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Post by andrew111 on Jul 23, 2021 11:32:25 GMT
I take the general point about local government byelection turnouts- I'm sure we all would. There is nothing unusual about a turnout just under 30% - in fact it might be seen as "quite good"in the local context. On the Fortune Green result, I think the local celebrity comment is a bit off, given her years as the local ward member before her recent celebrity. She featured on a TV programme where all the usual execrable sentimentalist bilge about Our Heroes On Our NHS Defeating Killer Disease could have been milked for all it's worth. That's why I wouldn't have voted for her Yes, nearly dying of Covid was just not "on message" |
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Post by rcronald on Jul 23, 2021 11:38:35 GMT
Thank you! It is crystal clear that Labour is in a bad shape in Leicester East. (but in my opinion not in a bad enough state to actually lose the seat) Though they did lose it in 1983 to the ghastly Peter Bruinvels Probably traumatized the people for a generation or two! 😂 But in all seriousness,the demographics of the seat are very different today. But I would not be surprised if this would be a Labour leaning marginal in the long term. (15-30 years) |
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Post by grahammurray on Jul 23, 2021 11:39:22 GMT
I take the general point about local government byelection turnouts- I'm sure we all would. There is nothing unusual about a turnout just under 30% - in fact it might be seen as "quite good"in the local context. On the Fortune Green result, I think the local celebrity comment is a bit off, given her years as the local ward member before her recent celebrity. She featured on a TV programme where all the usual execrable sentimentalist bilge about Our Heroes On Our NHS Defeating Killer Disease could have been milked for all it's worth. That's why I wouldn't have voted for her Other than that she would have definitely got your vote, I suppose. |
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Post by rcronald on Jul 23, 2021 11:41:57 GMT
Fortune Green: Lib Dem - 1,197 (46.7%) Labour - 849 (33.1%) Conservative - 518 (20.3%) Very good result for us Did not expect a rise in the Tory & LD vote at the same time at all. |
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
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Post by Chris from Brum on Jul 23, 2021 11:44:30 GMT
She featured on a TV programme where all the usual execrable sentimentalist bilge about Our Heroes On Our NHS Defeating Killer Disease could have been milked for all it's worth. That's why I wouldn't have voted for her Other than that she would have definitely got your vote, I suppose. Mike is developing a long list of reasons not to vote for people and parties, "featured in a TV programme" being just the latest. He will soon have closed off all options to vote for anybody at all. And then we might reasonably ask what he's doing on a forum called "Vote UK". |
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Post by Merseymike on Jul 23, 2021 11:47:01 GMT
She featured on a TV programme where all the usual execrable sentimentalist bilge about Our Heroes On Our NHS Defeating Killer Disease could have been milked for all it's worth. That's why I wouldn't have voted for her Yes, nearly dying of Covid was just not "on message" No need to make a TV programme about it. People die of illnesses every day. |
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Post by Merseymike on Jul 23, 2021 11:49:06 GMT
Other than that she would have definitely got your vote, I suppose. Mike is developing a long list of reasons not to vote for people and parties, "featured in a TV programme" being just the latest. He will soon have closed off all options to vote for anybody at all. And then we might reasonably ask what he's doing on a forum called "Vote UK". I know you would love to see the back of me, but that would of course always make me more determined to stay. I don't think I could have made it any clearer that as things stand,I won't be voting, and why. One can be an interested observer while concluding that there is no positive reason to vote for anything currently on offer. |
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Post by Merseymike on Jul 23, 2021 11:49:57 GMT
She featured on a TV programme where all the usual execrable sentimentalist bilge about Our Heroes On Our NHS Defeating Killer Disease could have been milked for all it's worth. That's why I wouldn't have voted for her Other than that she would have definitely got your vote, I suppose. No pro lockdown party will be getting my vote. |
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
Posts: 9,732
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Post by Chris from Brum on Jul 23, 2021 11:54:33 GMT
Mike is developing a long list of reasons not to vote for people and parties, "featured in a TV programme" being just the latest. He will soon have closed off all options to vote for anybody at all. And then we might reasonably ask what he's doing on a forum called "Vote UK". , but that would of course always make me more determined to stay. I don't think I could have made it any clearer that as things stand,I won't be voting, and why. One can be an interested observer while concluding that there is no positive reason to vote for anything currently on offer. It's no skin off my nose whether you stay or go, but your unremittingly negative attitude to politics in general these days doesn't do much to enhance the debate. Maybe take a break and come back in a month or two? Others have done this. |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Jul 23, 2021 11:56:05 GMT
Mostly it tells us it was a local by-election with an above average turnout for local by-elections.. But turnouts like that say so much more about politics and disengagement from it. Most voters couldn't be bothered. Turnouts like this have been commonplace in local by-elections for decades. |
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Post by andrew111 on Jul 23, 2021 12:02:02 GMT
Fortune Green: Lib Dem - 1,197 (46.7%) Labour - 849 (33.1%) Conservative - 518 (20.3%) Very good result for us Did not expect a rise in the Tory & LD vote at the same time at all. The Tories tried, whereas in the 2018 London elections, I suspect they were trying elsewhere in Camden. Plus the Labour Party told Tory voters they were only 80 votes from winning. Waters were therefore muddied. |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Jul 23, 2021 12:04:36 GMT
Did not expect a rise in the Tory & LD vote at the same time at all. The Tories tried, whereas in the 2018 London elections, I suspect they were trying elsewhere in Camden. Plus the Labour Party told Tory voters they were only 80 votes from winning. Waters were therefore muddied. Not slack?  By the way, can we now expect some silence from Labour over "misleading" Lib Dem two horse race claims ? |
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Post by listener on Jul 23, 2021 12:09:50 GMT
I have just spoken to my friend in Fortune Green, who tells me he was knocked up by the Lib Dems around 11 am, voted at lunchtime and was knocked up again by the Lib Dems at 3 pm. He voted at Emmanuel Chuch, where he encountered Lib Dem and Con tellers, but no Labour tellers.
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Toylyyev
Mebyon Kernow
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Post by Toylyyev on Jul 23, 2021 12:11:05 GMT
The Tories tried, whereas in the 2018 London elections, I suspect they were trying elsewhere in Camden. Plus the Labour Party told Tory voters they were only 80 votes from winning. Waters were therefore muddied. Not slack? By the way, can we now expect some silence from Labour over "misleading" Lib Dem two horse race claims ? *preempts argument over two percent swing for sake of heavenly peace* |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jul 23, 2021 12:15:15 GMT
I have just spoken to my friend in Fortune Green, who tells me he was knocked up by the Lib Dems around 11 am, voted at lunchtime and was knocked up again by the Lib Dems at 3 pm. He voted at Emmanuel Chuch, where he encountered Lib Dem and Con tellers, but no Labour tellers. This may be telling tales out of school but the school of thought in the Labour Party is that it's far more efficient to have polling day volunteers going round on GOTV than to have them sat at the polling station taking numbers, even if it means some time is wasted going to people who have already voted. If there are immobile volunteers happy to sit on the polling station then fine, but don't tie up anyone who could be knocking on doors. |
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timmullen1
Labour
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Post by timmullen1 on Jul 23, 2021 12:17:24 GMT
I know you would love to see the back of me, but that would of course always make me more determined to stay. I don't think I could have made it any clearer that as things stand,I won't be voting, and why. One can be an interested observer while concluding that there is no positive reason to vote for anything currently on offer. It's no skin off my nose whether you stay or go, but your unremittingly negative attitude to politics in general these days doesn't do much to enhance the debate. Maybe take a break and come back in a month or two? Others have done this. And during your sabbatical spend the time out of your Ivory Tower and talking to people who have worked/are working on Covid wards, and then maybe, whilst retaining your stupidity you might develop human decency. Clearly you would have preferred the NHS let Ms Jirira die than pull 18 hour shifts, with inadequate PPE, trying to save her life. |
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Post by WestCountryRadical on Jul 23, 2021 12:23:00 GMT
It might be a stupid question but are we absolutely sure that the Con and Lab reported numbers in 2019 were the right way around? Not a stupid question, I strongly suspected that was what happened, but I bow to November_Rain 's superior knowledge |
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Post by andrew111 on Jul 23, 2021 12:24:15 GMT
I have just spoken to my friend in Fortune Green, who tells me he was knocked up by the Lib Dems around 11 am, voted at lunchtime and was knocked up again by the Lib Dems at 3 pm. He voted at Emmanuel Chuch, where he encountered Lib Dem and Con tellers, but no Labour tellers. This may be telling tales out of school but the school of thought in the Labour Party is that it's far more efficient to have polling day volunteers going round on GOTV than to have them sat at the polling station taking numbers, even if it means some time is wasted going to people who have already voted. If there are immobile volunteers happy to sit on the polling station then fine, but don't tie up anyone who could be knocking on doors. If you have the resources to knock on the doors of all your probables more than once, then it is perhaps worth it. You get some data on relative turnout which can induce panic or complacency. However if you don't have the resources to do anything about it, then there is no point having that data. |
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Post by andrew111 on Jul 23, 2021 12:24:59 GMT
The Tories tried, whereas in the 2018 London elections, I suspect they were trying elsewhere in Camden. Plus the Labour Party told Tory voters they were only 80 votes from winning. Waters were therefore muddied. Not slack? By the way, can we now expect some silence from Labour over "misleading" Lib Dem two horse race claims ? No |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 23, 2021 12:30:01 GMT
That's a stonking win for us, and a very good result for the residents in North Somerset. The 'rainbow alliance' council that took over in 2019 are proving to be genuinely popular, and show how Tory administrations that were as dreadful as the previous one had been can be defeated and kept at bay. It also shows how, in what became a head to head between ourselves and the Conservatives (the Labour vote was always going to fall away after 2019's high), we can easily defeat them in areas where the demographics suggest otherwise, building on the respect we've built up over 30 years of representation in the ward. That said, purely from a psephological view, it would have been fascinating to see what result might have occurred had the Lib Dems also stood. My guess is that we would still have topped the poll fairly easily, and second place may have been close between them and the Tories, but that can only be speculation, as we will never know. Also, a great result for us in Staines as well, a very different place to Congresbury. As andrewteale said in his preview, once we get in we can be hard to dislodge... Whilst I don’t know the area, are you sure that the council are ‘ genuinely popular?’. I’ve posted on another thread that given the reduction in funding, can any council now do enough things to be genuinely popular? When they have replaced an unpopular administration, they might be less unpopular. I see in my own area a Conservative administration that was pretty bad voted out in 2019 and replaced by a Lib Dem one, which I think is a bit better. I undoubtedly think they are less unpopular but popular- Defitnely not. The local paper and local sites are still full of ‘ why has that development taken ages’, ‘ the traffic is chaos, blame the council’, ‘ why are we getting more and more houses’, ‘ why don’t we have a theatre’, ‘x town are getting more than us’, ‘ why aren’t you getting us more shops’, ‘ councillors are only it in for themselves’ etc etc etc. Everything is the councils fault, no matter which party is in charge around here. My local council is pretty popular because despite the cuts they've found ways to raise money and therefore keep the leisure centres open, fulfil statutory requirements, keep the youth centres etc. and continue funding most services |
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