Merseymike
Independent
Posts: 40,440
Member is Online
|
Post by Merseymike on Jul 23, 2021 11:01:25 GMT
Re: Congresbury & Puxton by-election - you would think there wasn't one on! The Green candidate has been campaigning online, but nothing from Labour or the Tories. Not even the local CLP page is telling people in the area to vote for our candidate. Without saying too much, I know there are huge problems in our CLP but come on! It does not sound as if the Greens had to campaign very hard in Conglesbury... The argument for always putting up a candidate even if only a paper one is that if you don't then people end up getting out of the habit of seeing your party there and so are less likely to vote for you in a national election - which I do get, having lived in wards like that in the past. |
|
iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,435 
|
Post by iain on Jul 23, 2021 11:02:26 GMT
|
|
Merseymike
Independent
Posts: 40,440
Member is Online
|
Post by Merseymike on Jul 23, 2021 11:04:17 GMT
Also tells us labour are perhaps expecting a not so good result. I thought in his present mood , Merseymike would be wanting a Labour defeat. I think he may be claiming the 70% not voting as "his", a common tactic from those out of sorts with all the parties but not really a justifiable approach to local elections. Not in the least. I simply think elections where most people don't vote say something about the nature and health of "politics" and that was the point I was making. Right now I'm in the strange (for me) position of disliking available options across the board so it's much more observing from the outside. The Leicester result isn't good for Labour, though. Fortune Green appears to be more the case of replacing a local minor celebrity with another. I certainly wouldn't have voted for that particular LibDem! |
|
|
|
Post by samdwebber on Jul 23, 2021 11:05:56 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by andrew111 on Jul 23, 2021 11:06:04 GMT
Mostly it tells us it was a local by-election with an above average turnout for local by-elections.. But turnouts like that say so much more about politics and disengagement from it. Most voters couldn't be bothered. Mostly they say that people don't notice it is polling day because it is not all over the news. And true, voting is not at the top of their priority list. In this election it is clear that three Parties mounted significant campaigns and in my observation "differential turnout" is very much overestimated as an excuse. (it can be a factor if one party campaigns much more strongly) |
|
iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,435
|
Post by iain on Jul 23, 2021 11:06:38 GMT
Fortune Green:
Lib Dem - 1,197 (46.7%)
Labour - 849 (33.1%)
Conservative - 518 (20.3%)
Very good result for us
|
|
andrewp
Non-Aligned
Posts: 9,612
Member is Online
|
Post by andrewp on Jul 23, 2021 11:06:51 GMT
It does look as though Labour threw in the towel, that's for sure. Tories were up by an expectable amount given they were on about 27% in the polls in May 2019. Labour were also on under 30% though, so they should also be up in all the By-elections this week, other things being equal Even in the 1995 high water mark Labour only got 27% in 1995 in Congresbury , so the 32% in 2019 was clearly exceptional in what wasn’t a great set of local elections for Lab. Obviously 2019 was the only year without a Green candidate in that ward. It might be a stupid question but are we absolutely sure that the Con and Lab reported numbers in 2019 were the right way around? |
|
Merseymike
Independent
Posts: 40,440
Member is Online
|
Post by Merseymike on Jul 23, 2021 11:07:28 GMT
But turnouts like that say so much more about politics and disengagement from it. Most voters couldn't be bothered. Mostly they say that people don't notice it is polling day because it is not all over the news. And true, voting is not at the top of their priority list. In this election it is clear that three Parties mounted significant campaigns and in my observation "differential turnout" is very much overestimated as an excuse. (it can be a factor if one party campaigns much more strongly) That wasn't the point I was making, though. Purely about low turnouts which make any result questionable in terms of all the guff about mandates etc. That applies to any party. |
|
andrewp
Non-Aligned
Posts: 9,612
Member is Online
|
Post by andrewp on Jul 23, 2021 11:08:42 GMT
Fortune Green: Lib Dem - 1,197 (46.7%) Labour - 849 (33.1%) Conservative - 518 (20.3%) Very good result for us Changes from 2018 LD +10.2% Lab -2.7% Con +1.8% |
|
|
|
Post by November_Rain on Jul 23, 2021 11:14:10 GMT
Tories were up by an expectable amount given they were on about 27% in the polls in May 2019. Labour were also on under 30% though, so they should also be up in all the By-elections this week, other things being equal Even in the 1995 high water mark Labour only got 27% in 1995 in Congresbury , so the 32% in 2019 was clearly exceptional in what wasn’t a great set of local elections for Lab. Obviously 2019 was the only year without a Green candidate in that ward. It might be a stupid question but are we absolutely sure that the Con and Lab reported numbers in 2019 were the right way around? I can confirm both those numbers were correct in 2019, as I watched the votes being counted. She really did whip the Tory. I represented the candidate on her behalf whilst she was away in Spain on the day of the voting. I do feel that the bounce in 2019 was due to no Green candidate standing and it was sure luck. Yes there's a chance we could have done a 'progressive alliance' with the Greens and we are partners on the local council, but everything is a bit haphazard on a local level with Labour. |
|
|
|
Post by November_Rain on Jul 23, 2021 11:15:28 GMT
It does not sound as if the Greens had to campaign very hard in Conglesbury... The argument for always putting up a candidate even if only a paper one is that if you don't then people end up getting out of the habit of seeing your party there and so are less likely to vote for you in a national election - which I do get, having lived in wards like that in the past. That's so true and living in an unwinnable Labour ward, it's just nice to have someone to vote for. I do see value in paper candidates especially for those who want to stand and do a low-risk campaign. |
|
|
|
Post by raskolnikov on Jul 23, 2021 11:18:19 GMT
I wonder if Labour lost due to dawn butler going round the area saying that labour were telling lies by stating that the tories were in 2nd place and just behind Labour?
|
|
|
|
Post by andrew111 on Jul 23, 2021 11:19:32 GMT
Britain Elects (@britainelects) Tweeted: Congresbury and Puxton (North Somerset), council by-election result: GRN: 64.5% (+64.5) CON: 29.3% (+15.7) LAB: 6.2% (-25.8) Green GAIN from Liberal Democrat. No LDem (-54.4) as prev. That's a stonking win for us, and a very good result for the residents in North Somerset. The 'rainbow alliance' council that took over in 2019 are proving to be genuinely popular, and show how Tory administrations that were as dreadful as the previous one had been can be defeated and kept at bay. It also shows how, in what became a head to head between ourselves and the Conservatives (the Labour vote was always going to fall away after 2019's high), we can easily defeat them in areas where the demographics suggest otherwise, building on the respect we've built up over 30 years of representation in the ward. That said, purely from a psephological view, it would have been fascinating to see what result might have occurred had the Lib Dems also stood. My guess is that we would still have topped the poll fairly easily, and second place may have been close between them and the Tories, but that can only be speculation, as we will never know. Also, a great result for us in Staines as well, a very different place to Congresbury. As andrewteale said in his preview, once we get in we can be hard to dislodge... Well, in two seats where the Lib Dems gave you a free run, you won. In one seat where you did not stand (in Camden, where Sian Berry is a councillor, so was it deliberate for some reason?), we won. In Dover you put up a candidate who got 9% and we lost 9%. In two other places where we were both also rans, the Lib Dem vote held up, and the Green vote went down considerably. My conclusion is that to win a local election, Lib Dems and Greens fish in the same pool and can both hurt each other to the benefit of LAB or Con if we campaign hard. |
|
|
|
Post by listener on Jul 23, 2021 11:19:33 GMT
The comfortable Lib Dem win in Fortune Green appears to reflect the withdrawal of a Green Party candidate this time, who polled 9.2% last time.
|
|
|
|
Post by tonyhill on Jul 23, 2021 11:19:54 GMT
Sometimes it's so nice to be wrong.
|
|
Merseymike
Independent
Posts: 40,440
Member is Online
|
Post by Merseymike on Jul 23, 2021 11:20:56 GMT
Even in the 1995 high water mark Labour only got 27% in 1995 in Congresbury , so the 32% in 2019 was clearly exceptional in what wasn’t a great set of local elections for Lab. Obviously 2019 was the only year without a Green candidate in that ward. It might be a stupid question but are we absolutely sure that the Con and Lab reported numbers in 2019 were the right way around? I can confirm both those numbers were correct in 2019, as I watched the votes being counted. She really did whip the Tory. I represented the candidate on her behalf whilst she was away in Spain on the day of the voting. I do feel that the bounce in 2019 was due to no Green candidate standing and it was sure luck. Yes there's a chance we could have done a 'progressive alliance' with the Greens and we are partners on the local council, but everything is a bit haphazard on a local level with Labour. Quite obviously the absence of a Green. In an area with a strong Green tradition and presence, their absence would inevitably lead to an increase in the Labour vote |
|
|
|
Post by yellowperil on Jul 23, 2021 11:21:17 GMT
I thought in his present mood , Merseymike would be wanting a Labour defeat. I think he may be claiming the 70% not voting as "his", a common tactic from those out of sorts with all the parties but not really a justifiable approach to local elections. Not in the least. I simply think elections where most people don't vote say something about the nature and health of "politics" and that was the point I was making. Right now I'm in the strange (for me) position of disliking available options across the board so it's much more observing from the outside. The Leicester result isn't good for Labour, though. Fortune Green appears to be more the case of replacing a local minor celebrity with another. I certainly wouldn't have voted for that particular LibDem! I take the general point about local government byelection turnouts- I'm sure we all would. There is nothing unusual about a turnout just under 30% - in fact it might be seen as "quite good"in the local context. On the Fortune Green result, I think the local celebrity comment is a bit off, given her years as the local ward member before her recent celebrity. |
|
Merseymike
Independent
Posts: 40,440
Member is Online
|
Post by Merseymike on Jul 23, 2021 11:23:45 GMT
Not in the least. I simply think elections where most people don't vote say something about the nature and health of "politics" and that was the point I was making. Right now I'm in the strange (for me) position of disliking available options across the board so it's much more observing from the outside. The Leicester result isn't good for Labour, though. Fortune Green appears to be more the case of replacing a local minor celebrity with another. I certainly wouldn't have voted for that particular LibDem! I take the general point about local government byelection turnouts- I'm sure we all would. There is nothing unusual about a turnout just under 30% - in fact it might be seen as "quite good"in the local context. On the Fortune Green result, I think the local celebrity comment is a bit off, given her years as the local ward member before her recent celebrity. She featured on a TV programme where all the usual execrable sentimentalist bilge about Our Heroes On Our NHS Defeating Killer Disease could have been milked for all it's worth. That's why I wouldn't have voted for her |
|
andrewp
Non-Aligned
Posts: 9,612
Member is Online
|
Post by andrewp on Jul 23, 2021 11:24:17 GMT
Britain Elects (@britainelects) Tweeted: Congresbury and Puxton (North Somerset), council by-election result: GRN: 64.5% (+64.5) CON: 29.3% (+15.7) LAB: 6.2% (-25.8) Green GAIN from Liberal Democrat. No LDem (-54.4) as prev. That's a stonking win for us, and a very good result for the residents in North Somerset. The 'rainbow alliance' council that took over in 2019 are proving to be genuinely popular, and show how Tory administrations that were as dreadful as the previous one had been can be defeated and kept at bay. It also shows how, in what became a head to head between ourselves and the Conservatives (the Labour vote was always going to fall away after 2019's high), we can easily defeat them in areas where the demographics suggest otherwise, building on the respect we've built up over 30 years of representation in the ward. That said, purely from a psephological view, it would have been fascinating to see what result might have occurred had the Lib Dems also stood. My guess is that we would still have topped the poll fairly easily, and second place may have been close between them and the Tories, but that can only be speculation, as we will never know. Also, a great result for us in Staines as well, a very different place to Congresbury. As andrewteale said in his preview, once we get in we can be hard to dislodge... Whilst I don’t know the area, are you sure that the council are ‘ genuinely popular?’. I’ve posted on another thread that given the reduction in funding, can any council now do enough things to be genuinely popular? When they have replaced an unpopular administration, they might be less unpopular. I see in my own area a Conservative administration that was pretty bad voted out in 2019 and replaced by a Lib Dem one, which I think is a bit better. I undoubtedly think they are less unpopular but popular- Defitnely not. The local paper and local sites are still full of ‘ why has that development taken ages’, ‘ the traffic is chaos, blame the council’, ‘ why are we getting more and more houses’, ‘ why don’t we have a theatre’, ‘x town are getting more than us’, ‘ why aren’t you getting us more shops’, ‘ councillors are only it in for themselves’ etc etc etc. Everything is the councils fault, no matter which party is in charge around here. |
|
|
|
Post by justin124 on Jul 23, 2021 11:27:33 GMT
Thank you! It is crystal clear that Labour is in a bad shape in Leicester East. (but in my opinion not in a bad enough state to actually lose the seat) Though they did lose it in 1983 to the ghastly Peter Bruinvels |
|
