|
|
Post by middleenglander on Jul 30, 2021 12:13:29 GMT
Not the greatest result ever for Labour. Not even a particularly strongly Hindu area (~1%), and even less so Jewish (~0.5%). Labour don't even have the excuse of being in government and having to make difficult decisions that annoy people. I wonder what the brave knight of Holborn can do to reconnect with ordinary people in normal counties like Essex. The contests in Basildon and Norfolk had a significant factor in common. Do you know what that was? I would say all 5 by-elections followed somewhat unnecessary resignations. |
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,925
Member is Online
|
Post by The Bishop on Jul 30, 2021 12:18:50 GMT
Yes, but only those two were caused by the resignation of individuals who had been personally re-elected just weeks earlier.
|
|
|
|
Post by middleenglander on Jul 30, 2021 12:36:50 GMT
Basildon: Pitsea North West - Conservative gain from Labour| Party | 2021 B votes | 2012 B share | since 2021 | since 2019 | since 2018 | since 2016 | | Conservative | 794 | 56.5% | +14.8% | +18.4% | +24.2% | +34.2% | | Labour | 430 | 30.6% | -16.0% | -17.8% | -16.6% | -13.7% | | Community Residents | 82 | 5.8% | -3.2% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Liberal Democrat | 57 | 4.1% | +1.4% | -9.4% | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Reform | 23 | 1.6% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | For Britain | 19 | 1.4% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | UKIP |
|
|
|
| -16.9% | -33.4% | | Democrats & Veterans |
|
|
|
| -3.7% |
| | Total votes | 1,405 |
| 59% | 77% | 69% | 65% |
Swing: Labour to Conservative 15Ā½% since May, 18% since 2019, 20Ā½% since 2018 and 24% since 2016 Council now: 25 Conservative, 11 Labour, 4 Independent. 2 Wickford Independent Bassetlaw: East Retford South - Conservative gain from Labour| Party | 2021 votes | 2021 share | since 2019 "top" | since 2019 "average" | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | | Conservative * | 493 | 40.1% | +22.6% | +23.1% | +11.1% | +11.0% | | Independent ** | 488 | 39.7% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Labour | 247 | 20.1% | -42.0% | -42.2% | -30.2% | -30.2% | | UKIP |
|
| -20.3% | -20.7% | -20.6% | -20.6% | | Total votes | 1,228 |
| 109% | 111% | 52% | 52% |
* Conservative candidate in by-election was UKIP in 2019 ** Independent candidate in by-election was resigning Labour councillor Swing: if meaningful Labour to Conservative ~ 32% since 2019 and ~ 20Ā½% since 2015 Council now: 35 Labour, 8 Conservative, 4 Independent, 1 Liberal Democrat Harrogate: Knaresborough Scriven Park - Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative| Party | 2021 votes | 2021 share | since 2018 | | Liberal Democrat | 635 | 56.6% | +19.6% | | Conservative | 384 | 34.3% | -4.2% | | Labour | 91 | 8.1% | -16.4% | | UKIP | 11 | 1.0% | from nowhere | | Total votes | 1,121 |
| 94% |
Swing: Conservative to Liberal Democrat 12% since 2018 Council now: 30 Conservative, 8 Liberal Democrat, 2 Ripon Independent Norfolk: Gaywood South - Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative| Party | 2021 B votes | 2021 share | since 2021 | since 2017 | since 2013 | | Liberal Democrat | 648 | 39.3% | +28.0% | +22.6% | +31.5% | | Labour | 561 | 34.0% | -1.6% | -0.2% | -3.4% | | Conservative | 378 | 22.9% | -25.3% | -15.8% | +2.0% | | Independent | 35 | 2.1% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | UKIP | 28 | 1.7% | -3.2% | -8.7% | -32.3% | | Total votes | 1,650 |
| 81% | 74% | 74% |
Swing: Conservative to Liberal Democrat 26Ā½% since May and 19Ā¼% since 2017 Council now: 57 Conservative, 12 Labour, 9 Liberal Democrat, 3 Green, 2 Independent, 2 Independent non-aligned South Tyneside: Felgate & Hedworth - Labour gain from Independent| Party | 2021 B votes | 2021 B share | since 2021 | since 2019 | since 2018 | since 2016 | | Labour | 850 | 49.1% | -5.2% | +9.6% | -9.0% | -25.3% | | Independent | 555 | 32.0% | from nowhere | -15.8% | +12.5% | from nowhere | | Conservative | 158 | 9.1% | -3.3% | +4.7% | +3.2% | -4.5% | | Liberal Democrat | 125 | 7.2% | from nowhere | -1.0% | -6.6% | from nowhere | | Green | 44 | 2.5% | -0.4% | from nowhere | -0.1% | -9.4% | | Previous Independent 1 |
|
| -27.6% |
|
|
| | Previous Independent 2 |
|
| -2.6% |
|
|
| | Total votes | 1,732 |
| 74% | 71% | 74% | 84% |
Swing: Independent Robertson to Labour 12Ā¾% since 2019 but Labour to Robertson 10Ā¾% since 2018 Council now; 45 Labour, 4 South Tyneside Independent, 3 Green, 1 Conservative, 1 vacancy
|
|
timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823 
|
Post by timmullen1 on Jul 30, 2021 12:41:48 GMT
So, apparently the Conservative in Gaywood South either mustnāt live in the Division or didnāt vote for himself, and if he had voted he would have voted LD.
|
|
|
|
Post by listener on Jul 30, 2021 12:47:23 GMT
It is interesting to look at Labourās performance in the 38 contested by-elections during June and July (2 double vacancies, making 40 seats in all).
Labour put up 36 candidates. They did not contest 2 seats in Somerset West and Taunton, Staines in Spelthorne and Harlech in Gwynedd. The first three suggest some kind of tacit support for the defending Lib Dem and Green Party candidates. Harlech is prime Independent territory. Labour also failed to nominate a candidate for Aber Valley in Caerphilly, which gave Plaid Cymru an unopposed return.
Labour held 5 seats, which they were defending ā 3 in London (Grove Green, Lea Bridge and Tollington), Tyn-y-Nant in South Wales and Liscard in the Wirral.
Labour lost 8 seats which they were defending (including 2 where the retiring councillor had gone Independent) ā
6 to the Conservatives in Sandwell, Bassetlaw, North East Lincolnshire, Leicester, Harlow and Basildon
1 to the Lib Dems in Chichester
1 to Independent in Huntingdonshire.
They also failed to win 3 Independent seats with a considerable Labour history in the past (2 in Newark and 1 in Stoke-on-Trent), which also fell to the Conservatives.
They failed to win 2 other seats where they were a significant contender ā Fortune Green in Camden was held by the Lib Dems and Murdostoun in North Lanarkshire was held by an Independent.
Labour did, however, pick up two seats. They regained Fellgate and Hedworth in Jarrow (South Tyneside), where they defeated the rogue Independent councillor comfortably and they ācame from nowhereā in Honiton St. Michaelās (East Devon) to defeat the Lib Dems, who were remarkably able to poll less than 5% there.
There is a clear regional pattern emerging ā with Labour defeated in 2 West Midlands and 5 East Midlands seats and defeated in the Essex new towns of Basildon and Harlow. By contrast they held on in North West, London and South Wales seats.
|
|
timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823
|
Post by timmullen1 on Jul 30, 2021 13:05:40 GMT
It is interesting to look at Labourās performance in the 38 contested by-elections during June and July (2 double vacancies, making 40 seats in all). Labour put up 36 candidates. They did not contest 2 seats in Somerset West and Taunton, Staines in Spelthorne and Harlech in Gwynedd. The first three suggest some kind of tacit support for the defending Lib Dem and Green Party candidates. Harlech is prime Independent territory. Labour also failed to nominate a candidate for Aber Valley in Caerphilly, which gave Plaid Cymru an unopposed return. Labour held 5 seats, which they were defending ā 3 in London (Grove Green, Lea Bridge and Tollington), Tyn-y-Nant in South Wales and Liscard in the Wirral. Labour lost 8 seats which they were defending (including 2 where the retiring councillor had gone Independent) ā 6 to the Conservatives in Sandwell, Bassetlaw, North East Lincolnshire, Leicester, Harlow and Basildon 1 to the Lib Dems in Chichester 1 to Independent in Huntingdonshire. They also failed to win 3 Independent seats with a considerable Labour history in the past (2 in Newark and 1 in Stoke-on-Trent), which also fell to the Conservatives. They failed to win 2 other seats where they were a significant contender ā Fortune Green in Camden was held by the Lib Dems and Murdostoun in North Lanarkshire was held by an Independent. Labour did, however, pick up two seats. They regained Fellgate and Hedworth in Jarrow (South Tyneside), where they defeated the rogue Independent councillor comfortably and they ācame from nowhereā in Honiton St. Michaelās (East Devon) to defeat the Lib Dems, who were remarkably able to poll less than 5% there. There is a clear regional pattern emerging ā with Labour defeated in 2 West Midlands and 5 East Midlands seats and defeated in the Essex new towns of Basildon and Harlow. By contrast they held on in North West, London and South Wales seats. Being slightly pernickerty itās an awful long time since Labour held any incarnation of that Stoke seat, the resigning councillor had been there for over 20 years, and to keep the majority down to 10 in an area (Penkhull village) thatās naturally quite Conservative, was a decent result. |
|
|
|
Post by John Chanin on Jul 30, 2021 13:56:42 GMT
A real musical chairs week- all 5 elections producing a change of hands, nobody able to defend. Sign of the times? Somebody can probably tell me, but it does feel like the percentage of seats changing hands has increased significantly recently. I think there is, as previously noted, a general swing against the party that is currently forming the administration in all councils ( Basildon is an exception last night) because I would argue that itās pretty difficult and unusual for a council to be popular. The Conservative strategy (or perhaps I should say the Osborne strategy) of deliberately blaming local authorities for declining services which they have ensured by slashing the budgets, has proved highly successful. Local councils get the blame. Of course this includes Conservative run councils, but Conservatives at national level have never cared tuppence about local government, and few of their MPs have served as councillors. |
|
|
|
Post by andrew111 on Jul 30, 2021 14:20:40 GMT
Yes, but only those two were caused by the resignation of individuals who had been personally re-elected just weeks earlier. One might ask why Labour were unable to capitalise though. They held the seat as recently as April 2017.. |
|
|
|
Post by andrewp on Jul 30, 2021 14:34:14 GMT
|
|
Toylyyev
Mebyon Kernow
CJ Fox avatar
Posts: 1,067
|
Post by Toylyyev on Jul 30, 2021 14:55:12 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by evergreenadam on Jul 30, 2021 16:06:48 GMT
It is interesting to look at Labourās performance in the 38 contested by-elections during June and July (2 double vacancies, making 40 seats in all). Labour put up 36 candidates. They did not contest 2 seats in Somerset West and Taunton, Staines in Spelthorne and Harlech in Gwynedd. The first three suggest some kind of tacit support for the defending Lib Dem and Green Party candidates. Harlech is prime Independent territory. Labour also failed to nominate a candidate for Aber Valley in Caerphilly, which gave Plaid Cymru an unopposed return. Labour held 5 seats, which they were defending ā 3 in London (Grove Green, Lea Bridge and Tollington), Tyn-y-Nant in South Wales and Liscard in the Wirral. Labour lost 8 seats which they were defending (including 2 where the retiring councillor had gone Independent) ā 6 to the Conservatives in Sandwell, Bassetlaw, North East Lincolnshire, Leicester, Harlow and Basildon 1 to the Lib Dems in Chichester 1 to Independent in Huntingdonshire. They also failed to win 3 Independent seats with a considerable Labour history in the past (2 in Newark and 1 in Stoke-on-Trent), which also fell to the Conservatives. They failed to win 2 other seats where they were a significant contender ā Fortune Green in Camden was held by the Lib Dems and Murdostoun in North Lanarkshire was held by an Independent. Labour did, however, pick up two seats. They regained Fellgate and Hedworth in Jarrow (South Tyneside), where they defeated the rogue Independent councillor comfortably and they ācame from nowhereā in Honiton St. Michaelās (East Devon) to defeat the Lib Dems, who were remarkably able to poll less than 5% there. There is a clear regional pattern emerging ā with Labour defeated in 2 West Midlands and 5 East Midlands seats and defeated in the Essex new towns of Basildon and Harlow. By contrast they held on in North West, London and South Wales seats. I agree, Labourās problem regions are clear for all to see. They are slipping further in the Midlands and Essex where the Conservatives seem to have captured a decent proportion of Labourās vote in post industrial and white working/lower middle class areas. However only time will tell if it lasts. The economy has been propped up by government cash and the NHS is creaking. Furthermore these areas are most at risk of job losses from further automation. |
|
|
|
Post by middleenglander on Jul 30, 2021 16:14:06 GMT
It is interesting to look at Labourās performance in the 38 contested by-elections during June and July (2 double vacancies, making 40 seats in all). Labour put up 36 candidates. They did not contest 2 seats in Somerset West and Taunton, Staines in Spelthorne and Harlech in Gwynedd. The first three suggest some kind of tacit support for the defending Lib Dem and Green Party candidates. Harlech is prime Independent territory. Labour also failed to nominate a candidate for Aber Valley in Caerphilly, which gave Plaid Cymru an unopposed return. Labour held 5 seats, which they were defending ā 3 in London (Grove Green, Lea Bridge and Tollington), Tyn-y-Nant in South Wales and Liscard in the Wirral. Labour lost 8 seats which they were defending (including 2 where the retiring councillor had gone Independent) ā 6 to the Conservatives in Sandwell, Bassetlaw, North East Lincolnshire, Leicester, Harlow and Basildon 1 to the Lib Dems in Chichester 1 to Independent in Huntingdonshire. They also failed to win 3 Independent seats with a considerable Labour history in the past (2 in Newark and 1 in Stoke-on-Trent), which also fell to the Conservatives. They failed to win 2 other seats where they were a significant contender ā Fortune Green in Camden was held by the Lib Dems and Murdostoun in North Lanarkshire was held by an Independent. Labour did, however, pick up two seats. They regained Fellgate and Hedworth in Jarrow (South Tyneside), where they defeated the rogue Independent councillor comfortably and they ācame from nowhereā in Honiton St. Michaelās (East Devon) to defeat the Lib Dems, who were remarkably able to poll less than 5% there. There is a clear regional pattern emerging ā with Labour defeated in 2 West Midlands and 5 East Midlands seats and defeated in the Essex new towns of Basildon and Harlow. By contrast they held on in North West, London and South Wales seats. I am not sure one contest in the Merseyside hinterland enables any regional conclusion to be drawn. |
|
|
|
Post by yellowperil on Jul 30, 2021 18:31:26 GMT
I too was looking back at the results over the last couple of months and what has struck me is less the rather complex party patterns (though on balance Labour has probably least to crow about) but the individual performances, good and bad, by the candidates regardless of party. Of course you can always will get some freak local results that don't go with the national picture, but it seems to me both the scale and frequency of these freaks in these last few weeks have been something else. Some of those at least can be traced directly to an exceptionally good candidate (Labour in Honiton, for instance) and others rather the opposite (the Indy in South Tyneside and the Tory in Norfolk this week being among the more extreme examples). And it's not just the candidates- the party machines (all of them) seem to be working brilliantly in some places and are non-existant in others, and not always where you would expect strengths and weaknesses to lie- I do wonder if in part it's a pandemic/lockdown effect.Actually I' m not too surprised by the Lib Dems in that way- we have always been a party which is very effective when things are going right, but very dependent on a few key people who make it all work and if suddenly they're not there everything collapses very quickly. It's obvious to me the same applies to our friends in the Greens- but I now get a distinct impression it is sometimes happening to Labour and the Tories too.
|
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,925
Member is Online
|
Post by The Bishop on Jul 31, 2021 9:12:31 GMT
A real musical chairs week- all 5 elections producing a change of hands, nobody able to defend. Sign of the times? Somebody can probably tell me, but it does feel like the percentage of seats changing hands has increased significantly recently. I think there is, as previously noted, a general swing against the party that is currently forming the administration in all councils ( Basildon is an exception last night) because I would argue that itās pretty difficult and unusual for a council to be popular. South Tyneside was, of course, another. Labour have been in unbroken power there from 1979, latest Tory control in Basildon just since May  |
|
