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Post by andrew111 on Aug 14, 2021 8:54:48 GMT
Odd that Labour haven't got a candidate for the Dover election . Nor in Rutland. Two straight fights between Tory and Lib Dem in one set of by-elections is unusual. (ooh, sorry, I used famously, allegedly, homophobic language without even thinking about it until afterwards!) |
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Post by andrew111 on Aug 14, 2021 8:58:38 GMT
The title of that last blog is a bit apocalyptic! Thankfully Manchester is still there but it is good to have a photographic record just in case! |
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Post by Merseymike on Aug 14, 2021 9:48:58 GMT
Three wards where Labour aren't standing. I get why Downs North really might not be worth the bother, but both Oakham and Sandwich are small, middle-class towns, and I can't see any reason why Labour wouldn't stand in both of them. They wouldn't win, but not having a presence in wards like this?
It looks as if the departing LibDems in Clitheroe, have moved to St. Andrews to be a social worker and play golf respectively. Of course it's a very strong area for the LibDems too, so wouldn't be surprised if they re-emerge.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 14, 2021 10:02:45 GMT
Ashford Downs NorthI will try to provide as much background as I can for this intriguing by-election, which is sort-of local for me, but where I am not directly involved so can take a fairly detached view. There is also a comment in the archives in you look back to the earlier byelection (July 2019) in the same ward, and a lot of background in the history thread about Ashford borough elections, written for this forum back in 2017. Downs North ward is a largely rural ward within Ashford Borough but much closer to Canterbury than Ashford - I would guess most of the electors would be much more likely to look to Canterbury for most services than to Ashford. Much of it is high downland and sparsely populated but it also includes a bit of the Stour valley between Ashford and Canterbury with the mainroad and rail links. It comprises 4 parishes- Chilham, Molash, Godmersham and Crundale.Chilham is the only village of any size*, but as well as the little hilltop cluster around the church and castle, within that parish there are also two sizeable downland hamlets in Shottenden and Old Wives Lees, and the roadside straggle of Bagham heading towards Canterbury. The other 3 parishes are barely more than hamlets themselves, and very separate. I have previously related the tale of a famous by election triumph in Molash back in the last century, when Molash was part of Boughton Aluph ward before the creation of Downs North and when the Borough ward here was just called Chilham. This is just instalment 1- I will say more a bit later about the political history of the ward through this century! * " of any size" is relative: Chilham parish is about 1100 people and the village itself is less than half of that. I'm glad you wrote this, as in my submission to the boundary commission regarding Kent I included that ward in my proposed Canterbury constituency (I actually had originally referred to it as Chilham in my written summary and only realised it had been renamed when I exported the .csv file from Boundary Assistant) |
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Post by Rutlander on Aug 14, 2021 10:08:02 GMT
Oakham South:
Labour have no elected councillors in Rutland & Melton (and what little strength they have is in Melton, not Rutland).
There were two Lab candidates in 2019 (2 wards, both young) and two in 2015 (1 ward); none were elected. Of the 2015 candidates, one has moved away and one is now a Green Party councillor.
Also, Oakham South has split LibDem and Tory representation and Lab standing would only benefit the Tory.
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Post by The Bishop on Aug 14, 2021 10:11:48 GMT
Yes, this may be the informal "progressive alliance" in operation again.
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Post by listener on Aug 14, 2021 10:30:51 GMT
Downs North includes the parish of Crundale (population at the last census of 186), which is the only one of the 43 parishes in the Borough of Ashford (including two pairs of joint parishes) without a parish council. It has an annual parish meeting.
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Post by yellowperil on Aug 14, 2021 10:47:13 GMT
Episode 2 of the Saga of Downs North. My first hand experience of this ward is oh so last century ( when it was called something else) but at least it's based on a lot of foot slogging in those days. I have canvassed and/or delivered in every part, most intensively in Molash but also in Chilham village, Old Wives Lees, Shottenden, Bagham, Bilting, Godmersham and Crundale. I've even done the lanes linking those tiny settlements to pick up the scattering of cottages and farmhouses miles from anywhere ( careful- if you follow the road link between Shottenden and Old Wives Lees you are actually for a short distance in Swale Borough- tho' I wouldn't mind betting none of the honourable members for Swale on here have actually done it)
Anyway, from the start of this century up to 2011 the established councillor here was Jane Marriott. She's still around- I believe she is still a Chilham parish councillor- but in those days she was a considerable political force and someone I had a lot to deal with. I can't say I liked her politics, which were typically high Tory, but had to respect her as a formidable political operator, and I think those sort of feelings were mutual. We were both strongly into longer term planning and there had been a time when we were the combined chairmanship of the Ashford Local Plan (me as chair, she as VC) and after I was gone she triumphantly took charge. She was also something of a small scale property developer and when we were rebuilding after our house was destroyed by fire she gave us a lot of advice on fitting out the house. She was something of an IKEA enthusiast and if I now sit here surrounded by Billy bookcases it's probably down to her. Anyway in 2003 Jane comfortably held off the challenge of Myrtle Butcher for the Lib Dems (Marriott 599, Butcher 158) but that was hardly surprising - Myrtle did campaign, but against a well establshed incumbent and coming from outside the ward in Westwell she did well to do as well as she did- but it did remind everyone there were votes for the anyonebutatory candidate.
In 2007 our candidate was Len Micklewright from Charing- excellent fellow, by then local party chair, but always intending very much to be a paper candidate while working his socks off elsewhere. Probably right as Myrtle had shown the difficulty of making much impact on the Marriott machine. We also had the intervention of a candidate from the Greens( Jan Cormack - can't remember where she suddenly came from). Result: Marriott 511, Cormack 240, Mickelwright 102. Did at least indicate that this was the sort of ward with a strong potential Green vote if it was nurtured.
in 2011 Jane retired, I suspect a little out of sorts with her own party group, but kept the Marriott machine in place by handing the reins (to mix metaphors a little) to her son Douglas. This was of course not a good year for the Lib Dems, and for the first time for ages we failed to field a candidate but the Ashford Independents challenged with Sarah Dacre, while the Greens found a new candidate in a guy from Old Wives Lees called Geoff Meaden of whom we will hear more... result Marriott 580, Dacre 279, Meaden 162.
Episode 3 will probably get us up to the present day.
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Post by yellowperil on Aug 14, 2021 15:45:42 GMT
Here comes episode 3 towards the latest in Ashford Downs North.Douglas Marriott proved to be a one term councillor (one issue that might be worth discussing is whether the idea of councillors bringing in their offspring when they want to retire, or having them succeed when they die, is altogether a good idea- two examples here, and the story hasn't been entirely happy). So when it came to 2015 the Downs North Tories had at last to contemplate being represented by someone who wasn't a Marriott. They selected Stephen Dehnel. Of course , 2015 was a rather different sort of election because of coinciding with the general election, so a much higher turnout with the extra voters very much concentrated on the national picture and for the first time for a long time a Labour name on the ballot paper, but again no Lib Dem. A different Green, Marilyn Samson. Result: Dehnel 932,Cleo Lewis (Lab)291, Samson 290.
Then in May 2019, back in civvies after the "wartime" 2015, and with a Lib Dem back in contention (David Reid, no, Ive no idea - never heard of him except for the name on this ballot paper!)we got very different figures: Dehnel 375,Samson 186, Reid 148, and a new Labour candidate, Carly Ruppert-Lingham(!) 82.
Many of you may then remember the subsequent by-election in July 2019 consequent on the death of Stephen Dehnel. We finished up with an unprecedented 7 candidates, including Charles Dehnel, the son of the deceased councillor for the Tories, Geoff Meaden back for the Greens, and candidates for the Lib Dems, Ashford Independents, UKIP, Labour and another Independent, one Sarah Williams from Molash or to be precise an isolated farm just within Molash but much closer to Challock in the next ward. The Lib Dems put up Adrian Gee-Turner, who lives in central Ashford, had also been the PCC, and, to put it gently, always seems to minimise the Lib Dem vote wherever he goes.The result: Dehnel scraped it with 229, Meaden on 190, Gee-Turner on 70. AI got 67, UKIP 22, Labour (Ruppert-Lingham again) 17. Which tied for last place with Sarah Williams,the Molash Indy.
Now we come to second by-election after the resignation of Dehnel fils.This time just the three candidates, the Tory who astonishingly turns out to be that Molash Indy Sarah Williams, Meaden for the Greens, and Carol Wilcox for the Lib Dems. Now Carol (I have to assume it's that Carol Wilcox!) is a former colleague and very good friend who I haven't seen now for two decades as our paths no longer cross , inspite of the fact that she appears to have become a Lib Dem, which is not that improbable.I note she also stood as a paper (I assume) candidate in Bockhanger ward back in 2019. I note unlike the other two candidates she doesn't reveal her actual address but when I knew her she lived at Crundale - she might have moved but she certainly lived in the ward for many years.So maybe we have one candidate in Molash, one in Old Wives Lees, and one in Crundale, all at very extremes of the ward and in absolutely tiny communities.
Who do I think will win? Difficult to say for certain but I would say this much-the Greens could hardly have written a better script for themselves.
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Post by Merseymike on Aug 14, 2021 17:02:22 GMT
Oakham South: Labour have no elected councillors in Rutland & Melton (and what little strength they have is in Melton, not Rutland). There were two Lab candidates in 2019 (2 wards, both young) and two in 2015 (1 ward); none were elected. Of the 2015 candidates, one has moved away and one is now a Green Party councillor. Also, Oakham South has split LibDem and Tory representation and Lab standing would only benefit the Tory. So you are suggesting Labour have decided not to stand to assist the LibDem? |
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Post by yellowperil on Aug 14, 2021 18:06:39 GMT
Downs North includes the parish of Crundale (population at the last census of 186), which is the only one of the 43 parishes in the Borough of Ashford (including two pairs of joint parishes) without a parish council. It has an annual parish meeting. When I was active in this area Molash also had an annual parish meeting and no council. Lot to be said for it in the case of very small parishes- direct democracy, why not? If I am right in my understanding and Carol Wilcox the LD candidate is a Crundale resident she will have been able to participate in the parish meeting. |
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Post by Toylyyev on Aug 14, 2021 22:29:58 GMT
The title of that last blog is a bit apocalyptic! Thankfully Manchester is still there but it is good to have a photographic record just in case! I sense a wild side that should provide a natural reactiveness to adversity and would worry more in the topically strict sense about the contratrian inclination towards control of their Liverpudlian brethren. Not being able to walk alone can have downsides as Mario Balotelli did find out at his expense. Telling that they use someone from over there as mayor.  |
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Post by Rutlander on Aug 15, 2021 7:37:15 GMT
Oakham South: Labour have no elected councillors in Rutland & Melton (and what little strength they have is in Melton, not Rutland). There were two Lab candidates in 2019 (2 wards, both young) and two in 2015 (1 ward); none were elected. Of the 2015 candidates, one has moved away and one is now a Green Party councillor. Also, Oakham South has split LibDem and Tory representation and Lab standing would only benefit the Tory. So you are suggesting Labour have decided not to stand to assist the LibDem? A weak local party that has only found four Labour candidates in the last three rounds of Rutland local elections can be presumed to have struggled to find anyone willing to be nominated. Knowing that if they did twist an arm they would only help elect yet another Tory would not encourage them to make the extra effort. |
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Post by phil156 on Aug 18, 2021 14:23:23 GMT
As normal English elections are counting Thursday night the Scottish one is 10am Friday morning
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Post by yellowperil on Aug 18, 2021 16:13:32 GMT
The Prediction competition of course takes care of whom honourable members think will win this time, and by how much, but I am tempted to speculate about another issue- turnout. I can imagine that enthusiasm for voting for your usual party even among political enthusiasts could well be at a low ebb, just to put it mildly. Add on all the knock on effects of Covid, and the middle of August, and GOTV could be pretty difficult for everyone. I know some of these problems are reduced on what they would have been before postal votes were so prevalent, but even so, will people with existing pvs be sufficiently enthused to send them in, I wonder. My impression was that last week was better than I might have expected, but I did wonder if this is the week it catches up?
My guess in Ashford Downs North, where the actual vote is typically 6-800,and barely that in the last byelection following an incumbent's death, might struggle to be much above 400 this time. Telling might be really exciting!
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Post by yellowperil on Aug 18, 2021 18:28:44 GMT
On election eve, Ashford BC and its leader Gerry Clarkson, featured prominently on BBC South East evening news- in that Clarkson going out of his way to welcome Afghan refugees to the borough and saying he didn't give a damn if people didn't like it -he wanted them to come. Maybe just as well the Conservatives will only be opposed by Greens and Lib Dems tomorrow, but wondered how it would go down with any of the Gammon brigade within his own voters.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Aug 18, 2021 18:51:55 GMT
On election eve, Ashford BC and its leader Gerry Clarkson, featured prominently on BBC South East evening news- in that Clarkson going out of his way to welcome Afghan refugees to the borough and saying he didn't give a damn if people didn't like it -he wanted them to come. Maybe just as well the Conservatives will only be opposed by Greens and Lib Dems tomorrow, but wondered how it would go down with any of the Gammon brigade within his own voters. Everyone's a winner. The Gammon brigade get a set of Anglophiles who want to work, and the Euronats and Gangmasters get their indentured labour back. |
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Post by andrew111 on Aug 18, 2021 18:55:46 GMT
On election eve, Ashford BC and its leader Gerry Clarkson, featured prominently on BBC South East evening news- in that Clarkson going out of his way to welcome Afghan refugees to the borough and saying he didn't give a damn if people didn't like it -he wanted them to come. Maybe just as well the Conservatives will only be opposed by Greens and Lib Dems tomorrow, but wondered how it would go down with any of the Gammon brigade within his own voters. Well, he is safe in the knowledge Ashford's share of 20k will not be many, and with so many Tory MPs and veterans attacking Johnson over it he is pretty safe I would think |
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Post by Merseymike on Aug 18, 2021 19:10:56 GMT
On election eve, Ashford BC and its leader Gerry Clarkson, featured prominently on BBC South East evening news- in that Clarkson going out of his way to welcome Afghan refugees to the borough and saying he didn't give a damn if people didn't like it -he wanted them to come. Maybe just as well the Conservatives will only be opposed by Greens and Lib Dems tomorrow, but wondered how it would go down with any of the Gammon brigade within his own voters. From your description the ward sounds more traditional shire Tory - so moderate like it's MP - than gammon which I guess would be more present in Chatham or Dartford?? |
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Post by yellowperil on Aug 18, 2021 19:26:49 GMT
On election eve, Ashford BC and its leader Gerry Clarkson, featured prominently on BBC South East evening news- in that Clarkson going out of his way to welcome Afghan refugees to the borough and saying he didn't give a damn if people didn't like it -he wanted them to come. Maybe just as well the Conservatives will only be opposed by Greens and Lib Dems tomorrow, but wondered how it would go down with any of the Gammon brigade within his own voters. From your description the ward sounds more traditional shire Tory - so moderate like it's MP - than gammon which I guess would be more present in Chatham or Dartford?? Yes I guess that is broadly true, but on what may be a low turnout ( I've guessed there may only be a total of say as little as 400 votes cast), a few disgruntled blimpish types could be significant if not voting ( and so maybe letting in the Green, ironically enough). |
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