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Post by mrhell on Aug 4, 2014 2:24:15 GMT
Crikey she's 0.55/1 with Betfair. Have to lay her heavily at that price.
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neilm
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Post by neilm on Aug 4, 2014 3:11:27 GMT
You can't really refuse at that price, can you. Insane not to.
Off topic but I wonder how you'd get on laying every horse that went odds on.
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Aug 4, 2014 8:24:26 GMT
(d) There will be concerns about the legacy or influence of Bill Clinton, who may be seen by some in the USA as "toxic" in the same way that Blair is eeen by some as toxic in the UK. No. |
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Post by Deleted on Aug 4, 2014 11:12:49 GMT
June 2006 polling D voters for Democratic presidential candidate:
Clinton 36%
Gore 16%
Edwards 12%
Kerry 11%
June 2014 polling:
Clinton 65%
Biden 12%
Warren 7%
Cuomo 3%
In the former, Clinton is ahead, but by no means out of reach; in the latter, she has nearly two thirds of the possible support already. Plus Warren has clearly ruled out a bid.
June 2006, polling for a general election matchup of Clinton vs X:
Clinton 42, McCain 46
Clinton 42, Giuliani 48
July 2014, polling for a general election matchup of Clinton vs X:
Clinton 48, Bush 41
Clinton 49, Paul 40
Clinton 47, Christie 38
Clinton 48, Ryan 41
Clinton 49, Huckabee 40
In the former, Clinton is behind both the leading Rep candidates; in the latter, she leads all by sizeable margins.
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Post by carlton43 on Aug 4, 2014 15:06:15 GMT
I don't think that Hilary will get the nomination but very much hope that she does, because I am sure she has the same effect on the average non-Democrat as she does on me, in that I would crawl over broken glass for 5-miles to vote against her.
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Aug 4, 2014 15:26:20 GMT
I don't think that Hilary will get the nomination but very much hope that she does, because I am sure she has the same effect on the average non-Democrat as she does on me, in that I would crawl over broken glass for 5-miles to vote against her. There was a time when that may have been the case but losing the nomination to Obama and then having what was perceived to have been a solid 4 years as Secretary of State seems to have vastly improved her image. The GOP base still loathe her but she seems to be pretty popular with the swing voters who decide presidential elections. It is also very hard to see her not getting the nomination unless she decides not to run. There seems to be a feeling among Democrats that having served the party well following her defeat at Obama's hands that to spurn her again would be unthinkable. |
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Post by carlton43 on Aug 4, 2014 15:29:06 GMT
I don't think that Hilary will get the nomination but very much hope that she does, because I am sure she has the same effect on the average non-Democrat as she does on me, in that I would crawl over broken glass for 5-miles to vote against her. There was a time when that may have been the case but losing the nomination to Obama and then having what was perceived to have been a solid 4 years as Secretary of State seems to have vastly improved her image. The GOP base still loathe her but she seems to be pretty popular with the swing voters who decide presidential elections. Thank you Richard. That is just the sort of informed and up to date comment that we can always rely upon from you. |
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Post by carlton43 on Aug 4, 2014 15:47:45 GMT
I don't think that Hilary will get the nomination but very much hope that she does, because I am sure she has the same effect on the average non-Democrat as she does on me, in that I would crawl over broken glass for 5-miles to vote against her. There was a time when that may have been the case but losing the nomination to Obama and then having what was perceived to have been a solid 4 years as Secretary of State seems to have vastly improved her image. The GOP base still loathe her but she seems to be pretty popular with the swing voters who decide presidential elections. It is also very hard to see her not getting the nomination unless she decides not to run. There seems to be a feeling among Democrats that having served the party well following her defeat at Obama's hands that to spurn her again would be unthinkable. I note your added para. If that is so how do you read the signs this far out? My untutored gut feeling is that she would be the best candidate to ensure a maximum negative turnout by the GOP. |
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Aug 4, 2014 16:58:43 GMT
There was a time when that may have been the case but losing the nomination to Obama and then having what was perceived to have been a solid 4 years as Secretary of State seems to have vastly improved her image. The GOP base still loathe her but she seems to be pretty popular with the swing voters who decide presidential elections. It is also very hard to see her not getting the nomination unless she decides not to run. There seems to be a feeling among Democrats that having served the party well following her defeat at Obama's hands that to spurn her again would be unthinkable. I note your added para. If that is so how do you read the signs this far out? My untutored gut feeling is that she would be the best candidate to ensure a maximum negative turnout by the GOP. She would probably motivate the GOP base to come out more than say Biden or O'Malley would but the no more than Obama did. In any event while getting your core voters out is always important the electoral college limits the importance of doing so. To key to winning a Presidential election in polarised modern America is winning over the swing voters in Florida, Ohio, Virginia and the various other competitive states. Of course while Clinton is the strong favourite to be the Democratic nominee and probably solid favourite to be the next President it should be remembered that an awful lot can happen in 2 years. |
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Post by johnloony on Aug 6, 2014 3:26:12 GMT
July 2014, polling for a general election matchup of Clinton vs X: Clinton 48, Bush 41 Is that Jeb or George P? |
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Post by johnloony on Aug 6, 2014 3:34:59 GMT
The GOP should select Roberta McCain as its candidate.
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Aug 6, 2014 11:51:44 GMT
July 2014, polling for a general election matchup of Clinton vs X: Clinton 48, Bush 41 Is that Jeb or George P? Jeb. |
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Post by Deleted on Aug 15, 2014 11:45:40 GMT
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Aug 15, 2014 12:53:14 GMT
There does seem to be a weary acceptance from many on the left of the Democratic party that Hilary is inevitable. They might not be overly enthused by that but by and large they don't look like doing much more than mumbling about it. In any event even if there were a widespread liberal revolt against Hilary she is incredibly well insulated against it. She is as strong as ever among the blue colour while Democrats who were her core support in 2008 and there is simply no way that she will poll as badly among black voters as she did last time. Those two factors combined form a near impregnable firewall so while she will likely face a challenge from the left, Sen Sanders has already said he will do it if no one else does, she will fend it off with ease. |
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neilm
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Post by neilm on Aug 27, 2014 19:41:48 GMT
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neilm
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Post by neilm on Nov 20, 2014 14:51:02 GMT
Jim Webb has formed an exploratory committee. I expect that if he does run he will go at Clinton from the left.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 21, 2014 0:09:02 GMT
Jim Webb has formed an exploratory committee. I expect that if he does run he will go at Clinton from the left. I can't link to it from my phone, but there's an article on 538 which says exactly the opposite - that he'll r run as the moderate centrist, and that he's right to do so. |
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maxque
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Post by maxque on Nov 21, 2014 3:36:14 GMT
Jim Webb has formed an exploratory committee. I expect that if he does run he will go at Clinton from the left. Let's not forget he was in Reagan's Cabinet and was elected as a centrist in 2006 (and winning in an huge upset, because the incumbent, George Allen, had a dismal campaign, including the infamous "Macacagate" (he called some Indian Democrat filming his campaign events a macaca)). |
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neilm
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Post by neilm on Nov 21, 2014 8:39:08 GMT
Jim Webb has formed an exploratory committee. I expect that if he does run he will go at Clinton from the left. I can't link to it from my phone, but there's an article on 538 which says exactly the opposite - that he'll r run as the moderate centrist, and that he's right to do so. The phone thing is slightly irksome I agree. This article from Politico suggests it'll be a campaign from the left: www.politico.com/story/2014/11/jim-webb-2016-committee-113055.htmlPresumably sources disagree on this because Webb hasn't yet decided himself! |
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Post by Deleted on Nov 21, 2014 12:42:43 GMT
Hmm, had a chance to read that Politico article now, and although he seems to have an endorsement ('bolstered'? 'boosted'?) from The Nation, that article doesn't actually make the case for him as being on Hillary's left, it leans heavily on his military experience and seems to say he's more of an isolationist and non-interventionist. The Politico article actually describes him as being a centrist, and The Nation as a populist. And for the giggles, here's Kos' take on him. I'd say he;s not getting the left there  |
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