Many thanks. In the end quite close, you nearly pipped my to the post.
I am quite amazed at how close my estimate of the Independent and Labour votes were in the first round - just 0.2 and 0.1% away. I was pretty certain the Independent's vote would rise significantly, and that it ought to attract quite a lot of ex Conservative voters who might prefer to have a non-party commissioner. But I did overestimate the likelihood of transfers from the defeated candidates, so perhaps the Independent was too attractive to Conservative-inclined voters and thus not different enough for others.