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Post by bjornhattan on Aug 26, 2021 23:48:49 GMT
Compare and contrast Medway: Princes Park (12% swing to Conservative) and Medway: Strood North (4% to Labour)!! Does anyone have a solid explanation? The two seem to have similar demographic profiles too, at least when it comes to age, education, and social class. The only two differences are that Strood North is a little more ethnically diverse (but only a little), and also Strood North is more of a "town centre" ward and so may be attracting a different type of person from a suburban ward like Princes Park. But in all likelihood it's just local factors or to do with the specific candidates involved - it's easy to overthink these things. |
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Post by middleenglander on Aug 26, 2021 23:55:58 GMT
Compare and contrast Medway: Princes Park (12% swing to Conservative) and Medway: Strood North (4% to Labour)!! Does anyone have a solid explanation? The two seem to have similar demographic profiles too, at least when it comes to age, education, and social class. The only two differences are that Strood North is a little more ethnically diverse (but only a little), and also Strood North is more of a "town centre" ward and so may be attracting a different type of person from a suburban ward like Princes Park. But in all likelihood it's just local factors or to do with the specific candidates involved - it's easy to overthink these things. Did the late Conservative sitting as Independent in Strood North leave a bad legacy? The Greens polled 23% in Strood North but 3½% in Princes Park - is that a pointer to very local issues? |
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timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823 
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Post by timmullen1 on Aug 27, 2021 0:07:58 GMT
Did the late Conservative sitting as Independent in Strood North leave a bad legacy? The Greens polled 23% in Strood North but 3½% in Princes Park - is that a pointer to very local issues? [/quote] Expelled from both Group and Party in 2019 over Islamaphobic social media posts as per Andrew’s Previews. |
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Toylyyev
Mebyon Kernow
CJ Fox avatar
Posts: 1,067
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Post by Toylyyev on Aug 27, 2021 0:45:19 GMT
Compare and contrast Medway: Princes Park (12% swing to Conservative) and Medway: Strood North (4% to Labour)!! Does anyone have a solid explanation? The efforts of the former were focused on Princes Park, and the other way round for Labour. |
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Post by listener on Aug 27, 2021 1:09:28 GMT
Does anyone have the figures for Graig?
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maxque
Non-Aligned
Posts: 9,306
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Post by maxque on Aug 27, 2021 1:21:52 GMT
Newport Graig John Jones (Conservatives): 610 John Harris (Labour): 534 Jeff Evans (Liberal Democrats): 71 for previous poster. |
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Post by yellowperil on Aug 27, 2021 5:58:29 GMT
Is it fair to say that of the two Medway seats, Strood North is the more middle class? No. |
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Post by yellowperil on Aug 27, 2021 6:10:02 GMT
Compare and contrast Medway: Princes Park (12% swing to Conservative) and Medway: Strood North (4% to Labour)!! Does anyone have a solid explanation? The efforts of the former were focused on Princes Park, and the other way round for Labour. Um, maybe good campaigning on the ground, awful tactically if they finished up winning Princes Park by a landslide and narrowly losing Strood North. Could it be they like campaigning in areas where they hear what they want to hear and don't like campaigning where they have a battle on their hands? |
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Post by andrewp on Aug 27, 2021 6:17:23 GMT
I was hearing good things about the Cumbria seat and the campaign there,enough to make me predict a narrow Lib Dem gain, but still fairly astonished by the scale of that win. I suppose the firm hold on the seat before by the Indy made it difficult to judge, but little sign from e.g the district elections. Possibly an element of voters not liking the Unitary proposals there too. |
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Post by andrewp on Aug 27, 2021 6:19:04 GMT
Newport Graig John Jones (Conservatives): 610 John Harris (Labour): 534 Jeff Evans (Liberal Democrats): 71 for previous poster. That seems a very stable ward. It’s quite a similar result to 2004, 2012 and 2017. |
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iang
Lib Dem
Posts: 1,814
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Post by iang on Aug 27, 2021 6:39:32 GMT
That's six Lib Dem gains, plus three holds, in the last five weeks
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Post by Merseymike on Aug 27, 2021 6:47:15 GMT
Is it fair to say that of the two Medway seats, Strood North is the more middle class? No. Ok...it's just the results are so remarkably different. It may all be down to campaign priority or local issues but the contrast is notable. I always think of North Kent as being very Brexity, displaced Essex, and I know Chatham is like that, but wasn't ware Strood was too. It's not an area I know well. |
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Post by andrewteale on Aug 27, 2021 6:52:37 GMT
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Post by yellowperil on Aug 27, 2021 6:54:14 GMT
That's six Lib Dem gains, plus three holds, in the last five weeks Not to mention two more near misses from nowhere (Orwell and Sandwich). OTOH, pretty well all the others were very poor and mostly fast going backwards. We seem to be going forwards fast or in full retreat- good targetting of resources, maybe, but I think will have eventually need to widen the range of places going forwards- a few more solid advances from weak areas? |
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Post by Merseymike on Aug 27, 2021 6:59:16 GMT
That's six Lib Dem gains, plus three holds, in the last five weeks Not to mention two more near misses from nowhere (Orwell and Sandwich). OTOH, pretty well all the others were very poor and mostly fast going backwards. We seem to be going forwards fast or in full retreat- good targetting of resources, maybe, but I think will have eventually need to widen the range of places going forwards- a few more solid advances from weak areas? Is that necessarily a bad thing, though? You don't need to spread yourself too thin. I suppose the concern might be when the good results are localised to the extent that they are single pools of yellow in a red or more likely, blue sea, but if it helps to identify likely parliamentary seats to prioritise? |
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Post by yellowperil on Aug 27, 2021 7:10:41 GMT
Ok...it's just the results are so remarkably different. It may all be down to campaign priority or local issues but the contrast is notable. I always think of North Kent as being very Brexity, displaced Essex, and I know Chatham is like that, but wasn't ware Strood was too. It's not an area I know well. Not an area I know very well either, even though it not all that far away, Medway is all on the wrong side of the Downs, and then Strood is doubly detatched as its on the wrong side of the river ! It has been said, and from what I know I would agree, is that Strood is the more inner urban in character while Princes Park is more suburban, and if some of the latter was once local authority housing its the nice sort that's now all sold off and such areas are now more Tory than most. I have to agree I think the difference is more about local and personality issues and campaigning priorities. |
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Post by yellowperil on Aug 27, 2021 7:16:18 GMT
Not to mention two more near misses from nowhere (Orwell and Sandwich). OTOH, pretty well all the others were very poor and mostly fast going backwards. We seem to be going forwards fast or in full retreat- good targetting of resources, maybe, but I think will have eventually need to widen the range of places going forwards- a few more solid advances from weak areas? Is that necessarily a bad thing, though? You don't need to spread yourself too thin. I suppose the concern might be when the good results are localised to the extent that they are single pools of yellow in a red or more likely, blue sea, but if it helps to identify likely parliamentary seats to prioritise? Oh indeed, it's a good fault, much better than a thin spread everywhere. All I'm saying is that the time to widen out a bit may be coming. In that sense the Orwell and Sandwich results may be the ones that point the way forward, establishing bridgeheads for new advances. |
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Post by andrew111 on Aug 27, 2021 7:33:25 GMT
Not to mention two more near misses from nowhere (Orwell and Sandwich). OTOH, pretty well all the others were very poor and mostly fast going backwards. We seem to be going forwards fast or in full retreat- good targetting of resources, maybe, but I think will have eventually need to widen the range of places going forwards- a few more solid advances from weak areas? Is that necessarily a bad thing, though? You don't need to spread yourself too thin. I suppose the concern might be when the good results are localised to the extent that they are single pools of yellow in a red or more likely, blue sea, but if it helps to identify likely parliamentary seats to prioritise? Any Party on 10% or less in the polls has to defy gravity to win a seat at any level. That means hard campaigning which crucially means someone to organise that campaigning, and that person needs time, experience and motivation to go out and recruit and train people to go out and knock on doors and deliver leaflets. This was true even when the Lib Dems were on 15-20%, and there were areas of the country where we few if any councillors. Now it is much more difficult, but in Ashford or Medway for sure Lib Dems could break through again with a few true activists, as they have in places like Sunderland and Hull.. Parliamentary targets are also key here. They have paid organisers and have built up local strength used to success. So no surprise to win a by-election in Cumbria where the S Lakeland activists will do the work and writing the leaflets and organising can be done by Farron's staff. But in Kent there are no target seats and a small membership in Brexity areas with no existing campaigns to energise them. Credibility is also an issue. In Sheffield or Stockport where we are the main opposition the local media cannot ignore us. Voters believe the Lib Dems have a chance in these places, and that makes a big difference. |
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Post by andrewp on Aug 27, 2021 7:38:41 GMT
Ok...it's just the results are so remarkably different. It may all be down to campaign priority or local issues but the contrast is notable. I always think of North Kent as being very Brexity, displaced Essex, and I know Chatham is like that, but wasn't ware Strood was too. It's not an area I know well. In hindsight perhaps the past results foresaw the different results last night a bit. I don’t know if there have been significant boundary changes, but in 2003, the two wards returned very similar results, a Conservative win by about 50-100 votes, where as by 2019, Princes Park had swung significantly to the Conservatives and looked safe Con , where as Labour had advanced in Strood to split the 3 seats. |
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,908
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Post by YL on Aug 27, 2021 7:55:28 GMT
I was hearing good things about the Cumbria seat and the campaign there,enough to make me predict a narrow Lib Dem gain, but still fairly astonished by the scale of that win. I suppose the firm hold on the seat before by the Indy made it difficult to judge, but little sign from e.g the district elections. Possibly an element of voters not liking the Unitary proposals there too. I wondered about that; did the Lib Dems mention it in their campaign? (And is it that unpopular?) |
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