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Post by yellowperil on Aug 20, 2021 1:41:23 GMT
Ashford. Downs North Green 273 Con 239 LD 15 Quite happy to have called that one wrong. Didn't think we'd manage to squeeze the Lib Dems quite that much. I doubt they needed much squeezing, to be frank. The politically astute thing to have done here would have been to step aside and claim the credit for that, rather than reveal how teribly weak we really were, but I'm afraid the present lot of Ashford LibDems don't do politically astute. |
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Post by monksfield on Aug 20, 2021 6:47:11 GMT
Downs North one of a lengthening series of nice results for the Greens in Kent and Sussex. The Blue Wall may be showing cracks but the extent to which it fractures may be dependent on the ability to identify the best challenger.
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hebdo
Forum Regular
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Post by hebdo on Aug 20, 2021 7:14:23 GMT
What’s the story for the large drop in the Green vote in East Wolds and Coastal? It appears to be the same candidate from last time around and the always excellent preview doesn’t give any hints. Maybe, the YP taking the ‘none of the above’ vote?
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Post by yellowperil on Aug 20, 2021 7:46:01 GMT
Downs North one of a lengthening series of nice results for the Greens in Kent and Sussex. The Blue Wall may be showing cracks but the extent to which it fractures may be dependent on the ability to identify the best challenger. Downs North at first sight looks like a rather unlikely Green target. The two main villages, Chilham and Godmersham, have all the appearance of somewhere impecably feudal, two tiny villages grouped round the gates to their respective stately homes, Chilham Castle and Godmersham House (Godmersham with its strong Jane Austen connections). Chilham Castle , the brick Jacobean mansion with the medieval stone castle alongside, was until recently the home of Stuart Wheeler who helped to bankroll UKIP. But some of the lesser settlements are rather more nonconformist (in both the religious and more general sense), and especially Old Wives Lees, the place the Green candidate comes from. There may also be some changing demographics coming from the nearness to Canterbury, which is becoming a more "progressive" sort of place open to Greems, Lib Dems and Labour depending on who manages to get organised there first -some of the similar rural areas over the Canterbury border are Lib Dem, while much of Canterbury itself has gone red. |
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,901
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Post by Tony Otim on Aug 20, 2021 8:08:28 GMT
What’s the story for the large drop in the Green vote in East Wolds and Coastal? It appears to be the same candidate from last time around and the always excellent preview doesn’t give any hints. Maybe, the YP taking the ‘none of the above’ vote? Its worth noting that there was a c.450 vote gap between the top and bottom of the 3 Green candidates last time. The top one had been the regular candidate for a number of years, but it was the bottom one who stood this time. Beyond that I would guess that there probably wasn't a very active campaign, leading to votes being lost to the Yorkshire Party as being more NOTA and Labour, who had a fairly decent result and also to staying at home and not bothering. |
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Post by finsobruce on Aug 20, 2021 8:48:53 GMT
there is little more to say about this result.  |
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Post by evergreenadam on Aug 20, 2021 8:54:52 GMT
Downs North one of a lengthening series of nice results for the Greens in Kent and Sussex. The Blue Wall may be showing cracks but the extent to which it fractures may be dependent on the ability to identify the best challenger. Downs North at first sight looks like a rather unlikely Green target. The two main villages, Chilham and Godmersham, have all the appearance of somewhere impecably feudal, two tiny villages grouped round the gates to their respective stately homes, Chilham Castle and Godmersham House (Godmersham with its strong Jane Austen connections). Chilham Castle , the brick Jacobean mansion with the medieval stone castle alongside, was until recently the home of Stuart Wheeler who helped to bankroll UKIP. But some of the lesser settlements are rather more nonconformist (in both the religious and more general sense), and especially Old Wives Lees, the place the Green candidate comes from. There may also be some changing demographics coming from the nearness to Canterbury, which is becoming a more "progressive" sort of place open to Greems, Lib Dems and Labour depending on who manages to get organised there first -some of the similar rural areas over the Canterbury border are Lib Dem, while much of Canterbury itself has gone red. High speed rail links to London from Ashford and Canterbury may have also attracted a more metropolitan electorate. |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Aug 20, 2021 9:04:37 GMT
Remarkably the new councillor in Oakham South, the Lib Dem Paul Browne, first stood as a Liberal candidate in the 1970 general election; this was in Rushcliffe when Ken Clarke began his long paliamentary career. Has he had any local election success between then and now? |
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Post by middleenglander on Aug 20, 2021 9:55:42 GMT
27.9% turnout in Mid Formartine - 3,257 votes.
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Aug 20, 2021 10:20:22 GMT
Mid Formartine
First Preference
Conservative 1480
SNP 1205
Liberal Democrats 412 Green Party 144
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Post by andrewp on Aug 20, 2021 10:32:06 GMT
Mid Formartine
First Preference
Conservative 1480
SNP 1205
Liberal Democrats 412 Green Party 144
Con 45.7% SNP 37.2% LD 12.7% Green 4.4% |
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Post by middleenglander on Aug 20, 2021 11:08:27 GMT
Aberdeenshire: Mid Formartine - Conservative gain from SNPbased on first preference votes| Party | 2021 votes | 2021 share | since 2017 | | since 2012 * | since 2007 * | | Conservative | 1,480 | 45.7% | +11.1% |
| +29.4% | +28.6% | | SNP | 1,205 | 37.2% | +11.4% |
| +1.4% | +3.6% | | Liberal Democrat | 412 | 12.7% | +3.3% |
| +2.8% | -25.8% | | Green | 144 | 4.4% | from nowhere |
| from nowhere | from nowhere | | Independent Johnston ^ |
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| -20.6% |
| -21.1% |
| | Independent Goodall ^^ |
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| -4.8% |
| -8.1% |
| | Labour |
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| -4.7% |
| -8.9% | -7.7% | | Independent Kershaw |
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| -3.1% | | Total votes | 3,241 |
| 62% |
| 73% | 53% |
* boundary changes ^ stood as Liberal Democrat in 2007 ^^ Liberal Democrat candidate in by-election Swing: negligible between Conservative and SNP since 2019 otherwise not particularly meaningful Council now: 20 Conservative, 17 SNP, 13 Liberal Democrat, 9 Aligned Independent, 3 Alba, 3 Independent, 2 Independent & Green Group, 1 Labour, 1 Libertarian, 1 Unaligned Independent Ashford: Downs North - Green gain from Conservative| Party | 2021 votes | 2021 share | since 2019 B | since 2019 | since 2015 | since 2011 | | Green | 273 | 51.8% | +20.8% | +28.3% | +32.6% | +35.9% | | Conservative | 239 | 45.4% | +7.9% | -2.1% | -16.2% | -11.5% | | Liberal Democrat | 15 | 2.8% | -8.6% | -15.9% | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Ashford Independent |
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| -10.9% |
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| -27.3% | | UKIP |
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| -3.6% |
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| | Labour |
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| -2.8% | -10.4% | -19.2% |
| | Independent ^ |
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| -2.8% |
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| | Total votes | 527 |
| 86% | 67% | 35% | 52% |
^ Independent in 2019 by-election now Conservative candidate Swing: Conservative to Green 6½% since 2019 by-election, 15¼% since 2019, 24½% since 2015 and 23½% since 2015 Council now: 25 Conservative, 11 Ashford Independent, 6 Labour, 3 Green, 2 Independent Dover: Sandwich - Conservative hold | Party | 2021 votes | 2021 share | since 2019 "top" | since 2019 "average" | | Conservative | 721 | 51.6% | +17.3% | +17.2% | | Liberal Democrat | 676 | 48.4% | +34.0% | +33.8% | | Independent |
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| -24.8% | -25.1% | | Labour |
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| -13.6% | -13.0% | | Green |
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| -12.8% | -12.9% | | Total votes | 1,397 |
| 54% | 55% |
Swing: if meaningful Conservative to Liberal Democrat 8¼% Council now: 20 Conservative, 11 Labour, 1 Non-aligned East Yorkshire: East Wolds & Coastal - Conservative hold | Party | 2021 votes | 2021 share | since 2019 "top" | since 2019 "average" | since 2016 B | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | | Conservative | 1,190 | 54.0% | -2.3% | -2.3% | +1.3% | +13.0% | +15.1% | | Labour | 447 | 20.3% | +7.2% | +6.0% | -3.8% | +5.3% | +5.6% | | Yorkshire | 347 | 15.7% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Green | 142 | 6.4% | -24.2% | -23.0% | from nowhere | -7.2% | Row 5 column 8 | | Liberal Democrat | 79 | 3.6% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | -6.6% | Row 6 column 8 | | UKIP |
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| -23.3% | -20.3% | -21.4% | | Total votes | 2,205 |
| 55% | 60% | 62% | 22% | 23% |
Swing: probably most meaningful Green to Conservative 11% /10½% since 2019 and Labour to Conservative 2½% since 2016 by-election Council now: 48 Conservative, 9 Liberal Democrat, 7 Independent Group, 2 Yorkshire, 1 Independent Ribble Valley: Littlemore - Liberal Democrat hold | Party | 2021 votes | 2021 share | since 2019 "top" | since 2019 "average" | | Liberal Democrat | 281 | 49.0% | -8.9% | -9.5% | | Conservative | 216 | 37.7% | +14.1% | +16.2% | | Labour | 59 | 10.3% | -8.2% | -9.6% | | Green | 17 | 3.0% | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Total votes | 573 |
| 70% | 76% |
Swing: Liberal Democrat to Conservative 11½% / 12¾% since 2019 Council now: 27 Conservative, 10 Liberal Democrat, 3 Independent Ribble Valley: Primrose - Liberal Democrat hold | Party | 2021 votes | 2021 share | since 2019 "top" | since 2019 "average" | | Liberal Democrat | 200 | 43.9% | -16.5% | -17.2% | | Conservative | 119 | 26.1% | +10.4% | +10.7% | | Labour | 109 | 23.9% | -0.1% | +0.3% | | Green | 28 | 6.1% | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Total votes | 456 |
| 66% | 68% |
Swing: Liberal Democrat to Conservative 13½% / 14% since 2019 Council now: 27 Conservative, 10 Liberal Democrat, 3 Independent Rutland: Oakham South - Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative| Party | 2021 votes | 2021 share | since 2019 "top" | since 2019 "average" | | Liberal Democrat | 886 | 67.8% | +9.8% | +6.3% | | Conservative | 420 | 32.2% | -9.8% | -6.3% | | Total votes |
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| 88% | 94% |
Swing: Conservative to Liberal Democrat 9¾% / 6¼% since 2019
Council now: 14 Conservative, 6 Independent & Green Group, 4 Liberal Democrat, 3 Independent
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Post by carlton43 on Aug 20, 2021 11:26:58 GMT
Ah Bless!! Poor wee things too shagged out to even stand a candidate. The Planet will just have to wait to be saved whilst we snoflakes recover our diminished strength. Life is so hard ..................... At the edge! |
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Post by grahammurray on Aug 20, 2021 11:40:17 GMT
Ah Bless!! Poor wee things too shagged out to even stand a candidate. The Planet will just have to wait to be saved whilst we snoflakes recover our diminished strength. Life is so hard ..................... At the edge! What they really need to recharge their batteries is a break where they can switch off from the world and all its woes. A beach holiday in Cyprus, for example. |
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 9,141
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Post by cogload on Aug 20, 2021 11:49:03 GMT
Crete. A beach holiday in Crete if you are alluding to Raab.
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Post by carlton43 on Aug 20, 2021 11:50:23 GMT
Downs North one of a lengthening series of nice results for the Greens in Kent and Sussex. The Blue Wall may be showing cracks but the extent to which it fractures may be dependent on the ability to identify the best challenger. Get away! Who would ever have thought that might have been an important feature to an election? |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Aug 20, 2021 12:01:53 GMT
The Lib Dems put up Adrian Gee-Turner, who lives in central Ashford, had also been the PCC, and, to put it gently, always seems to minimise the Lib Dem vote wherever he goes.  |
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Post by yellowperil on Aug 20, 2021 12:22:15 GMT
Downs North one of a lengthening series of nice results for the Greens in Kent and Sussex. The Blue Wall may be showing cracks but the extent to which it fractures may be dependent on the ability to identify the best challenger. Get away! Who would ever have thought that might have been an important feature to an election? Well, getting it right has meant a Green councillor in Chilham of all places, so I'm sure you're delighted with that. |
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Post by yellowperil on Aug 20, 2021 12:26:01 GMT
The Lib Dems put up Adrian Gee-Turner, who lives in central Ashford, had also been the PCC, and, to put it gently, always seems to minimise the Lib Dem vote wherever he goes. That should have read PPC, of course. Fat fingers or something.Would have been even more interesting if PCC. |
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Post by yellowperil on Aug 20, 2021 12:29:18 GMT
Downs North at first sight looks like a rather unlikely Green target. The two main villages, Chilham and Godmersham, have all the appearance of somewhere impecably feudal, two tiny villages grouped round the gates to their respective stately homes, Chilham Castle and Godmersham House (Godmersham with its strong Jane Austen connections). Chilham Castle , the brick Jacobean mansion with the medieval stone castle alongside, was until recently the home of Stuart Wheeler who helped to bankroll UKIP. But some of the lesser settlements are rather more nonconformist (in both the religious and more general sense), and especially Old Wives Lees, the place the Green candidate comes from. There may also be some changing demographics coming from the nearness to Canterbury, which is becoming a more "progressive" sort of place open to Greems, Lib Dems and Labour depending on who manages to get organised there first -some of the similar rural areas over the Canterbury border are Lib Dem, while much of Canterbury itself has gone red. High speed rail links to London from Ashford and Canterbury may have also attracted a more metropolitan electorate. It is possible, tho' in my experience that effect has been rather marginal |
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