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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Aug 4, 2021 7:06:39 GMT
I'm putting this prediction competition up early in case I forgot later, as this by-election is not exactly high profile.
Wiltshire PCC by-election - August 19th 2021 - Prediction Competition
The candidates as a reminder are:
Junab Ali Labour Co-op (Swindon)
Julian Henry Malins Reform UK (Redlynch, just north of Salisbury)
Brian George Felton Mathew Liberal Democrats (Chippenham)
Mike Rees Independent (Brinkworth Division, somewhere near Malmesbury)
Philip Wilkinson Conservative (Devizes)
Rules 1. Predict the Exact percentage score for each of the 5 candidates, to 1 decimal place. (This is percentages for each candidate before transfers)
2. Your total predictions must add up to 100%.
3. You will be penalised the amount you are above / below 100%, so please check your predictions carefully. 4. Please also predict the winner after transfers.
5. You will be penalised 5 points for each candidate missing from your prediction.
6. You will be penalised 5 points for predicting the wrong winner.
7. Deadline for Predictions is close of Poll, 10pm on Thursday 19th August 2021.
8. The Winner is the person with the lowest score once scores, including any penalties, have been calculated after the by election.
You must post all predictions with low confidence, as PCC election rules do not allow any conviction of any sort whatsoever.
Alien8Ted
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Post by yellowperil on Aug 4, 2021 16:00:26 GMT
Does the result of this competition stand if the candidate duly elected is subsequently discovered to be disqualified by virtue of a previous conviction?
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Aug 4, 2021 18:12:30 GMT
Does the result of this competition stand if the candidate duly elected is subsequently discovered to be disqualified by virtue of a previous conviction? No, we will have to have a bye-bye-election. |
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Post by froome on Aug 4, 2021 20:12:31 GMT
Does the result of this competition stand if the candidate duly elected is subsequently discovered to be disqualified by virtue of a previous conviction? No, we will have to have a bye-bye-election. Surely it would be a bye-bye by-election. At least we are not in a country where it is just a buy election, though sometimes it does feel like we might be. |
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peterl
Green
Congratulations President Trump
Posts: 8,473 
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Post by peterl on Aug 5, 2021 15:39:06 GMT
Philip Wilkinson Conservative 34.5%
Brian George Felton Mathew Liberal Democrats 26.8%
Mike Rees Independent 19.9%
Junab Ali Labour Co-op 17.4%
Julian Henry Malins Reform UK 1.4%
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Post by froome on Aug 13, 2021 17:16:26 GMT
As promised:
First round:
Wilkinson (Conservative) 33.2%
Rees (Independent) 27.6%
Mathew (Lib Dem) 21.7%
Ali (Labour) 14.2%
Malins (Reform) 3.3%
Second round:
Rees (Independent) 53.7%
Wilkinson (Conservative) 46.3%
As a bonus, turnout 14.5%
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Post by greenhert on Aug 18, 2021 20:03:27 GMT
Philip Wilkinson (Conservative) 38%
Brian Mathew (Liberal Democrats) 26%
Mike Rees (Independent) 20%
Junab Ali (Labour) 14%
Julian Malins (Reform UK) 2%.
Second round:
Philip Wilkinson (Conservative) 52%
Brian Mathew (Liberal Democrats) 48%.
Conservative HOLD.
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Aug 18, 2021 20:56:44 GMT
Conservative -37.9%
Independent – 21.7%
Liberal Democrats – 19.9%
Labour Co-op – 18.6%
Reform UK - 1.9%
Conservative HOLD.
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Post by yellowperil on Aug 18, 2021 21:29:20 GMT
Conservative -37.9% Independent – 21.7% Liberal Democrats – 19.9% Labour Co-op – 18.6% Reform UK - 1.9% Conservative HOLD. I'm a bit surprised you think that would be a Con hold on those figures. On a run off between Con and Indy you expect something like a third of Lab and LD votes to transfer to the Tory? Well maybe,but it would be a damn close run thing. |
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Aug 18, 2021 21:31:48 GMT
Conservative -37.9% Independent – 21.7% Liberal Democrats – 19.9% Labour Co-op – 18.6% Reform UK - 1.9% Conservative HOLD. I'm a bit surprised you think that would be a Con hold on those figures. On a run off between Con and Indy you expect something like a third of Lab and LD votes to transfer to the Tory? Well maybe,but it would be a damn close run thing.
I'm assuming a lot of non transfers as people selected Liberal Democrat, Labour or no second candidate.
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ricmk
Lib Dem
Posts: 2,615
Member is Online
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Post by ricmk on Aug 18, 2021 21:59:30 GMT
Cons - 39
LD -31
Ind -20
Lab - 9.5
Reform -0.5
Lib Dem win on second preferences.
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Post by yellowperil on Aug 19, 2021 7:58:36 GMT
First preferences
Con 35.3
Lib Dem 30.1
Ind 19.4
Lab 14.2
Reform 1.0
After transfers
Lib Dem 51.6
Con 48.4
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Aug 19, 2021 8:46:06 GMT
Philip Wilkinson Conservative 34.5% Brian George Felton Mathew Liberal Democrats 26.8% Mike Rees Independent 19.9% Junab Ali Labour Co-op 17.4% Julian Henry Malins Reform UK 1.4% Please confirm who you think will win after transfers. |
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peterl
Green
Congratulations President Trump
Posts: 8,473
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Post by peterl on Aug 19, 2021 11:24:45 GMT
Philip Wilkinson Conservative 34.5% Brian George Felton Mathew Liberal Democrats 26.8% Mike Rees Independent 19.9% Junab Ali Labour Co-op 17.4% Julian Henry Malins Reform UK 1.4% Please confirm who you think will win after transfers. Conservatives. |
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Aug 19, 2021 17:02:31 GMT
Competition closes at 10pm
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Post by Richard Cromwell on Aug 19, 2021 18:31:50 GMT
First Round | CON | 34% | | IND | 23% | | LD | 22% | | LAB | 20% | | Reform | 1% |
Second Round |
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Aug 19, 2021 20:11:51 GMT
Final Call
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Post by johnloony on Aug 20, 2021 7:29:46 GMT
Sorry, I was forgetting that it was this week. I predict a turnout of less than 45%. I predict a Conservative hold. If you want percentages, I predict whatever the average is of all the other entries so far in this thread.
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Aug 20, 2021 12:03:22 GMT
7 entries
Conservative ahead for all on 1st preferences but after 2nd preferences
Conservative Victory - PeterL, GreenHert, Alien8Ted, RickMK Liberal Democrat Victory - YellowPeril Independent Victory - Froome, RichardCromwell
1st Preference Vote Range
Conservative = 5.8% from 33.2% (Froome) to 39% (RickMK)
Liberal Democrat = 11.1% from 19.9% (Alien8Ted) to 31% (RickMK)
Independent = 8.2% from 19.4% (YellowPeril) to 27.6% (Froome)
Labour = 10.5% from 9.5% (RickMK) to 20% (RichardCromwell)
Reform UK = 2.8% from 0.5% (RickMK) to 3.3% (Froome)
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Aug 20, 2021 14:47:43 GMT
froome is the winner, as accuracy of predictions mean he can't be caught.
Prediction Only
Froome 6.3
Alien8Ted 12.5
RichardCromwell 15.7
Greenhert 16.3
Peter L 20.1
YellowPeril 20.5
RickMK 28.3
Final result will determine who finishes 2nd to 5th
If Rees wins RichardCromwell will rise to 2nd and Alient8Ted will finish 3rd. Positions 4th to 7th will stay as they are.
If the Conservative wins then Alien8Ted will finish 2nd, Greenhert 3rd, Peter L 4th and RichardCromwell 5th. Positions 6th and 7th will stay as they are.
I will post final scores later.
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