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Post by Deleted on Mar 3, 2013 21:02:20 GMT
www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2013/mar/03/andrew-mitchell-european-commissionerYou have to say Mitchell has not exactly killed this and looks almost certain we may get one 6 months or so before a GE 2010 Conservative Andrew Mitchell 27,303 54.0 +1.4 Labour Robert Pocock 10,298 20.4 -5.5 Liberal Democrat Richard Brighton 9,117 18.0 +1.4 BNP Robert Grierson 1,749 3.5 N/A UKIP Edward Siddall-Jones 1,587 3.1 -1.8 Green Joe Rooney 535 1.1 N/A Majority 17,005 33.6 Turnout 50,589 67.9 +5.2 Conservative hold Swing +3.4 sorry about the formatting but note the swing against Labour was not as great as nearby seats and Rob Pocock is Labours first Sutton councillor. A fair few LD votes there as well with a close third ...UKIP's base about the same as Eastleigh but think Sutton's demographics are different (without checking).
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Post by Deleted on Mar 3, 2013 21:06:58 GMT
Utter flim flam of the usual Sunday newspaper padding.
For a start, we need to have the 2014 Elections, and there's no chance of the Conservatives wanting a by-election in a UKIP target six months before the general election.
We'll nominate a Peer.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 3, 2013 21:07:26 GMT
even in 1997 a whopping tory majority
The 1997 general election
Norman Fowler, Conservative 27,373 52.2%
Alan York, Labour 12,488 23.8%
Jim Whorwood, Liberal Democrat 10,139 19.3%
D Hope, The Referendum Party 2,401 4.6%
This is not eastleigh in any way.
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Post by Andrew_S on Mar 3, 2013 21:09:54 GMT
UKIP could overtake the LDs but might have trouble getting more votes than Labour even in the best of circumstances. No chance of the Tories losing the seat IMO.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 3, 2013 21:13:53 GMT
Mitchell fits a lot of what the Tories would want though. No matter about a by election it is safe for them, I have no doubt of that.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 3, 2013 21:15:52 GMT
Mitchell fits a lot of what the Tories would want though. What do you mean? |
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Post by Deleted on Mar 3, 2013 21:16:58 GMT
Utter flim flam of the usual Sunday newspaper padding. For a start, we need to have the 2014 Elections, and there's no chance of the Conservatives wanting a by-election in a UKIP target six months before the general election. We'll nominate a Peer. I wonder if it will even be a Conservative. The Tory party is so Eurosceptic these days that there are probably few of them who would want the job, even with all the perks. I have long suspected that it could be a good exit strategy for Clegg if they're still hovering below 10% in the polls. I know that our PR-handling has been "jelly across a see-saw" of late, but Clegg accepting a Commissioner post before 2015 would be akin to my foul up! It would be an utter disaster for him, and for us. |
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Post by Deleted on Mar 3, 2013 21:18:53 GMT
Mitchell fits a lot of what the Tories would want though. What do you mean? David Davis Ally Payback for 'gategate' Well known eurosceptic said to have done well with ID portfolio and go on well with other countries allows a parachute to a safe seat (not sure that would be sensible) before a GE |
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Post by Deleted on Mar 4, 2013 0:01:57 GMT
The aggregate votes for the four wards which comprise the Sutton Coldfield constituency in the May 2012 local elections were:
Con 11288 52.4%
Lab 7240 33.6%
Grn 1680 7.8%
LD 1332 6.2%
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Mar 5, 2013 11:44:52 GMT
The prospect of a Sutton Coldfield by election fills me with dread. I can think of a couple of people who would be very interested in being the UKIP candidate and both would be a disaster.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 5, 2013 11:55:54 GMT
"UKIP CAMPAIGNER LABELS CANDIDATES 'DISASTROUS'" - Exclusive to all blogs.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 5, 2013 12:08:45 GMT
I am not so sure that this would be such a good seat for UKIP, although a lot of the Tories I know in this area are very Euro-Sceptic. The UKIP-leaners would be even less keen on doing anything to make this a seat where Labour could "sneak through the middle" which, if Rob Pocock could be tempted to stand (no means certain), would be a possibility.
Also, given the fact that Neil Hamilton and his like would love a chance at a seat like this, I would sympathise with Richard Allen.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Mar 5, 2013 12:31:41 GMT
Rob Pocock stood in 2010, so it is at least distinctly possible he would do so in any by-election.
If he does, then the chances of Labour being squeezed a la Eastleigh are surely close to zero.....
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Post by Deleted on Mar 5, 2013 12:46:19 GMT
Rob Pocock stood in 2010, so it is at least distinctly possible he would do so in any by-election. If he does, then the chances of Labour being squeezed a la Eastleigh are surely close to zero..... Rob has stood for the last three elections, it is inconceivable anyone else would stand. Also his policy of semi autonomy for Sutton is gaining a lot of ground and he is gaining from that. (Tory councillors very quiet on it, I speculate under Tory Brum orders as without Sutton, Birmingham could never be a gain) UKIP would have to stand and fight the fight, even if a Eurosceptic tory was picked then UKIP have no choice but to fight it properly or else what are they for ? |
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Post by Deleted on Mar 5, 2013 13:57:21 GMT
I am sure that UKIP would stand and put up a fight, I just doubt that it would have the impact of an Eastleigh. Labour's results here in the 2011 and 2012 locals emphasise the fact that they are the clear challengers here now and I think the local Conservative voters would be less inclined to take a punt on UKIP if they thought it would let Labour in through the middle.
This doesn't ignore the fact that Rob Pocock is locally popular with normal Tory voters.
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Post by thirdchill on Mar 5, 2013 14:07:08 GMT
The prospect of a Sutton Coldfield by election fills me with dread. I can think of a couple of people who would be very interested in being the UKIP candidate and both would be a disaster. It's probably a shame for UKIP that neither of their previous two by-election candidates are really a possibility. Both women were strong candidates who performed well. The thought of Neil Hamilton standing..... the less said about that the better. |
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Post by Deleted on Mar 5, 2013 14:18:09 GMT
The thought of Neil Hamilton standing..... the less said about that the better. No - it would be glorious!!!!! |
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Post by Deleted on Mar 5, 2013 14:20:56 GMT
The thought of Neil Hamilton standing..... the less said about that the better. No - it would be glorious!!!!! I want to hear ALL THE THINGS! |
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Post by Deleted on Mar 5, 2013 16:19:59 GMT
I am sure that UKIP would stand and put up a fight, I just doubt that it would have the impact of an Eastleigh. Labour's results here in the 2011 and 2012 locals emphasise the fact that they are the clear challengers here now and I think the local Conservative voters would be less inclined to take a punt on UKIP if they thought it would let Labour in through the middle. This doesn't ignore the fact that Rob Pocock is locally popular with normal Tory voters. in certain areas he is ... however the gap is so large between tory and labour that I think Tory voters could still go UKIP and keep a Tory MP. However there is a sizeable and stable LD vote (LD's used to be second until 97) which will feel the squeeze and where would they go ? |
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Mar 5, 2013 16:22:38 GMT
in certain areas he is ... however the gap is so large between tory and labour that I think Tory voters could still go UKIP and keep a Tory MP. However there is a sizeable and stable LD vote (LD's used to be second until 97) which will feel the squeeze and where would they go ?
To the pub to drown their sorrows? |
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