Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,906
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Post by Tony Otim on Jul 16, 2021 19:41:26 GMT
WEST LOTHIAN UA; East Livingston & East Calder (Lab died)
Candidates:
DRUMMOND, Neal (Green)
EDGINGTON, Hans (Liberal Democrat)
HANNAH, John (Independence for Scotland)
LOGUE, Danny (Labour)
PHILIP, David (Conservative)
ULLATHORNE, Thomas George (SNP)
2017: SNP 1479, 972, 555; Lab 1749, 525; Con 1620; Grn 265; LD 198
2012: SNP 1147, 1006, 454; Lab 1914, 682; Save St Johns Hospital 380; Con 372
2007: Lab 1733, 1569; SNP 1918, 795; Save St Johns Hospital 625; Con 591; LD421; SSP 133
Neal Drummond stood here for the Greens in 2017.
Current Council: SNP 13 ; Lab 11 ; Con 7; Ind 1; 1 vacancy
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Aug 2, 2021 5:47:43 GMT
This looks like a tight 3 way contest, I think predicting how preferences go may well be tricky.
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,906
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Post by Tony Otim on Aug 2, 2021 6:58:15 GMT
This looks like a tight 3 way contest, I think predicting how preferences go may well be tricky. You've got to remember when looking at the results that it's not the same as looking at a multi-member FPTP result in England, so last time the SNP had approx. 700 more first preference votes than Labour who were in turn about 650 ahead of the Tories, so not that close really. |
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Post by andrew111 on Aug 2, 2021 7:40:44 GMT
This looks like a tight 3 way contest, I think predicting how preferences go may well be tricky. You've got to remember when looking at the results that it's not the same as looking at a multi-member FPTP result in England, so last time the SNP had approx. 700 more first preference votes than Labour who were in turn about 650 ahead of the Tories, so not that close really. Yes, but if the Tories transfer to Labour on the ABSNP ticket it could be close. Given the swings we have seen recently and what may have been a personal vote for the Labour Councillor perhaps their is a chance of the Tories getting second place on first preferences? |
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,906
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Post by Tony Otim on Aug 2, 2021 8:35:47 GMT
You've got to remember when looking at the results that it's not the same as looking at a multi-member FPTP result in England, so last time the SNP had approx. 700 more first preference votes than Labour who were in turn about 650 ahead of the Tories, so not that close really. Yes, but if the Tories transfer to Labour on the ABSNP ticket it could be close. Given the swings we have seen recently and what may have been a personal vote for the Labour Councillor perhaps their is a chance of the Tories getting second place on first preferences? Neither of which scenarios would constitute a close 3 way result... What I would say about the first is that IF the gap was similar to last time, it would be quite unlikely for it to be closed on transfers because too many votes just wouldn't transfer... especially when it is one of the big 3 we're talking about. |
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johnloony
Conservative
Posts: 24,587
Member is Online
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Post by johnloony on Aug 2, 2021 11:44:43 GMT
This looks like a tight 3 way contest, I think predicting how preferences go may well be tricky. A split of 3006 - 2274 - 1620 is not what any normal person would call “tight 3 way”. |
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Aug 2, 2021 12:30:22 GMT
This looks like a tight 3 way contest, I think predicting how preferences go may well be tricky. A split of 3006 - 2274 - 1620 is not what any normal person would call “tight 3 way”.
The top 3 candidates of different parties were close in votes in 2019.
You're adding up ignored split ticket voting, which is likely to have been quite major here.
Yes I realise this is only a 1 seat election, so factors at play will be different.
It could be tight 3 way or as others have indicated maybe more likely between the SNP and A.N.Other Party
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,906
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Post by Tony Otim on Aug 2, 2021 12:52:06 GMT
A split of 3006 - 2274 - 1620 is not what any normal person would call “tight 3 way”. The top 3 candidates of different parties were close in votes in 2019. You're adding up ignored split ticket voting, which is likely to have been quite major here. Yes I realise this is only a 1 seat election, so factors at play will be different. It could be tight 3 way or as others have indicated maybe more likely between the SNP and A.N.Other Party
There's no split ticket voting because each voter only gets 1 first preference. The SNP got first preferences from 3006 voters, Labour from 2274, and the Conservatives from 1620 voters. This is not multi-member FPTP its STV. |
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Post by andrew111 on Aug 2, 2021 12:58:14 GMT
A split of 3006 - 2274 - 1620 is not what any normal person would call “tight 3 way”.
The top 3 candidates of different parties were close in votes in 2019.
You're adding up ignored split ticket voting, which is likely to have been quite major here.
Yes I realise this is only a 1 seat election, so factors at play will be different.
It could be tight 3 way or as others have indicated maybe more likely between the SNP and A.N.Other Party
There is no split ticket voting in an STV election. Each person has only one vote, and they put the candidates in order of preference. There may of course be people who vote for candidate not Party in their first preference. That can and does happen in FPTP elections, probably more if anything, because there is less incentive for tactical voting under STV. However, adding the first preference votes together is the best guide to the standing of the Parties in that ward on that day more than 4 years ago, and much more meaningful than looking at highest votes, as we may do in multimember FPTP elections where split voting is a reality. Most people use their first two preferences for the same Party if there are two candidates. |
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johnloony
Conservative
Posts: 24,587
Member is Online
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Post by johnloony on Aug 2, 2021 17:18:27 GMT
A split of 3006 - 2274 - 1620 is not what any normal person would call “tight 3 way”. The top 3 candidates of different parties were close in votes in 2019. You're adding up ignored split ticket voting, which is likely to have been quite major here. Yes I realise this is only a 1 seat election, so factors at play will be different. It could be tight 3 way or as others have indicated maybe more likely between the SNP and A.N.Other Party
If you think that something which is, by definition, zero counts as “quite major” then you must be even further beyond the extreme end of ultra-stupidity than I thought already. |
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Aug 2, 2021 17:32:28 GMT
The top 3 candidates of different parties were close in votes in 2019. You're adding up ignored split ticket voting, which is likely to have been quite major here. Yes I realise this is only a 1 seat election, so factors at play will be different. It could be tight 3 way or as others have indicated maybe more likely between the SNP and A.N.Other Party
If you think that something which is, by definition, zero counts as “quite major” then you must be even further beyond the extreme end of ultra-stupidity than I thought already. I thought about reporting this but people are entitled to their name calling opinions. Yours though I am no longer interested in. Blocked. |
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Toylyyev
Mebyon Kernow
CJ Fox avatar
Posts: 1,067 
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Post by Toylyyev on Aug 2, 2021 17:54:32 GMT
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Post by andrew111 on Aug 3, 2021 7:45:29 GMT
That is indeed a highly informative website with a lot of information on second preferences and a recalculation of the last STV election as a single member AV by-election. And it shows that the SNP are in the lead when you eliminate their less popular candidates, so would have won on FPTP, but Labour would have won using AV thanks to transfers from the Tories |
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Post by andrew111 on Aug 3, 2021 7:55:28 GMT
STV elections are a psephological dream imo.
I did help run a mock election in a Leeds shopping centre back in the 80s with a mixture of politicians like Thatcher, Owen etc and celebrities like Brian Close on the ballot paper. Fascinating transfers (can't remember the details though!)
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,906
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Post by Tony Otim on Aug 3, 2021 10:10:37 GMT
That is indeed a highly informative website with a lot of information on second preferences and a recalculation of the last STV election as a single member AV by-election. And it shows that the SNP are in the lead when you eliminate their less popular candidates, so would have won on FPTP, but Labour would have won using AV thanks to transfers from the Tories Actually what kills the SNP on that model as much as the Tory transfers is vote leakage. They leak as many votes from their 2nd and 3rd candidates as Labour finish ahead, including 140 to Labour. If that doesn't happen (and of course it can't in a single vacancy election), then Labour never catch them. |
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Post by andrew111 on Aug 3, 2021 14:44:15 GMT
That is indeed a highly informative website with a lot of information on second preferences and a recalculation of the last STV election as a single member AV by-election. And it shows that the SNP are in the lead when you eliminate their less popular candidates, so would have won on FPTP, but Labour would have won using AV thanks to transfers from the Tories Actually what kills the SNP on that model as much as the Tory transfers is vote leakage. They leak as many votes from their 2nd and 3rd candidates as Labour finish ahead, including 140 to Labour. If that doesn't happen (and of course it can't in a single vacancy election), then Labour never catch them. True. Could be close then! |
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Post by andrewteale on Aug 3, 2021 20:10:43 GMT
That is indeed a highly informative website with a lot of information on second preferences and a recalculation of the last STV election as a single member AV by-election. And it shows that the SNP are in the lead when you eliminate their less popular candidates, so would have won on FPTP, but Labour would have won using AV thanks to transfers from the Tories Actually what kills the SNP on that model as much as the Tory transfers is vote leakage. They leak as many votes from their 2nd and 3rd candidates as Labour finish ahead, including 140 to Labour. If that doesn't happen (and of course it can't in a single vacancy election), then Labour never catch them. Let's test that. If we exclude the C, LD and Grn candidates from 2017 and redistribute their votes, we get: Dave King, Lab, 2406 Frank Anderson, SNP, 1569 Carl John, SNP, 1073 Scott Rogers, Lab, 813 Veronica Smith, SNP, 649 SNP 3291 (50.6%) Lab 3219 (49.4%) |
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Post by phil156 on Aug 5, 2021 9:05:00 GMT
Unusually for a Thursday night I shall go bed early as counting Friday morning
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Post by timrollpickering on Aug 5, 2021 19:47:18 GMT
Is there a previews this week?
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timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823
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Post by timmullen1 on Aug 5, 2021 20:51:51 GMT
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