Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 23, 2021 10:00:34 GMT
As always local issues are often important and invisible to outsiders, but I do wonder whether Labour’s selection of a Muslim candidate was unhelpful in this area. Possibly, but the 2011 census doesn't suggest that's the likeliest reason. The ward's demographics in the 2011 census are fairly mixed (33% Christian; 21% Hindu, 15% Muslim, 7% Sikh; 44% white British; 40% Asian) and judging by the surnames, the ward has previously elected Hindu, Muslim and Sikh Labour councillors with no great variation in the number of votes each received. I expect this ward will now be majority asian and perhaps to have a Hindu plurality. Worth noting that Vaz was always part of the "Hindu" faction of Leicester Labour (yes I know he is a Catholic) and a lot of his machine switched to the Tories in 2019, some of them declining to leave the Labour Party beforehand. While the ward has indeed elected Muslim Labour councillors before, I suspect also the circumstances of a by election might have the effect of highlighting certain tensions that are lower profile in a normal election. |
|
|
|
Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jul 23, 2021 10:00:55 GMT
Fortune Green turnout 29.8%.
|
|
|
|
Post by olympian95 on Jul 23, 2021 10:00:56 GMT
Lots of positive noises from the LDs at the Camden count |
|
ColinJ
Labour
Living in the Past
Posts: 2,126
|
Post by ColinJ on Jul 23, 2021 10:01:08 GMT
Turnout in Fortune Green reported to be 29.8%.
|
|
|
|
Post by andrew111 on Jul 23, 2021 10:07:36 GMT
Lots of positive noises from the LDs at the Camden count and Tories "glum". Evidently their local twitter message, oft repeated, of a "two horse race" was a failure of equine identification... |
|
iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,435 
|
Post by iain on Jul 23, 2021 10:13:22 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by andrew111 on Jul 23, 2021 10:13:37 GMT
Hah hah!
Oh, snap!
|
|
Merseymike
Independent
Posts: 40,438
Member is Online
|
Post by Merseymike on Jul 23, 2021 10:19:32 GMT
Fortune Green turnout 29.8%. 70% of electors did not bother to vote. That says as much as anything the result may tell us |
|
Merseymike
Independent
Posts: 40,438
Member is Online
|
Post by Merseymike on Jul 23, 2021 10:22:12 GMT
Maybe true, but I’m not sure two opposition councillors, from Party’s that have a mixed record of working together, is an altogether large dent in the one party state. Actually it could be very significant for two reasons as long as they can work together: 1) There is now a mover and a seconder for any opposition business. So had the ruling Labour group wanted to silence discussion on any topics, they could have refused to second any awkward motions / call-ins etc. And they no longer have this power. 2) Having 2 opposition Councillors gives them group status, rights to sit on committees in law, and to be formally recognised in a way a sole Councillor does not. And this will all give opposition activity a lot more oxygen which will interest local journalists who must dread covering one party states. You mean LibDem and Tory will create a technical group? That could easily backfire, though. |
|
|
|
Post by andrew111 on Jul 23, 2021 10:23:35 GMT
Fortune Green turnout 29.8%. 70% of electors did not bother to vote. That says as much as anything the result may tell us Mostly it tells us it was a local by-election with an above average turnout for local by-elections.. |
|
|
|
Post by raskolnikov on Jul 23, 2021 10:28:20 GMT
70% of electors did not bother to vote. That says as much as anything the result may tell us Mostly it tells us it was a local by-election with an above average turnout for local by-elections.. |
|
|
|
Post by raskolnikov on Jul 23, 2021 10:29:53 GMT
Also tells us labour are perhaps expecting a not so good result.
|
|
|
|
Post by yellowperil on Jul 23, 2021 10:42:49 GMT
Also tells us labour are perhaps expecting a not so good result. I thought in his present mood , Merseymike would be wanting a Labour defeat. I think he may be claiming the 70% not voting as "his", a common tactic from those out of sorts with all the parties but not really a justifiable approach to local elections. |
|
johng
Labour
Posts: 4,850
|
Post by johng on Jul 23, 2021 10:45:43 GMT
You misunderstand. I am not saying the Tories should/ could have gained it, but falling 16% is just bad.
Perhaps it's not the 'nicest' area being mainly made-up of council/ex-council stock, but this is firmly Cardiff commuter belt and many residents would orientate to Cardiff as their main shopping area versus Pontypridd to the north. Oh, and it's just next door to Tory held Llantwit Fadre.
The whole of RCT is pretty much Cardiff commuter territory nowadays. Which is why it takes longer to get to Cardiff of a morning from where I grew up (the top end of the Rhondda Fach) than it does where I live now (West Glos). Whole place is smot up with traffic every morning and evening. A470 is one big crawl. Whether or not the Metro will alleviate this remains to be seen. Oh I know.
In a previous life, I commuted to Cardiff myself. Trains were generally standing room only south of Pontypridd and crowded south of, say, Radyr.
I know more than a couple of people who commute down the A470 daily from north of Brecon.
I hope Metro will encourage more people off the roads and onto trains. A four hourly schedule (12 to Ponty) is essentially walk-up service and the proposed shortened journeys will no doubt help.
The difference between Beddau and Maerdy is that for many (non-commuters) in Maerdy, Cardiff is a big day out whereas it's the main local centre for many in Beddau. The Conservative Party isn't really eating away at Labour's vote in the north of RCT like it is in the south. I can't be bothered to look for the figures, but I think a much higher percentage of the workforce in Beddau will commute to Cardiff too.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 23, 2021 10:47:02 GMT
Britain Elects (@britainelects) Tweeted: Congresbury and Puxton (North Somerset), council by-election result: GRN: 64.5% (+64.5) CON: 29.3% (+15.7) LAB: 6.2% (-25.8) Green GAIN from Liberal Democrat. No LDem (-54.4) as prev. That's a stonking win for us, and a very good result for the residents in North Somerset. The 'rainbow alliance' council that took over in 2019 are proving to be genuinely popular, and show how Tory administrations that were as dreadful as the previous one had been can be defeated and kept at bay. It also shows how, in what became a head to head between ourselves and the Conservatives (the Labour vote was always going to fall away after 2019's high), we can easily defeat them in areas where the demographics suggest otherwise, building on the respect we've built up over 30 years of representation in the ward. That said, purely from a psephological view, it would have been fascinating to see what result might have occurred had the Lib Dems also stood. My guess is that we would still have topped the poll fairly easily, and second place may have been close between them and the Tories, but that can only be speculation, as we will never know. Also, a great result for us in Staines as well, a very different place to Congresbury. As andrewteale said in his preview, once we get in we can be hard to dislodge... I actually think the Greens have the strongest campaign machine of any major party, they just don't often have enough activists to use it to its full effect |
|
|
|
Post by andrew111 on Jul 23, 2021 10:55:50 GMT
Re: Congresbury & Puxton by-election - you would think there wasn't one on! The Green candidate has been campaigning online, but nothing from Labour or the Tories. Not even the local CLP page is telling people in the area to vote for our candidate. Without saying too much, I know there are huge problems in our CLP but come on! It does not sound as if the Greens had to campaign very hard in Conglesbury... |
|
Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
Posts: 9,732
|
Post by Chris from Brum on Jul 23, 2021 10:56:42 GMT
Re: Congresbury & Puxton by-election - you would think there wasn't one on! The Green candidate has been campaigning online, but nothing from Labour or the Tories. Not even the local CLP page is telling people in the area to vote for our candidate. Without saying too much, I know there are huge problems in our CLP but come on! It does not sound as if the Greens had to campaign very hard in Conglesbury... It does look as though Labour threw in the towel, that's for sure. |
|
Merseymike
Independent
Posts: 40,438
Member is Online
|
Post by Merseymike on Jul 23, 2021 10:57:49 GMT
70% of electors did not bother to vote. That says as much as anything the result may tell us Mostly it tells us it was a local by-election with an above average turnout for local by-elections.. But turnouts like that say so much more about politics and disengagement from it. Most voters couldn't be bothered. |
|
|
|
Post by andrew111 on Jul 23, 2021 11:00:39 GMT
It does not sound as if the Greens had to campaign very hard in Conglesbury... It does look as though Labour threw in the towel, that's for sure. Tories were up by an expectable amount given they were on about 27% in the polls in May 2019. Labour were also on under 30% though, so they should also be up in all the By-elections this week, other things being equal |
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,925
|
Post by The Bishop on Jul 23, 2021 11:00:58 GMT
As for Labour, well I think 2019 was a fluke in the ward and it seemed like it was just a 'paper candidacy' for us there. Not ONE THING to say Vote Labour on the CLP social media pages. The local CLP is a mess anyway, and I'm hoping the main people who are the problem are one of those being expelled. I know we were chanceless, but I'd want some fight. Informal "progressive alliance" in operation? |
|
