limited discussion last night as to how well Labour had performed in Calderdale: Ryburn. Comparison with the years 2016 to 2021 is complicated by the canditurers of the two Independents, one the former Conservative Councillor. Both the 2010 and 2015 local elections were at the same time as General Elections whilst prior to 2010, when Labour was in Government, the Liberal Democrats were generally the runners-up in the ward polling some 25% to 30% compared to their current 3%. So comparison with 2011, 2012 and 2014 is considered the most relevant. The first thing to say is that the 2021 by-election along with the 2011 to 2014 ones were all contested by Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democrats and Greens and no others. Secondly the electorate over the last few years is little changed, from 8,772 in 2010 to 8,916 for the by-election last night. The electorate in 2011 at 8,576 was the lowest in 10 years but only 2½% below the average and 4% down on the by-election. The by-election comparison can then be given by: | Party | 2021 B share | 2014 share | 2012 share | 2011 share | since 2014 | since 2012 | since 2011 | | Conservative | 53.6% | 50.9% | 45.2% | 53.0% | +2.7% | +8.4% | +0.6% | | Labour | 36.0% | 26.6% | 34.0% | 30.4% | +9.4% | +2.0% | +5.6% | | Liberal Democrats | 3.0% | 6.3% | 8.3% | 8.2% | -3.3% | -5.3% | -5.2% | | Green | 7.4% | 16.2% | 12.6% | 8.4% | -8.8% | -5.2% | -1.0% | | Electorate | 8,916 | 8,739 | 8,818 | 8,576 | +2% | +1% | +4% |
Both Conservative and Labour polled a higher share in last night's by-election than in 2011, 2012 and 2014 whilst the Liberal Democrats and Greens polled a lower share than in those 3 years. It would appear the higher Labour share is predominantly at the expense of both Liberal Democrats and Greens. Ryburn has returned Labour councillors albeit in a very good year for them. Yesterday's result is quite unremarkable. The Lib Dems have fancied their chances a few times and occasionally come a respectable second. Going back a long time they (Libs then) were very confident that they had one seat in the bag at the 1973 inaugural elections.Are they still using that result in a bar chart?  |
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