As I mentioned in my previous post in this thread, the Green Party got more votes than the LibDems here last May. Could this happen in a parliamentary by-election?
There was a swing to Labour here in 2001, when Mr. Pocock first stood as a candidate - but it was probably down to the loss of Sir Norman Fowler's incumbency. Sir Norman, of course, was known for pointing out how he would have been one of the few Tory MPs left (if not the only one left) had some of the by-election projections in the 1992-1997 Parliament translated into general election votes.
There is no doubt in my mind that Andrew Mitchell has hardly created good will for him. in 2010 when he should have seen a massive increase in vote share, it was modest and especially compared to nearby Erdington it was very poor.
If the Tories here select the right candidate if Mitchell left would not be an issue and an easy hold. IF they pick a parachute or a duff one, they could be shocked by the loss in vote share (but not a defeat).
Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Mar 5, 2013 17:30:04 GMT
The new Commission is due to begin its work on 1 November 2014, although that is subject to approval by the European Parliament which has sometimes been delayed if one of the nominees is controversial.
There don't seem to be any formal rules disqualifying someone from being a member of a national Parliament and a Commissioner, as there are now for Members of the European Parliament, but in practice no-one can do both jobs. A byelection should be called for a vacant seat within three months of the vacancy arising, although that period can be extended if it is a major holiday period.
In theory, if there is a slight hold-up in the swearing-in of the new Commission, and a vacancy is not declared until the new year, then I think the Conservatives could try holding it out until the dissolution. David Taylor died on Boxing Day in 2009 and no byelection was held there.
Given the UKIP performance, given Sutton coldfield would see a Labour and a UKIP squeeze (some parts should be good for UKIP at the moment) I note the talk of Mitchell stepping down next year has cooled...
the last thing Cameron can afford is to lose a seat like Sutton or even get close to losing it. I believe if there was a by election in the next month there and IF Rob Pocock was selected for Labour you could see one of the biggest by election shocks.
of course you do ... I think if she was picked (would not be) then the Villa supporting Tories would go UKIP depending on the quality of the candidate and would have to be local I think to combat Pocock ...